Also this. As of today, he is only missing 2019, and will probably have a full winter and spring to go back into game shape. Maybe he even makes it to fall league. If he does this in late March, it destroys all of 2019. It also means no chance at fall league, winter ball, or anything else like this. On a less conservative side, it would also take out his spring training, pushing his return into May or June. On a worse side scenario he could miss all of 2019 AND a decent amount of 2020.