southsider2k5

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 03:48 PM) PECOTA does it based on individual players past performance and creates all of those player projections FIRST, then creates the team projections by conglomerating the info. How teams are run don't factor into the results, which is why they can't account for us having the best pitching coach and training staff in the game. This is my point exactly. By not factoring in things like that, there are biases against certain franchises. If you aren't adjusting player performance for franchise input, you are missing out on key data points.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 03:42 PM) my point is, they're not fans, biased towards one TEAM over another. Depending on what sorts of franchises are out there, it could definitely be biased towards certain types of teams, meaning franchises that are run a certain way. The Sox seem to be one of those teams that usually gets under-predicted. If the bias were truly neutral, that should disappear over time, and not be reinforced.

@NicoleAuerbach: Whoa. Duke announces junior guard Rasheed Sulaimon has been dismissed from the Duke basketball program."

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 03:08 PM) Everyone else is basing their opinion on their own personal gut feeling about the team as a biased fan. These projections are completely unbiased and considered the best in the business amongst the entire baseball industry. How dare I subscribe to one over the other. Also I'm very excited about the team. I'm happy it's a much better team, and I think Hahn's done an amazing job. That doesn't mean they're winning the WS. That is completely not true. There had to be assumptions made in order to make the model. There are built in biases for sure.

The rats are literally fleeing Wrigley Field. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0129-story.html

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 02:40 PM) The AL Cy Young winner will probably be ahead of him as well. I don't have a Klu who you are talking about.

We are only Robin Ventura days away from Pitchers and Catchers reporting to spring training, and only Scotty Carroll days until opening day.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 02:22 PM) They don't mean *nothing* or they wouldn't exist. And BP wouldn't have the reputation it does. The reason White Sox fans feel like you do, is because the Sox consistently over perform their PECOTA, but the reason for that is Cooper and Schneider. We've had the least DL days in baseball for the last 15 years. That's what allows us to outperform the projections. Other teams don't have that. The problem is that the projections are neutral, while baseball is not. Luck happens. Some teams will have things go mostly right, while others will have things go mostly wrong. There will be at least one team in the ALC with 90 wins, and at least one with 90 losses. The prediction systems don't really account for stuff like that.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 02:05 PM) The 78 win projection from PECOTA needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The others in the division aren't so great either: Detroit 82 wins Cleveland 81 wins KC 72 wins Minnesota 70 wins They are right there. The underlying idea of Detroit being 4 games better than the Sox rings as fair to me.

T.J. Quinn ‏@TJQuinnESPN 5h5 hours ago Asked MLB official why Reinsdorf fought Manfred's election. A: "Because Rob wouldn't go down there to meet him and smoke his f----- cigars."

Jim Bowden ‏@JimBowden_ESPN 4m4 minutes ago Blue Jays and Ronnie Belisario have agreed on a minor league deal Belisario deal will pay him 1.7m if he makes team

The other thing to mention here is that if you are of the belief that the Sox have more money to spend, or should be sending prospects to trade for players to finish out the 25 man roster, it isn't all black or white. If the Sox leave themselves a scenario where they don't spend all of their resources, that now allows them to evaluate the team through April and May, identify what they believe will help the team the most, and then still have the flexibility to identify a player in another organization who can help them down the stretch. Part of baseball is the unknown happens a lot. It isn't a crazy scenario to envision at least one of the guys the Sox are counting on being a bust this year. Heck it is probably a likely scenario that at least one guy who is an assumption now, will bust. There is also a decent chance that someone comes out of no where to fill a hole shock on the team. If the teams blows all of its resources now, they won't maintain the flexibility to fix problems later.

QUOTE (LDF @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:30 PM) and what happen if Jeff S walks, Rodon is not the pitcher everyone thought he would be, Sale gets hurt again. there is many possibilities that can happen. the one constant is, this team, next yr can take that giant leap into the playoff. The odds of those scenarios happening are pretty darned close to zero. If they did happen, the franchise is pretty well screwed anyway.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:27 PM) I wonder if Alexei could still be available to a team like the Mets, who have a real need for SS. With Syndergaard in the wings, they could move a starter. But it would probably be Gee who's a 3 at best, imo. Maybe at the beginning of the winter a scenario like that could happen, but after this winter, the only chance Alexei leaves Chicago now is if the Sox flop this year.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 8m8 minutes ago Brandon Beachy’s agent, Rob Martin: “Brandon has decided not to sign a contract at this time. With each day his arm is getting stronger … “…and he’s feeling even more confident about his progress. Thus, he is going to continue with his throwing program and make a decision… …closer to spring training.“ Beachy, a free agent, is recovering from his second Tommy John surgery.

I can think of about one hundred million hang ups personally.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:03 PM) This team is not "one final piece" away. We have a few holes we could still use filled. That said, I'm very happy where the team is at compared to a couple months ago. For anyone who thinks we our, contrast our roster, and someone like Washington.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 11:57 AM) The only purpose of the minors is to help the MLB team win. This can be done by bringing the players to the MLB team or trading them to another team for proven players. Either way the players developed in the minors and left the minors to help the MLB team. The difference between the two is the cost of hte players on your major league roster. Kids are cheaper than the vets you trade them for.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 11:37 AM) He still had a lot more money to play around with than people were projecting. If the Sox are in the playoff race most of the season but just fall short, they'll add to the payroll. Hopefully the fans keep doing their part. That is the one way we know the Sox will continue to add.

Jay Zawaski ‏@JayZawaski670 4m4 minutes ago Dylan Olsen on waivers. Maybe Stan can fix another of his "huge mistakes" in letting him get away.

Writer argues that Philly should take a chance on Dayan. http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadel...rth-it-phillies

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 11:23 AM) If this team is not a winning team in 2015, how does it become a winning team in 2016 with the team having to commit $130 million+ to keeping Samardzija? You have a lot of young players growing up in that time, plus the addition of the top prospects at various points.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 11:14 AM) And once again, the Sox are a team that is set up better for the playoffs than they are for the regular season. So if we can sneak into a Wild Card spot, we'll be extremely dangerous. This is 100% true. Get into the playoffs and drop a starter, and this team looks a TON better.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 11:12 AM) I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox have a great bullpen, I also wouldn't be surprised if their pen is completely underwhelming outside of Robertson. If the bullpen is great we easily could have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball so who knows. It could be great, sure... Again if we have some luck. Personally I would bet on some regression from Duke and Jennings coming over from the NL. Odds are also pretty good that someone out there just falls on their face because well, bullpens. I am sure you'll also see a big surprise out there as well.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 11:11 AM) I'm expecting improvement from both Danks and Noesi. Noesi, because he'll be with Coop in spring training where they have more time to work on things. Danks, because he's another year away from surgery. He had 20 quality starts last year, which is fine from a back of the rotation starter. So if he cuts down on the terrible starts, and benefits from a better offense and bullpen, he can still be an asset. A +100 run diff is bold, but realistically 680 RS and 610 RA is more what I expect. This gives Pythagorean expectation of almost exactly 90 wins. A 100 run differential projects about 93.5 wins.