Jack Parkman

At this point, it seems like the Sox still can't identify talent. Those who didn't trust this front office to pull it off seem correct. I Had been a huge fan of both Moncada and Giolito, but it seems as if the Nationals and Sawx are laughing to the bank. They both look like AAAA fodder currently.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Apr 12, 2018 -> 08:07 PM) the velocity drop wouldn't be too concerning but FFS where is all this "stuff" he was supposed to have? I gotta say that Parkman thread comparing his stuff too Floyd's looks absolute bonkers wrong right now. As I said, he looks like James Shields. I watched his spring start vs the Cubs and this looks like a completely different guy. I don't know what happened but he seems to have lost everything when he flew north. This guy looks worse than Shields if that is possible. He was back to mid 90s with the heater, was showing the wipeout curve and hitting his spots. I honestly don't know what happened to him.

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 12, 2018 -> 07:51 PM) Was his velocity better to start last year? Don't think so Even last season toward the end there were 94-95 mph pitches mixed in there. They were rare, but they existed. IMO 23 year old pitchers don't go from averaging 95 to averaging 91 without being injured.

QUOTE (Tony @ Apr 11, 2018 -> 04:02 PM) They just are WILD takes based on no actual evidence, aside from "a hunch" No, I read Fangraphs and listen to BP podcasts often. I read lots of scouting reports. Some of them say things that most people don't want to hear. With Eloy and Kopech, the scouting reports are wildly different. The variance of outcomes is so high. Will they probably be MLB players, yes. Some think Eloy is a DH now, and others think Kopech won't throw enough strikes to start. When I see wildly different scouting reports on guys, I take all of them into account and this is what I see. I have seen very few reports that suggest Eloy isn't anything but a butcher in the field.

QUOTE (TheTruth05 @ Apr 11, 2018 -> 04:01 PM) C'mon man, this is a bad take. Let the kid pitch a full year in MLB before u say he's an automatic closer. I'm not saying those who think he couldn't be a good starter or even an ace are wrong, but those thinking he's an automatic starter are overly optimistic. There is very significant reliever risk there.

QUOTE (Tony @ Apr 11, 2018 -> 03:58 PM) Based on what? Based on the fact he overthrows and wants to throw every fastball 100 mph.

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 11, 2018 -> 03:51 PM) But is a all star 2b really that huge of a piece? Kopech is the guy who can make or break it, IMO If he turns into "Cano with speed" as he was advertised when he got traded to us, yes. 25-35 HR, .280-300 avg, 25-35 SB. That is a star. That is what I hope he is eventually. I don't think Kopech is anything more than a closer anyway. I don't think he has the starter's mentality.

QUOTE (Tony @ Apr 11, 2018 -> 03:47 PM) That is very much false. It would be very bad. But if Eloy is a franchise changing type piece, saying "It wouldn't matter what Eloy does" just isn't true. Eloy would have to be the second coming of Frank to be a franchise changing piece. It is pretty hard for a DH to be that guy, and I think 2-3 seasons into his career that is what Eloy will be.

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 11, 2018 -> 03:43 PM) I'm sure his exit velocity on the bunt would have been great Fathom are you completely convinced Moncada is not an MLB player already? he only has had 300 ABs. When he starts to approach 700 ABs and he's still struggling like this then I'll get worried. He's the one position player they have to hit on, IMO. If they missed on Moncada they're doomed. At that point it wouldn't matter what Eloy does.

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 11, 2018 -> 03:31 PM) You mean Davidson isn't a cleanup hitter? The K rate on most of these guys is sickening I think Moncada will be fine eventually, but really the only position players the Sox have that belong on a major league roster are Abreu, Anderson, and Moncada. I've been convinced Avi sucks for a while, and I guess I was right about that. I started to change my mind a little bit with his hot spring and start to the season, but this homestand seems to confirm the fact that Avi sucks.

I'm not so sure they are hitting s***ty as much as they are bad at baseball.

Make that 3/33. Sox quickly approaching fun-bad level. The amount of failure is so high it is beginning to become funny.

QUOTE (Capn12 @ Apr 11, 2018 -> 02:56 PM) What value does Adam Engel bring to a MLB caliber team? Not so sure that he brings value to a AAA team either. Maybe AA at best. He's organizational filler that somehow made his way to the big league roster.

QUOTE (Blackout Friday @ Apr 11, 2018 -> 02:51 PM) I expected them to lose a lot of games, but it’s possible to lose and still be entertaining, if that makes any sense. This has been hard to watch. I thought they'd win high 70s this season, but that it all depended on the youngins. There was a huge variance where I thought they could win anywhere from 62-85 games, but it is looking much closer to that 62 number than 82.

With the way the Sox are hitting currently, falling behind at any point seems insurmountable.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Apr 2, 2018 -> 05:33 PM) From someone in the tech security world, its better to put next to nothing on social media. The people who decide to post and argue on facebook is really one of the most moronic things you can do. It really is a double edged sword. I used to rarely if ever post on my Facebook and LinkedIn accounts, until I asked a couple employers why I wasn't getting jobs and one of the things they said was lack of social media presence. It really has made life so much more complex than it needs to be.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Apr 10, 2018 -> 03:34 PM) what are the rays doing having this guy go into the high 110+ pitches today? They only have four starters because their MLB ready pitching has been decimated by season ending injuries.

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 10, 2018 -> 03:03 PM) If you're referring to Fulmer, he's been bad since 2016 everywhere he's gone No I'm referring to everyone. Fulmer, Moncada, Giolito, Lopez, Rodon, etc. With all of them it seems like there will be games where they look like a future star and games where they look like a complete bust.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 10, 2018 -> 02:58 PM) Reading a game thread only confirms that White Sox fans can't handle an actual rebuild. Which is an indictment on the fanbase. If the fanbase can't handle a rebuild, we get more stretches like 2013-16 which is the blueprint for perpetual mediocrity.

Repeat after me: player development is not a linear function. There are zero guarantees that these guys come up and become stars right away. That is more rare than your typical player development function which is more like a sinusoidal function. Full of peaks and valleys.

Now that it looks like Bruce Rondon is up for the foreseeable future, I'm now waiting for the Rondon/Rodon confusion to occur. It's going to be so annoying.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Apr 9, 2018 -> 07:26 AM) I think the days of a 70 FV fastball projection are done with and his ability to become a legit TOR starter will depend on his secondary offerings. Other than the curveball, those pitches have come a long way. And while I didn?€™t get to see him a ton in spring training, he finally demonstrated that plus curveball on a consistent basis in his start against the Cubs. I do disagree with the notion that he can completely abdandon his curve and a TOR starter. He?€™ll need to learn how to pitch without it at times and he seems to have enough quality offerings now to survive, but that curveball needs to be his biggest weapon if he wants to dominate on a consistent basis. I wouldn't be so quick to write it off, due to Floyd being able to get his fastball velo back eventually. Gio might not get his back, but I do expect him to gain some back. Not expecting him to average 91 forever. Have you seen Gio's slider when he breaks it out? It's wicked. Have you ever seen a breaking ball from him that looks like a 11-5 curve but is faster and a little less break? That is his slider. Read my addendum to why I think that Gio's curve has the potential to be better than Floyd's. It's really close and I think you can argue either way.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 9, 2018 -> 01:16 AM) I agree with most everything you wrote except Giolito having an advantage over Floyd's curveball. Potentially, sure. But the consistency isn't there yet with that pitch at the big league level. Granted, it's terrible weather in which to judge curveballs and sliders due to the difficulty gripping the ball, especially pitchers with smaller hands. Giolito's big advantage is his cerebral and thoughtful personality...and his ability to adapt/evolve. After Floyd's initial success in the late 2000's, he kind of stopped getting better. He plateaued, in other words. He started to look more like Javy Vazquez (inconsistent) than a front-line/ace caliber starter like he was for most of 2008. Giolito hasn't had nearly the minor league struggles, but he has taken a pretty significant to his prospect status in 18 months (going from the best RH MILB pitching prospect with a 95-98 MPH heater to a more pedestrian FB). The more recent articles about his "leverage" due to his body length (the ball getting on hitters faster, perception-wise) and spin rates and other issues related to Giolito have been pretty positive. Just want to get to early May or a warm weather stadium when we can start to see what he really has for this year (unless he's going through a dreaded dead-arm period out of ST.) (Not sure Hahn would appreciate your "spinning" his acquisition as a reclamation/change of scenery move.) If Giolito wasn't a change of scenery move, he most likely wouldn't have been available under any circumstances. OTOH, I struggled over who to give the advantage on for their curveballs. I think that in terms of fooling hitters, Giolito's curve has the potential to be better than Floyd's. Their curveballs are different, but each devastating pitches in their own right. I actually think given more evidence, Floyd's could end up being better but Giolito's has the potential to do so. We all remember Floyd at his major league peak so I tried to remember Floyd with the curve during his first full season. I looked at 3 factors: break(sharpness/lateness/inches of break) , getting called strikes, and swing and miss potential. I determined that Giolito's curve has better break, as well as swing and miss potential, but Floyd's curve had a better chance of getting called strikes with it. Between the two, Giolito has the better pitch per se, but Floyd may have had a better chance of it being usable in more of his starts. Mostly because a hitter doesn't have to worry about a pitch if the pitcher can't get it over the plate. I don't know if someone could have a breaking ball too good to be usable, because it fools umps as much or more than hitters, but if there was one it would be Giolito's curve. Based on the strike zone graphics he throws it for strikes more than one would think, but the break is so big, sharp and late that it fools umps into thinking it is low. Floyd's was more loopy and appeared to go up before going down. It didn't fool umps nearly as much as Giolito's curve does. Giolito's curve is also faster velocity wise than Floyd's was. Floyd's curve was 76-78 mph where Giolito's is 78-80. That also doesn't help things, as the ump has less time to recognize it has hit the zone. I decided at the end, that I'd grade the pitch based on the pitch itself rather than human factors. If I took the usability due to getting called strikes with it into account, I would have given the advantage to Floyd. But I concerned myself with what the pitcher himself could control. Also, Giolito comes across as a really bright kid, and probably is actually smart. Floyd always seemed like he was your prototypical dumb jock. That helps things immensely in Giolito's favor, especially with learning how to pitch.

As a self-proclaimed pitching junkie, I feel compelled to write this post. I'd like feedback from my fellow posters on my info. Giolito and Floyd had a lot of similarities before and after their trade to the Sox. I will attempt to do a comparison of the issues they faced upon their trade to the Sox. Everyone likes to make this comparison, because it is actually pretty spot on. At the end of going through their repertoires, I will give their initial and peak scouting grades based my eye test. With Giolito, I give my future scouting grades based on if he follows a similar development path to Floyd. Similarities before being traded to the Sox: 1. Fastball(2 and 4 seam) Floyd and Giolito had elite velocity for their time. Floyd, as a top prospect, had a mid-90s fastball. Giolito had a mid-upper 90s fastball. By the time they got traded to the Sox, they were both averaging around 91, and that continued when they both first got called up for a September cup of coffee, and through Floyd's first full season. What gives me hope for Giolito, is by his 2nd full season with Coop, Floyd had returned to the elite velocity that made him the top pitching prospect in the game. Jack Parkman's scouting grades(based on peak velocity): Floyd:50/65 Giolito: 55/70 2. Curveball Both pitchers had/have among the best curveballs one has ever seen. A Bert Blyleven level yakker. Somehow, they both were such good curveballs that they not only fool hitters, but umpires too. Floyds was a little more loopy, so it was easier for an ump to see. Giolito's is even better, IMO. However, its break is so sharp, big, and late, and more of the 12-6 variety that it fools umps more than Floyd's did. Jack Parkman's scouting grades: Floyd: 60/70 Giolito: 65/75 Now for the 2 huge differences between Floyd and Giolito's arsenal that I think will lead to Giolito being an ace and not the enigma that Floyd was: 3. Changeup Floyd had a changeup that was more of a show me pitch than an out pitch. He had trouble throwing it for strikes, and when he did it got hit hard. Not a lot of break either. He could only fool hitters by speed and not location/movement. Giolito has a wicked changeup, that he can throw for strikes and fool hitters with both speed and movement. this pitch alone should separate Floyd and Giolito significantly. Jack Parkman's scouting grades: Floyd:40/40 Giolito :60/65 4. Slider Floyd had a slider that he could throw for strikes more reliably than his curveball, but it wasn't a sharp breaker and didn't have much movement. It fooled hitters because because it was almost the exact same speed as his change up but it actually had a little break. It also got hit hard when a hitter identified it. Giolito's slider is more than good enough to be a stand-alone breaking ball. It is a plus pitch in and of itself and he could ditch his curveball if he wanted and probably be fine. It has sharp break and good tilt(11-5 movement) and generates many swings and misses. This pitch is what puts Giolito's arsenal over the top, and among the best 4-pitch repertoires I've ever seen. Jack Parkman's scouting grades: Floyd: 40/45 Giolito:60/65 Conclusion: While the Fastball/Curveball similarities beg the comparison, it ends there because Giolito's change and slider are both significantly superior pitches to Floyd's change and slider. I believe that Giolito has the arsenal to completely ditch the curveball for a start if he's not commanding it or getting called strikes due to fooling the ump. If Floyd didn't have his curve going, he was a below average pitcher, while I think that Giolito could pitch to ace-level despite not having his curveball for a long stretch of starts, due to the high quality of his changeup and slider, provided his fastball returns to elite velocity in a similar trajectory to Floyd. I believe over time, Giolito will become primarily Fastball/Slider/Changeup, while experimenting with his curveball in the first couple innings to see if he can catch strikes with it. I do think that even if Giolito's fastball remains at 91-93, he can become a solid #2 or high end #3 because his arsenal of offspeed pitches is so good, and even at that speed he has enough spin to miss bats with his fastball. Overall, Giolito has a superior arsenal to Floyd, which is why I think he will not be as inconsistent as Floyd was. It may take a full season or so, but I think that patience is necessary with Giolito to reap the rewards. I ask my fellow posters to not be so quick to throw him under the bus. The reward could be huge. There is a reason why Giolito was once the top pitching prospect in the game, along with being as high as #3 overall on prospect lists. If everything goes right, he could be one of the best RHP in baseball. Think Kluber or Verlander.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 8, 2018 -> 11:12 PM) Seems the Sox stadium gun was slower, then...Lopez was 96-98 in his first start according to MLB At Bat. On the Sox feed Sunday, he was "just" 93-95, comparatively. Giolito was 88-92/93...Fulmer (DET) was consistently 94-95. I saw quite a few at 92 from Lopez after the 3rd. I think it has to do with pitchers mechanics breaking down in the cold.