Lillian

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 06:27 PM) Anyone in the org who has been named, Semien or Anderson, is a guy who could help us right now and in the long term. A qualifying offer pick, a 2nd rounder, has a very poor chance of even getting to AA, or even reaching as far as Semien has gotten. On top of that, our 2nd rounder this year is probably 4-ish years away. A 2nd rounder in 2017 is someone we might think about seeing in 2020-2021. This is not a help in rebuilding. A comp pick is a tiny value compared to a AA level minor leaguer or a guy who is close to reaching the big leagues. They're years away and if they were going to be present in the near future they'd be a first rounder. None of this makes a case to me about this being anything other than a huge rebuilding setback and a very poor idea. "We can spend the money next year" is accurate but it's just silly - why give up a guy who could contribute to our roster for 6 years for a sandwich pick and 1 year of a #3 pitcher if you're not 100% ready to compete this year? If we'd spent $70 million on Victor Martinez and $100 million on Hanley Ramirez to fill our corner OF spot, fine, Samardija would fit with that. That's "all in, we're winning this year". Instead, giving up guys we have long term control over for a sandwich pick, that's backwards. You make some good and valid points. I'm just saying that if you don't sign Samardjiza, at the end of this coming season, you have probably $20 million more to spend, than if you do sign him. Moreover, with him in the rotation this year, and the other 2 holes filled, one in the outfield and one more in the bullpen, I do feel that the Sox could compete in the wide open Central Division race. While Semien is a guy who could help now and long term, there are in house alternatives, who could also contribute at the same positions. If you keep Alexei another year or two, and use either Sanchez or Johnson at 2ND, you have plenty of young potential core, middle infielders to help now, and in the future. I do agree with you that withholding Anderson from the deal would be a prime objective.

Why are acquiring a pitcher, on a one year deal, in order to compete this year, and building for the future, mutually exclusive? Unless the Sox have to give up part of their core, going forward, in order to obtain their RH starter, how would they be jeopardizing their future? When Samardjiza turns down a qualifying offer, the Sox could simply take the draft pick, and use the money available then, to acquire another pitcher, if needed. I'm sorry, but I just don't see the inherent conflict between that strategy, and not jeopardizing the future. Please enlighten me, if I'm missing something.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 05:24 PM) I feel like you might be undervaluing Shark's value a bit. Two mid level prospects aren't going to get it done and neither will just Alexei, IMO. Perhaps you're right. Admittedly, I have no idea what Beane would accept. Moreover, I'm the one who feels that one year, with no contract extension is actually preferable to signing him long term. So, I'm not placing any value on him, but rather just asserting that one year would be fine with me. That said, what would you be willing to offer for one year of Samardjiza?

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 05:12 PM) Also just want to point out that the A's #1 and #3 prospects are short stops and if the trade is indeed centered around Alexei and Samardjiza then I doubt very seriously Anderson is involved. That's assuming Alexei and Samardjiza are the only big names being talked about. A possible trade could look like Reddick, Samardjiza + extension for Alexei, Semien and Montas? Don't you think that is an awful lot to offer? I much prefer Samardjiza, with no extension, for Semien and a lesser prospect, like Beck, or perhaps just Alexei. Montas could end up being Samardjiza's replacement, when he files for free agency, at the end of the season.

Regarding speculation that Reddick might be a desirable player to be included, I am not intrigued by his career .305 OBP. The Sox need something better than that, and while it wouldn't likely come in this suggested trade, there must be another, better player out there, whom could be acquired for some of that money, burning a hole in Hahn's pocket.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 04:57 PM) If Anderson is the guy in the deal, if there is a deal, and he becomes a good SS and Samardjia is around for one season and the Sox don't at least make the playoffs, it is a horrible trade. There are a lot of ifs. But if the Sox are willing to trade Anderson, there may be something more attractive than on year of SamArdzjia available. Doesn't hurt to float his name around and see what someone else may be willing to give you. Yes, as I said, whom they would have to give up is the big question mark?. However, I actually prefer the one year to extending him, for big money, and a long term obligation.

Putting aside, for a moment, the cost in players to acquire Jeff S., if he would ultimately get close to $20 Million per year, on a multi year free agent contract, why isn't it far more attractive to simply acquire him for one year, at approximately half of that? He's already 30, and at the end of the year, he becomes even less attractive, as a long term commitment. I'd prefer to have him for one year, at a far more affordable annual salary, without the risk of being stuck with a bad contract. At the end of the season, the Sox could make a qualifying offer, again for one more year, and receive a draft pick. They could then go back into the market, and see who else could be had. Why isn't that preferable to signing any 30 + year old pitcher to a big, long term contract? In other words, which would you rather have; a 30 year old starting pitcher at $10 million for one year, or that same pitcher, one year older, for 4 more years, at $20 million per year? Comparing the deal Beane made to acquire Samardjiza is not relevant, as he was acquired for a season and a half, during Oakland's playoff run. Now, he would be dealt with one year remaining, and Oakland may be back to a rebuild mode. The circumstances are not the same. I originally assumed that it might require dealing Alexei, to which most reacted negatively, asserting that such a move would fill one hole, while opening another. So, now we are talking about a deal that would net them this year's #2 or #3 starter, a right hander yet, and not create a hole at SS. If the Sox take on "Shark's" approximately $10 million arbitration salary, they would still have about $15 million to spend on an outfielder, and a closer. To reiterate, they could then stay within a projected $100 million payroll, with no long term commitments, and field a very competitive team. In the meantime, it gives some of the youth in the system more time to develop, and the front office would have a better idea of the team's needs for 2016. Then, there is still the outside chance that they could move Danks, who would be completely expendable with the Samardjiza's acquisition. Therefore, while the fact that he would be a mere one year rental would reduce the asking price, it could actually be more attractive, IMO. The question is; what would Beane take in exchange for one year of the "Shark"?

Now I'm confused. I thought that the big remaining "holes" were: RH starter, closer and another outfielder. If you fill the RH starter with Samardjiza, by trading Alexei, that does not use up any of the remaining $25 Million, which most estimate that Sox still have to spend. I can't believe that it would take more than that to add a closer and a corner outfielder, who can hit, and provide respectable defense. I don't think that 2016 has to be such a key consideration. As long as the Sox are not giving up key, core pieces going forward. Think of all of the fun we could have, again next off season, with a whole new "hot stove"! LOL

Sorry, I misspoke. I meant to say that the money saved on Alexei's salary, minus Samardjiza's arbitration salary, plus what they have already earmarked as available. I must admit that I did not, however, expect Samardjiza to get $8 to $10 Million in arbitration. Is that a realistic number? Nevertheless, I'd still consider that trade, primarily because I put a big premium on quality pitching at a reasonable salary, without a risky, long term obligation. The Sox have several middle infielders who appear ready for a shot at the Majors. I would think that one of them would be able to at least fill the SS void. He wouldn't have to be one of the best players on the team, but rather someone who could play solid defense, and bat at the bottom of the order.

What is wrong with Alexei for Smardjiza, straight up? The Sox save money this year. They don't have to make a risky long term commitment, on a pitcher. Next year, they may not need "Shark," and if they are still short a starter, perhaps there will be another pitcher available, who is similarly in his final contract year. A #2 or #3 starter, is arguably more valuable than an aging SS, even if he's a good one. Notice, I said good, not great. Just how good Alexei is, seems to be very debatable. Frankly, I thought that he was better than many on this board assert, but the larger point is that a starting pitcher, with Smardjiza's performance capabilities, is worth what Alexei normally produces. The big question is 2016. The Sox would then have neither Smardjiza, nor Alexei, when they could have had their $10 Million, 34 year old SS. (Actually, he will be turning 35 in September of 2016. Is that necessarily bad? Would they really want that much money tied up in an aging SS? If he were a DH, first baseman, or even a corner outfielder, pushing 35 might not be too old. However, at SS his range is likely not going to be more than average, at best. And, remember that while he is a good hitter, he is nothing special for $10 million. If he were not providing considerably better than average defense, at that point, there would probably be better options available, especially for the money. Between all of the options available within the organization, and players who might be available then, I'd take my chances on finding a replacement for Alexei. Anderson will likely be ready by 2016, unless his defense is still rough. In the meantime, we can all argue about who the SS would be this season. Providing they land another solid bat, to fill the other outfield hole, I'd personally prefer the best fielding SS available, and not worry much about his offense. However, having that solid RH starter represents the answer to one of this team's most glaring needs. He and Quintana could very well perform about the same, and provide two #2's, to round out our top 3 starters. Then, when Rodon arrives, you could have a staff that makes the Sox a serious contender. The money available after removing Alexei's $10 million, minus whatever "Shark" gets in arbitration, should be sufficient to land a solid hitting outfielder, with adequate defense, and even leave a little "change" left over, for another bullpen arm. Therefore, such a scenario just might be the way that the Sox put together a competitive team for this season, without having to go over their budget, and without giving up any of their young core, going forward.

The scenario in which the Sox could trade Danks for someone like Victorino, offers some distinct advantages: We clear some payroll, as Victorino is owed only one year at $13 Million versus Danks, who is owed 2 years at $14.25 Million Having filled the hole in the outfield, the Sox could then spend the rest of the money on a RH starter, and another bull pen arm. Keep Alexei, and you have a roster that could compete. Failing to acquire that free agent RH starter, R. H. could revisit trading Alexei, but for a starter instead of an outfielder. A "rental" wouldn't be a bad option. I like rental starters, as they don't require that risky long term contract. Injuries are simply all too common and often career ending for pitchers. By 2016, Rodon and Montas could both be in the rotation, and eliminate the need to sign someone to a long term contract. Who is the best RH starter, with one more year on his contract, who could fill the #2 or #3 spot in the rotation? The Shark comes to mind, but Samardzija isn't owed that much, as he is eligible for arbitration, and therefore may require that the Sox give Mr. Beane too much talent, in exchange for one year. Who else is out there? Perhaps someone with a big salary, and one year remaining on the current contract, would be better suited. The Sox have more money, than surplus talent.

I still think that the Dodgers are motivated to do 3 things: 1) Acquire a SS until Seager is ready 2) Break the logjam in their very crowded outfield, by moving a couple of veterans from the group of Crawford, Kemp and Ethier. 3) Reduce the payroll a little. That seems to be the least important factor I don't see them trading Pederson or Seager. Whether or not those objectives match up with what R. H. wants to do, or what we think he should want to do, is the question, isn't it?

That's pretty much the same contract Abreu signed, and this guy has not established himself, in Cuba, as anywhere near the hitter that Jose was. Big gamble, IMO.

If you watched Gillaspie hang out line drives, all over the park, especially when facing RHP, I don't see how you could conclude anything but that he was one of the best hitters on the club. I think those 60 some at bats that he had in the clean up spot, after Dunn was traded, really brought his numbers down. He had no business hitting there, and perhaps he was trying to do too much, with that kind of responsibility. He's not a power hitter, and had no business being asked to bat in that slot. My only concern with him is how lost he seems vs. lefties. Hopefully, he will improve in that circumstance. If he doesn't, unfortunately, he is a platoon candidate. His defense is an entirely different matter, and he definitely has lots of room for improvement there.

This article explains why Victorino temporarily stopped switch hitting, and the results: http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2014...er-stats-injury Very impressive!

Victorino is naturally right handed, and has hit LHP better in his career. Half way through 2013 he stopped switch hitting. I don't know if that was because of his back, or for some other reason. Does anyone have any insight into that issue. Is he expected to be 100% this year? If so, and the Red Sox would cover some of the salary, he could make a solid stop gap. I love guys playing in their contract year.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 08:41 PM) Ever since Quinary called you out for constantly suggesting LH bat for the Sox, I noticed this is a theme in just about every post of yours. In a perfect world, your logic would make perfect sense. But baseball isn't a perfect world, there are many variability that will negate your advantage. Starting with late game situations, do you really want to stack your team with players who are absolutely useless when the opposing team brings in a loogy? What about when your team faces a left handed starter, then you will have 3 regulars, LaRoche, Gillaspie, and say Ethier that have to be benched on that given day. There is a reason you didn't see the likes of those 3 guys competing for batting titles, they are bound to face lefties, which will regress their BA over time. The purpose of having LH in your lineup is to avoid teams from stacking pitchers with a specific handedness against you, but you do not have to do it to the extreme if you want to win games. I'd rather have reliable hitters who can consistently hit pitchers of either handedness, who you can rely on late in games, and who can stay on the field every game. At this point, I think the bigger need is defense for our LF. We already have a question mark in Avi in RF, we can't cripple ourselves by targeting a LH bat only guy like Either. If we can get a good fielder who also happens to be a good LH bat, great. But that LH bat shouldn't be our top priority at this point. It's a "theme" in my posts, because we are having a discussion about it. When the discussion is over, I'll be happy to change the subject. In the meantime, to continue the discussion, and address your specific comments: It's very difficult for an opposing team to counter all of the good LH hitters, with LOOGY's, late in the game. How many good LH Relievers do most teams have? Moreover, when it comes to the critical final inning, how many closers are left handed? The same argument that you're making could be applied to a team that is "stacked" with right handed hitters. If Avi performs up to expectations we have our RH hitters in Abreu and Garcia. At the moment we have 1 dangerous LH hitter in LaRoche. I do agree with you that ideally we could find either a switch hitting, good defensive outfielder, or at least one who hit acceptably well vs. LHP.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 05:00 PM) I wouldn't assume it's for lack of trying, though. OK. Then, let's try a little harder!!! We need one more potent LH bat, to fill the remaining OF slot.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 03:32 PM) I think that's how everyone already feels and has always felt though. People look at Eithier and have their worries because of many flags in many areas of his game. I think baseball teams in general have operated under the principle of "get guys who can mash RHP" forever. Maybe I don't understand your hypothesis. Yes, you would certainly think that would be the case. However, apparently our organization has not shared our embracement of this principle. We haven't had much left handed, potent hitting, in quite a while. I often think that this team was constructed upside down, with almost all Left handed pitchers, and almost all right handed hitters. It has always seemed very perplexing to me.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 02:28 PM) If there was any "tongue in cheek" to it, it was just because you asked someone to compile a list that I thought you had literally already compiled, haha. I'm sorry. No, you misunderstood me. Tongue-in-cheek, refers to my comment; "we have most of the good lefties". It's obviously not true that we actually have most of them. It just seems that way. That's what I meant by "tongue-in-cheek". So, now that we have clarified our intentions with these comments, what would be the best way to statistically examine my hypothesis? The hypothesis is; There are significantly more right handed pitchers, and they represent the vast majority of the pitches thrown in games. Therefore, employing hitters who are productive vs right handed pitchers, provides a generally more effective offense. The practical application of this principle is that, although a hitters composite stats may not be that impressive, if he is very good vs. RH pitching, he is going to be good in many more at bats, because he naturally doesn't face LH pitchers nearly as often. Of course, the ideal hitter is one who is good vs. all pitching. However, short of obtaining that ideal, I would prefer hitters who are good vs. RH pitching, over those who are relatively better vs. LH pitching. I'd appreciate all constructive comments, as this is a simple, but very important concept. A team is going to lose a lot of games, no matter how good they are. The objective is to be as effective as possible, for as much of the time as possible. Since RH pitching is by far the most common, it only makes sense that it is advantageous to have a lineup that is effective vs. that RHP. This is what has bothered me so much about the Sox having been so conspicuously void of any left handed offensive force in their lineup. Oh sure, we have Eaton and Gillaspie, but I'm talking about middle of the order hitters. Adam Dunn was a failure, and he was the only viable LH option, for the entire time he was in Chicago. Perhaps now some of you can understand why I want a player like Ethier to join LaRoche, in the heart of the order. Even if the team doesn't do that well vs. LHP, it's worth it to have a better chance to win in those majority of at bats and games, when facing RHP.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 01:39 PM) I wasn't being sarcastic, I feel like I've read posts from you where you illustrate that there aren't any strong left-handed starters in the Central, except for ours. No, but you're right about my having commented a few times that most of the good southpaws are on the Sox. Of course, it's a little "tongue-in-cheek".

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 11:13 AM) Do you really want Ethier now, after we just added a left handed hitter who rakes against RH pitching but who can't hit lefties? The short answer is YES. Look, it’s common wisdom that most hitters hit pitchers from the other side better. Since most of the good pitchers, and in fact, most pitchers, are right handed, there is an inherent advantage to a lineup consisting of several good left handed hitters. Therefore, yes, I'd love the Sox to be able to put a lineup on the field, on those typical days when they are facing a RH pitcher, that had Abreu, LaRoche, Garcia and Ethier hitting in the middle of the order. It's the same reason that I'm a little intrigued by the potential of Juan Diaz, who also seems to hit RHP pretty well, for a good defensive SS. If Alexei is traded, it will be interesting to see if he figures into the mix, for the SS competition.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 12:07 PM) I think you've made that list for us several times. Your sarcasm aside, no I haven't.

Would someone please provide a list of the good Left Handed starters in our Division? Without compiling such a list, my impression is that most of the good southpaws are on the Sox. Therefore, I still think we could use one more middle of the order type left handed bat. Ethier is still my favorite candidate, as he absolutely rakes vs RHP. I'd love to see him sit on days that a southpaw is starting for the other team, and have him available to pinch hit against a tough RH reliever, in the late innings. At any rate, if someone can provide that information, I'd be grateful. While you're at it, if you can list how many good LH relief pitchers there are, that would be interesting as well. Off hand, I would guess that the number of both LH starters and relievers, is very small.

No one really responded in depth to my request for some scouting information on Juan Diaz, and there seem to be some here who consider him nothing more than a "Minor League filler", and therefore of no interest, or consequence. Nevertheless, it's still worth trying to get some better insight into what kind of player he is, so here are some quotes from various sources: SS Juan Diaz (Age 24, AAA) - With legitimate prospects at the three lower full-season levels and Asdrubal Cabrera in Cleveland, it's going to be tough for Diaz to stick around in this organization long. He's a big guy, but still a decent to good defender at shortstop. His bat has been what's holding him back, but he's always been young for his level. Short Stop: This may surprise some...but Juan Diaz is my everyday SS. If you read scouting reports, everything written about this kid said that if his bat ever catches up to his glove, he's good enough to be a major league SS. Well, he's 23 years old and he hit .306/.342/.458 in Columbus this year. He's not as good as Asdrubal offensively, but he is much better defensively. He's not the long-term answer at short, but let's give him the season while guys like Rodriguez, Paulino, Lindor, etc. develop in the lower levels. Juan Diaz, ss, Indians ..... He's a plus defender who covers the gaps in Oct 2, 2014 - New Orleans' Juan Diaz (Marlins) has a plus arm he used to lead ... a two-year track record for strong performance and glowing scouting ... Scouts regard him as an above-average defender with a good arm and plus instincts Juan Diaz (SS- Akron) .966 PCT, 127 G, 172 PO, 391 AST, 20 E, 583 TC, 83 DP Diaz had a very solid year and was one of the most consistent defensive middle infielders in the Eastern League this year, and finished with the most assists and double plays in the league. He also went up to Triple-A Columbus and took over the shortstop duties in the playoffs and was unfazed by the pressure of the playoffs or by the call up itself. Phone call away: At 6-4, Juan Diaz looks more like a shooting guard than a shortstop, but he made his big-league debut last season and will open the year at Class AAA Columbus. He hit .306 (22-for-72) in a brief look at Columbus last year and the Indians believe the right-handed hitter is improving offensively. They think he can play defense in the big leagues right now, thanks to a strong throwing arm that helps him slow the game down. That's all I was able to find. Finally, I had posted this before, but note that vs. RHP, he hit .316 with an OBP of .338 and a SLG% of .483, in 348 at bats, last year at AAA. Unfortunately, he was terrible vs. LHP.