Lillian

I just submitted one of the most optimistic post, this board has seen in a while. Now, after reading this, it almost makes me want to say; "blow it up, and start a rebuild". However, after thinking more about it, I believe these projections to be unfairly pessimistic. One thing that is not taken into account is the fact that the whole team is so much better than last year. That should benefit everyone. It's not just that a vastly improved bullpen will preserve a lot of those games that the Sox threw away last season. Everyone in the lineup is better when playing with better hitters in front of them, and behind them. If this team does not contend for the Division title, I would expect that it would be because of injuries, not because the roster lacks quality players, as these projections seem to suggest.

Allow me to reiterate some things that I've recently posted in another thread: I have a feeling that Mr. Reinsdorf has not spent all of the money that he is willing to spend. The team payroll may be at around $112 Million, but they don't really have that much committed, longer term. Again, the only long term money that has been committed this off season is to Robertson. Samardjiza is a one year (so far), LaRoche is 2 years, Duke is 3 and now Melky 3 years. The core is all still either a ways from free agency, or signed to team friendly deals. If J. R. wants to go for it, he can't continue to spend like the mid market teams. He was willing to take the payroll up to around $130 Million, as recently as 2011. The revenues are higher, and teams are spending even more now. He isn't getting any younger, sees a division with no team uncatchable, and he has the nucleus of a group that isn't that far away. While Sale, Q., "Shark", Abreu, Robertson, LaRoche and Cabrera are in the fold, and Rodon coming, this may be his best shot at winning another World Series, or two, providing he is willing to take that payroll up to around $140 Million. We have seen the front office cry poor, in recent years, only to then spend beyond expectations. I just have a hunch that we may be at such a juncture again. Well, I'm hoping, anyway. I recently speculated that perhaps the thought process has been something like the following: Mr. Reinsdorf told the guys in the front office that he would let them take the payroll back up to around $100 Million, and then see what kind of a team they had assembled, and how close they were to building a real contender? Once having achieved that, he would keep an open mind about going over that mark, providing they had a real chance to grab a "ring". I always adhere to the principle that it's pitching that wins championships, and this team is now one more big RH starter from having the best pitching in baseball. That would be a very strong argument to present to the Chairman of the Board: "Mr. Reinsdorf, we believe that we are one piece away from having the most dominating pitching in our Division, our League, and all of baseball. If you are willing to spend the money to bring in Max Scherzer, we are confident that we can take "all the marbles". We have sufficiently upgraded the offense, to score enough runs to win, with our pitching. The bullpen is now solid, and should be able to preserve the wins that our dominating starters can earn. This may be an extraordinary opportunity to seriously contend, for the next 3 to 4 years." I think that they would have a good argument, and I wouldn't be surprised if J. R. would agree. In other words, as "Balta" suggests; first you put together all of the rest of the pieces, and then if that high priced free agent puts you over the top, you pull the trigger. Oh sure, there are still places that this team could upgrade, but no team is solid at every position. With that pitching, they would have enough other pieces to win. What team could compete with that rotation? Sale, Scherzer, Quintana and Samardjiza is as good of a balanced, dominating, 1 - 4 pitching staff as I can ever remember. By next year, Rodon should be a fixture, so that resigning Samardjiza would not be critical, and if he does stay you have the best pitching, projected out another 2 or 3 years. And finally, remember that these long term contracts can be moved, especially if they are constructed properly. Of course, that is providing the player doesn't get injured or suddenly lose his ability to perform. Why not offer Scherzer 7 years; the first 4 years at $30 Million per year, and the last 3 at $20 Million? That’s $180 Million, and makes the contract “movable,” in the later years, albeit with some cash likely thrown in. Well, K. W. said that they want "Sox fans to be able to dream again". That team would certainly have us all dreaming. More than that, it would give the rest of the League nightmares. So, to quote the "Hawk"; "Don't stop now, boys!".

Rosenthal, and a couple of Dodger beat writers are confident that Friedman still wants to move Ethier. Moreover, Ethier himself wants to be traded. The money is obviously the big obstacle. L. A. is reportedly interested in another arm for the rotation, even after acquiring McCarthy: "They need one more back-end starting pitcher, as talks for Cole Hamels have cooled and the Dodgers are not targeting elite free agents Max Scherzer or James Shields. They still want to move outfielder Andre Ethier." By Ken Gurnick / MLB.com | December 11, 2014 Many of us have speculated about a Danks for Ethier trade. Maybe that is still a possibility. If that happens, many of us have argued that the Sox would need to have a couple of RH hitters on the bench, for days that Gillaspie, Ethier and or LaRoche could use a break from hitting vs. LH pitching. Viciedo could help there, although he really hasn't hit lefties like he did when he first broke in. Nevertheless, his biggest weakness seems to be those low and away breaking balls from RH pitchers. Facing southpaws helps mitigate that flaw. We can only hope that he finally matures, and begins to figure it out. My biggest concern with Dayan is that he swings so hard, and so violently, that you have to wonder if he can ever be successful with that approach. The other question that such a trade raises is, who is the other bottom of the rotation starter? Noesi is ok as a 5TH, and maybe Montas will be called upon until Rodon is ready. Or, perhaps Rodon joins the rotation, right out of Spring Training. I don't see how he could be counted upon to give them 30 starts in his first year, but maybe splitting the starts with Montas would work. After all, he couldn't be expected to provide 30 starts either. I still dream of signing Scherzer.

Allow me to retract my suggestion of making a qualified offer to Victorino, should he be acquired. I didn't realize that it would require a price tag of $16 Million. I agree, that it wouldn't make sense to do that, as he would almost certainly take it, which would be a mistake for the Sox. Nevertheless, I'd take him for one year, at his current salary, if it didn't cost the White Sox any significant talent. The larger point is the desirability of someone like him, with only a year or two left on his contract, who might be able to be acquired, without sacrificing a draft pick, and might even net one, when he walked.

QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 05:30 PM) you do have a point about more players being avail. i do like Victorino, but his contract is something i really don't like. It's one year, who cares? And, again, if you make a qualifying offer, at the end of the season, you get a draft pick. I'd love a one year rental. Such a player would likely not cost much in trade "chips" either.

Regarding the need to fill the hole in LF, my suggestion is to resist the temptation to sign a free agent, such as Melky Cabrera. There are a few teams that have acquired additional outfielders, and now find themselves wanting to shed one from their roster. That list may grow, and offer someone whom the Sox could pick up in a minor trade. A guy like Victorino would be ideal, as he is not signed beyond this season. Of course, the prospect of Boston moving him, now that Cespedes has been traded, is diminished. I think that the organization is still hoping that Davidson will eventually emerge as a viable solution to the opening in Left. We don't need to seek a long term fix, and the money could be better spent elsewhere.

There is another way to look at a potential Scherzer signing. Let's assume that the Sox did sign Scherzer. Since Samardjiza is only signed for one year, at around $10 Million, at the end of the season he would have to decide whether to stay on the South Side, be part of a good chance to win a few World Championships, playing for his favorite team, close to home, or going for more money and signing somewhere else. If he is going to cost really big money, I would rather have it invested in Scherzer, who is the better of the two pitchers. The Sox would be in a much better bargaining position, when negotiating his extension, if Scherzer were on the staff. And, if Jeff walked, they would still have a great rotation with Rodon added, or get someone else. Look, the money that teams are spending on pitching means that if you really want a shot at a couple of Championships, you are going to have to spend. If J. R. wants that chance, I'm confident that he knows that it will cost him more than the current projected payroll. because of the pitching they already have, this team is really close to being able to win multiple World Series Rings, and you can be certain that Mr. Reinsdorf knows it. I understand all of this parity, and that so many teams can get into the playoffs, but dominating pitching is still the best weapon, if you want to win it all. Every team has a 5 man rotation, but most simply make do with the 4th and 5th starters, and hope to find a solid 1 - 3. That's a lot of games that they are not putting a really competitive team on the field. What kind of a chance would those teams have if the rested their 2 or 3 best hitters, every 4th and 5Th game, and went with bench players? It's understandable with the cost of pitching, but it's still a major obstacle to winning. The Sox would be in the rare and enviable position of having a great staff, 1 through 5, with Scherzer. Even with just an average offense, and respectable defense, they would have to be favorites.

Dombrowski says that they aren't talking to Scherzer, but I wouldn't be surprised if he returns to Detroit. That's another reason why I want the Sox to sign him. If he joins our rotation, the Sox would be consensus picks to win the Division. If Detroit signs him, they are still the team to beat. The Sox don't have a single big long term, expensive contract. That's the one that would put them over the top.

Ok, so they ought to change the parameters of a "quality start". The point is that he was reasonably effective in a lot of his outings. Regarding his second half stats: He had 8 quality starts in the last 3 months of the season. He had 12 in his last 21 starts. ERA is very misleading, because as we all know, one or two really bad starts can destroy a pitcher's ERA. In this case, he had one really bad start, in each of the last 4 months, of the season. He gave up 6 earned runs in one June start, 7 in a July start, 9 in his first August start and 7 in his first September outing. That will pretty much mess up a guy's ERA. Other than those 4 outings, he was pretty decent. 11 of those 12 quality starts, during the last 4 months, would actually meet the higher standard of 6 innings and 2 or less earned runs. Look, I'm not trying to say that he was terrific. But 11 wins, a .500 record, and 21 quality starts is more than acceptable for a 5TH starter. That said, I want the Sox to sign Scherzer, resulting in their claiming the best pitching staff in baseball. In the meantime, Danks will do as a 5TH starter, until they come up with something better.

The Central Division is very winnable. I hope that the my scenario, which involvers J. Reinsdorf upping the payroll becomes reality.

I posted it a couple weeks ago, but Danks had 20 quality starts last year. I'll take that from my 5TH starter anytime. He also had 3 other starts that just missed qualifying as "quality starts". That's pretty decent out of 32 starts. He also gave the staff 194 innings. He may be overpaid, but he is not awful.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 05:31 PM) Danks numbers will continue to decline, he is not going improve in 2015. Sox need 1 more solid #4 starter. On what do you base your assumption? He seemed to be getting a little stronger, regaining some of the lost velocity, as well as learning to pitch with the diminished velocity. Why would he now get worse?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 12:04 PM) There were rumblings at the start of winter meetings that he could last until January/February when some GM finally goes to his owner and says "we can win the world series with this guy". I was speculating that perhaps this is, more or less, the thought process with Reinsdorf. What if he told the guys in the front office that he would let them take the payroll back up to around $100 Million, and then see what kind of a team they had assembled, and how close they were to building a real contender? Once they had achieved that, he would keep an open mind about going over that mark, providing they had a real chance to grab a "ring". I always adhere to the principle that it's pitching that wins championships, and this team is now one more big RH starter from having the best pitching in baseball. That would be a very strong argument to present to the Chairman of the Board: "Mr. Reinsdorf, we believe that we are one piece away from having the most dominating pitching in our Division, our League, and all of baseball. If you are willing to spend the money to bring in Max Scherzer, we are confident that we can take "all the marbles". We have sufficiently upgraded the offense, to score enough runs to win with our pitching. The bullpen is now solid, and should be able to preserve the wins that our dominating starters can earn. This may be an extraordinary opportunity to seriously contend, for the next 3 to 4 years" I think that they would have a good argument, and I wouldn't be surprised if J. R. would agree. In other words, as "Balta" suggests; first you put together all of the rest of the pieces, and then if that high priced free agent puts you over the top, you pull the trigger. Oh sure, there are still places that this team could upgrade, but no team is solid at every position. With that pitching, they would have enough other pieces to win. What team could compete with that rotation? Sale, Scherzer, Quintana and Samardjiza is as good of a balanced, dominating, 1 - 4 pitching staff as I can ever remember. By next year, Rodon should be a fixture, so that resigning Samardjiza would not be critical. And finally, remember that these long term contracts can be moved, especially if they are constructed properly. Of course, that is providing the player doesn't get injured or suddenly lose his ability to perform. Well, we can dream can't we?

I have a feeling that Mr. Reinsdorf has not spent all of the money that he is willing to spend. Their payroll may be at around $100 Million, but they don't really have that much committed, longer term. Again, the only long term money that has been committed this off season is to Robertson and Duke. Samardjiza is a one year (so far), and LaRoche is 2 years. The core is all still either a ways from free agency, or signed to team friendly deals. Wouldn't it be fantastic if the Sox made one more big acquisition, that would represent a key core piece, for this 3 or 4 year "window"? Hey, if J. R. wants to go for it, he can't continue to spend like the mid market teams. He was willing to take the payroll up to around $130 Million, as recently as 2011. The revenues are higher, and teams are spending more now. He isn't getting any older, sees a division with no team uncatchable, and he has the nucleus of a group that isn't that far away. While Sale, Q., "Shark", Abreu, Robertson, LaRoche are in the fold, this may be his best shot at winning another World Series, providing he is willing to take that payroll back up to around $130 Million. We have seen the front office cry poor, and then spend beyond expectations. I just have a hunch that we may be at such a juncture again. Well, I'm hoping, anyway.

Ackley's career is similar to Beckham's. They both came out of college, with great expectations. They were both high draft picks, from the SEC. They both got a "cup of coffee" at 23, and looked like world beaters. They were both asked to change positions, and did so, reasonably well. The unfortunate parallel is that both have failed to realize the great offensive potential that they promised. At this point, I think that both are considered failed prospects. Career stats: Beckham .245 .307 .375 .681 D. Ackley .245 .309 .366 .676 I guess that I wouldn't mind taking a chance that he might actually figure it out, at the plate. I do like his versatility. He is a guy who could even play a little 3RD, if the Sox needed him there. He's a year older than Viciedo, and doesn't have his power potential, but is a better baseball player, in every other respect. I still don't see how slotting him into that hole in LF, makes this team much better. I'd rather that they Sox traded Dayan for more bullpen candidates, or pure prospects.

The Dodgers still need to move an outfielder or two. Apparently, they didn't accomplish that in this trade. The Sox couldn't really afford to move Alexei, so maybe it's a good thing that the Dodgers acquired their SS, without moving an outfielder. That has to still be on their agenda. What else could L. A. use, in exchange?

The Sox payroll may be near the limit for this year. However, we really haven't seen the front office commit much to the long term. LaRoche is a 2 year deal, and Samardjiza is so far a one year. The only longer term obligations that they've incurred this off season are the two bullpen acquisitions. If J. R. really wants to win, maybe he should consider stepping up to the plate and giving Scherzer a contract that would bring him to the South Side. That pitching staff would be the best in baseball, and only in the middle of the pack, in terms of total cost, due to the terrific contracts to which Sale and Quintana are signed. I think that you could win the division without spending any money on what are perceived as the remaining "holes". Hell, they could win with anyone in LF, who could catch the ball. Shuck, Danks, who cares? And, when they got to the post season, they would have to be the favorites to take it all, with those 4 studs. With Rodon in the wings, even if Samardjiza doesn't sign a long term deal, they would be fine going forward with a starting 4 of Sale, Scherzer, Quintana and Rodon. With that rotation, the 5TH starter just needs to eat innings and help save the bullpen. They would be a perennial playoff team, and once you get to the Post Season, they only need 4 starters.

QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 10, 2014 -> 12:29 PM) i will admit that i am sooo blinded in seeing DV gone, that sometimes i can't see straight. but Ackley is a last resort kind of player for the sox to get if it mean DV being gone. minor leaguers, the sox don't have any that can fill that bill better than DV. Perhaps I didn't articulate my thought clearly. What I meant was that this team needs to fill the hole in LF with someone better than Ackley. I agree that Viciedo is not acceptable either. If they move Viciedo, they don't have to move him for a left fielder, as someone else just pointed out. However, if the guy that they acquire is not a significant upgrade in left, then I'd just as soon that they trade him, and his $4 million salary for low cost, prospects for the future. They then have a roster spot open for that needed left fielder, and a little extra money to spend on him.

QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 10, 2014 -> 12:20 PM) i will like to add, if Sea doesn't want to go that route, then the sox have nothing. There are only so many roster spots. If the player they acquire cannot be a productive addition to that roster, I'd rather have some minor league prospects. I just don't see Ackley as a guy who helps this team improve the roster.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Dec 10, 2014 -> 10:20 AM) I don't doubt that Ackley would be maximizing the return from Viciedo. I am stating that I don't think any return that the Sox might get for Viciedo should be viewed as a starting position player for 2015. I think the Sox need to find a better LF than one that can be gotten for Viciedo. I'd rather go for one or two minor league arms that are most likely to never pan out but have at least a small potential to turn into a good reliever or 4/5 starter. Good point, and I agree. Especially if 3B is not going to be a power position for the Sox, they really should have a run producer in LF, or at the very least, someone with good speed, defense and the ability to get on base.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 10, 2014 -> 09:13 AM) On base percentage is not an advanced stat. OBP is a component of OPS, which is an Advanced Stat. Aren't we "splitting hairs" here?

How is Longoria anything but a complete fantasy? What could the Sox possibly afford to trade to acquire that caliber of player, signed to a very reasonable contract? This is akin to Red Sox fans speculating about acquiring Sale.

QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 10, 2014 -> 08:17 AM) but i like him for other reasons, which makes this an ideal trade. second to Bruce. he bats #2 and if injury to Eaton, will lead off. Again, his OBP is .300. He is not a viable option to lead off. He is also not a good enough outfielder to replace Eaton in CF, in the event of an injury to Eaton.

If this team is seriously going to compete, they cannot have a left fielder with little power and a .300 OBP. Ackley is not an upgrade. Next?

QUOTE (TheTruth05 @ Dec 9, 2014 -> 12:00 PM) I like the idea of using Danks to get Ethier and money from LA and then signing Masterson to a 1yr buy low deal with maybe a 2nd year option. And if possible ship Viciedo with Danks to LA That would indeed be wonderful. However, I can't believe that the Dodgers would include cash in that deal. Do they even really want Danks? Why wouldn't a straight up, Ethier for Danks trade be reasonable for the Sox? I doubt that L. A. would do that deal, but if so, that would be very enticing, from our view point.