Lillian

This move of acquiring Juan Diaz only increases the likelihood that there is something brewing with a Ramirez trade. The Sox have plenty of middle infielders, so this doesn't seem like an organizational roster fill in kind of move. The only thing that I can find about his defensive ability is that he has a strong arm, which is not surprising for a 6'4" SS. He could be the answer to the question; "Who fills the stop gap SS role until Tim Anderson is ready?" To reiterate; If he can play defense, and Kemp would be coming to the Sox in a trade centered around Alexei, I'd be thrilled. He wouldn't have to hit much with that lineup. Remember, this speculated move would not require the loss of a Draft pick. Moreover, if Diaz were to be the SS, his salary is inconsequential.

Woa!!! Calm down fellas. I'm not breaking any news here. That was the original rumor that we all had discussed. What seems likely are the following factors: 1) The Dodgers are "aggressively pursuing Alexei". That has been widely reported. 2) They want to move at least one veteran outfielder, and Kemp's name has been mentioned prominently. 3) They also want to reduce payroll. There doesn't seem to be much disputing those points, but it's not news.

The rumored deal centers around Alexei for Kemp. If that is the case, the difference between Kemp and Alexei is $11Million this coming season, and $11.5 million, the following year. In the third year, with Alexei's contract expiring, the difference is, of course, the full Kemp salary. However, Kemp is young enough to justify the $21.5 million per year for the final 3 years of the contract, during his age 32, 33 and 34 seasons. If L. A. were to take Danks' salary commitment for the duration of his contract, which is 2 years at $14.25 Million per year, they would actually be paying out more during the next 2 years with Alexei and Danks, then they would with Kemp. If they needed, or even wanted Danks, that might be acceptable to them. However, the Dodgers do not need or want him, and part of their motive in moving Kemp is to reduce payroll. Therefore, a trade of Alexei and Danks for Kemp, is not realistic, much less the notion that the Dodgers would also have to kick in some money. If the Sox could count on one of their inexpensive, young middle infielders to fill the void at SS, until Anderson or Rondon arrive, I would embrace having Kemp, to combine with Abreu, to form 2/3 of the heart of the Sox lineup, for the next 5 years. If the Sox could get the Dodgers to add a promising young player, that would make the proposed deal very compelling. I had originally suggested Scott Schebler.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Nov 23, 2014 -> 02:07 PM) Yeah, I'm only interested in Kemp if the Dodgers take Danks and throw in a small chunk of change. What would be your exact trade proposal for Kemp?

I read where the Sox acquired Joe Savery: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/mino...s-triunfel.html Why haven't I seen anything about it, on this board?

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Nov 22, 2014 -> 07:52 PM) Could Alexei + Danks net Kemp + a better than lottery ticket prospect, or Kemp + two or three lottery tickets? That just seems like a match that makes sense to me. The Sox lower their payroll obligation, acquire a middle of the order OF bat (who would essentially be paid 4/30), and rid themselves of Danks, allowing Bassit and Noesi starting opportunities. Meanwhile, the Dodgers get an upgrade at SS and the back end of the rotation starter they're looking for, not to mention clearing their OF logjam. Is it just me, or does that make a lot of sense for both sides and seem like a reasonable deal? We have discussed this at great length, in the thread entitled; "Dodgers Aggressively Pursuing Alexei". You might find the thread interesting. The problem with the trade you are proposing is that the Dodgers do not need Danks, and are trying to reduce payroll. I think L. A. may indeed be willing to trade Kemp for Alexei, as they would acquire their stop gap SS, clear some payroll, and break up their outfield logjam.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 22, 2014 -> 11:03 AM) Danks and Viciedo could likely be gone too. Eaton CF Ramirez SS Abreu 1B/DH LaRoche DH/1B Kemp LF Gillaspie 3B Garcia RF Flowers C Semien/Sanchez/Johnson 2B Rotation: Sale Quintana RH SP Noesi Filler until Rodon comes up (maybe a high upside arm in a Viciedo deal?) I'm sorry, but I must have missed something. How did we get Kemp, and still have Alexei?

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 22, 2014 -> 07:39 AM) Please stop with this suggestion. Rondon would be so bad offensively that it would negate any value his defense would provide. On top of that, you'd be stunting his development significantly. Just an all-around horrible idea when you consider short-term and long-term goals. Alright, I'll "stop". I realize that it is not a suggestion that fits with conventional wisdom on this board. Although I don't quite understand how regular playing time in the big Leagues "stunts" a player's development. And, I do believe that Rondon is arguably the best defensive SS in the entire Minor Leagues. That said, whom do you recommend for SS, if Alexei is traded?

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 22, 2014 -> 07:00 AM) if the sox do that trade, they may be hoping for that 1 yr stop gap, until Anderson is ready or worst case, that great defensive ss in the minors. I had written earlier, that Rondon could conceivably be pushed up to the Majors, because of his defensive prowess. Defense translates at higher levels. If a SS has great hands, instincts and the arm, there is no reason he can't employ those attributes equally at the Big League level. If anything, the better groomed infields might actually improve his performance. The other point I made was that with a lineup featuring Eaton, Abreu, LaRoche, Kemp, Garcia, and Gillaspie, I think the Sox could handle a weak hitting SS. Moreover, I've been intrigued by the fact that Rondon only recently started switch hitting. I believe that it was "Northsider72" who pointed that out. Rondon has actually been pretty good batting right handed. It might interesting to see what would happen if he just went back to hitting exclusively from the right side.

I just read a few more scouting reports on Arruebarrena, and I'd like to retract my suggestion that he be included in the trade. Although his defense is rated as a "Top 5 Major League type SS", his approach at the plate will obviously need more time in the Minors. He sure isn't worth the $5 Million per year, that he costs.

Alexei for Kemp and Arruebarrena. They acquire the last piece of the heart of their lineup, which becomes very potent. They get their outfielder They also acquire Alexei's replacement at SS, a slick fielder with offensive upside. They get a little younger. Kemp is 3 years younger, at a position where age is not as critical. I assume he plays a corner outfield. They maintain the Cuban connection, to help replace Alexei and the soon to be traded Viciedo.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 09:41 PM) C.Rondon in 2015? Just wow. It didn't work to carry Brian Anderson in 2006 when we had one of the best offenses in the league...andRondon wouldn't come close to Anderson's numbers offensively. Leury Garcia would make fewer errors than Rondon and nobody wants to see him on the roster even. I knew that some of you would find that idea outrageous, but if Rondon is as good a SS, as the scouts say he is, I don't think it would really matter how little he hit. I do find it surprising that you think L. Garcia would play better SS. OK, then let him be the offensive void at the bottom of the order. My point is simply that I don't think a potent lineup, such as what I'm proposing, would need offense from the 9TH spot. Here's my projected lineup: 1. Eaton CF 2. Gillaspie/Semien 3B 3. Abreu 1B 4. LaRoche/platoon ? 5. Kemp OF 6. Garcia OF 7. Flowers C 8. M. Johnson/Sanchez/Semien 9. ??? SS (Best Defender available) Trade Viciedo, perhaps for a bullpen arm. Sign a RH starting pitcher.

The Dodgers still want Alexei, and also want to move an outfielder, preferably one with a big salary. Now that the Sox have a middle of the order, left handed bat, Ethier is not the ideal return for Alexei. If the Sox could instead obtain Kemp, the offense could become very potent. SS could be filled by the best defensive option available, with little concern for offensive production. I personally wouldn't even mind Rondon. He is the best defensive SS in the organization, and arguably the best in the Minor Leagues. Defense translates very well to higher levels of competition. Bat him 9TH, and don't worry about what he contributes with his bat. Anderson is still at least a year or two away. He needs to polish his defense, and is therefore not yet a viable option. Vizquel broke in very young, and with no offensive skills, but he played brilliant defense, right at the outset, and eventually became a solid contributor, at the plate. A lineup that included Eaton, Abreu, LaRoche, Kemp, Gillaspie and Avi could afford a hole, at the bottom of the order.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 07:05 PM) If they have another 20-25 million left to spend. Melky 4 years/50 million Trade for Bruce. They don't have room for two more outfielders, and don't need two more guys who bat left handed (Cabrera being a switch hitter)

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 06:49 PM) This is nice. Does this mean the Q + prospects for Jay Bruce is off? You would certainly have to assume so. The need for a left handed middle of the order bat has been filled. Any outfielder whom the front office targets now, could bat either right or left handed. He will also likely be a more athletic, faster and better defensive player, not a plodding slugger like Bruce.

At this point, the Sox have two guys who will need to be platooned. Both Gillaspie and LaRoche should not face LHP. Most of us assumed that Semien would share 3B, and I would guess that Viciedo would be first in line to take the RH tandem for LaRoche. However, there may be more possibilities to emerge. So the wish list is now down to an outfielder, who now does not have to be left handed, a right handed starting pitcher, and a closer.

The reluctance to trade a young, attractively cost controlled, very good pitcher is understandable. However, conceptually it might make sense for the right package. The Sox are in an enviable position of having lots of payroll flexibility. Many teams are desperately in need of moving salary. That means that the Sox have a tremendous amount of leverage in negotiations with any such team. Taking on a relatively large contract is something that the Sox can easily do. As long as the value is in excess of what the free agent market offers, that might be a viable strategy. Why not try to find a player, or two, who could fill some Sox needs, and consider trading the precious commodity of a cost controlled asset like Quintana? Rodon will likely become the #2 starter, within the next 2 seasons. That would make the third southpaw expendable, providing the Sox can find a #3, RH starter to take his place, while at the same time, improving the balance of the rotation. Again, the organization has the luxury of being able to take on significantly more salary. If the front office could fill two major holes, eg; a middle of the order LH Bat, and a #2, or #3 RH Starting pitcher, in exchange for Quintana, that seems reasonable. Of course, it would necessarily increase payroll, as moving salary commitments would be one of the other team's primary motives, in making such a trade. However, that is not an obstacle for the Sox. In fact, that is the point. Payroll flexibility could arguably be considered an asset, which they can afford to trade. So, what kind of deal can you amateur GMs envision, that could accomplish such objectives?

A middle of the order hitter, who is virtually an automatic out versus LH pitching, is problematical. If the opposing manager brings in a lefty to face him late in the game, you really almost have to pinch hit someone for him. Pulling your clean up hitter for a pinch hitter is a tough way to go. That said, Ike Davis has been a pretty good hitter, vs. RH pitching.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 07:58 AM) There's no way Phil Rogers actually wrote that. It's all way too logical and makes too much sense. Maybe Rogers has been reading our posts,..........again.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 05:39 AM) This discussion has been a lot of fun, and you guys have provided some very good, thoughtful analysis. From my perspective, and to summarize, it seems the Dodgers are seeking to accomplish the following: 1) To acquire a SS for the next 2 years. 2) To unload some of their enormous payroll 3) To make room for their core outfielders by moving a couple of veterans, from the group of Crawford, Ethier and Kemp The Sox are seeking: 1) A LH Hitting, middle of the order bat 2) One outfielder, with both decent defense, as well as offensive production 3) A RH Starting pitcher, who is capable of being at least a #4, or better. They already have a #5 in Noesi 4) A mix of veteran leadership, while strengthening their young core going forward. If that assessment of the respective objectives of both teams is correct, it would appear that the teams match up sufficiently in the following ways: 1) Ethier satisfies the Dodgers' need to clear some payroll and their crowded outfield, while providing the Sox a LH Middle of the order bat, with adequate defense for a corner OF spot and veteran leadership. 2) Alexei satisfies the Dodgers' need for an outstanding defensive SS, who also provides offense, and does not represent a long term financial commitment. 3) Schebler satisfies the Sox need for a LH power bat, in the outfield, going forward. The only other potential left handed, power bat in the Sox organization is Barnum, who is first baseman, and several years from the Major Leagues. Schebler probably still needs at least 1 year at AAA. Ethier could move to DH as a platoon player, once he is ready. That is the core of a potential trade. The Dodgers accomplish 3 of their objectives by acquiring their SS, moving payroll, and making room in their crowded outfield. The Sox accomplish 3 of their goals by acquiring a LH middle of the order bat, a corner outfielder with some veteran leadership, while still strengthening their core going forward. I understand that Ethier is a not a productive hitter vs. LHP. However, it seems most of the good left handed starters in our division are on the Sox. Moreover, I'm sure that the Sox can find someone to platoon with Ethier, and the rest never hurts a guy in his mid 30's. As some have suggested, don't under estimate his production against RH pitching. I would add; don't under estimate the Sox need for such left handed offensive production. We are all concerned about Ethier's sudden drop off, last year. It seems reasonable to assume that it was an aberration, as he is not that old, and has always been a very consistently good hitter, albeit vs. RH pitching only. Moving Danks and his contract, is a benefit to the Sox, not the Dodgers. If he is included in the deal, the Sox would have to provide another benefit to the Dodgers. I don't think that the Sox have any expendable players, in whom L.A. would have interest. Therefore I don't see that happening. At this point, Danks may be considered a #4 starter, with the added benefit of being LH. Lefties who can eat innings are always in demand. I would think that there might be some team interested in swapping their #3, or 4 RH starter for Danks. If there were no significant difference in the contracts, that might be a realistic match. To further clarify a couple of points, regarding what I posted above: 1) A deal involving Alexei for Ethier and Schebler, is feasible. However, we can certainly argue over the exact details eg; the Sox could insist upon some cash, or an additional player. 2) Ethier and Ramirez are the same age, but Alexei's skill set is likely to decline faster than Andre's. Ramirez depends upon his speed and range, to remain an elite SS. Ethier is a patient, professional hitter, with a high OBP. Those are the kinds of skills that are easier to sustain, late into a player's career. 3) When I said that the Sox had only one potential LH impact bat in the organization, I inadvertently overlooked Wilkins. He is still young enough to be considered, but he doesn't seem to be part of the organization's plans. Perhaps another successful season at AAA will change that

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 05:30 PM) I think if the Sox could have gotten a better player for Tank, they would have by now. And what is to say that they haven't been offered a better player than Navarro, and turned that down, as well? What exactly is so special about Navarro?

Some of you may find this article interesting and quite enlightening, regarding Ethier: http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-s...928-column.html

Compare the career stats for Navarro and Viciedo. Then, take into consideration that Navarro has had 5 years, in his prime, between ages 25 and 30. Viciedo is just 25, and has his prime years ahead of him. I think it's reasonable to assume that Viciedo should improve his career stats over the next 5 years, while Navarro is likely passing his prime. I'm not at all opposed to trading Dayan, but I'd think that they can get a better player for him. He still holds promise, which Navarro lacks. Navarro is what he is. I don't see any reason to expect him to improve going forward. There are probably teams who believe Viciedo can still become a potent offensive player. That may, or may not be the case, but a 25 year old, who has already had two seasons of 20 plus homers, one in fact with 25, might be tempting to a GM, looking for a RH power hitter.

Given his age and untapped potential, Viciedo probably has more value than Navarro. I would not make that trade.

This discussion has been a lot of fun, and you guys have provided some very good, thoughtful analysis. From my perspective, and to summarize, it seems the Dodgers are seeking to accomplish the following: 1) To acquire a SS for the next 2 years. 2) To unload some of their enormous payroll 3) To make room for their core outfielders by moving a couple of veterans, from the group of Crawford, Ethier and Kemp The Sox are seeking: 1) A LH Hitting, middle of the order bat 2) One outfielder, with both decent defense, as well as offensive production 3) A RH Starting pitcher, who is capable of being at least a #4, or better. They already have a #5 in Noesi 4) A mix of veteran leadership, while strengthening their young core going forward. If that assessment of the respective objectives of both teams is correct, it would appear that the teams match up sufficiently in the following ways: 1) Ethier satisfies the Dodgers' need to clear some payroll and their crowded outfield, while providing the Sox a LH Middle of the order bat, with adequate defense for a corner OF spot and veteran leadership. 2) Alexei satisfies the Dodgers' need for an outstanding defensive SS, who also provides offense, and does not represent a long term financial commitment. 3) Schebler satisfies the Sox need for a LH power bat, in the outfield, going forward. The only other potential left handed, power bat in the Sox organization is Barnum, who is first baseman, and several years from the Major Leagues. Schebler probably still needs at least 1 year at AAA. Ethier could move to DH as a platoon player, once he is ready. That is the core of a potential trade. The Dodgers accomplish 3 of their objectives by acquiring their SS, moving payroll, and making room in their crowded outfield. The Sox accomplish 3 of their goals by acquiring a LH middle of the order bat, a corner outfielder with some veteran leadership, while still strengthening their core going forward. I understand that Ethier is a not a productive hitter vs. LHP. However, it seems most of the good left handed starters in our division are on the Sox. Moreover, I'm sure that the Sox can find someone to platoon with Ethier, and the rest never hurts a guy in his mid 30's. As some have suggested, don't under estimate his production against RH pitching. I would add; don't under estimate the Sox need for such left handed offensive production. We are all concerned about Ethier's sudden drop off, last year. It seems reasonable to assume that it was an aberration, as he is not that old, and has always been a very consistently good hitter, albeit vs. RH pitching only. Moving Danks and his contract, is a benefit to the Sox, not the Dodgers. If he is included in the deal, the Sox would have to provide another benefit to the Dodgers. I don't think that the Sox have any expendable players, in whom L.A. would have interest. Therefore I don't see that happening. At this point, Danks may be considered a #4 starter, with the added benefit of being LH. Lefties who can eat innings are always in demand. I would think that there might be some team interested in swapping their #3, or 4 RH starter for Danks. If there were no significant difference in the contracts, that might be a realistic match.