Lillian

Here is a surprising statistic, which might change one's perspective: Quality starts in 2014: Max Scherzer 21 out of 33 starts. John Danks 20 out of 32 starts. That was using the old formula, which is 6 or more innings, 3 earned runs, or less. And we are considering giving Scherzer $25 Million for 6 years, while we are all desperate to unload Danks, and his contract. Very interesting!!

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 12:58 PM) One big problem there... we don't have $55 million to spend. How do you know that? J. R. may be willing to go to $110 or $115 Million. He has certainly been there before. Those players would not only have a better likelihood of winning, but they would put more fannies in the seats.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 12:21 PM) I'm coming around to thinking the Sox could sign 4/5 free agents in the affordable category like Melky, Rasmus, Neshek, Janssen, McCarthy , Miller. Most of these guys won't get more than 3 years maybe 4 in some cases. Even Headley doesn't look like his cost will be prohibitive. Surprisngly the Sox haven't been linked to any of these guys.... yet. I'm not advocating it, but what if the plan is exactly the opposite? Maybe the front office thinks that it makes more sense to gamble on 2 or 3 stars, who are likely to add significant value to the team. What if they paid V. Martinez $20 million, Scherzer $25 million, and added one reliever for another $10 million, for example. In that scenario, they would have a contender. None of the teams in contention have stars at every position. They don't need to "fill every hole" with great players. With a nucleus of Eaton, Abreu, Martinez, Gillaspie/Semien, Garcia and Ramirez, they don't need much from the other outfield position, second base, or catcher. Jordan Danks and, or the recent acquisition of Shuck could provide good defense, and whatever offense they produced, would be a bonus. If Sanchez functioned well, as the other half of the DP combo, he wouldn't be depended upon to provide much offense either. Flowers is at least a good defensive catcher. If those three guys averaged .240, and caught the ball, the Sox could win with them, at the bottom of the order. A starting staff which added a right handed Ace like Scherzer, wouldn't need a lot of run support. The #1 through #3 of that staff would be as good as any top of the rotation in baseball, and then they still have Rodon coming soon. Maybe that is the plan. You could make an argument that spending $55 million for 3 difference makers, is more likely to make the team a solid contender, than spending close to that, for a bunch of guys who aren't much better than what they already have. Again, I'm not advocating it, but I wouldn't criticize it, if that is the way Hahn is trying to go. I do know one thing; Rasmus, Melky Cabrera, Headley and whomever else they might try to acquire, wouldn't inspire the fan base anything like Martinez, Scherzer and one of those bull pen studs.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 8, 2014 -> 12:07 PM) Dunn and Martinez might be the least comparable players in the history of baseball. They have age and position in common. Other than that, there isn't a thing about the way they play the game of baseball that is similar. Thank you for posting that comment. When I read it, I thought the very same thing. They are completely different types of hitters, and I much prefer the Martinez type to Dunn, even in Adam's prime, when he was hitting 40 homers every year.

Don't tell the Mariners, sshh, but Viciedo derives his power from a violent, very hard swing. It may inhibit his ability to ever become a decent hitter. Saunders probably has a better chance to become a decent hitter, while displaying some power. Unlike Viciedo, it doesn't appear that he is trying to kill the ball. That certainly is a nice, fluid swing. It's a little long, which is accentuated by his height, but it is pretty.

Never mind.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 7, 2014 -> 10:49 AM) Yeah, it just seems like we're a little short here. Feels like the plan should be to do whatever we can to get competitive via trade for 2015, fill in the holes with low-commitment guys inf ree agency, and then take that core all the way in 2016. VMart-type signings to be considered next offseason. The problem is; there are no "VMart-type' signings in next years free agent class. Not if, by "VMart-type", you mean extraordinary, professional, big run producing hitters, who strike out very seldom.

Thanks for the comments. It appears that perhaps the best course is to let him start the season at AAA, and work on polishing his defense at second. I don't find the assessment that he has "hard hands", very encouraging. A guy with foot speed, and hard hands, seems better suited for the outfield. However, so be it. Let's see if he can 'soften' his hands, a little. So, back to finding a left fielder. Some suggest Semien. Next?

Do you gentlemen think that Johnson could provide solid defense at second? If not, then the Sox should think of a position change. If LF is too great of a challenge for him, at the Big League level, then perhaps he should spend some time there at AAA. It doesn't seem like a good move to put him at a key defensive position like 2ND, unless he can provide solid defense. That is a greater defensive liability, for the team, than a less than competent left fielder. What exactly is his greatest short coming at second? How well does he turn the double play?

"NorthSide", you posted the answer to my question, just as I was posting it, precisely at the same moment. What would be the harm in letting him get some playing time, out there, in Spring Training. I pretty sure that he is not ready to play second base on a contender (as Hahn suggests that he expects the Sox to be).

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 7, 2014 -> 10:01 AM) Twice. He had a nerve thing in his throwing arm. The good news is, the second surgery is a permanent fix, so it shouldn't recur. The bad news is, it may have been caused by bad throwing mechanics. Despite Buddy Bell's repeated protestations otherwise, Jared Mitchell has not shown any reason to believe he's a major league outfielder. I hope that changes, but I doubt it. May and Hawkins both have at least a couple years, if they ever get there. You can't build around assumptions of their presence at this point. I understand that, but why not worry about who is, or is not, capable of filling holes, when the time arrives. Right now, there is a hole in LF, or RF if you move Avi to Left. I still think that the question is: Could Johnson play LF, without creating a defensive liability out there? We're pretty sure that he would be a defensive liability at second. Or, maybe the argument is that Micah is not ready to contribute on offense. I don't get the sense that the organization thinks that, do you?

Well, it does seem the organization is determined to use Johnson somewhere, on the Major League team. I just hope that it isn't second base, because he is apparently not very good there. The defense up the middle is just too important to sacrifice, unless the player can provide a major offensive contribution. One thing Beckham provided, that was often under appreciated, was a great double play combo with Alexei. I hope they are able to maintain that strength, and Sanchez seems to be the best candidate to provide it. He seems like he could be a pretty good 2 hole hitter, with good contact skills. In a similar way, with Johnson batting 9TH, Eaton would provide good skills to bat behind a speedy, base stealing threat, like Micah. Leave the slow power guys in the middle of the order.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 7, 2014 -> 09:47 AM) He probably COULD play there, but putting him there comes with a high opportunity cost, because it seems like his bat is probably best suited for the middle infield, and then that prevents us from getting a better bat to stick in LF. Basically, it might end up being the best configuration for us next year, but it shouldn't be the plan right now for the offseason. I thought that Davidson was ultimately better suited to play LF, than 3B, providing of course, that he gets back on track. Then too, there are several promising guys who could eventually fill the outfield. I'm thinking J. Mitchell, Jacob May and C. Hawkins. It seems that they are really in greater need of finding someone to get them through the next season or two, before those guys are ready. I think May will eventually take over in CF, and Eaton will move to LF, if he's still around. Eaton just seems like the kind of guy who will slow down due to injuries and age, and without speed, he wouldn't be much of an asset.

With all of the talk of needing to find another outfielder, why not consider Micah Johnson for that role. He is ranked as our #4 prospect, and would provide tremendous speed to our lineup. Speed seems to be the new trend of the game. He is arguably ready for the Big Leagues, but is not yet a polished infielder. Some have speculated about his potential as a center fielder, but that would take considerably more development time to master. Left field would not require a strong arm, which he apparently lacks. The outfield would sport tremendous speed with Johnson, Eaton and A. Garcia. That would leave 2ND to a solid defender; Sanchez. Semien could effectively platoon with Gillaspie at 3RD. That would free up the money to pay a high priced free agent, left handed hitting DH, and a starting RH pitcher. The bullpen could be the best place to allocate the rest of the money. What is the likelihood that he could play a respectable LF? Here is my lineup, using Johnson in LF: CF Eaton 2B Sanchez 1B Abreu DH Martinez (I hope, I hope) RF A. Garcia 3B Gillaspie/Semien SS Ramirez C Flowers LF M. Johnson

I do not want the Sox to trade Alexei. He is the perfect player to anchor our young infield, until his successor can take over. That may be Anderson, or it might be Rondon. However, neither of them are ready. There are no other guys in the organization who are ready to provide the kind of defense that Ramirez does. All of our other infielders are better suited at 2ND. He also is a solid bat, with a little pop, and a pretty run producer. It makes no sense to trade him, if the Sox are really going to try to contend this season.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Nov 7, 2014 -> 09:08 AM) He's as good of a defensive SS as you'll find in the minors. There are some clips on youtube and countless articles from prospect guys. Keith Law raved about him and said if he hits above the Mendoza Line he'll have a big league career. Nathaniel Stoltz from fangraphs is also a huge fan. Again, have you seen any assessments of his arm strength and accuracy?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 7, 2014 -> 08:51 AM) Not sure if you are aware, but he hadn't even started switch-hitting until during he 2013 season. Give it time. That is interesting. Wow, he just started to switch hit!!! I did check his split stats at Kannapolis, and while they were still better from the right side, they weren't as dramatically different. If he has been able to make as much progress as he has, just learning to hit from the left side, that is very encouraging. This guy must be a pretty gifted athlete. The scouts rave about his defense. Has anyone seen him play? How is his arm?

In looking at Rondon's splits, it appears that he may not be suitable as a switch hitter. His performance at Winston Salem, albeit in a limited sample size, was pretty good batting from his natural, right side: .303/.352/576. However, from the left side, he was totally inept, in a larger sample size: .220/.297/.242. He managed just 3 extra base hits, in 132 at bats. Does anyone have any split stats for him, while he was with Kannapolis? If he is really that much better of a hitter, from the right side, maybe he should consider giving up switch hitting. Of course, he is still very young, and may improve. However, he could also be wasting his development time as a strictly RH hitter. I wonder how the other guys on the team did vs. RH pitching. I'm going to see if it was partially due to facing a lot of really tough RH pitchers. The kid is such a good defensive SS, that it wouldn't take much improvement at the plate to make him a top prospect.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 7, 2014 -> 06:06 AM) The key component to hitting bad pitches as it is with any pitches is to be able to not swing and miss and as we have seen over the years the strikeout rate is rising dramatically which makes VMart such an anomaly. He was the only player in the ML to walk more than he K'ed. Swinging and missing is only part of the problem. Isn't it also trying to do something with a pitch, which doesn't lend itself to the hitters intent? That's what I mean by the willingness to take an outside pitch, the other way, to the opposite field.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 08:16 PM) I have no idea what you just said . But the article tells me something I didn't know . VMart is a great bad ball hitter. The rest sort of confirms what I saw with my own eyes and with his stats. There are absolutely 0 signs of decline at the moment. I could point to LaRoche's last 2 years of production against lefties as a sign of decline but nothing pops up for VMart. Reference to Lillian : I don't think that particular talent can be taught , because there are guys who K a ton with pitches in the zone let alone out of the zone. But maybe there is something in his approach that can be taught like when to look for certain pitches and in what zones. I'd like to see which pitches he is the most successful at hitting out of the zone . Maybe it's that he's learned to recognize, for instance, pitches that will be below the strike zone and zeros in on pitches between knee high and belt high and what zone to look for them . So if he's looking inside or outside he can still react to a ball even off the plate because it's part of the area he's zoning in on in his head thereby eliminating 75% other zones. But regardless if pitch recognition could be taught or how to be a smart disciplined hitter there would be a lot less K's and Tank would be a superstar. Isn't a key component of being able to hit "bad pitches," the willingness to hit the ball where it's pitched? For example; going the other way, on an outside pitch. There are a lot of base hits in those kinds of pitches, but not if the batter tries to pull them. I'm reminded of Adam Dunn. It was always very frustrating to me to watch him take outside pitches, which he could have easily hit to the, virtually undefended, left side. A hitter with poor discipline tries to pull that pitch, and rolls over on it, for a ground out, to the pull side. Often, Dunn did demonstrate good plate discipline by taking that pitch for a ball. However, he could have had a double, by simply taking the pitch the other way. Moreover, by not trying to pull the ball, there is more time to recognize the speed, location and movement of the pitch. That extra time helps offset any loss of bad speed, which comes with age. Perhaps that is what Victor does, and at least in part, why he is such a great hitter.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 04:10 PM) We don't know about Rodon. Noesi, if he repeats, is fine as a #5. They need 2 more 3/4 types. And going into a season with exactly 5 is foolhardy. There will be injuries. It's also another reason not to trade the pitching prospects we do have (esp for declining/mediocre veterans). You need a consistently productive pipeline of young pitching. This roster, with no DH, no LF, uncertainty at 2B, dubious D at 3rd, missing 2 starters and whatever in the pen is not a .500 roster. LF is the real challenge here, in my eyes. Yes, but I thought that we have been debating how to use the significant payroll flexibility to fill those holes.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 03:49 PM) I totally disagree with this. This roster is 2 good relievers away from still being 5 games under .500 in my eyes. So, you don't think that Sale, Quintana, Rodon and whomever else they use for the #3 and #4 starters, comprise even a .500 starting staff, providing the bullpen doesn't throw away quality starts? I know that Rodon may not be able to provide 30 plus starts, nevertheless I just don't have that little confidence in our starters. Hell, even Danks can give you quality starts, in about 60% of his outings.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 03:31 PM) This is where I often disagree with Greg. This roster is 2 good relievers from a .500 team. Yes, however one of those two may already be on the roster, with Bassitt. Perhaps even both, if Montas is used in the Pen. Moreover, finding relievers should be easier and less expensive than finding middle of the order bats, or starters.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 03:07 PM) I agree. Whether they can get it done is another question. Here is an article the saber guys might like: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2014/11/5/71...defying-outlier Very interesting article. Thanks for posting it. I've always contended that there are a lot of base hits, in pitches out of the strike zone, providing a hitter is willing to hit the ball where it's pitched. A great "bad ball" hitter is a tremendous asset to an offense. It presents a significant challenge even to a pitcher with great command. who may be able to hit his spot, but the hitter can still make good contact. What a great technique for young hitters to try to emulate? Maybe Victor would be able to help some of our young hitters, especially Garcia. That's another intangible that argues for signing him.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 02:26 PM) Jose Fernandez, Carols Gonzalez, LoMo, Pedro Alvarez, and Jay Bruce. That list is very uninspiring. I would prefer a 37 year old VMart, in his second year of the contract, to any of those guys.