Lillian

Has anyone seen anything regarding Tanaka's preference for the AL, with the DH, or does he like to hit?

It might not be reasonable to expect him to walk as much as he did in Cuba. It's almost certain that the intimidation factor resulted in many teams simply going around him. MLB pitchers will likely come after him, at least until he proves that he can hit them. So, while he may not walk as much, he may hit more than most of us expect. He has demonstrated an amazing ability to put the bat on the ball, when challenged. The issue of bat speed is over rated. A hitter needs sufficient bat speed to get the bat to the hitting zone quickly. It's more important to rotate the lower body first, and accelerate the bat, with greater torque, as it approaches the ball. The speed as measured from the beginning of the swing is not as important as the torque and velocity of the bat as it meets the ball. As long as the hitter can get the bat in the zone quickly enough, his bat speed as it approaches the ball is more important that the total velocity of the entire swing. The "Axis of Rotation" and "Bat Lag" portions of this article explain the principles of kinesiology involved: http://www.leaguelineup.com/mmjba/files/BIOKINETIC06.pdf Frank Thomas was never known for having extraordinary bat speed, but it didn't impede him from being one of the greatest hitters in the history of the game. And that is without even considering the "hands before the barrel of the bat" swing he used to hit the ball to right field, with such proficiency. Ted Williams also was not known for bat speed, but what an amazing hitter he was. Like Thomas, he was an incredibly smart hitter, and had great eye sight. I understand that there are other examples of hitters, such as Barry Bonds, whose greatness may have been related to their bat speed, but extraordinary bat speed is not essential. Abreu is big and strong enough to hit the ball a very long way, and his power doesn't rely upon bat speed alone. It would be very interesting to know how he fared against pitchers who challenged him with mid 90's fastballs. When a hitter dominates like Abreu has, at any level, you have to concede that he has an extraordinary ability to put the bat on the ball, with a very good result. I'm not going to be surprised if he surpasses most expectations. Unlike many of you, I would expect him to do better right out of the "starting gate", and then slow down as pitchers stop challenging him. That will be when it will become more important for the Sox to provide him some protection in the line up. If a big part of that equation is Adam Dunn, all I can say is; good luck with that.

Tanaka wants to win a World Series. Sign him to a long term, 7 year deal at up to $20 Million per year, and give him an opt out, after 5. If the Sox don't look like they have a chance to win it all, he would probably exercise his option to go elsewhere, and the Sox would be off the hook. If they are competitive enough to have a realistic shot at a championship, they'd be happy to have him in the rotation, and he would likely not leave. The idea of giving a guy an opt out is also attractive because it keeps him motivated. He would be playing for a potential new free agent deal in the 4TH and 5TH years. Isn't that much better than having a player know that he is already getting his money, no matter how he performs? It's just human nature for a person to have less drive and intensity, once he has been guaranteed all the money he is going to get. Of course, there is always the chance that he gets injured, or just never plays up to expectations, but that risk always exist with any player. At least with a guy who is just coming into his prime, the prospects are reasonable. Players are not going to be playing as long into their late 30's as they were in the steroid era. It's a far safer bet to get guys in their mid 20's. I'm sold. Get him!!! Has anyone posted this link?: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/i...masahiro-tanaka

If the Sox end up drafting Jeff Hoffman, how would that figure into this equation? How long would it likely take for Hoffman to be able to contribute? Could they end up with a staff of Sale, Tanaka, Quintana, Hoffman and Johnson in a couple of years?

QUOTE (oldsox @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 07:17 AM) Weather? 'Yea' right, beautiful Chicago weather in the spring and Post Season Fall!!!!! I wonder if he's ever played baseball in the snow. That must have been right after they told him about the ancient 'Grabowski Dynasty', and that Butkus was a famous Samurai warrior. Hey, come to think of it, the '85 Bears did have "Samurai Mike".

Anyone care to conjecture just how the Sox front office might have pitched him? What else, besides their bright future, a great city, less media scrutiny and thus less pressure, and an opt out clause in the contract?

Why not give him something like a 7 year deal, at $15 or 16 Million per year, with an opt out for him, after 4 or 5 years? When he's 30, if he can get a bigger contract, he'd be free to take it, but still have the security of the 7 year guarantee. The Sox have done this kind of deal before. Albert Belle was signed with an opt out. This strategy of giving the big contracts to players during their prime is very smart. The common practice of committing big salary obligations to guys, when they are past their prime, and even "old", makes little sense. I think most agree that teams who have done that with free agents like Pujols, Cano, Hamilton and so many more, are going to regret those contracts one day.

The Sox have the payroll flexibility. He fits Hahn's very sound strategy of not signing aging free agents and paying them enormous sums for past performance. He is a potential right handed ace, lacking on the unbalanced staff, dominated by southpaws. He will not cost a draft pick The only question for me is; How good is he? A bonus is that the Sox could then bypass the top pitching prospects in this year's draft, and perhaps have a shot at the best position player with their number 3 pick. Rodon and Hoffman may go one and two, leaving both Jackson and Davidson available. One is a catcher and the other a potential impact left handed bat. I know many say you don't draft to fill needs, but those two guys are very intriguing, and just happen to fit.

Beckham may very well finally become the player he was projected to be. That's fine, and there is no reason that it shouldn't be with the Sox, as he would likely not net much in a trade. The problem is that he would then get big money in arbitration, and become a free agent in 2016. No one has addressed the question I posed earlier: "Would you give him one of those insane, long term, big contracts in 2016? I wouldn't. Let's hope that he stays healthy, has a "break out" year, and can net something of real value in a trade.

With over 4 years of service time, Beckham will be a free agent in 2016. Assuming that he has that breakout year, would you be willing to offer him one of those insane contracts, being handed out to free agents? I hope that he has a good year, and that the Sox can move him for someone of value, who is cost controlled for a few years. Unless he were to offer a "home town discount", it wouldn't seem like a good gamble, even if he has that "break out" year. There isn't enough time for him to demonstrate that he's a consistently good offensive player, before he gets to free agency.

Unless Hahn is trying to trade one of the 3 LH starters, it makes little sense that Surkamp was acquired to become the 4TH. The need was for southpaws in the bullpen, and Downs will now be the primary LH reliever. Surkamp becomes a candidate for the other. Of course, it's obvious, despite this quote from mlbtraderumors.com: "Surkamp figures to compete with those three for the fourth and fifth slots in the rotation following Hector Santiago's trade to the Angels."

This dialogue from "Money Ball" express what the Sox should do with Dunn: Billy Beane: Oh, you're special? David Justice: You pay me seven million bucks a year, man. So, yeah. Maybe I am a little bit. Billy Beane: No, man. I ain't paying you seven. Yankee's are paying half your salary. That's what the New York Yankee's think of you. They're paying you three and a half million dollars to play against 'em. Why not tell Dunn the following?: The Sox are in a rebuilding mode and need to give his at bats to one, or more of their young players. He is in a free agent year, and needs to play for a contract. The Sox are willing to release him, if he agrees to take a reduction in salary. Then he will be a free agent, and able to sign with a team of his choosing, and have the opportunity to play regularly, which will help him with his next contract. Instead of the normal transaction of assuming a portion of a contract, as part of a deal with another team, simply release him, in exchange for his "freedom", and less money. How much he would be willing to take for his freedom, is hard to guess. It has been suggested here that he would like to get out of Chicago. Is that allowed by the player's union? I suspect not, but if so, why not try it?

The young players may, or may not develop fast enough for this team to compete this year. However, even if they do, the line up is still missing a left handed, impact bat. I'm still very uncomfortable depending upon Dunn to provide the only left handed balance, in the heart of the order. Unfortunately, with the new acquisitions, it's hard to see where they now have room to add that LH bat. Whose place would that player take?

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 01:35 PM) It's still all too early but... I assume Rodon goes number one and I pray Hoffman gets passed on at two. Whom would you take if Hoffman goes second?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 26, 2013 -> 04:47 PM) Reading the translation of this, and then applying some common sense, it looks like they are going to use him as an OF. My thoughts are in the brackets. http://www.liderendeportes.com/Noticias/Be..._medium=twitter Yes, a "jardinero" is Spanish for both a gardener, and an outfielder.

QUOTE (beautox @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 06:17 AM) With Hahn and the advanced scouts doing a great job reloading the ml team with real talent that has upside, and MI being a relative strength for the sox: Semien, Sanchez, Anderson, Johnson. I would prefer the sox go with what they can develop very effectively, pitching. I doubt Rodon is there at 3 but Hoffman has top of the rotation stuff to compliment Sale and Quintana, knowing the sox philosophy as well, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him fast tracked. I agree, and the fact that Hoffman is a RH starter is another plus. Sale, Quintana and Hoffman would look pretty solid at the top of the rotation in a couple of years.

In keeping with Hahn's plan of building a solid core for the future; why not "give" Dunn to Houston, or any team for that matter, in exchange for another young player who could fill a long term need for the Sox? Just pay whatever portion of the last year of Dunn's contract, that team wants, in return for a young player who fits in the front office's 3 to 5 year plan. What portion of Dunn's contract the Sox would pay would be a function of how good the prospect is. Perhaps Stassi would be a name that might meet that description, and provide a solution to the catching void. With Castro, the Astros don't need another young catcher: http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/08/...ect-max-stassi/

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 02:04 AM) I disagree. I think you draft for need when there is no consensus pick. If a consensus top 5 pick falls to pick 20, then you go ahead and take him. But if you are the #3 pick and mock drafts have 3-4 different names going there, you can pick based on position if your scouting reports have them all going that high. I mean, it's hard to compare a pitcher to a 1B, for instance. That is a very compelling argument, with which I totally agree. I don't know why people don't concur. Everyone talks about what a "crap shoot" the baseball amateur draft is, and then they proceed to insist that "you take the best available talent". "Best talent" based upon what exactly? Of course, it will be a while before some of the draftees would be ready to be added to the roster, and it's true that the roster could look very different. However, why continue to stock pile a particular position, when you might have a choice to add a player where there is an obvious dearth of future candidates in your organization? As long as there is no clear consensus as to who is the third best talent in the draft, why not pick one of the top candidates based, at least in part, upon perceived needs?

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Dec 15, 2013 -> 08:21 AM) He won't have any success starting in the majors, it's not going to happen. If you're right, I'd rather that the Sox not waste a roster spot on him. Under those circumstances, I assume that you would rather see L. Garcia as the utility infielder, given his stellar defense. Semien should get another year at AAA, unless he's going to start.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2013 -> 06:43 AM) Because you are basing his ability as a 2 hole hitter on one year in AAA in a league that is very offense. In the major leagues, albeit a very small sample size with 2 teams that thought so much of his ability to bat second, they waived him, his splits as a 2 hole hitter are pitcher-like, .135/.200/.362. Posters are being far more realistic that if he sticks, it is because he has the ability to play several positions, which could give him a place on the bench. Elmore as a regular player is most likely a disaster. For a guy with supposed 2 hole skills, and again I realize sample size is small, his stats don't back it up. He hits over .500 swinging at the first pitch, and under .200 when not. If he was 22-23 years old, there probably could be reason for more optimism, but he is only 9 months younger than Gordon Beckham and not nearly as polished. It is way more likely he is what he is. Well, that stat is a little sobering. If it's not a function of the small sample size, that would certainly refute my argument. The kinds of skills to which I referred are some of the more "translatable" skills in baseball. The ability to take pitches, draw walks, bunt, and hit behind the runner are skills that players should be able to execute, as they progress up through the various levels of play. They are not the kinds of skills that are likely to disappear with tougher competition. Of course, we would have to expect his numbers to be significantly diminished, however is it so unreasonable to expect him to be able to still execute the tasks I listed, with respectable proficiency? I just checked his Major League split stats on hitting in various batting order slots. He has only had 37 career at bats, in the #2 hole. While those results were awful, the sample size is way to small. Maybe the problem was that Arizona and Houston didn't use him correctly. My argument is that if he is to have any significant success, it would likely be as a number 2 hitter.

It seems that most of you feel that Elmore's main asset is his unusual ability to play every position, thus automatically relegating him to a utility man. While that skill is useful, I had the impression that his best skill was his ability to execute the tasks of a number two hole hitter. His ability to bunt, take and foul off pitches, hit behind the runner and the other things about which Brett Butler raved, are the tools that intrigued me. Think of it this way; the Sox have been using Ramirez and Beckham in the two hole. Neither of them is very good at those skills, and neither sports a respectable OBP. Given the chance, which most here feel will not happen, it would be interesting to see how Elmore would compare, in those respects.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 11, 2013 -> 03:42 PM) http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=29486543&c_id=mlb http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=28672435&c_id=mlb There's a big hitch in his swing and it's rather long. If he hit .250 over a full season, I'd be surprised. He's not going to have good plate coverage and he'll have to choose whether he is looking in or out. Guys like Konerko in his prime hit .300...they can be looking in yet have a quick and strong enough swing to poke balls to center and right. Elmore does not have that. I do see a little Zobrist in the swing, but he's also a switch hitter. Either way, I don't think he's a starter. Thank you for posting the video. However, I must respectfully disagree with the perception that they show a "hitch" in his swing. It appears to be nothing more than his waiting on an off speed pitch. The videos show him staying closed, keeping his hands back, and then swinging with good results. It looks just fine. He is probably very limited in his raw talent, and he certainly is not going to hit for power, but his purported skill as a number 2 hole hitter is what has some of us intrigued.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 11, 2013 -> 04:51 PM) I think the one thing you can see is that guys are more comfortable around the other and can play a little better. Still, talent levels being what they are at that level, you are just not going to see a .240 guy suddenly start hitting .320 because he's back with his buddy. I hope that you're not suggesting that he is a ".240 hitter" based upon the 120 at bats he had last year with the Astros.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Dec 11, 2013 -> 04:36 PM) Baseball is an extraordinarily segmented and discrete game. I really doubt there was any real synergy between the two, much less that they will be able to replicate anything at the Major League level. Certainly Elmore should have to earn playing time and it should have nothing at all to do with Eaton. This quote was taken from the article which I mentioned, and linked in my opening post: "Reno leadoff man Adam Eaton, second to his teammate in batting average at .390, and Elmore have worked so well together that they have signs among themselves – give a pitch or two to steal second base, let’s work a hit-and-run. Butler has seen times when Elmore intentionally fouled a ball off after Eaton got a bad jump off first base on a stolen base attempt." While I generally agree with you about baseball being a very individual oriented, team sport, there are some places for team work.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Dec 11, 2013 -> 04:12 PM) It seems to completely be a coincidence. They didn't target Elmore, the picked him up off waivers in November after the Astros (the Astros!) didn't want him. He adds a cushion in middle infield in the event that Beckham or Ramirez or (please!) Keppinger were/are traded this offseason. He won't be given the second base job over Beckham. As for Eaton, every team in baseball would have wanted him a year ago. Hahn wisely bought low after the arm injury and after Pollock supplanted Eaton as the Dbacks CF. Perhaps it is just a coincidence. However, I'd still like to see what they could do together, reunited. He wouldn't have to replace Beckham on the roster, but could be more valuable the Gillaspie, if Beckham moved to third, which was what I was suggesting.