Lillian

I knew that you gentlemen would have some good insight on this topic. Thanks for the comments. I understand the issue better, after having read just these first few posts.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 12:50 PM) It's certainly possible it wouldn't be a disaster, it just isn't likely. Outliers are all over the place, but they're still way way less common than typical cases. I have nothing against him personally -- I've always liked him, actually. I just don't think this team is in a position to gamble on things happening contrary to historical precedent. I'm for the Sox spending money as long as it's on guys that will be valuable several years down the road, because I don't think there's enough out there to fix the whole thing in one year. Abreu is target number one (assuming the scouts think he's for real) because he fills a hole and is only 26. I like McCann too, because I think his bat will still he very useful after he moves off of C in a couple years, and that also fills a hole for us. One of those two guys, even at market rates, makes sense to me, because they make the team better next yeas and also retain value for a few years after, forming a foundation to which we can continue adding talent. I agree with you, in principle, and therefore think that Abreu is worth whatever it takes to get him, in terms of years. I see these projections of 5 years @ $10 Million and I think that seems very reasonable. There are a lot of older players, who have had their free agent contracts, who make that much, and aren't really all that good, any more. This is a kid who could reasonably be expected to perform at the top of his game for the next 6 years. The question is; What will the "top of his game" look like? I'd take my chances that it will be pretty good.

I didn't know if this had already been discussed, but I wanted to put forth an hypothesis: Pitchers should be easier to evaluate than hitters, as prospects. A pitcher's velocity, command, movement and other traits should be easier to project in terms of success vs. major league hitters, than a hitter's ability to hit Major League pitching, which he has never faced. He may look really good against amateur pitching, but how can you begin to know how he will be able to adjust to Big League pitching? Look at it this way. If a pitcher can throw the ball in the high 90's with movement, and command, and if he has effective off speed pitches to go with it, you can assume that he will be hard to hit. However, if a hitter can crush balls, with his strength and bat speed, that doesn't necessarily mean that he will be able to consistently make contact against the caliber of pitching he will face when he gets to the Majors. If this is true, given the choice, why not pick the pitcher in the Draft? In this year's Draft, the Sox will likely have a chance to pick another SS, or a RHP. If they are ranked approximately the same, I would opt for the pitcher. Moreover, the Sox need another RHP, and already used their top pick last year for a speedy SS. I'm interested to hear your perspectives on this general hypothesis, as well as your thoughts on this year's Draft.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 11:04 AM) No, the the $20m doesn't hurt you right now, it hurts you for like 3 seasons later, which happen to be the seasons you might actually have a chance at winning. Also, let's not ignore that defense. I know he doesn't belong in center, but with the Indians in 2012, he was a -16.7 defender in RF. That is insane-horribad. He's -15.6 so far this year. This is a guy who is worse than -30 runs defensively over the last two years. And he'll be 32. Come on guys, what happens to players after age 32? They get worse. And guys who already have huge flaws in their game (extreme platoon splits, garbage defense) tend to get real bad, really quickly. Why are you all so eager to pay for a 32 year old platoon player's career year all of a sudden? To add an embarrassingly bad defender to the most embarrassingly bad defense in the majors? You're not paying for prime Choo, you're paying for post-prime Choo. I love the OBP, but at this stage in his career, he's a hired gun on a contender that is willing to eat it for the final piece. That is not what this team needs. Maybe you guys haven't been watching lately -- this team BLOWS. I was at the game Saturday and left early for the first time in my life. It was just bad entertainment and not worth being there. You make a pretty convincing case against signing Choo. Is there another player who you would suggest to quickly fix this team's terrible OBP? Would you still view his acquisition negatively, if he could be signed to a 3 year deal, at $15 million per year? I'm not so sure that Sox management is thinking that they won't be competitive until 2016. Hell, by then the young, affordable pitching may not be so affordable anymore. Quintana and Santiago will be starting to earn big money, if they're still any good.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 09:58 AM) You are still paying a glorified platoon player $20 mill a year. Yes, he's very solid against RHP, but in 2 years he may be hitting .260 with no power. Do you really want to pay $20 mill a year for a guy who is putting up .260/.300/.400? With declining defense? Keep in mind those slugging numbers would probably be way worse Thanks for pointing out how bad Choo has been vs. LHP, the last two years. What happened to him? He never was that bad earlier in his career. In fact, even with the last two seasons, his career OBP vs lefties, is still .340. Well, if the Sox sign him, it will be nice to know that most of the good left handers in the league are on our team, so he wouldn't have to face them. Moreover, if it really takes $20 million a year to sign him, I'd pass, especially if it's for any more than 3 years. If he could be signed for under $15 million per year on a 3 year contract, would you make that move?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 09:35 AM) Do you guys really think we should sign Shin Soo Choo? 1. He'll be 32 2. He has always been injury prone 3. He will likely cost something like 5/$100m 4. He plays the same position as one of the only "building block" position players we have in the entire organization A year or two ago, I would have agreed with you. Then we could have had realistic hopes for a young outfield of Mitchell, Viciedo, Hawkins, or K. Walker and Trayce Thompson. Now, it looks like if may be quite a while before any of those guys are ready to be on the 25 man roster, if ever. I think there is room on this team for both A. Garcia and Choo.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 09:23 AM) See, even after all that, you're relying on Beckham/Garcia as your #2 and #3 hitters. Yes, you're right. However, Batting Garcia 3RD assumes that he is producing. With that lineup, if he doesn't produce there would be several options. Abreu, or McGann could hit in that spot. It would depend upon who was performing the best.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 09:26 AM) I'd love to see the Sox acquire Parra or Rasmus for CF. Sign me up for a Garcia-Parra/Rasmus-Choo outfield. I like your choices for CF as well, but that means Viciedo would have to move. Would you try him at 3RD again? He does have the arm. If Viciedo doesn't play 3RD, then you have to find a taker for Dunn, in order to make room for Abreu and Viciedo at 1B and DH.

If they could move Ramirez and his salary, I'd like to see Semien get a shot at SS. His ability to draw walks is what intrigues me. Wouldn't that be refreshing? If the Sox draft Trea Turner, he will be expected to be the SS in 2 or 3 years. Here is my realistic potential line up for next year, at least vs. RHP: RF Choo 2B Beckham CF Garcia C McGann 1B Abreu DH Dunn LF Viciedo 3B ??? (Ideally, a LH hitting decent fielder, if there is one out there and available) SS Semien That means de Aza is either gone, or the 4Th outfielder

Choo is finishing on a pretty good hot streak. His season's OBP of .422 is 4TH best in the Majors. His bat would go a long way toward improving the Sox terrible team On Base Percentage. If they could sign Abreu and Choo, they may not have that much more work to do to fix this pathetic offense. I'd like to see Semien get some time at 3B as another step toward improving the OBP.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 14, 2013 -> 08:27 PM) The biggest concern with him is that he is 31 and someone may offer him a 6-year deal or something similar. I'd be kind of worried about giving him that long of a deal. I have always been a big fan of him though. I agree. I hate giving players his age long term contracts. 3 or 4 years would be reasonable, wouldn't it?

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 14, 2013 -> 06:14 PM) You do have a good point about bringing in guys who smash RHP though. Looked it up and there are only 5 LH starters in our division, none on the Tigers, and the only one on the Indians is one the Sox have already roughed up, Scott Kazmir. If the Sox think they can put Avisail in CF or are ok with ADA out there for another year then I'd be game for putting Choo in a corner where he would be passable defensively. I didn't even realize that the Reds had moved him to CF. Isn't that the explanation for his defensive struggles? He was a decent RF for the Indians. I agree that he would probably be just fine back in RF. I think he would be a great option for the Sox as a lead off hitter, with that very high OBP, even though he does have some pop.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 14, 2013 -> 03:03 PM) There have been people suggesting him. Problem is, he's really not a "very good outfielder". I know some people said UZR wasn't that good but when comparing apples to apples it works, De Aza had a -3 something UZR rating and Choo had a -15 something UZR, the worst in the league. If they're looking to improve their D I don't think he's a good fit. That's interesting. I had the impression that he was considered very good defensively. Thanks

I haven't read anyone suggesting Shin Soo Chu, in quite a while. Why aren't more of you advocating his acquisition? His contract hasn't been extended has it? He's an On Base machine, left handed and a very good outfielder. I'd prefer him to Pence, mainly because he's a LH hitter. Chu is really good against RHP, and as I have pointed out before, our Division has very few good LH pitchers. The Sox could use several bats that would be effective vs. some of the very good right handers on the Tigers and Indians.

The only guy who might be ready to play a solid SS, at the MLB level, is Marcus Semien. If he can produce anywhere near the level of OBP, that he put up in AA, he would be a suitable replacement. However, so far at AAA, he hasn't been able to match that. And, of course, he is not going to provide the defense which Alexei can. Maybe it wouldn't hurt to hang on to him for at least one more year, especially in order to help try and sign Jose Abreu. After that, maybe they will be able to turn to Tim Anderson.

Do you think that the Sox have dumped much of their significant payroll with the specific intention of being able to go after Abreu? How long do you suppose that they have known that he was defecting? I've long felt that the elite Cuban players are legitimate, even if the overall level of competition may not be much better than AA Minor League ball. The difference is, no one continues to play in AA when they have demonstrated that they are elite. I think that we can accept that Cuba has a few really good players, and Morales, Cespedes, Puig and most likely Abreu, are the real deal. A guy can't put up the kind of numbers that Abreu has, without being something special. Hey, if we are looking at a guy who is the best hitter in his country, I say he's certainly worth the gamble. The Sox have plenty of "athletic, toolsy" guys, who can't hit a baseball. We don't need another one of those. We need a guy who is a real offense weapon, and not a former football player, who we hope can learn to play baseball. I personally drool over the possibility of having Garcia and Abreu in the same lineup. They just could provide a great tandem, in the middle of the order for a long time to come. Wouldn't that be refreshing, after this season's offensive ineptitude? You don't normally have an opportunity to sign a free agent until he has passed much of his prime. Why not try to lock Abreu up through his prime? I'd like to see them give him more years, and less per year. I'd want him until he's around 32. It's rare to be able to get a guy for his prime, and not have to pay for the out years, just as the Angels have done with Pujols and the Yankees did with A Rod.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 4, 2013 -> 05:17 PM) It was the first time they have ever gone winless on a road trip of 7 games or more. That is an incredible stat. In well over a century, the Sox never went winless on a road trip of 7 games or more. I wonder if any other older franchise has had anywhere close to that record. After all, most road trips are at least 7 games, and most teams usually have losing records on the road.

I just caught the last couple of outs, and heard Hawk say that "it was the first time in White Sox franchise history that the Sox dropped all 7 games of a road trip. That cannot possibly be true. What the Hell was that about? A seven game losing streak on the road has to be fairly common. I'm confused.

If the Sox trade Peavy and Ramirez, I'd like to see a return that included a RHP ready to join the rotation for 2014, and a power, left handed bat. I guess if it's St. Louis, one of Wacha, Martinez or Jenkins would work. Wacha is probably unrealistic and Martinez scares me a little, because of his size. Jenkins is probably obtainable as he is the 3RD ranked RHP in the Card's farm system. However, he probably won't be ready to start in the Big Leagues for another year or two. Matt Adams could satisfy the need for a power, left handed bat. He's ready and has little more to prove at the Minor League level. But then, how good he'll be as a Big Leaguer is the question, as it is with all prospects.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 26, 2013 -> 03:01 PM) The issue with these guys is...none of them have surpassed their usefulness. If the Sox spent $25 million next offseason on free agents, kept that whole list of players around, and found some way to remind their players how to catch the ball and do a rundown, they could possibly field a competitive team next year and do so with a lower salary than this season. So...it's up to other teams to give the Sox a good enough reason to decide right now...not to. Good post and very valid. Let's hope that Hahn is thinking the same way.

If Peavy is traded, who exactly is our RH starting pitcher going to be next season? Are they really going to let Erik Johnson or D. Axelrod be their only RH starter? I'm just asking. My guess is that they don't get good enough offers to justify trading Rios, Peavy or anyone else who could still be on the team next year. And instead, they try to put together a middle of the order, and compete.

I knew that it was a mistake to mention Sizemore. Look, that just happens to be my preference for what might be an affordable solution to finding one of the two decent bats, without a long term contract. He will surely want to sign for no more than all of 2014, and hope to prove himself, so that he can sign a better long term deal. That could suit the Sox, if they are only looking for a way to compete next year. The point is; if you don't think he could help, suggest someone else. It doesn't matter who it is, as long as he can contribute, and it won't require a long term commitment. Suggest someone.

This complete rebuild strategy is interesting, however the organization does not have enough near ready talent in its farm system to completely rebuild a contender, any time soon. What it does have is a lot of pretty good pitching depth. This season is a lost cause, but why couldn't they add a couple of pieces, and put together a pretty solid contender for next year? A starting staff of Sale, Peavey, Santiago, Quintana and Danks does represent an unusually left handed weighted rotation, but it would be pretty solid. Erik Johnson and Axelrod could provide some depth. The reliever core has been very good, and they could piece together another effective bullpen for next season. Therefore, why not use the money coming off the books for Konerko, and Thornton to acquire a solid left handed bat, and try to add another good right handed hitter? The offensive problem with this team is that they have not had a good middle of the order. Two decent hitters, one right and the other left handed, to replace Konerko and Dunn, in the middle of the order, could vastly improve the offense. Dunn probably can't be traded, and with only one year left, after this season, it shouldn't be a big issue, as long as he doesn't have to hit in the middle of the order. He could actually be sufficiently productive, batting lower in the order. Hey, I'd take 40 homers and 100 RBI's from the 6TH or 7TH hitter in the order, wouldn't you, even if he can't hit over .200 and has an OBP under .350 ? Move de Aza to left field, and bat him lower in the order. His OBP is not high enough for a lead off hitter. Another possibility would be to trade him. Trade Ramirez for a legitimate leadoff hitter, who is a good defensive SS, and hopefully cheaper than the $9.5 Million he will cost next year. They may have to include another player in the trade, but even a veteran would be fine, until Anderson is ready, some time around 2015. Dump Keppinger and his contract, and go with Gillaspie and Morel at 3RD, perhaps platooned. Keep Beckham, and hope that Micah Johnson will be ready when Gordon starts making the big money. Rios is fine until some of the young outfielders are ready. Maybe Hawkins, Jacobs or Thompson can replace him, but not for a couple more years. Gillaspie is a good fit at 3RD, at least against RHP. He's young enough to still be around for the rebuild after next season. Let Phegley and Flowers fight it out for the catching slot. Viciedo is big question. If he's not ready to be a big offensive contributor, they have got to replace him with someone who is. Find a productive hitting Centerfielder (did I hear someone whisper Grady Sizemore? Shhh, it wasn't me) Sign another middle of the order hitter, probably to replace Paulie at 1B. Kendry Morales comes to mind and is a switch hitter. His home run production would likely rise at the Cell. One possible Lineup: SS New defensive and decent OBP acquisition 2B Beckham RF Rios CF True middle of the order hitter (Grady Sizemore) 1B Left handed hitting, prototypical middle of the order hitter. Kendry Morales would work, and is a switch hitter. DH Dunn/Viciedo platoon C Phegley 3B Gillaspie/Morel platoon LF De Aza or Viciedo If there are better choices than Sizemore and Morales, fine. The concept is to keep the contender ready pitching, and acquire the middle of the order offense, required to compete. If you sign two middle of the order hitters and trade for the lead off hitter/SS, it looks realistically feasible to me.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Jul 13, 2013 -> 09:47 PM) Flowers actually did his job and got a single, saying he should have been pinch hit for is pretty silly right now. McEwing shouldn't have sent Keppinger Yes, but it would have forced a pitching change and might have set up a big inning. Hindsight says it worked out because Flowers got the single, but I would have rather had Rios batting than Flowers, and with another base runner. If Flowers is the best we can do with the game on the line, we really are pathetic. Oh, I know he had a decent night, and did his job on that at bat, but he has been terrible this year.

How does Robin not pinch hit Dunn for Flowers, which would have brought in the lefty, and then he could have sent Rios to the plate for Dunn. I don't get it.