Lillian

Why not target 2015 as the first year to really compete? Under that scenario, the big piece is Abreu, because he is young enough to be a factor in 2015 and beyond. The young pitching will still be affordable in 2015 and if the Sox don't commit to any more long term contracts, and with Dunn gone, they could then use the funds saved to fill in the missing pieces in free agency, after next season. I think that the key is to retain the young pitching, and spend the next season trying to assemble a formidable middle of the order, which is where this team has the biggest hole. Konerko and Dunn were terrible as 3 and 4 hitters. If Garcia and Abreu can replace them, and one other bat, can emerge or be acquired in free agency, the supporting players would not be that hard to find. That third middle of the order hitter should be left handed, and bat between Garcia and Abreu. If Viciedo develops into a stud, then they could have an exceptionally formidable line up. Centerfield is an issue, however if the offense were solid in the middle of the order, the Sox would have the luxury of opting for a good defensive center fielder with an average bat, which is much easier to find. They have the number 3 draft choice to add to the mix, and that player may also be ready to contribute by 2015. If they can add Abreu, and keep the payroll under control, next year could be devoted to discovering what they have in young guys like Garcia, Semien, E. Johnson, and this year's draft choice. Then there are the very young guys, further back in the pipeline, like Hawkins and Tim Anderson. Even guys like Viciedo and Gillaspie might reveal much more about their true value after one more season. For my part, I would be very content to patiently wait one more year, providing that there were a plan with some realistic hope of competing in 2015. Wouldn't you?

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 06:12 PM) In regards to how bad Beckham is ... he had 24 RBI in 408 plate appearances. Is that possible? Getz actually had 18 RBI in 237 at bats. How can Beckham be so unproductive for a No. 8 overall pick in the draft?? Considering how high he was drafted, he has been such a bust. I'm sick of him. Beckham also had five stolen bases meaning he also is a bust in the speed category. Hopefully Hahn recognizes he has a replacement there in Semien and he can try to acquire a 3Bman to replace that black hole as well. Get to work, Mr. Hahn on your plan. Yes, it's possible, when you consider that he only had 81 at bats with runners in scoring position. It would have only taken 8 more hits in that stat, for him to end up a .300 hitter with RISP. The sample size is just too small.

How much would you guess Beckham will get in arbitration? That's the key for me. If he can be retained without a big impact on the payroll, I'd like to see him have one more shot. When he was healthy, he was hitting much better, after adopting his new approach and stance. He was a .300 hitter every month, until the last two months of the season, even with missing May with the broken hamate bone. The other encouraging thing to me is that he hit RHP at a very respectable level, all year. He finished with a .287 avg. and .347 OBP vs. RHP. It seems reasonable to anticipate that he'll do better vs lefties, next year. After all, they are usually easier for right handed hitters to hit. I know that his power numbers were way down, but that is likely the result of the weakened wrist. The sad part is that even if he finally realizes his potential, it would be just in time for free agency. Let's see if he can get it together, and maybe have some trade value. With Semien, L. Garcia, C. Sanchez, Tim Anderson and Micah Johnson, there are enough promising middle infielders to make Beckham expendable. The problem is that most of those guys are not ready, and Beckham's trade value if very low. One more year might help on all counts.

For various reasons, not the least of which, it was a waste of time, I really didn't watch that many games this year. It's hard to get a good sense of just how bad de Aza's base running was, from the box scores. How bad was it?

Except for the poor base running, de Aza was not the biggest problem for the Sox this year. If a guy like Pence is worth $18 million a year, de Aza is worth whatever arbitration grants him. He may not be that great, but his production is decent for the money he'll cost. There are bigger problems to fix on this team. Sign Abreu, trade Alexei for salary relief and give Semien a shot at SS. Find a catcher who can be a little productive, and someone to hit for Gillaspie, vs. lefties. Sit Dunn vs lefties, as well. All those things are more important than getting rid of de Aza, and his modest contract.

The most encouraging thing about de Aza's season is that he seems to have finally become a productive hitter vs LH pitching. He actually hit them better than righties. With the kind of free agent salaries that are likely to be paid this off season, he could be an affordable and serviceable Left fielder. He shouldn't be in CF, but he's more than adequate in Left. The problem is what to do with Viciedo. If Garcia can really play CF, then Viciedo's arm should play pretty well in RF. It shouldn't be that much of an adjustment for him to move from LF to RF. Unless Viciedo's hitting improves significantly, his bat doesn't play well at first base or DH. Moreover, Abreu may be there.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFan05 @ Sep 28, 2013 -> 08:51 PM) Allow me to make a leap. Starting center fielder- Grady Sizemore. Get ready to be "flamed". I was really beaten up pretty good, when I suggested it. But, just between the two of us, I think it's a great idea. SHHHH! I would think that Sizemore would want a one year deal, so that he could prove he's healthy and still productive. That would be even better for the Sox.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 20, 2013 -> 10:09 AM) Kolek is a HS pitcher. If they go pitcher that high I think it'd be a college arm. They could go HS bat though. I really like Alex Jackson. Jackson would be a great pick. Does anyone know what the chances are that he signs? Hasn't he signed a letter of intent to go to Oregon?

QUOTE (SpainSOXfan09 @ Sep 20, 2013 -> 03:32 AM) Does anyone on the board agree with Tyler Kolek as a safe pick at number 3 which is we will probably land at? Big bulk frame at 6'5 240lbs. He has a great FB (95-98) with a good curve. I know he has been talked about before but does he have the upside you would look for in defending taking a pitcher in the draft VS. a polished hitter? I think he would be ready for the bigs in 2015?? That is who I'm hoping for, instead of Trea Turner.

I knew that you gentlemen would have some good insight on this topic. Thanks for the comments. I understand the issue better, after having read just these first few posts.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 12:50 PM) It's certainly possible it wouldn't be a disaster, it just isn't likely. Outliers are all over the place, but they're still way way less common than typical cases. I have nothing against him personally -- I've always liked him, actually. I just don't think this team is in a position to gamble on things happening contrary to historical precedent. I'm for the Sox spending money as long as it's on guys that will be valuable several years down the road, because I don't think there's enough out there to fix the whole thing in one year. Abreu is target number one (assuming the scouts think he's for real) because he fills a hole and is only 26. I like McCann too, because I think his bat will still he very useful after he moves off of C in a couple years, and that also fills a hole for us. One of those two guys, even at market rates, makes sense to me, because they make the team better next yeas and also retain value for a few years after, forming a foundation to which we can continue adding talent. I agree with you, in principle, and therefore think that Abreu is worth whatever it takes to get him, in terms of years. I see these projections of 5 years @ $10 Million and I think that seems very reasonable. There are a lot of older players, who have had their free agent contracts, who make that much, and aren't really all that good, any more. This is a kid who could reasonably be expected to perform at the top of his game for the next 6 years. The question is; What will the "top of his game" look like? I'd take my chances that it will be pretty good.

I didn't know if this had already been discussed, but I wanted to put forth an hypothesis: Pitchers should be easier to evaluate than hitters, as prospects. A pitcher's velocity, command, movement and other traits should be easier to project in terms of success vs. major league hitters, than a hitter's ability to hit Major League pitching, which he has never faced. He may look really good against amateur pitching, but how can you begin to know how he will be able to adjust to Big League pitching? Look at it this way. If a pitcher can throw the ball in the high 90's with movement, and command, and if he has effective off speed pitches to go with it, you can assume that he will be hard to hit. However, if a hitter can crush balls, with his strength and bat speed, that doesn't necessarily mean that he will be able to consistently make contact against the caliber of pitching he will face when he gets to the Majors. If this is true, given the choice, why not pick the pitcher in the Draft? In this year's Draft, the Sox will likely have a chance to pick another SS, or a RHP. If they are ranked approximately the same, I would opt for the pitcher. Moreover, the Sox need another RHP, and already used their top pick last year for a speedy SS. I'm interested to hear your perspectives on this general hypothesis, as well as your thoughts on this year's Draft.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 11:04 AM) No, the the $20m doesn't hurt you right now, it hurts you for like 3 seasons later, which happen to be the seasons you might actually have a chance at winning. Also, let's not ignore that defense. I know he doesn't belong in center, but with the Indians in 2012, he was a -16.7 defender in RF. That is insane-horribad. He's -15.6 so far this year. This is a guy who is worse than -30 runs defensively over the last two years. And he'll be 32. Come on guys, what happens to players after age 32? They get worse. And guys who already have huge flaws in their game (extreme platoon splits, garbage defense) tend to get real bad, really quickly. Why are you all so eager to pay for a 32 year old platoon player's career year all of a sudden? To add an embarrassingly bad defender to the most embarrassingly bad defense in the majors? You're not paying for prime Choo, you're paying for post-prime Choo. I love the OBP, but at this stage in his career, he's a hired gun on a contender that is willing to eat it for the final piece. That is not what this team needs. Maybe you guys haven't been watching lately -- this team BLOWS. I was at the game Saturday and left early for the first time in my life. It was just bad entertainment and not worth being there. You make a pretty convincing case against signing Choo. Is there another player who you would suggest to quickly fix this team's terrible OBP? Would you still view his acquisition negatively, if he could be signed to a 3 year deal, at $15 million per year? I'm not so sure that Sox management is thinking that they won't be competitive until 2016. Hell, by then the young, affordable pitching may not be so affordable anymore. Quintana and Santiago will be starting to earn big money, if they're still any good.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 09:58 AM) You are still paying a glorified platoon player $20 mill a year. Yes, he's very solid against RHP, but in 2 years he may be hitting .260 with no power. Do you really want to pay $20 mill a year for a guy who is putting up .260/.300/.400? With declining defense? Keep in mind those slugging numbers would probably be way worse Thanks for pointing out how bad Choo has been vs. LHP, the last two years. What happened to him? He never was that bad earlier in his career. In fact, even with the last two seasons, his career OBP vs lefties, is still .340. Well, if the Sox sign him, it will be nice to know that most of the good left handers in the league are on our team, so he wouldn't have to face them. Moreover, if it really takes $20 million a year to sign him, I'd pass, especially if it's for any more than 3 years. If he could be signed for under $15 million per year on a 3 year contract, would you make that move?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 09:35 AM) Do you guys really think we should sign Shin Soo Choo? 1. He'll be 32 2. He has always been injury prone 3. He will likely cost something like 5/$100m 4. He plays the same position as one of the only "building block" position players we have in the entire organization A year or two ago, I would have agreed with you. Then we could have had realistic hopes for a young outfield of Mitchell, Viciedo, Hawkins, or K. Walker and Trayce Thompson. Now, it looks like if may be quite a while before any of those guys are ready to be on the 25 man roster, if ever. I think there is room on this team for both A. Garcia and Choo.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 09:23 AM) See, even after all that, you're relying on Beckham/Garcia as your #2 and #3 hitters. Yes, you're right. However, Batting Garcia 3RD assumes that he is producing. With that lineup, if he doesn't produce there would be several options. Abreu, or McGann could hit in that spot. It would depend upon who was performing the best.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 09:26 AM) I'd love to see the Sox acquire Parra or Rasmus for CF. Sign me up for a Garcia-Parra/Rasmus-Choo outfield. I like your choices for CF as well, but that means Viciedo would have to move. Would you try him at 3RD again? He does have the arm. If Viciedo doesn't play 3RD, then you have to find a taker for Dunn, in order to make room for Abreu and Viciedo at 1B and DH.

If they could move Ramirez and his salary, I'd like to see Semien get a shot at SS. His ability to draw walks is what intrigues me. Wouldn't that be refreshing? If the Sox draft Trea Turner, he will be expected to be the SS in 2 or 3 years. Here is my realistic potential line up for next year, at least vs. RHP: RF Choo 2B Beckham CF Garcia C McGann 1B Abreu DH Dunn LF Viciedo 3B ??? (Ideally, a LH hitting decent fielder, if there is one out there and available) SS Semien That means de Aza is either gone, or the 4Th outfielder

Choo is finishing on a pretty good hot streak. His season's OBP of .422 is 4TH best in the Majors. His bat would go a long way toward improving the Sox terrible team On Base Percentage. If they could sign Abreu and Choo, they may not have that much more work to do to fix this pathetic offense. I'd like to see Semien get some time at 3B as another step toward improving the OBP.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 14, 2013 -> 08:27 PM) The biggest concern with him is that he is 31 and someone may offer him a 6-year deal or something similar. I'd be kind of worried about giving him that long of a deal. I have always been a big fan of him though. I agree. I hate giving players his age long term contracts. 3 or 4 years would be reasonable, wouldn't it?

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 14, 2013 -> 06:14 PM) You do have a good point about bringing in guys who smash RHP though. Looked it up and there are only 5 LH starters in our division, none on the Tigers, and the only one on the Indians is one the Sox have already roughed up, Scott Kazmir. If the Sox think they can put Avisail in CF or are ok with ADA out there for another year then I'd be game for putting Choo in a corner where he would be passable defensively. I didn't even realize that the Reds had moved him to CF. Isn't that the explanation for his defensive struggles? He was a decent RF for the Indians. I agree that he would probably be just fine back in RF. I think he would be a great option for the Sox as a lead off hitter, with that very high OBP, even though he does have some pop.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 14, 2013 -> 03:03 PM) There have been people suggesting him. Problem is, he's really not a "very good outfielder". I know some people said UZR wasn't that good but when comparing apples to apples it works, De Aza had a -3 something UZR rating and Choo had a -15 something UZR, the worst in the league. If they're looking to improve their D I don't think he's a good fit. That's interesting. I had the impression that he was considered very good defensively. Thanks

I haven't read anyone suggesting Shin Soo Chu, in quite a while. Why aren't more of you advocating his acquisition? His contract hasn't been extended has it? He's an On Base machine, left handed and a very good outfielder. I'd prefer him to Pence, mainly because he's a LH hitter. Chu is really good against RHP, and as I have pointed out before, our Division has very few good LH pitchers. The Sox could use several bats that would be effective vs. some of the very good right handers on the Tigers and Indians.

The only guy who might be ready to play a solid SS, at the MLB level, is Marcus Semien. If he can produce anywhere near the level of OBP, that he put up in AA, he would be a suitable replacement. However, so far at AAA, he hasn't been able to match that. And, of course, he is not going to provide the defense which Alexei can. Maybe it wouldn't hurt to hang on to him for at least one more year, especially in order to help try and sign Jose Abreu. After that, maybe they will be able to turn to Tim Anderson.

Do you think that the Sox have dumped much of their significant payroll with the specific intention of being able to go after Abreu? How long do you suppose that they have known that he was defecting? I've long felt that the elite Cuban players are legitimate, even if the overall level of competition may not be much better than AA Minor League ball. The difference is, no one continues to play in AA when they have demonstrated that they are elite. I think that we can accept that Cuba has a few really good players, and Morales, Cespedes, Puig and most likely Abreu, are the real deal. A guy can't put up the kind of numbers that Abreu has, without being something special. Hey, if we are looking at a guy who is the best hitter in his country, I say he's certainly worth the gamble. The Sox have plenty of "athletic, toolsy" guys, who can't hit a baseball. We don't need another one of those. We need a guy who is a real offense weapon, and not a former football player, who we hope can learn to play baseball. I personally drool over the possibility of having Garcia and Abreu in the same lineup. They just could provide a great tandem, in the middle of the order for a long time to come. Wouldn't that be refreshing, after this season's offensive ineptitude? You don't normally have an opportunity to sign a free agent until he has passed much of his prime. Why not try to lock Abreu up through his prime? I'd like to see them give him more years, and less per year. I'd want him until he's around 32. It's rare to be able to get a guy for his prime, and not have to pay for the out years, just as the Angels have done with Pujols and the Yankees did with A Rod.