Dick Allen

They may need Peavy: The Chicago Sun Times reports that Rich Harden has a small tear in his shoulder joint, calling it "just severe enough that some players might seek surgery but slight enough to be in a range often treated effectively with a strengthening program."

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jan 18, 2009 -> 12:51 AM) Garland is not terrible. People tend to rate the players they see everyday way lower than ones they never see like f***ing Oliver Perez. I wish we could get Jon back. I realize it aint happening though. Garland is what he is. You're right he's not terrible and the Angels were at least at one time, willing to pay him 8 figures for 2009. What I don't understand is Garland is getting ripped for his 2008 ERA 4.90, WHIP which was poor at 1.51 and his weak K rate 4.1,yet, Jeff Marquez would make a fine #4 starter, ignoring his AAA ERA 4.69, WHIP 1.45 and K rate 3.4. Marquez, a lot here say, is a quality pitcher. They base it all on KW's comments on a conference call after he dumps salary obviously thinking KW would actually say he had a long way to go to be a major league pitcher, and on a 4 year old scouting report. I was never a big Garland lover, but he will basically give you the exact same thing Vazquez does without the strikeouts, and he generally wins a couple more games. He's definitely "worth" $7-8 million a year.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 17, 2009 -> 06:01 PM) http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,239430.column Latest Phil Rogers column, about fiscal responsibility of the Dodgers and White Sox this offseason. By the way, is the $92-94 million payroll figure taking into account the money the Phillies are supposedly sending for Thome? If not, our "real" payroll is essentially down in the $85-90 million range. Maybe it doesn't include Viciedo's signing bonus, though...which has been equated by KW to Swisher's 2009 contract in terms of a tit-for-tat replacement. Finally, Rogers mentions 3B Javier Castillo (a name I don't think I've seen once) as a sleeper/darkhorse candidate for the position. I'll stick with Eider Torres as my darkhorse, although he's have to beat our either Betemit or Lillibridge. I'm sure the first one won't happen (since KW is our GM), but maybe the second one will and Lillibridge will end up the starting SS in Charlotte, or starting CF (although, from everything you read, he would be most valuable as a trade chip with other organizations at SS). I don't see why the Phillies would be sending money to the Sox to pay Thome after he performed well enough with the Phillies picking up half the tab for a couple years for the option to vest. Its like saying, if he plays really well for you, and/or stays healthy. we will give you more money. I really doubt they are still paying anything. PHILADELPHIA — Pat Gillick understood that by accepting the job as Philadelphia Phillies general manager, he had two major issues to contend with before spring training. On Wednesday, he went a long way toward solving the bigger of the two issues. "It's always difficult to move someone with (Jim Thome's) talent level," Gillick said. But with National League Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard primed to return, Gillick and the Phillies tentatively agreed to trade first baseman Thome to the Chicago White Sox for center fielder Aaron Rowand and a pair of minor league prospects. The Phillies also agreed to pay $22 million of the $46 million owed to Thome. I'm pretty sure the $22 million has already been shelled out.

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Jan 17, 2009 -> 06:58 PM) Again, tRA eliminates the factors that a pitcher cannot control, so in other words Javy has been screwed over by defense and his home ballpark. This past season for example, Javy is a fly ball pitcher with Quentin, Swish/Griffey and Dye roaming his outfield and we're expecting him to have huge success? His BABIP was .316, the highest it's been over any of the last 6 years, he was set up to fail this year and I think it's unfair to criticise him for that. Or maybe it's public perception that's garbage. Why are other pitchers who outperform Javy with the same defense "worth" significantly less? Garland and Javy had the same defense, pitched in the same park in 2006. Garland had a better ERA, won more games, lost fewer games and your stat says Javy wasn't only worth more than him, but $12 million more. He even gives up more homers than Garland. Walks more than Garland. Apparently the outfielders not being able to jump 75 feet in the air is screwing him as well.Don't you find a flaw with that? No matter what team Javy has pitched with, and he's pitched for 4 of them now, he just keeps getting screwed by his defense. I think your stat basically puts a premium on a strikeout saying all the other stuff the pitcher can't control.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 17, 2009 -> 11:48 AM) it was the same injury. Being in good physical shape doesn't really matter in this type of injury. This isn't a joint rpoblem or a cartilage problem where the player has a surgery and it's just a matter of getting range of motion and strength back. for these problems the sronger you are before surgery the quicker you come back. This was a tendon repair where they had to stitch pieces of tendon together and allow them to heal before they could begin stretching or strengthening. It's usually 2-3 months before they even allow stretching which makes the muscle weaker. My best guess is that they used an augmentation device in the tendon and felt that it gave the tendon enough tensile strength to progress earlier and more aggressive. this is a bonus for the Sox and should help solidify the rotation. It was always assumed he would be in the bullpen when he came back. If he came back earlier, do you think starting and throwing more pitches putting more pressure on the tendon could cause a major setback? Its great for Jose to work hard and try to get back sooner, but isn't there a danger even if it feels well now that it is the wrong thing to do? I have been one of Jose's biggest backers on this site, even when he was struggling. I think his rehab shows what kind of player he really is. I'm sure he has more than enough money to live the rest of his life pretty comfortably and he has another $10 million coming. There's really no telling how old he really is, so it would be easy for him to take a very conservate approach to rehab and if he couldn't pitch, he could just collect his paycheck and ride off into the sunset. He wants to earn his money. There is no substitution for pride.

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Jan 17, 2009 -> 10:19 AM) tRA is a fairly new metric, I think WAR has been around for a little longer. I can link you to some good sites if you want to learn about them, I would just post the links here but I don't get the feeling that anyone's particularly receptive towards the fact that there may be other ways of evaluating players and so I'd rather not waste my time. Just let me know. Any way to evaluate Javy Vazquez's 3 year stint as a White Sox is worth $85 million, or $28.3 million a year for a guy who 2 out of the 3 years had gave up more runs than league average and was below .500 on a team that was quite a bit above .500, is more than a little flawed.

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Jan 16, 2009 -> 11:45 PM) Vazquez is worth a whole lot more than $11.5m a year, he's really a terrific pitcher, here are his last three seasons by tRA and WAR: 2006: tRA- 3.57 (lgtRA- 5.11) WAR- 6.0 2007: tRA- 3.56 (lgtRA- 4.99) WAR- 5.9 2008: tRA- 3.51 (lgtRA- 4.87) WAR- 5.8 Currently one win on the open market is worth I believe around $4.8m, now don't quote me on that, but I think that is the mark (and please someone correct me if I'm wrong), so by that value Vazquez has been worth $28.8m, $28.32m and $27.84m over the last three years respectively. Garland on the other hand, here are his tRA and WAR totals over the last three seasons: 2006: tRA- 4.58 (lgtRA- 5.11) WAR- 3.5 2007: tRA- 5.50 (lgtRA- 4.99) WAR- 1.1 2008: tRA- 5.74 (lgtRA- 4.87) WAR- 0.4 And going by the same value as before he was worth $16.8m, $5.28m and $1.92m over the last three years. Also you mentioned Buehrle so I thought I'd chuck him in here: 2006: tRA- 5.22 (lgtRA- 5.11) WAR- 2 2007: tRA- 4.57 (lgtRA- 4.99) WAR- 3.1 2008: tRA- 4.03 (lgtRA- 4.87) WAR- 4.5 Which would have made him worth $9.6m, $14.88m and $21.6m. Now because WCSox and I were discussing Oliver Perez I'll throw him in too: 2006: tRA- 5.40 (lgtRA- 5.11) WAR- 0.3 (In very limited PT it must be noted) 2007: tRA- 4.19 (lgtRA- 4.99) WAR- 3.6 2008: tRA- 4.98 (lgtRA- 4.87) WAR- 1.7 Making him worth $1.44m, $17.28m and $8.16m over the three years. So over those three years Vazquez was worth $84.94m and he was paid $35.5m (a net underpay of $49.44m), Garland was worth $24m and he was paid $29m (a net overpay of $5m), Buehrle was worth $46.08m and he was paid $31.25m (a net underpay of $14.83m) and finally Oliver Perez was worth a combined $26.88m and was paid $10.725m (net underpay of $16.155m). (Contract values all from Cot's). I was more trying to make the point that if he can't realise the obvious flaws in the ERA and ERA+ statistics then it is going to be difficult to have a discussion with him because, fundamentally, he just doesn't know the game well enough, although reading back I realise it does sound like I'm saying "use my metric or you're an idiot". Amended. It really is. You mention someone doesn't "know the game well enough", and you cite some crazy stats that have a pitcher who was : 11-12 4.84 ERA for a team that won 90 games 15-8 3.74 ERA for a team that lost 90 games 12-16 4.67 ERA for a team that won a division worth almost $30 million a year for those 3 years. In other words, if he was paid what your crazy stats think he should be paid, Javy Vazquez basically should be the highest paid player in baseball history on the basis of a 38-36 record with a 4.40 ERA. You even have his 2006 performance worth more than his 2007 performance. I figure I have a little bit of knowledge when it comes to baseball, and just by looking at stats and the games, I would think Javy was much better in 2007 than he was in 2006. Jon Garland on the other hand was 18-7 4.51 ERA 10-13 4.23 ERA 14-8 4.90 ERA According to your fine stats and "knowledge of the game" Garland's 42-28 record and 4.54 ERA over the same time (during the 3 seasons Garland pitched 11 total fewer innings than Vazquez and gave up 4 more earned runs) those numbers are "worth" $20 million a year less than Vazquez. An average of 3 2/3 innings a year and 1.3 runs a year, is worth $20 million . In fact, pitching on the same team in 2006, Garland's 18-7 4.51 vs. Vazquez 11-12 4.84 is worth $12 million less. LOL. Nice stats. According to you 14-8 4.90 ERA worth 1.92 million if its Jon Garland, 12-16 4.67 ERA worth 27.84 million if you're Javy Vazquez. I don't think there are many that understand that game. Scott Boras has his eye on you. If he ever takes over for Trump on "The Apprentice", you would have to be a favorite.

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Jan 16, 2009 -> 06:36 PM) Cherry-picking stats? I used tRA, probably the best stat currently available for evaluating a pitchers ability (along with tRA* and tRA+) as well as WAR, you use the awful ERA+ stat, really, if you can't see how flawed that metric is then it's impossible for me to have a discussion with you about pitchers and a pitchers ability. How did Mark Buerhle stack up after 2006? I'm not saying Garland is the equivalent of Buerhle. Garland had a bad second half. He's still a better than average starter. If Javy Vazquez is worth $11.5 million a year, Garland is going to be a bargain for the team he pitches for in 2009.

Pie won't be released. Some team will give up something for him. As far as the criticism the Cubs are getting on here for "giving up" on him, when you are trying to win how long of a rope do you give a guy? If Lillibridge, Getz, Fields, Owens start out hitting .220 in 50 AB, I'm sure many here including me will be calling for a replacement. The one area I may think differently on, is the Cubs should have some room to work with in their division. You'd think they would want to give Pie another shot at least before cutting the cord, unless they are totally convinced he will never hit. Its not like the Reed Johnson/Fukudome platoon currently planned for CF is of all star calibur.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 16, 2009 -> 02:23 PM) I don't see JG getting his desired $13M per over multiple years. I think he's under $10M. The buying side of the market is drying up everywhere but NY and Boston, and since he isn't going there, he's going to be very disappointed. There's not a chance. I just wonder what kind of offers he's getting. I would doubt he's even getting $8 million a year offers.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 16, 2009 -> 02:06 PM) I really thought Jon was the Ex-Sox pitcher who was most likely to come back here, until I read about his disconnect from Ozzie. It kind of makes it doubtful if it is true. Ozzie has said he'd love to have him back. I think what's keeping him away is what I read earlier this week. He still wants $13 million a year.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Jan 15, 2009 -> 07:21 AM) The Marlins had only one starter hit over .277 last year-Hanley. If they added Cabrera's bat, he would be an improvement. I'm going by published reports that say the Marlins might be interested. Whether there's truth to it, who knows. But their offense needs help. With the Braves, Phillies and Mets making improvements, the Marlins need to add as well. Where would they play Uggla? 32 homers ,.360 OBP, a fraction of the cost of Cabrera and Cabrera now has the reputation of being a "me" guy and the Marlins probably don't want to surrender their first round pick. I don't see any way this happens. Hanley Ramirez BTW is a brutal SS defensively. Brutal. It would really be something if OC was moved to 2B because of him.

QUOTE (WCSox @ Jan 15, 2009 -> 06:41 AM) I agree. And I suspect that Garland will be looking for a deal closer to 5 years/$50 million. I was reading somewhere Garland is still asking for $13 million a year, although if someone offered a guy with his WHIP $10 million a year for 5 years, if I were his agent, I would tell him to take it.

QUOTE (JDsDirtySox @ Jan 14, 2009 -> 06:56 PM) When he is not hurt... Colon is still effective. I really think he joins the rotation at some point... and makes atleast 12 starts. Who knows how long he will last, maybe he won't make it through spring training, but it certainly won't hurt having him around, and I'm sure he costs next to nothing. I hope they get Garcia too, and make Richard a reliever. Maybe they both could shock the world and make it through the entire season, most likely they won't, but its better than signing Mike Meyers or Jeff Nelson.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 14, 2009 -> 06:52 PM) Because sometimes that particular number doesn't mean everything? Have you ever seen him pitch, or are you basing everything on KW's comments when he made the deal?

QUOTE (santo=dorf @ Jan 14, 2009 -> 06:45 PM) What happened in 2007 with those two when they were first given an opportunity? We are the defending AL Central champs. We need to be a little competitive and not try to completely rebuild just to see what some kid might have. Not to mention Marquez is the #14 prospect in the White Sox system. Why would anyone be eager to see him pitch every 5th game?

This is low risk. Get Garcia too.

If you could get a half a season out of both of them, it would be sweet. Of course, you would have to reserve a spot in the buffet line in front of them for Ramirez.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jan 14, 2009 -> 04:26 PM) What's your point? The thing I have seen about this team and have said it before is that we develop a number of real good players and when "paying the fiddler" comes around we get rid of them. I am only saying originally that Pods did a good job at what he was asked to do. I'm saying he wasn't some small acquisition that no one expected to get much from.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 14, 2009 -> 04:08 PM) We'll be fine with Armstrong, Flowers, Stewart and Miller as back-up options for AJ. Flowers might very easily be the best hitter on the White Sox (after Quentin) in 2-3 years. There's no way we can afford to pay Michael Young that kind of money. It will never happen. We now have the young prospects (and logically they would want Josh Fields, as they were planning to put Young at 3B, Blalock at DH, Andrus at SS and Davis at 1B) we need to make some deals happen, but not this one. (see the mlb.com article in the Dye/Angels thread...it gives plenty of reasons why Dye and Young aren't likely to go anywhere) Dunn still is holding out for $56 million for four years. We might have Dunn already. Except for a much cheaper price. His name is either Fields, Viciedo or Flowers. Garland will get a minimum of $7-8 million, Dunn at least $10 million. That means our payroll is back up to $115 million in this economy. Not possible...especially to make longer term commitments (2-3 years down the line) in an uncertain economy. Things will get worse in 2009 and 10 before they finally get better in 2011. Viciedo will be $4 million cheaper in 2010 because of his signing bonus. Thome's $13 million-gone Dye's $11 million-$1 million buyout, $10 million-gone Contreras $10 million-gone Dotel $6.5 million-gone That's $43.5 million gone after this season. I think the White Sox can afford more than you think. If half the young players are half as good as KW is spewing, some big ticket contracts could easily be added.

QUOTE (Big Daddy Kool @ Jan 14, 2009 -> 03:53 PM) Dunn in CF? You're smoking something right? It would make Griffey in CF in 2008 at least look adequate.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 14, 2009 -> 03:18 PM) True. They weren't good enough to win it all...after September 1. You take away the best player from any team in the playoffs, and they're probably lucky to still make that round. On top of that, we lost what, our #3-#4 starting pitcher, and our #1 setup guy never really recovered from his injury? I can't say with any certainty we'd have beaten the Rays or anything like that if we'd had a healthy Q, Linebrink, and Contreras. But I have trouble thinking of another team that made the playoffs that was as banged up as we were. The Red Sox perhaps, they struggled with a Beckett injury and Ortiz having troubles throughout the season. I love Quentin, but his health has to always be a question mark. He's been injured a lot during his brief career, and the one thing that always concerns me is he gets hit at such a high clip, he may be out for a while at any time. Can the White Sox be certain Linebrink is over his physical issues? When he came back he was batting practice.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 14, 2009 -> 03:15 PM) I wouldn't characterize Prinz as someone anyone besides KW had especially high hopes for. Aardsma and Sisco many had high hopes for, especially Sisco. The irony is that one of the few lefties we brought in one of those spring trainings (Javier Lopez) ended up being serviceable, and we never offered Riske arbitration for some mysterious reason. I think the biggest questions right now surround Marquez, Owens and leadoff. If both of those problems were dealt with, most Sox fans would feel at least 5-75% better than now (yes, not a full dollar's or 100% worth of optimism yet). KW talked up Aardsma as a future star and when the weather was 30 degrees and the wind howling in during April, he was. Then it warmed up. I have it in my mind KW questioning anybody's baseball acumen if they didn't see him "turn the corner" with the Cubs in 2006.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 14, 2009 -> 03:06 PM) Ok, you win this round, I apologize on that. But that still doesn't mean that my point is incorrect. An awful lot of people thought we were in better shape going in to 2007 than going in to 2008. Probably because of the results of the previous season. The bottom line is while the White Sox won the division in 2008 they weren't good enough to win what they were ultimately shooting for. Detroit, Cleveland and KC were woeful in 2008. Minnesota surprised and the Sox won but had to go to OT. Will Gavin Floyd be able to repeat? Can Danks repeat? Will the other teams perhaps being a little stronger hurt the Sox? One thing is for sure, I don't think anyone on this board thinks they are good enough to win it all. I still hold out hope KW is bluffing and will bring in some talent. I've stated before, no one will be more shocked than me if he doesn't bring in a real lead off hitter. If its Jerry Owens, I'll want to stab myself in the eye with a fork. But every day that goes by heightens the odds that KW really is going with what he has for the most part. I guess he wants to ensure walk up sales will be the nill the team aparently is anticipating for 2009.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 14, 2009 -> 02:58 PM) Why am I the only one who ever remembers all the people who said that Quentin guy wasn't going to amount to anything last offseason? Or that we were screwed for looking at Uribe at 2nd base. Or that Danks and Floyd would never cut it in the rotation. Or that Fields ought to be playing over Crede at 3rd base. Or that our 2006 bullpen could be historically good because of how hard they threw. Hell, you don't even have your years right. Erstad was 2007. Aardsma and Sisco were 2006. Prinz was 2007...but wasn't an offseason addition - he's a guy we grabbed off the scrap heap mid season. You might want to check your baseball encyclopedia before telling people you are the only one who remembers correctly. Aardsma, Erstad, Sisco, Prinz were all brought in for the 2007 season with KW saying a lot of the same things he is now saying about these other players he brought in. What ensued was a disaster. BTW Brett Prinz transaction:February 22, 2007: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago White Sox.