StrangeSox

QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Nov 7, 2014 -> 01:14 PM) yeah, same day registration takes care of those. And if you vote first, before the real person shows up, what are they going to do, go fishing in the ballot box for the one illegally cast? Once cast, it is a done deal. This actually happened to a friend of mine on Tuesday. He was given a provisional ballot instead.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Nov 7, 2014 -> 12:25 PM) Something I think people ignore: apathy in voting may be a sign that the vast majority of people in this country are happy and satisfied. They don't want change for the sake of change. They don't need a cause to latch on to. Can things be better? Sure. Is it imperative that we have massive change every 2 or 4 years? No. In fact that's usually a bad thing. And really, most politicians who promise some kind of change are talking to a small percent of people. Rauner talking about getting rid of the 2% tax hike is great. But it's not going to affect the majority of people greatly one way or the other. Same with minimum wage. How many people does that really affect? 5%? 10% of the population? The rest don't give a s*** other than "yeah, you know, I think that's a good idea!" On my more cynical days, I think that this is unfortunately true.

I think Jake was more saying that Democratic GOTV efforts can really suck for any race other than President.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 7, 2014 -> 09:01 AM) Gonna be a big year for animation, How to Train Your Dragon 3 is pegged for 2017 as well. I don't get the love for this franchise. I was not at all impressed by the first one.

Well that's good to hear. I was hoping it wasn't as brutal as "relearn all of undergrad and then some." I really need to knock the GRE out of the park because my undergrad GPA isn't exactly stellar.

Why would it be special treatment if they just don't schedule any primetime games as the second game of a b2b for any team?

I'm just starting to look into going back for my masters in engineering. The couple of places I've looked just say "GRE required" but don't specify subject. I took the Professional Engineer licensure exam last fall, so I'm pretty comfortable with the whole studying process and with my quantitative skills. I know for that exam, most people recommended 150-300 hours of prep.

QUOTE (Jake @ Nov 7, 2014 -> 11:07 AM) While I get pissed at the Republican Party for what I believe are voter suppression tactics, the Democrats that have control in various places in the USA hardly over-extend trying to use their power to get more people to the polls. The goal of both parties ought to be to get as many people to vote as possible with as little fraud as possible. One party is just focused on the fraud and the other party isn't focused on anything. You couldn't spend too much money on trying to make sure your country gives a voice to as many people as possible. I had a Dick Durbin campaigner come to my door in September and ask if I wanted to sign up to vote by mail. I was already planning on voting on election day, but both my wife and I decided to go this route. I don't know why they don't make more of an effort like that--go to every registered democrat and independent in your precinct and try to get them to sign up to vote early. Their current midterm strategy, which is hard to actually discern, clearly doesn't work.

Could anyone who's taken the GRE give me a rough prep time estimate? Is 3 months adequate?

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Nov 7, 2014 -> 07:27 AM) I do. The non-compete only qualifies for sales people leaving and deals they'd been working. I think I'm in the clear. I countered asking for 12% more. I'm told they'll respond today. That said, I'm taking the job either way. It's too important to my family's future. I could work at this place, worry free, for the next 30 years. It'd be a hard decision for me if it meant abandoning this team and knowing that they're all going to get the ax, but with them being able to come over with you seems to make it much easier.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 01:15 PM) Seriously though, name a single thing that's going to change with this election other than which side is introducing the motion to file cloture that won't pass. Executive and judicial appointments.

Lots of people register at their new address and don't cancel at their old address, dead people remain on the rolls for a while, etc.

QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 10:33 AM) Multiple ethics compaints against Cuomo as well, especially regarding his Moreland Commission, which was 'supposed' to root out corruption, but at first only concerned itself with Republicans in the state. but when they ran out of Republicans and started to target Democrats, he quickly disbanded it before any of his buddies could be targeted. Tons of complaints against him, and not just things related to his father. yeah, that slipped my mind

QUOTE (farmteam @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 08:12 AM) Daniel Biss is the man. I expect him to take the leap to Congress soon. Though living in Schakowsky's district makes that difficult. And SS, why the Cuomo hate? Serious question. Haven't really heard much about him but I thought he was a generally well-liked guy. http://www.salon.com/2012/11/19/andrew_cuomo_fake_democrat/

The party that everyone is calling a lock to nominate Hillary Clinton is not controlled by extremes. The Clintons are the pinnacle of centrist DLC politics.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 02:06 PM) 82 % chance Quinn would lose in 2010 66% chance Quinn would win in 2014/ The 1 in 5 chance occurred in 2010 and the 1 in 3 chance occured in 2014. That is a 1 in 15 probability both of those occurring using his numbers, 6.6%. You struggled with the concept of probabilities before when it came to baseball. I predict that Abreu will make an out 60% of the time he has an AB. That doesn't mean my model is flawed when he hits a HR. 6.6% isn't zero, and I don't know that those two chances are completely independent.

For some reason I thought Hickenlooper lost last night. Cuomo is a horrible person and wouldn't stand a chance. I don't think anyone wants Kerry to run again.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 01:10 PM) I mean, 2008. Hopefully she learned not to let Mark Penn run her campaign if she wants to win the nomination in 2016. If she had hired someone who bothered to understand the delegates as well as Obama's team did, maybe she's able to beat back his early challenge. It would still have been really hard for her to overcome her Iraq war vote, though. Who else is on the Dem bench? edit: lol and just like that, the 2014 election thread morphs into the 2016 presidential campaign.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 01:06 PM) Nate Silver's advanced metrics for predicting elections needs some work. In 2010, election day he gave Quinn an 18% chance of winning. Yesterday, he gave him a 66% chance. Republicans outperformed the polls pretty much across the board. But Silver (and others, like Sam Wang at PEC) would point out that they aren't predicting elections but giving probabilities. Put three balls, one black and two red, in a bag, and you have have a 66% chance of pulling out a red one. If you grab a ball and it's the black one, that doesn't mean the entire mathematical field of probabilities is wrong. Even if he had given Quinn a 90% probability of winning and he still lost, it doesn't necessarily mean his methodology was wrong. It means that polls are analytics are less than perfect edit: you'd also need to check the error bars on the probabilities.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 12:36 PM) If Hillary decides to run, I don't think the Republicans can do enough in two years to stop her. She's just way too popular. Some of that will depend on whether we get a repeat of the 2012 clown show.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 12:27 PM) I think it's the latter, 37% of yesterday's voters were 60+. Still, it's the Democrats own fault. They pass Obamacare, less old people die, and now there are more of them to vote Republican. Obama should have got going on that whole race war white slavery thing! It's disheartening to see Republicans being rewarded (or at least not penalized) for blocking Medicaid expansion which has left millions of people who would otherwise be eligible without coverage.

Looking at it again, I'm not sure if that's percentage of that age group that turned out i.e. 12% of eligible voters under 30 voted or if it's the percentage of the people that actually voted i.e. 37% of yesterday's votes came from people 60 or older. Either way, Democrats need to figure out how they become a party that gets younger people to turn out for the midterms if they don't want to keep getting hammered.

I meant more pointing him in the right direction anyway this seems like the key takeaway:

this was from September, I doubt October numbers are in. I think Hickory Huskers works for BLS and might be able to help you out. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf