JUSTgottaBELIEVE

I think Herrera was two years ago but point taken and I hope they choose more wisely if bargain hunting for a reliever

So long as bargain hunting doesn’t consist of bringing Herrera or Cishek back

Isn’t Verlander a free agent as well?

What did he say?

So I’m confused. Does baseball reference account for framing in their WAR calculation or not? Because all I heard all season is how Grandal is so much better than McCann because of his fWAR in 2019 and in previous seasons and to disregard bWAR where McCann has been better than Grandal since 2019.

Exactly. Jerry doesn’t owe Sox fans anything (other than perhaps a top 10-15 payroll). Now the Bulls on the other hand, their fans have a right to be pissed. One of the best, most loyal fan bases in their sport.

Gotcha. This entire thread is a waste. Bauer was never an option for this organization so I don’t see the point in discussing it. We all know Jerry’s opinion on long term big $$$ contracts for pitchers so why did anyone think Bauer was a realistic option? What am I missing here?

Yea, you lost me there

Not sure why Sox fans think they’ll suddenly spend like the Yankees or Dodgers. I’ll be happy if the Sox run a top 10 payroll the next few years and I think they will.

I’m not following you at all. It’s a dumb comparison to begin with because Bauer is not an option for the Sox. He’s just not. You have to be realistic about how this organization operates. The idea of signing a frontline pitcher to a mega deal is not happening for this organization and that’s fine because they can still win a title without that type of move (again, think along the lines of organizations like the Astros or Cardinals). I’m not concerned about losing Dunning and Weems for one season of Lynn when the Sox are projected to be the third best team in the AL and a title contender in 2021 even before this deal was made. Dunning is a small price to pay for a shot at a title next season. If you’re concerned about “losing” Dunning’s spot in the rotation in 2022 and beyond, you have the option to extend Lynn hopefully at a reasonable cost or sign a free agent to fill the void.

When the trade was first made, my immediate reaction was extend Lynn for two years. But after thinking about it more, I’d wait. They have time. If he’s a stud again to start this year, offer him a two year extension. If not, let him walk and pursue one of Verlander, Grienke, or Scherzer on a short term deal selling them on the idea of winning a title at the tail end of their career.

So let’s say Quintana + Lynn costs $16M in 2021 and produces 5.0 WAR. While Bauer + Dunning costs $34M and produces 6.8 WAR. The second option cost also us a second round draft pick but the first option cost us Avery Weems. Not sure how the second option is obviously better. Putting aside that it’s unrealistic with this ownership (they’re never signing a big money contract for a pitcher like Bauer), I’m still not convinced it’s a better use of resources. So then you say, yea but you’d have Bauer and Dunning for many years beyond 2021. How do you know that’s a good thing? The first option leaves the organization with all kinds of flexibility in 2022 and beyond while the second option leaves the organization devastated by one injury (TJS perhaps) to Bauer or what if Dunning flames out? Even if Dunning and Bauer are rock solid for many years to come (unlikely), you can always sign more pitching each offseason for “just money”.

Oh ok if we are going to play that game Bieber was also a 4th round pick. But second round picks have negligible value. Got it

And Steamer projects Quintana for 1.7, Paxton for 2.4, Odorizzi for 1.8, Porcello for 1.9 in 2021. All available for truly just money and less than $10M AAV. Anyone of those guys plus Lynn is barely more than half of what they’d pay Bauer plus Dunning in 2021.

I’m not losing sleep over Dane Dunning. He turns 26 this month, has already had TJS, was a borderline top 100 prospect, and was absolutely brutal in his last 3 starts at the end of the 2020 season when we needed him most. Could he be a solid mid rotation starter? Sure. But so could Crochet, Kopech, Cease, Kelley, Thompson, Steiver, etc. Or the Sox could simply sign one that’s more trustworthy to me than Dunning in 2021 like Quintana for truly “just money” while not breaking the bank.

Read subsequent posts. What was Dunning’s FV heading into the shortened 2020 season? You seem to be attributing a tremendous increase in Dunning’s value based on an extremely SSS and starts against terrible teams like KC and Pitt. He had one really good start against a good hitting team whoop dee do. If we’re being honest about the assessment here, we are taking his 2020 numbers with a grain of salt and looking at his prospect ranking heading into last season, which wasn’t all that much better than guys like Kelley and Thompson.

And by the way, 55 FV for Dunning is extremely generous. Fangraphs has him at 45 FV.

And the average 55 FV pitcher like Dunning achieves 3.7 WAR (median 2.2 WAR). Sounds like you’re the one reaching here.

According to that article, the average WAR for a 55 FV pitcher is 3.7 (which I believe Dunning was heading into 2020). Not much better than that second round pick eh? And certainly nowhere near the 15-25 over 6 season “assumption” you’ve been putting out there...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

And tbh, assuming someone like Dunning is going to be worth 15-25 WAR over the next 6 seasons is silly. If we are going to play the game of second round picks only average 5 WAR over their careers or whatever, odds are someone like Dunning at this point in his career is more likely to reach less than 10 WAR for his career than 15+. If we are going to go by the odds and historical averages. Just sayin

He’s still worth something. I know Mazara didn’t work out but he was traded for the Sox 2018 2nd round pick. Someone like Thompson could easily land you a high leverage reliever in July.

Ok, Matthew Thompson org no. 7 prospect 2019 second rounder.

True. So it would be like losing Jared Kelley, org no. 5 prospect and 55 FV. That’s still “something.”

It’s a comp pick after the first round, no? Better than a second round pick. Jared Kelley was a second round pick for the Sox in 2020. Will he turn out better than Dunning? Probably not but he very well could. There’s a reason many teams have shied away from signing free agents with QO attached (and also why the union wants that rule changed). Because those lost draft picks have real value.