JUGGERNAUT

The best way to compare starters is to look at their losses. Those are typically good measures of less than quality starts. Santana: 6L, Radke 11L, Silva 8L, Lohse 13L, Mays 11L (03) Buehrle: 10L, Garcia 11L, Contreras 9L, Garland 11L, El-Duque 5L (02) Santana over Buehrle Radke ties Garcia Silva over Contreras Garland over Lohse El-Duque+Grili over Mays+Gressinger Edge: Twins The 5th is tough to evaluate. Both Mays & El-Duque are injury prone. El-Duque 98 (21S, 4L), 99 (33S, 9L), 00 (29S, 13L), 01 (17S, 7L), 02 (22S, 5L), 03 DL, 04 (15S, 2L) Mays 99 (20S, 11L), 00 (28S, 15L), 01 (34S, 13L), 02 (17S, 8L), 03 (21S, 8L), 04 DL EL-Duque avg's 11L when he has more than 25S, but only avg's about 5L when he has less than 25S. If we assume 21S, that gives Grili about 8 starts (same as 04) in which he avg'd 3L. The total then would be about 9L. Mays is in a similar boat. Assume 21S, & 9L & assume 4/5 for the other 8/9 starts. That's a sizeable advantage to the CWS. But because the front-end starters will factor in more games I still give the edge to the Twins.

I'll make this easy for you. Compare the potential of the 2005 Twins to the team ARZ fielded when they were world champions. Santana will be the favorite to win yet another Cy Young before the season starts. That's a 35 win potential between him Radke alone. They need just 35 wins from the other 3 to be in a position to iwin the division. A healthy Santana + Radke is worth the same as a healthy Buehrle + Garcia + Garland. Ozzie was dead on in realizing the stakes had changed. That happens when your division rival & leader features a Cy Young winner

If you disagree then please explain why. Without the formation of unions & collective bargaining agreements in the world's fastest growing economies what is going to lead to an improve in worker's pay, rights, benefits, & conditions so that American can protect what she has built in the last century?

Santana, Radke, Silva, Lohse, Mays vs Buehrle, Garcia, Contreras, Garland, El Duque The edge goes to the Twins because of Santana & Radke. That's the closest the AL has come to Johnson + Shilling even if it was one year. Santana is like facing Jason from Friday 13th. Unstoppable killing machine that can just cut you up. Radke is like Krueger from Nightmare on Elm Street. Out think you into killing yourself. There's 35 win potentional between them alone. Ouch! The lineups are probably even but I give the CWS the edge w a healthy hearty Thomas. I think the CWS has closed the gap between the two teams in the BP with Luis & Hermie. I think the CWS could have one of the very best bullpens in the AL. So if the cards fall right in the health department I think the CWS should overtake the Twins. The rotation is good enough now to where they should be competitive in just about every game. That's the first time we can say that in 4 yrs.

America owes it's standard of living & it's marketplace to unions. Workers benefits were unheard of until unions came along. All that has separated us from the work camps overseas came about through unions. And yet in the global economy there is no room for unions. They continue to be marginalized here & abroad with each passing year. Not even government employee unions can stop it because fed, state, & local governments continue to outsource clerical jobs overseas. Oh sure you can continue to hope & pray that the WTO & UN can work diplomacy to bring out worker's rights for all nations but don't expect them to listen. I laugh at the many years unions have backed the democrats in order to stem the tide. What did it ge them? Absolutely nothing. Had they backed the GOP they might have at least had the ability to strengthen the non global voice that exists there. The movers & shakers in the GOP are not all tried-and-true capitalists willing to sell all that America has worked hard to gain for short-term proifts. I don't know if the same can be said of the Dems. Make no mistake about it. We are in Iraq because capitalists want us to be there. They see profitability there & we won't leave until they get their profits. The war means nothing to them. Establishing a thriving Baghdad Exchange means everything. That means more than democracy, the war, peace, or anything else to them. Ok, I said my peace. Agree or disagree. Hide your head in the sand for all I care & pretend none of this is happening. It's not going to change the realization that America's trade deficit continues to grow & benefits paid to American workers continues to diminish. Not even pensions are safe.

I trust KW when he says Koney is not going any where. The only time at which Koney was involved in ARZ trades is for The Big Unit himself. That's not an option any more, so that's not going to happen. If NYY land Beltran they can supply the bat to replace Koney in the original trade. My guess is it would be Matsui.

In rank of importance: C, SS, CF, 2B. If you don't have a C that can't block wild pitches or in the dirt pitches you'll lose. If you don't have a C who at least makes a runner caution against stealing you'll lose. It's far more important to have a strong defensive catcher with a weak bat than a weak defensive catcher with a strong bat. Hence the knock on AJP. He's a strong bat with a weak glove+arm. The SS typically has to field more plays, cutoffs, & SB attempts then any other player. The CF has to cover the widest territory in the OF. Aarond's coming off a great year ranking in the top 15th overall offensively in the AL. Even if it's a 1 yr deal it still gives the CWS an op to negotiate an extension throughout the season.

Enough of this Garland talk. This is about the whole team. Who here believes the CWS will push the payroll to low-80's this year? With the recent signing of El-Duque & the expected signings of at least two more position players to fill the 25 man roster the CWS are now looking at a mid-70's payroll. If the NYY sign Beltran then the CWS+ARZ+NYY Big Unit trade is back on. The NYY can include (Matsui/Sheff/Willams) to make up for Green in the LAD deal. The CWS can supply Garland + Grili to make up for Penny + Brozo in the LAD deal. Both CWS & NYY will throw in a ready to play ml each to complete ARZ needs. NYY will throw in some cash to drop Vazquez's price to the CWS to 30M/3. Who believes the CWS would then take on that salary & drive the payroll to a little over 80M? I never thought I would see the day when the CWS would be spending betw 30-40M on starting pitching. Someone pinch me!

Maybe the Cubune is so bored with it's team that it just loves including the SOX in all the big trades chicagosports.com: Sources say the deal appears dead unless another team replaces the Dodgers. One insider claimed the White Sox, who desire Vazquez. My insight: If the NYY's land Beltran, then they have 4 starting OFers al of which would prefer to play in the OF than DH. So if that happens the deal's back on if the CWS want to eat the vast majority of Vazquez's contract. NYY <- Garland + Grili + 1 prospect from CWS CWS <- (Matsui/Williams/Sheff) + Vazquez + cash from NYY ARZ <- (Matsui/Williams/Sheff) from CWS, Garland + Grili + 1 prospect from CWS + 1 prosect for NYY NYY <- RJ ARZ get's the big bat, an experienced starter with great stuff, the best young starter on the CWS roster, & 2 prospects. NYY get the Big Unit CWS gets Vazquez at a price tag of about 30M/3.

Ok, maybe we can take that up in the politics thread. Let me just ask all of you who believe an 8/2 + 4/2 (incentives) deal for El Duque was a good price to pay one question. Who were the SOX bidding against for that price? It wasn't the NYY because when he declined arbit he locked them into Jan 8th to work out a deal & there was nothing in the NY press indicating such. Do we measure this by BOS Wells contract? 3M to sign, 2.5 mil base, 5M/yr for 30+ starts. Total value betw (8-18)/2. If that is the measure then consider this 02-04 Wells: GS 92, 610 ip, 3.9 era, 45W, 22L. Nearly 3 times as many starts & ip, an era < 4, a W/L > 2. The SOX got fleeced.

This is off-topic but don't you think some people posting in this thread have way too long sigs? Plus lowercaserepublican what are you talking about in your thread? There is no hope for America's future. Everyone has embraced capitalism. Commies, dictators, & democracies. Capitalism is now the de-facto un-abridged & un-curtailed standard of business in the world. How many profits will the Iraq war generate for capitalists? It's no longer bound by unions, govts, or any other good-willed christian ideologies. You can't help but be reminded of Lennon's words "imagine there is no religion". In terms of business you won't have to imagine it. There will no longer be any notion of ethics, morality, christiandom, or charity. No home-town discounts. It's sort of like MLB. Soon to be driven such that price is determined almost entirely by supply & demand. Seek the lowest cost possible to produce the supply in order to maximize profits from the demand. There is no hope. Not for the CWS or for America

There is no way the CWS will use El Duque as a 5th starter at a price tag that is double that of Garland. It's just not going to happen. The same thing with Contreras. His price makes him a lock for the #3. As many of you said, the CWS will probably hold a press conference with this signing. There's no way a guy that popular is going to be your 5th starter. His numbers are just far too good for a 5th starter: 02-04: 3.61 era, 16W, 7L, 37GS, 224.2 IP OPS vs (RH 700, LH 643) This guy is like the Nomar equivalent for a pitcher. When he plays his level of play is all-star caliber but he only avg's 3-4 months playing time a year.

$10 he beats out Garland for the 4th spot after ST! Any takers?

I refuse to believe the Miami Herald report. I'm sticking with the Cubune. When they report it then I'll believe it. I can live a few more hours with the fantasy that KW got a quality arm for a good price

I don't see that. All the good pitchers have dominant fast-balls & filthy off-speed stuff. Garland doesn't have a dominant fast-ball. He does have good stuff but change of speeds is not one of them. For Garland to become a good front man starter he needs to have better control of his pitches like Maddux. He's never demonstrated that kind of control over a long span of starts in his career. His stuff is good enough to be a bordeline winning pitcher in the MLs but beyond that is doubtful. Pitchers are best evaluated against their peers. Garland has one mark of consistency: his ranking. 04: 29th, 03: 30th, 02:32nd. Yes there's improvement there but don't expect a breakout year. What you can say is that his price vs performance level for the CWS has been good. In my opinion that makes Garland even more attractive to other teams that pitchers who rank a little better than he does.

Yeah, but that's pointless because it's rare for pitchers to break-out as underperformers. Consider RJ. When he was in the AL he was always considered good with a ton of talent but never great. Then he goes to the NL & becomes great. That's more common than an AL pitcher suddenly going from an underperformer to great. The best thing that can be said about Garland is that he's an above average bottom rotation guy who's had great durability over his career. If had better consistency he should have avg'd well over 200 ip in that time. But he doesn't so he typically falls short. There's always hope but many question still to this day whether he has the mental toughness needed to be a good to great SP. No one ever questions his stuff.

It's the base I have problems with. Who do we trust? The Cubune or the Miami Herald? The Cubune: the Sox offered a two-year heavily laden with incentives, worth as much as $4 million. The Herald: http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/sports/10472238.htm?1c ''El Duque'' agreed to a two-year, $8 million incentive laden contract that could be worth as much as $12 million. Pending a physical. The Cubune just said sources & the Herald made reference to his agent. That's way too much! The guy didn't just avg less than 146 ip over 4 yrs. Two of the years topped out at 100 ip. Do the math, & you get about 125-30 ip. No use crying about it. If this is true then that's if for the SOX. No Vazquez & no other starters. He might have a few mil left to get a solid utility player & an experienced C. It's not so much the $ as it is the idea of the SOX overpaying. That's what me the most. It's like the Bears spending close to 40M on a defensive secondary that has to be close to the worst in the NFL. It's sad because the line is good, the linebackers are good, but the secondary blows. That makes the team one of the worst in the league. Arggghhhh! At least the seats will be forest green over the next two years. That's something I wanted since 1991.

Crap! Crap! Crap! When I read this in the chicago press it was rumored as a 4/2. But the Herald is reporting an 8/2 + incentives = 12/2. Horrible! I'm glad it's still El Duque & even with that contract the SOX will be free most of the time to trade him for quality in return but c'mon! That's a lot of money for a guy who's avg'd less than 146 ip the past 4 yrs! KW bend off so I can kick you in your big fat arse!

If for whatever reason El Duque doesn't work out the CWS can always trade him. He's never been a total melt-down to where he hasn't had good trade value. IMHO this is a no-brainer move & I'm glad KW got it done before any one else had time to think about it. As for Garland I still think he'll be in an ARZ uniform next year. If you look at the LAD-NYY-ARZ trade after NYY signs Beltran a big bat is no longer needed from a 3rd team. With 4 OF's in Matsui, Sheffield, Williams, & Beltran NY can pkg 1 of them (probably Shef or Matsui) in the trade for RJ. Now all that is needed is for a 3rd team to supply the arms that ARZ wants & that's where the CWS could resurface. CWS <- Matsui + Vazquez + cash from NY ARZ <- Matsui + Garland + Grili + prospect from CWS, prospect from NYY NYY <- RJ from ARZ ARZ gets the star OFer, 2 arms that should make their starting rotation, & 2 prospects. NYY gets the Big Unit CWS get Vazquez & cash.

No no no. Uribe is the #2 guy. That's going to improve the quality of pitches Pods sees. I'm surprised no one looked at that. Compare our lineup to MIL from 2004. Our 2-3-4-5 guys are a major improvement over theirs. That's going to help Pods get on base more. I expect to see good things from this speedster.

It's a 4/2 deal. Not 4/1! The incentives are built upon that. He declined arbitration from the NYY that probably would have paid 3M+. His numbers were solid in the 15 GS. This makes sense for the CWS. Depending on ST, El-Duque could earn a spot any where betw 3-5. I think he will beat out Garland for the 4th spot. The gamble is that if he can stay healthy you can get 15W out of 34 GS from him. He had 8W in 15 GS with a respectable 3.30 era in 2004. If that happened then KW looks sly & crafty in this move. What I like most about the move is the price. It's insurance against Contreras & Garland in the rotation if KW should be able to sign a younger experienced pitcher like Perez or acquire Vazquez in a trade where the NYY are paying most of his salary. If that were to happen then Hernandez makes for a fine long-relief guy. His versatility is what I like most about this guy. He just does whatever he can for the team to win.

The Herald reports that with the LAD & TEX seeking AJ as well it's unlikely he will sign with the CWS. I guess that leaves Zaun.

The rotation looks a little better now. SP: Buehrle, Garcia, Contreras, Hernandez, Garland : experienced RP: Polite, Luis, Hermannson, Adkins, Marte, Shingo : experienced LU1-6: Pods, Uribe, Thomas, Koney, Dye, Rowand : measures up well against any 1-6 in ALC. LU7-9: Crede, Davis, Harris : uggh. Possibly the worst 7-9 in the ALC. BP: Burke, Gload, Sweeney, Borchy, ? The biggest holes now are 7-9 & bench. Scratch T Greene off the list. He came to terms w COL last night. That leaves Zaun & AJ. If KW gets one of them & either Cairo, Eckstein, or Cora then I'll say he's done a reasonable job this off-season.

El Duque for 4/2 is not bad. The guy is a proven winner regardless of the team he plays for. 15 GS, 8W, 2L 3.30 era vs ALE. 2004 OBP SLG vs Batting #1 .378 .644 Batting #2 .349 .359 Batting #3 .372 .543 Batting #4 .341 .257 Batting #5 .425 .559 Batting #6 .263 .143 Batting #7 .237 .200 Batting #8 .278 .281 Batting #9 .171 .206 2002-4 OBP SLG vs Batting #1 .331 .407 Batting #2 .328 .413 Batting #3 .397 .505 Batting #4 .300 .351 Batting #5 .375 .522 Batting #6 .228 .389 Batting #7 .178 .155 Batting #8 .299 .396 Batting #9 .226 .218 Better than most. Plus there's the added well-known fact that if the NYY get in trouble w their SP they always come a running to El Duque. Doesn't matter what team he's playing for at the time.

It was Green or Drew but rather Vazquez that broke the deal: Sources say Vazquez had no desire to play for LAD & would like demand a a trade after 1 season in accordance w his contract. LAD all along planned to trade him to a 4th team but that team never materialized. Vazquez refused to take a physical after DePodesta labeled him a "health concern" with speculation that he had been pitching with an injured elbow in 2004. But don't think the trade is dead altogether. J.D Drew apparently has agreed to a 55/5 deal with LAD. They still have a need to deal Green.