JUGGERNAUT

As a rule I rarely count wins because MLB is all about losses. To insure yourself of winning a division you need to try & build a team that will lose no more than 70 games. If you have a good rotation & good bullpen that splits 50 losses by starters & 20 losses by the pen. Ideally you'd like a pen with no more than 15 losses.

I think we can expect another RP to round it out to 25. With El-Duque & a pen of mostly specialist (strong vs LH or RH but not both), it makes sense to carry a staff of 12. What I didn't take into consideration earlier is that if Thomas is unable to play he'll start the season on the DL. That free's up yet another spot. Waste of space spots: Davis, Burke, T Perez

THERE HAS BEEN NO EVIDENCE PRESENTED THAT BONDS WAS JUICED! I'M SICK OF HEARING THAT CRAP! All the evidence points to is that Bonds used steroidal like creams to overcome pain & iniuries. That's entirely different from Giambi using steroids for growth. What the HOF vets call into question with Bonds is whether it's fair for him to use such things even to combat the pain & fatigue of father time. When he breaks the all-time HR record should he receive an asterisk simply because modern chemistry allowed him to play with sizeable pain longer than the past HOFers.

That was Rogers suggestion. :dips*** I was just commenting on the article. However; if Koney isn't in the future plans of the CWS then they should get as much as they can for him now. Vazquez + 15M + NYY prospect + ARZ prospect FOR Koney+Marte+Garland is far more than we got for either Lee or Maggs.

Look I'm really happy for Eck that he's a grinder & a hearty player. As I'm sure Cora is as well. But it doesn't change the fact that neither of these guys can hit a lick. Harris is a better hitter than both of them. I just feel that after the CWS has spent a ton of money this past year on upgrading pitching & defense that the remainder of the money should be spent on average/better than average hitters for the 7-9 spots in the lineup. Catcher G Zaun fits that as does Miguel Cairo. Zaun is far more important that Eck or Cora because he puts Davis on the bench.

Let's not forget the Angels spent the $ AFTER they won the World Series. If I'm not mistaken they won the WS with a payroll under 80M. I'm quite certain the CWS would do exactly the same thing if they won the World Series. You can do that because suddenly the season ticket sales go through the roof. That's entirely different than game day sales that make up the bulk of the 2M fans now.

http://www.forbes.com/business/2004/04/08/...seballland.html Ranked in terms of revenue: rev(millions), franchise val (millions) 01-NYY 238, 832 02-BOS 190, 533 03-SEA 169, 396 04-NYM 158, 442 05-CHC 156, 358 06-ATL 156, 374 07-LAD 154, 399 08-SFG 153, 368 09-STL 131, 314 10-BAL 129, 296 11-HOU 128, 320 12-TEX 127, 306 13-CLE 127, 292 14-ANA 127, 241 15-DET 127, 241 16-ARZ 126, 276 17-COL 124, 285 18-CWS 124, 248 19-CIN 123, 245 20-PIT 117, 235 21-PHI 115, 281 22-OAK 110, 186 23-SDP 106, 265 24-MIL 102, 174 25-FLA 101, 172 26-TAM 101, 152 27-TOR 99, 169 28-MIN 99, 168 29-KCR 98, 171 30-WAS 81, 145 Whether you rank it in terms of fran val or rev the CWS was 18th in 2003. Far ahead of MIN, KCR, but behind CLE & DET. This pre-dates COMCAST Sportsnet. That's expected to bring in a few mil for the team which would place them in the top 15. If they could just draw another 250K fans they would be in the top 10 in rev. The franchise value will probably always fall betw 15-20 because the team does not have even 1% ownership of the Cell. Yet still it's franchise val is in the mid 200 million range because it plays in the Chicago market & it's history.

CWS pros: -2M stadium fans -unbelievable stadium deal -great radio deal -ownership in a TV station (COMCAST Sportsnet) -city full of corporate sponsorship possibilities (US Cellular deal) -an immensely successful and savvy owner in Reinsdorf The same questions come to mind again: -How much does the CWS make on parking? -How much does the CWS make on concessions? -How much does the CWS make on club/luxury boxes? That's always been the question mark about this team since the Cell was created. We know they increased revenue substantially from these 3 venues with the new ballpark. We also know they have the lowest rent cost for a publicly financed stadium in MLB. It's zero unless they draw 2M+. Oddly enough they draw just less than that every year. In other words when you add all those pros up some believe that the 2M fans at the Cell are equal in value to about 2.5M fans at say Comerica Park. When you think of it that way suddenly the SOX are in the upper half of revenue in MLB.

I can not understand the joy of CWS fans in trying to aquire a guy that has an OPS < 700. That's not a good hitter. Yes his OBP is 360+ but that's most due to walks. His bat is worse than Clayton yet he has a better eye at the plate. What are you expecting of this 5'7" player?

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sp...l=cs-columnists Rogers spinning the Vazquez trade: Offer Koney a 28M/3 extension now w a 2M buyout of 3rd yr. That guarantees him 20M/2. If he accepts forget Vazquez. If he rejects trade him to ARZ & get Vazquez. Wishful thinking? Rogers believes that Koney's trade value is at an all-time high after the Beltre, Sexson, & Drew signings. He believes that could land the CWS Vazquez + 15M + ARZ prospect + NYY prospect. That would reduce the cost of Vazquez to 19M/3 for the CWS. I'm not sure why he thinks the NYY's would do that. It's true the initial ARZ demands between the two teams was 19.5M. So in that respect the NYY would be saving 4.5M with the CWS involved. I agree that Koney+Garland+Marte will satisfy ARZ. Even to where ARZ might send a prospect to the CWS. Garland could be a solid 2/3 in the NL. Without the CWS, the NYY will likely have to pay a higher cost in talent to get RJ. Will they trade money for talent to get him? Well that's their history now isn't it. As for the CWS, can they win w/out Koney? Gload has proven to be a capable PH hitter & sub for the team & represents a sizeable upgrade in the speed-and-defense dept so I do think they can win w/out Koney. Especially with Vazquez locked up for 3 yrs.

The incentives: suntimes.com Williams said Hernandez is eager to prove he is healthy, insisting on contract bonuses for being named to the All-Star Game and winning Comeback Player of the Year. Feeling better about that. That's a high bar to reach & if he reaches it the CWS should be in a good position to win the div. I like that.

El-Duque to take #3 spot. Santana: 6L, Radke 11L, Silva 8L, Lohse 13L, Mays 11L (03) Buehrle: 10L, Garcia 11L, El-Duque+youngin 8L, Contreras 9L, Garland 11L, Santana over Buehrle Radke ties Garcia Silva ties El-Duque+fill-in Contreras over Lohse Garland over Mays+fill-in Edge: CWS The move of El-Duque to #3 negates Silva's advantage. Here's the way to look at it. The probability of Silva or the Twins gettting only 8L from the #3 starter is about the same as the probability of El-Duque or the CWS getting only 8L from the #3 starter. I've changed my vote based on William's stellar health report for Hernandez & the belief that the CWS will go with 12 arms & limit Orlando's pitch count to 100.

70-75 wins.

We have to add a utility IF & a 2nd C. We don't have a 25 man roster yet & we don't have any ml potential candidates either. So that's going to eat up at least 2M more.

Since I'm lobbying hard for the guy here's the latest on his situation: http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb...b%26fext%3D.jsp After Greg Myers got hurt in late April, Zaun stepped into the big league starting role and responded with the best season of his career. The switch-hitter finished with the team's third-highest on-base percentage (.367) last season, and he also developed a rapport with Toronto's pitching staff. The opportunity to play regularly will be there again next season with the Jays -- whether he takes it remains to be seen. http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb...s_tor&fext=.jsp Zaun is still negotiating with the Jays, reportedly angling for a two-year deal instead of a one-year deal with an option. By waiving arbitration, he gained an additional small window to talk to Toronto while he weighs offers from the rest of the league. Did I mention he's a SH? VS. LEFT: .272 / .668 VS. RIGHT: .268 / .789 HOME: .254 / .742 AWAY: .285 / .781 He made the min last yr. He's in a sim boat that T Greene was in only he has much more ML experience. Greene signed for 750K, so I think Zaun can be had for 2M/2 + incentives. Look at the BOS Red Sox & the impact David Ortiz made on that team. Sometimes one guy can make a difference. I think this is the guy for the CWS. Kenny make the call! Stalk him if you have too

The lineup is all about giving your staff a chance to win. With a few more moves the CWS will improve over last yr. 1-Pods .339 o, .405 s, .744 2-Uribe .331 o, .515 s, .846 3-Thomas/Dye .385 o, .528 s. .913 3-Dye (Thomas DL/off) .318 o, .500 s, .818 avg'd his (#3, #4). As a #3 . 876 4-Konerko .353 o, .481 s, .834 5-Dye/Ev .350 o, .525 s, .875 avg'd his (#4,#5). As a #5 .975 5-Everett .360 o, .477 s, .837 (avg'd his #5, #6). As a #5 .724 6-Rowand .399 o, .570 s, .969 avg'd (#1,#2,#6). As a #6 1.217 7-Zaun .361 o, .410 s, .771 avg'd his (#5,#7). As a #7 .818 8-Crede .300 o, .452 s, .752 avg'd his (#7,#8). As an #8 .833 9-Harris .353 o, .378 s, .733 avg'd his (#1,#9). As a #9 .800 9-Cairo .338 o, .377 s, .715 avg'd his (#8, #9). As a #9 .804 10-Everett (Expected to hit 5th when subbing for Thomas or Dye). 11-Davis .256 o, .347 s, .603 avg'd his 1-9. His best in the 8th spot (742) 12-Cairo expected to hit 9th 13-Gload .375 o, .479 s, .854 avg'd his 1-9. He's a solid PH. 14-Perez .285 o, .338 s, .623 avg'd his 1-9. He's below avg as a LH PH. Since Perez is signed, I hope we can get more out of him I believe the CWS will go with 12 pitchers because of there being no so many specialists in relief. Having that extra guy can really make a difference then. As you can see Zaun makes a big difference in the 7th spot in that lineup. It changes the whole 7-9 makeup & makes the CWS a solid threat 1-9. This might be the most balance lineup the CWS has had in the past 4 years. 5 guys with a slg > 500, 7 guys with an obp > 350. With the addition of Pods is even more important to strengthen the 7-9. Look at Pods 3 yrs sit stats: NOn .337, .396, .733 66% of abs ROn .357, .407, .764 34% of abs ScP .388, .447, .835 30% of abs For those thinking 1-Uribe, don't. Pods avg's 1 SB for every 11 AB's. That kind of speed screams lead off. If we get Zaun, I think the season's going to be both exciting & fun! If not I may have to put Davis out of his misery

Summing it all up on paper we look pretty good: 1-Buerhle 761 v LH, 731 v RH, 35GS/10L 2-Garcia 696 v LH, 680 v RH, 31GS/11L 3-Hernandez 729 v LH, 624 v RH, 15GS/2L 4-Contreras 751 v LH, 827 v RH, 31GS/9L 5-Garland 771 v LH, 796 v RH, 33GS/11L Hernandez when healthy is arguably the best pitcher on the staff. But because of his being a health risk probably will be in the back-end of the rotation. What you have to like is that over a 162GS, CWS starters are expected to lose no more than 50 games. That makes the CWS competitive in about 112 games. There's a strong possibility of 70-75 wins from this staff, leaving 42 games to be decided by the bullpen. The greatest improvement in this team is the bullpen. We win a little more than 1/2 of those games we win the division. I expect improvement in Buehrle, Contreras & Garland. Look at Garcia's splits. That's what's expected from a front-end rotation guy. Just a 5-10% improvement in these 3 guys could be the difference between 10-15 wins. If they can do that the CWS could run away with the division early. 6-Politte 1036 v LH, 585 v RH, 54G/3L - about a 35/65 split there - specialist v RH 7-Adkins 973 v LH, 768 v RH, 50G/3L - he does it with mirrors - best I can say 8-Cotts 861 v LH, 728 v RH, 56G/4L (1GS/1L as SP) - improvement over Adkins 9-Hermannson 850 v LH, 650 v RH, 47G/9L (18GS/5L as SP) - specialist v RH 10-Vizcaino 586 v LH, 853 v RH, 73G/4L - specialist v LH 11-Marte 471 v LH, 782 v RH, 74G/5L - specialist v LH 12-Shingo 696 v LH, 408 v RH, 59G/4L - best closer in the division! That's a solid BP. You have 2 guys that can handle RH, 2 guys than can handle LH a closer than can handle both & 2 guys that bend but don't break. I would say Adkins & Cotts spots are open to competition in ST. Grili will probably stay in the ml's as a starter & be called up if necc. You are expected the SP to get you to the 7th inning. You have 2 specialists v RH & 1 specialist v LH to get you to Marte. That shouldn't be hard. You have Cotts or someone who beats him out to come in early if a starter gets rocked early. Then will Marte & Shingo it's close to being lights out. Worse case, 27L from the BP. That's 77 losses total & a 85 win total. Reasonable case, 20L from the BP, 70 loses, 92 win total. Best case, 15L from the BP, 65 loses, 97 wn total & division crown. That's why they say it's all about pitching & defense

I'm not sold on Vazquez. He came over from the NL as a power-pitcher. Had a solid 1st 1/2 w the NYY & then fell apart. Wasn't the same. Did teams figure something out on him? That's a huge risk for even 30M/3. Let's shore up the remaining holes & go forward. KW please sign Zaun & Cairo. On paper at least are 7-9 become: 7-Zaun 349 o, 469 s 8-Crede 330 o, 503 s 9-Cairo 368 o, 436 s

No to Eckstein. Nearly all of his ab's are as a leadoff hitter where he has an OPS < 700. He does not fit well with the CWS. Pods & Uribe will beat that & possibly his 343 obp. I'm not willing to experiment with him in the 7-9 spots. What we need: Zaun & Cairo. Both are proven 7 & 9 hitter. 7-Zaun 349 o, 469 s 8-Crede 330 o, 503 s 9-Cairo 368 o, 436 s AJ can't block a pitch or throw out a runner to save his life. That's why the SFG said adios. Zaun is a better fit for the CWS.

1-Eckstein 343 o, 337 s. Nearly all of his ab's are #1. No thank you. Pods & Uribe will both post a better OPS than that. I am not willing risk him batting 7-9. I'll pass. Here's the rest of my X-mas list: 7-Zaun 349 o, 469 s 60% of his ab's 8-Crede 330 o, 503 s 50% of his ab's 9-Cairo 368 o, 436 s Most of his ab's Zaun is a proven 9 hitter, Crede is a proven 8 hitter, & Cairo is a proven 9 hitter.

Fair. Our 7-9 spots in the lineup make me cringe. 7-Crede 299 o, 419 s. Oddly enough he split time at 7&8. As an 8 he had a 330 o, 503 s. Make him an 8. Please. 8-Davis 299 o, 443 s. Not bad. Nearly 1/2 of Davis' ab's were as an 8. Crede can't have 8. Davis as a 7 = 594 ops, as a 9 = 554. He sucks in any spot. He has to be an 8. 9-Harris 364 o, 436 s. Not bad. About 15% of his ab's were as a 9. He sucked as #1, & #2 & there isn't much left to consider. Well I feel a little better. Crede sucks as a 7 but he's the best of the 3 in that spot. What we need the most is a utility IF ready to come in for Crede if he should suck as a 7 again. Or a C who is solid as a 7. Options: I think you'll like this! 5-Zaun 371 o, 372 s 60% of his ab 7-Zaun 349 o, 469 s 30% of his ab If we sign Zaun then we can move Crede to 8. That'll work! 9-Cairo 368 o, 436 s 60% of his ab's. Solid competition for Harris. 1-Eckstein - No thank you. Nearly all of his ab's are as a leadoff hitter. 343 o, 337 s. 8-Cora - 402 o, 419 s. 60% of his ab's. As a 7, 9 he sucks. The 8 spot is Crede's. No thank you. KW please sign Zaun & Cairo. On paper at least are 7-9 become: 7-Zaun 349 o, 469 s 8-Crede 330 o, 503 s 9-Cairo 368 o, 436 s I like that! I think that beats the Twins!

Ozzie don't be a fool! Limit his pitch count betw 100-110. There is plenty of data available that proves this guy begins to breakdown every time he pitches into the 120+ range.

All things considered the advantage the Twins have in the front-end of their rotation is negated by the advantage the Sox have in the back-end of their rotation. That means the #3 spot is biggest challenge for both teams. Who will have a better year: Silva or Contreras? If you think Contreras then vote for the CWS if you think Silva then vote the Twins. So far in their careers there's not much of a separation so it's not an easy judgment to make. In terms of stuff Contreras beats Silva. I didn't factor it in but Contreras probably faced better lineups. Let's look at their month to month: Apr 04: Contreras 4 gs, 17 ip, 1W-2L ; Silva 5gs, 31ip, 4-0 May04: Contreras 3 gs, 14 ip, 1W-0L ; Silva 5gs, 28ip, 1-3 Jun 04: Contreras 5 gs, 14 ip, 3W-1L ; Silva 6gs, 40ip, 3-2 Jul 04: Contreras 6 gs, 39 ip, 3W-2L ; Silva 5gs, 31ip, 1-2 Aug04: Contreras 6 gs, 38 ip, 4W-1L ; Silva 6gs, 34ip, 1-1 Sep04: Contreras 6 gs, 28 ip, 0W-3L ; Silva 5gs, 31ip, 4-0 Oct 04: Contreras 1 gs, 8 ip, 1W-0L ; Silva wins Apr, Jun, Sep Contreras wins May, Jul, Aug Slight edge to Silva. The most important months are Apr & Sep. As for 2005, Contreras finished 1-3 & Silva finished 4-0. The edge has to go to Silva again.

I can't wish it away any more. ESPN reported it. I need to know what the incentive bonuses are. If we just paid 4M for 100 ip argghh! If we paid 4M for 29 starts ok. It did shine some light on his health. Jul 04: 4 gs, 2-0, 19 ip : Aug 04: 5 gs, 3-0, 32 ip Sep 04: 4 gs, 3-1, 30 ip : Oct 04: 1 gs 0-1, 3 ip Poff 04: 1 gs, 0-0, 5 ip gs >= 6 ip: 9, = 5 ip: 4, < 5 ip: 3 I would say it's more important to limit his innings than his starts. In fact pitch count is even more important. He pitched 8 starts in a row of 54 ip with an avg pitch count of about 105. Whenever he pitched more than 110 his next start he lasted less than 5 ip.

Are you on crack? Which 3,4,5,6 (because none of the teams in the ALC have a solid, durable 1-5) compare better than the CWS' Contreras, Garland, El-Duque, Grili? Certaninly not the Twins Silva, Lohse, Mays, & Gressinger!