JUGGERNAUT

It all depends on what other people do. Koney & Lee were both in the top 20 in the AL last year. For accomplished players that's 10M+ range. If Koney does it again he'll probably get that. But if he should fall down into the top 30 range then no. I think his RBI totals will be key. If he produces 120+ then yep .. 10M/yr. A Sexson like deal for sure. But if it's just over a 100, then no.

Well now that we blew 1M on this waste of space I guess we should look at the numbers & see if there is any hope. Ben- (I'm worse than Karko) Davis: Pro's: switch hitter, good fastball hitter. Strong arm catcher (32% nab rate), better than avg pitch-blocker. Con's: does his best hitting early in count. If he falls behind, almost an automatic out. Below average runner. 02 OPS avg's: 548, 684, 477, 833, 1061, 746 03 OPS avg's: 835, 805, 775, 741, 320, 424 04 OPS avg's: 327, 000, 541, 935, 396, 619 Hope? About 1/2 of his ab's last yr came in July where he posted a 935 OPS. Think of it this way. Before the signing the only C on the SOX roster with ML experience was Burke. At least this guy as 3 yrs experience as a backup.

The horror that awaits the CWS in 2005 is a 7-9 lineup that avg's about 700 OPS for the season. Not good. That's like giving away outs to the other team. Right now Crede-Davis-Harris is worthy of s***-canning the season before it starts. I'm not a big fan of AJ's either. But really anybody is better than Davis. Zaun, Greene, or AJ. Just sign one of them. Please. I disagree with most of you in think that are need for a utility player to primarily backup Harris is a must need. More important than a 3/4/5 SP. KW should be on the phone with Cairo's agent.

Submitting the papers is not the same as pulling the trigger. It's just a requirement by the commissioner's office because LAD is sending 3M to the NYY. As dumb & as ridiculous as that sounds. If you send more than 1M to a team in a trade you must submit paperwork to Selig's office. That being said once you put players out there if you don't pull the trigger it can seriously upset the chemistry of the club. In this case, however; I don't think that will be the case. Green can easily shut this trade down & no one will question his reason for doing so. He'd rather play for the 1st place LAD than the last place AZD. This is interesting as well. Ishii signed a 12.3/4 deal with LAD in 2002. The LAD owes him 5.4 mil on it. The are paying the NYY 3M to take him off their hands. Ishii had a partial no-trade clause. Each year he could list 10 teams that he did not want to be traded to. I'm sure the NYY weren't one of them. I just find the LA GM's words hilarious: "You don't make a deal like this and be left naked." How does he think that reflects on Vaquez, Koplove, & the rest of the team if he should be stuck with them? KW is definitely not the worst GM in the league. I don't even think a JD Drew signing could repair that.

AJ was put on waivers 12/14/04 & released as a non-tendered FA the next day. Zaun, AJ, or Greene would help the CWS improve. I think AJ is going to cost the most. There are a LOT of SP available so KW doesn't have any excuse for not getting a 3/4/5 starter cheap.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1950729 The never-ending trade .... ARZ -> RJ + Koplove to LAD LAD -> Green, Penny, Brazo, Weed to ARZ LAD -> RJ + Ishii + 3M to NYY NYY -> MLer Vazquez, + mler's Navarro ©, Duncan (3B) to LAD Green has yet to waive his no-trade clause or express any desire to play for ARZ. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1950463 DePodesta: "We're holding it up. As a stand-alone, it's not helping our major league team. Other moves would have to be simultaneous. You don't make a deal like this and be left naked."

W Alvarez is out of the picture. He resigned a 2 yr deal w LAD on Mon.

CBSSL updated their list of guys who declined arbitration. http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/transactions/playermovement/NL http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/transactions/playermovement/AL Some interesting names: BOS: Astacio, Lowe, McCarty, Reese, Varitek NYY: El-Duque (Hernandez), Sierra TOR: Zaun © CHC: Hollandsworth (OF) COL: Greene ©, Wright FLA: Ishmael Valdez HOU: Beltran LAD: W Alvarez, Mayne©, O Perez PHI: Glanville (OF), Either Greene or Zaun would be a big upgrade at C for the CWS. Reese is certainly an option at 2B, & W Alvarez looks intriguing as well. I'd have to believe all of them can fit under the CWS payroll budget.

For those who are lazy, FA's for CWS holes to fills: SP: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/fre...s?positionId=15 2B: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/fre...ts?positionId=4 C : http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/fre...ts?positionId=2 I wonder if KW knows about this Polanco accepted arbit w the PHI. Not much left for 2B. I'd go with M Cairo. Pickings are slim at C as well. I'd go with T Greene. There's still some pickings at SP. KW can still find a solid #4 to drop Garland down. I'd go with O Perez. Worth the $. Lieber signed a 21/3 deal with PHI? Did Hendry fall asleep at the wheel on that one?

Trackers: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/freeagents http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/hot...ent_tracker.jsp http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/04-05free.htm http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/transactions/playermovement/AL Pick one Tally: 38 FA declined arbit. If they don't sign a contract with that team by Jan 8th they can't talk again until May 15. He Gawn .. as they say. 129 FA's were not offered arbit & can't talk again until May 1st. They Gawn .. as they say. That leaves 120+ guys KW can talk to

I still think it's a horrible trade for LAD, but if they are that hard up for NYY prospects that were evaluated by ARZ as non-starters then I guess Vazquez would have more worth to NL teams. I don't buy the O's, Angels, Rangers, or CWS being interested at 34M/3 but STL, PHI, FLA, NYM, make sense as do a few other NL teams. His NL numbers are far better than his AL numbers.

I'm in agreement with most LAD fans here. How does this 10 player trade make any sense for LAD? There is no suitor for Vazquez. Not at the price of 35M. Someone please play the Devil's advocate here & explain to me how this makes sense for the LAD! NYY <- Arms RJ, Ishii + $3M from LAD ARZ <- Bat Green, & arms Penny, Brazoban, Weeden from LAD LAD <- Arms Vazquez, Koplove(ARZ) + prospects(Duncan, Dioner, Navarro) from NYY LAD shaves off a one yr cost of Green at 16M plus 4 quality ML pitchers to get a 38M cost for 2 struggling pitchers & 3 weak NYY prospects. Let's not forget that none of those NYY prospects were deemed good enough to start for ARZ. Doesn't it make more sense for the LAD to deal Green, Penny, Ishii+3M, & Weeden to ARZ for RJ, Koplove, + prospect? That gives them a few more bucks to replace Green's production & they get the best pitcher in baseball. I take comfort knowing that one of the big 6 is thinking like the CWS these days

It's the little signings that are killing me! I just read the NYY's inked Tony Womack to a 4M/2 deal to be their starting 2B. Hello? Is there anybody awake at the CWS front office? This guy is good enough to start for the NYY at a very reasonable price but not good enough for the CWS? Did KW even bother to call his agent? For those not paying attention Womack hit 307 last yr. Right now I don't see one CWS player hitting over 300 in 2005. If that doesn't convince you try this: Womack Monthly OPS: 925, 551, 833, 731, 731, 653 W Harris Monthly OPS: 623, 877, 513, 562, 726, 586 I definitely think that's a justifiable upgrade for a cost of 2M/yr!

Things will open up after Jan 8. I believe that's the last day teams have to work out a deal with a player they offered arbitration to. The Angels signed Cabrerra to a 32/4 yr deal. It was a banner year for above average to good SS. All of them with the exception of Nomar signing better than expected deals. The CWS still has prominent holes to fill at 5th starter, C, & utility bench player. They've declined arbitration to Schow & Davis. Williams must be trying to work something to fill those holes.

As reported in the LA Times this week: Dodgers fans are livid over the RJ trade & it is believed that the reaction of ticket holders is what's holding up the trade. The LAD are now less likely to do this trade unless they can announce a major signing at the same time: Drew or Lowe. Most fans continue to contact the LAD with words of "cheapskate" & "ripoff" thrown about. What they seem most upset about is that LAD are sending both RJ & Ishii & 3 MIL in cash to NYY for Vazquez, an MR, & prospects. In the words of one fan, LAD does not need the NYY to shave off Green's salary. They can deal directly with ARZ. They should be discussing a contract extension with RJ himself. If you look at the 10 player trade it's hard to argue with that. ARZ does not receive any NY players in the trade so why isn't LAD dealing directly with ARZ? LAD were a playoff team in 2004. The fan base expects them to improve upon that. Signing RJ would be such an improvement. I am beginning to believe this trade is going to collapse without major NYY $'s coming to rescue it. I think the LAD made this trade with a strong belief they would be able to spin off Vazquez on some other team. That is becoming much less likely right now. When you look at a CWS involvement the trade doesn't look nearly as bad for the LAD: LAD <- Garland, Marte, Konerko CWS -> Vazquez + prospects Looking at it through those glasses, the LAD move Green & Ishii & prospects for a # 3/4 starter, proven LH RP, & solid hitting/above avg glove 1B. That's not a bad trade, because those 3 fit under the price the LAD owed Green & what they were expected to pay the NYY for Ishii. But that's been squashed like a bug now, & I don't see the LAD pulling the trigger on this until a CWS like trade is found.

You guys are funny. The NY press reports Garland+Koney+Marte for Vazquez & you whittle that down to Koney for Vazquez. That's not going to happen. Right now I think we will be stronger in pitching & defense. Provided they remain strong & healthy I see 3 15 game winners in Buerhle, Garcia, & Contreras. I just have a feeling based on how he pitched for the CWS last year that Contreras is going to reach the 15 win mark. So that gives us 45 wins. Garland is a sure bet to improve on 2004. It was his first winning season, so I think 14 wins are a real possibility. That gives us 59 wins. We so suck at 5th starters but I think Grili & Schow give us our best bet for at least 11 wins. So that gives us 70 wins. The BP will be much improved & I think can get us 10-20 wins. That puts the team in the 80-90 win range again. Ozzie is right when he says the biggest factor in W&L's is pitching & defense. Basically by improving p&d this team is structured to avg about the same number of wins as it did with Maggs+Lee. That's why they were expendable. Whether the CWS wins the division will depend on the following: Will they get O Perez & drive the expected starter's win totals to 74? O Perez has the strong numbers to suggest 15 wins in the AL behind a solid offense. The SOX should still rank in the upper 1/2 of the AL in offense. If your expected win total from your rotation is over 70, then you are expected to be a playoff team. It's expected that the strength of your bullpen & lineup should get you the addition 20-25 wins you need to make the playoffs. Will they get Miguel Cairo as a utility player? The guy has consistent numbers that help strengthen a teams ability to retain a 750+ OPS month after month. It's very hard to make or win in the playoffs without that. Will they sign a RFA C? Todd Greene of COL will come much cheaper than AJP. Will Crede live up to expectations? He's crucial in a lineup that is no anchored by 3B,C,2B. One of the 3 positions must produce for the SOX to win the division. If the team was willing to spend 21/3 for Clement then it better be ready to spend what is needed to get O Perez.

Man are you sad. The guy's coming off a year when he stole 70 bases! Up 27 from the year before. All nick names for Pods have to be speed related: Flash Quicksilver Taz (manian Devil) Road Runner Streak Zipster el zippo Snatch Swipester Zippy I'm too tired to continue

Why didn't KW trade for either Hudson or Mulder? Did you see the price the Braves & Cards paid to secure these guys? All ml'ers! These are the kind of trades the CWS could have pulled off & should have pulled off. Especially Mulder. Just his presence alone would sell tickets seeing that he went to a local high school here. I've lost my patience with KW. Either he delivers a playoff team next year or he's fired. He can redeem himself by acquring 3 guys: Odalis Perez : a hard-throwing LH that has the NL numbers to strongly suggest he will make it in the AL. Better than Clement. LAD offered him arbitration but don't like him enough to sign him long term. Makes you wonder about the FO of the LAD these days. Miguel Cairo : a solid utlity player that is an overall better player than Harris right now. Todd Greene: There isn't much to go by but considering the COL are offering him arbitration you have to believe they expect better things ahead. A certain improvement over Davis & Burke. I think the total price tag to get these 3 guys is under the 8M range. That's 8M well spent towards a playoff drive. There is ZERO news on Odalis Perez, but that will likely change with the Clement signing.

There is no way the owner-in-waiting for the Brewers is going to let Sheets get away. I am not dissapointed in the Red Sox signing Clement for 25.5/3. Moronoti might think 8M is nothing but it's not nothing to the CWS. Contrary to what Moronoti believes a team that struggles to draw 2M in attendance every year is not going to be able to afford an 80M payroll. Especially when your most marketable player right now is an aging borderline HOF candidate in Thomas. That's reality. Again I believe Clement will struggle in the AL. I don't see anything in his numbers that make me believe otherwise. The fact the Scrubs let him go should really upset Scrub fans. He was well accustomed to the teams in the NLC & had proven success in the division. What is real is that the Scrubs just let their most consistent established pitcher go to the World Champions. Enjoy the draft pick you cheap bastards! I think the CWS will have success against him when they play BOS so it's all good for the CWS. Again Moronoti attacks the CWS for not offering Vizquel 13/3. He's stupidity does not shock me. Age matters for IFers. See R Alomar, see O Vizquel. I will be surprised if he avg's better than 250/15/75 over that contract. As for the RJ deal it is NOT a done deal. The NY press has Green waiving his no-trade clause. The LA press says Green has not done that. This 10 player 3-team block buster trade hangs on Green's decision. All the other pc's are in play. RJ has waived his clause to go to NY & is already working terms of an extension. The other 8 players of which 5 are prospects & are established players are set. As is the $ considerations. But if Green says no, the trade's dead. When you think about it in those terms the Lee trade looks worse. Vazquez for Lee + Garland is a better trade than Pods+Luiz+PTBNL. Period. If Green says no, the CWs can still get this trade done with those 2 players. Lee goes to AZ & Garland stays with LAD. Vazquez goes to CWS. Green stays put. That's a trade that could be done & I even believe the NYY would be willing to part with some cash to help pay Vazquez salary for the CWS. But now that trade is just fantasy because Williams already pulled the trigger. A trigger he didn't have to pull because Pods+Luis+PTBNL weren't going anywhere. The 10 player trade is contingent upon Green + RJ waiving their no-trade clauses. Both the NYY & AZD will have 72 hours after Selig approves the trade to convince RJ & Green to do just that. Green is far more reluctant to do than RJ. Both will seek contract extensions in that effort. LAD: Vazquez(NYY), Navarro(NYY), Duncan(NYY) + cash(NYY) NYY: RJ(ARD), PTBNL(ARD), Ishi(LAD) ARD: Green(LAD), Penny(LAD), Brazoban(LAD), PTBNL(LAD) Why are the LAD doing this trade? They are giving up 4 proven ML'ers, for Vazquez, 2 prospects, & cash. That's insane. Why don't they just trade directly with the ARD & secure RJ themselves?

The RJ deal is falling apart. Both LAD & AZD want NYY to throw in more cash. LAD lost Beltre the the M's tonight. Beltre signed a 65/5 deal with the M's. The M's recently signed Sexson to a 50/4 deal as well. This may cause LAD to re-think trading S Green who has vocally said he's not interested in a trade & has no intention of waiving his no trade clause.

Which do you think hurts a pitcher more in the AL: OBP or SLG? The answer is OBP. Why? Because the avg lineup in the AL is 200 OPS pts higher than the average lineup in the NL. That means it costs a pitcher a LOT more to put guys on in the AL then it does in the NL. Just look at Wood's #'s! The first 5 guys avg an OBP of 340+! That would crush him in the AL! It's no contest!

YOU CAN NOT TRUST NL PITCHER STATS! You really have to look at how the pitcher does vs 1-6 hitters. This is what I always use to prove BEYOND a SHADOW of a DOUBT that Buerhle is better than Wood 3 yr avg; Buerhle: OBP, SLG vs Batting #1 .288, .356 Batting #2 .285, .396 Batting #3 .358, .478 Batting #4 .308, .487 Batting #5 .358, .478 Batting #6 .312, .412 1-6 avg: 0.318, 0.434 Wood: OBP, SLG vs Batting #1 .366, .408 Batting #2 .309, .324 Batting #3 .346, .455 Batting #4 .349, .435 Batting #5 .347, .466 Batting #6 .278, .272 1-6 avg: 0.333, 0.393 Mark is the better pitcher. Especially when you compare the offenses of the ALC to the NLC over that time period. Look at the big disparity betw the 5th & 6th spots for Wood. Do you think that's because of Wood or because of the weakness in the lineups he faces? When you compare these two you have to ask yourself how would Mark fare in the NL & how would Kerry fare in the AL because that's the only way you can compare them. I think in both cases Mark wins the argument. What do the numbers prove? That Kerry loads the bases more often than not & then reliies on getting out the 7-9 hitters to get out of the inning. They'd run circles around him in the AL. Clement: OBP, SLG vs Batting #1 .314, .375 Batting #2 .274, .311 Batting #3 .398, .536 Batting #4 .372, .442 Batting #5 .292, .328 Batting #6 .276, .368 1-6 avg: 0.321, 0.393 O Perez: OBP, SLG vs Batting #1 .264, .364 Batting #2 .285, .368 Batting #3 .290, .487 Batting #4 .321, .488 Batting #5 .292, .339 Batting #6 .354, .544 1-6 avg: 0.301 0.431 I'll take Perez. The NL guys that fail in the AL always have worse OBP vs. In the AL pitchers have to keep guys off base to be successful. In the NL they have the luxury to put them on to get out of jams. Comparing the #6 batter in Perez, Wood, & Clement just goes to show how poor the lineups are in the NLC.

This is a good contract for the CWS. 2+3+4+5(opt). That's not bad at all. Here's how you assess the contract. As long as he doesn't bomb out, you can trade him any of those years. Even if his performance declines somewhat. But in addition if his performance improves you have the possibility of an extension any of those years. Let's see how he compares to Tejada: Juan Uribe: VS. LEFT: .264 / .853 VS. RIGHT: .293 / .821 HOME: .315 / .959 AWAY: .248 / .696 OPS avg: 1030, 884, 720, 419, 884, 1006 M Tejada: VS. LEFT: .327 / 1.012 VS. RIGHT: .306 / .856 HOME: .303 / .887 AWAY: .318 / .902 OPS avg: 827, 896, 839, 1019, 870, 925 I'm willing to say that against RH & at home that comparison is reasonable, but against LH & away I don't see it ever happening. That's what separates the stars from just better than average players. Tejada's a complete ball player. Still Uribe had 1 dismal month out of 6. The other 5 months were average, good, good, great, & great. That's pretty good.

Might I remind you the SOX have NEVER won a bidding war for a FA. Ever. This smells so much like the A-Rod fiasco where the SOX were used to grab the highest bidders. If the CWS is offering 30/3, then I am sure it's either heavily deferred or has strings attached. Yes he pitched at Wrigley Field & that's a plus but he also pitched vs the NLC & that's a big minus. The NLC has two of the worst offenses in baseball in the Pirates & Brewers. Add to that fact that the 7-8-9 hitters avg an OPS that is 200 pts less than in the AL & I just don't see a 30/3 AL pitcher in Matt Clement. In contrast look at Odalis Perez. He's got better stuff, can be had for 1/2 that price & has pitched in the NLW which has featured some of the best offensive teams in the NL. I do see a 15/3 AL pitcher in Odalis Perez.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/hot...s&teamPosCode=4 This is a good link to keep track of FAs. My CWS Christmas list. better not dissapoint me Odaliz Perez - LHSP, 5M 3.25 era. LAD offered arbit. VS. LEFT: .277 / .801 VS. RIGHT: .241 / .680 HOME: .238 / .681 AWAY: .259 / .732 Features a low 90's fastball-slider with a solid changeup & curve. He keeps the ball down most of the time. He's easy to run on, but I think Ozzie can help him there. A better than average defender. He was healthy last yr & threw 196+ inn. Todd Greene - RHC, 600K, COL offered arbit. 282BA, 10HR, 35RBI VS. LEFT: .366 / 1.155 VS. RIGHT: .234 / .646 HOME: .299 / .915 AWAY: .261 / .733 I'm just looking for an improvement over Davis & Burke & this guy is clearly it. Should be signable for a few million a year. About 1/2 the price of AJP or a CJ. Miguel Cairo - RH2B, 900K, NYY declined arbit. 292BA, 6HR, 42RBI VS. LEFT: .336 / .822 VS. RIGHT: .267 / .730 HOME: .319 / .836 AWAY: .262 / .682 Again I'm just looking for an improvement over Harris & this guy is it. Should be signable for a million a yr. About a 1/4th of the price of Polanco. A good fastball hitter w decent speed, good range, & good instincts. His versatility makes him a good choice for a utility player in both the IF & OF. Rotation: Buerhle, Garcia, Perez, Contreras, Garland Bullpen : Schow/Adkins/young-gun, Politte, Vizcaino, Hermannson, Marte, Shingo Lineup : Pods, Uribe, Thomas, Koney, Dye, Rowand, Crede, Greene, Harris. Bench : Davis, Cairo, Everett, Gload, Burke/Sweeney Cairo is a perfect fit for the utility guy, Gload can play 1B or RF, so the SOX can either go with 3 C's or another backup OF. Given the weakness in their C depth they might be best off going with 3 C's. I think this team can win the ALC & compete in the post-season. To be a favorite to win in the post-season you probably need to replace Harris with Polanco & Garland with Vasquez. Those deals are possible but it would boost the payroll to the mid-high 70 range. That's heart attack territory for JR