JUGGERNAUT

They are talking about Uribe on the radio right now. They said that when they saw him in the ml's they felt he was a can't miss prospect because of his cannon arm & his stick. Ok now how many of you thought we would be 5 gms up on Minny after 20 gms? I sure didn't. This is a great story. If/When the Sox earn their 20th win on or before May 1st the national media is going to open it's eye & start picking up on the story.

The radio guys I think have it nailed. Both El Duque & Garland are throwing similar stuff. They are keeping the ball down which generates more GBs but making good use of high fastballs to keep the hitters honest. Both AJ & Widger seem adept at putting a target out there for them to keep it down. These are not wimpy grounders either. There pretty hard hit balls which is why there aren't many easy plays for Uribe. His arm is really making the difference on some of these. I'll look for it in the stats but I bet the Sox are among the league leaders in preventing SF's & SH's.

A little bit of concern though as Garland took a stinger winger off his leg for the 2nd out to Guch. Hopefully it won't be anything more than a bruise. I kid you not though. When you watch the Garland starts just keep watching as the inning ends. He waits for Uribe to thank him. That's the kind of team chemistry you want to see. That's the kind of thing that makes it more fun for both & gives them that little extra to give a little more next time. You don't see that on all teams. I never see Prior do it.

Garland now has 17 quality/winnable starts in his last 23 games. Amongst them there are 7 dominant starts (7IP, <= 2ER). In April he now has 3 dominant starts in a row. Koney boosts our RISP, 2 out sit. Drives in two on a solid hit in the T9th. Dye K's for the 3rd out. 6-0 SOX. Jon is coming back to get the CG-SO as his pc's 106. For those of you who think Uribe is just above avg I want you to watch Garland whenever Uribe makes a stellar play. At the end of the inning Jon waits for him so that he can thank him. Uribe made yet another stellar play to open the 9th. That arm affords him such great latitude to make plays. Garland gets the CG-SO & once again turns to Uribe first for thanks.

Recording: Garland now has 17 quality/winnable starts in his last 23 games. Amongst them there are 7 dominant starts (7IP, <= 2ER). In April he now has 3 dominant starts in a row. Jon is sitting at a pc of 106. BL, 2 outs for Koney in the T9th. I'm betting Oz gives the pen a night off & let's Jon go for the CG-SO.

Ozuna did a fine job tonight but that's not to say Pods couldn't have done a better job. However Oz might be wanting to take it easy with Pods because of the prior injury. I can't argue with that. He knows how these guys feel day to day. We don't. I think the Sox are leading the league in prevention of infield hits. I've not seen many at all vs them this year. Garland works another 1-2-3 in the 8th. T9th. Ozuna up to bat.

Well this is new. Ozuna at 3B, Perez at LF. Garland has an easy 1-2-3 in the 7th. 4-0 SOX. Koney stranded Everett at 3B w 2 outs in the T7th. Dye to LO T8th. Garland racks up another dominant start. Ozuna proves to be as good or better than Pods would have (the Ozzie touch). And Widger proves that SLG is more important that BA in a backup C. Ozzie is trully blessed & it's rubbing off on the team. Thanks be to God. Easy 1-2-3 for Street in T8th. But Uribe made it interesting w a ball to the track for Kotsay.

It's 4-0 T7th. It's not talent. It's luck. :rolly Garland's on his way to his 17th quality start over his last 23. Maybe I should start keep tracking of his dominant starts DP - 1 (J Uribe-T Iguchi-P Konerko). Uribe's arm bought Garland an out in the 6th. Widger (vs OAK .333A .429O .417S) just hit a 2R HR (scoring Rowand) in the T7th. Crede, Ozuna just scored on a double by Carl Everett. I'm going to start thinking of Ozzie as King Midas! Every move he makes turns to Gold.

It's 0-0 after 6 IP. It's not talent. It's luck. :rolly Garland's on his way to his 17th quality/ start over his last 23. Maybe I should start keep tracking of his dominant starts DP - 1 (J Uribe-T Iguchi-P Konerko). Uribe's arm bought Garland an out in the 6th. Still waiting for Pods to enter the game. :headshake Ozzie.

It's 0-0 after 5 IP. It's not talent. It's luck. :rolly Garland's on his way to his 17th good start over his last 23. DP - 1 (J Uribe-T Iguchi-P Konerko). Still waiting for Pods to enter the game. :headshake Ozzie.

It's 0-0 after 3 IP. It's not talent. It's luck. :rolly Garland's on his way to his 17th good start over his last 23. When is Pods coming into this game? Why is Ozuna rewarded with an extra start after the game winning hit at the expense of Pods?

We can gain a full game on the Twins (5gb) & a 1/2 game on Cle (off). What does Ozzie do? He sits Pods. Pods 05 vs LH (.545A .545O .636S). Pods 02-05 vs LH (.246A .312O .387S). Those aren't exactly horrible numbers & I think since this is his 1st yr facing AL LHers I'd give him the benefit of the doubt. As for Ozuna 02-05 vs LH (.091A .130O .091S). I'm sorry but this is just a dumb move by Ozzie. Pods beats him statistically no matter how you measure it.

In the days of the SS hit men I was much too young to be aware of that racial stuff. I cheered for Oscar, Goose, & the rest. The drinking was much heavier as was smoking but again I was too young to know what was legal & what was not. I do remember Harry. I would always watch him in between innings. I always grabbed my Dad's or brother's jacket when it looked like he was going to fall out of the booth. He used to lean over it a lot. I was a big fan of Harry. Cub fans won't like to hear this but as a burban N-sider who had ample choice between the Sox & the Cub as a youngster it was the personality of the Sox & the old ball park that made me a Sox-lifer. Attending a Cub game seemed boring in comparison. Maybe I'm rare & maybe now it's all about what the parents think more than the kids. Maybe the parents dictate which personality a kid should like. But I personally like the fire of our fans, the homerism of our announcers, & the fire of our rival fans that attend the games. There's a happy medium between personality & obnoxious behavior & I think for the most part the Sox have found that. I'm hoping for Dinosaur Day before the season ends. The first 5,000 kids get a dinosaur autographed by none other than Carl Everett himself If I were a kid today that would leave a memorable impression in my mind.

He mentions the 8-3 start. We are now 15-4. The team is hitting .297 with runners on base. I'll believe the impending demise when I see that number drop. Pods+Iggy have a combined 360 OPB. That's what many of us felt had to happen. Harris has scored 6R in 19AB in limited action. He's one of our best hitters against RHers. Hard to believe? He hit 279 vs them last yr. He's avg'g 2H more per 25 AB's this year. He leads the team in OBP. I liken him to an NBA 6th man. I'm not out to beat up analysts or even pessimists but I think you need to see signs of weakness before you can shout the demise of the White Sox. The staff is built for quality starts. The numbers going into the season gave us that edge over the ALC. The only think different is that we've seen more dominant starts & have yet to experience a string of poor starts. But again when those poor starts come it's not the beginning of the end. These 5 starters have what it takes to produce 100 winnable starts. As long as team can maintain a better than 4 RPGA we should win most of those starts. We did all the analysis before the season started factoring in the new players. The conclusion was they should be able to maintain a better than 4 RPGA for most of the season. It has to do with when players traditionally get hot & when they cool down. I have no reason to believe that won't happen. I still contend the only thing that can de-rail this team is the injury bug. We have 3 key players who are high risk (Dye, Everett, & Hernandez). We will need some good blessings that the team remains healthy the whole season. We have proven we can win w/out Thomas. We will only be that much stronger with him.

What is intangible (hard to quantify) is thier value. Some people would value a hit more than a sacrifice. I would not. A sacrifice means the play moved a runner over possibly leading to a R. A hit may or may not have done that. I would value a RON hit more than a sacrifice. Some people would value a DB over a SB. I would not. A SB means a runner gained a base due to a weakness in the oppositions defense. Whether it be the pitcher, the C, or the MIF covering the bag. It gets under a teams skin & that usually leads to greater weakness. A DB can be earned w a good hit on a solid pitch or a weak pitch. It doesn't carry the same mental impact. Again I would value a RON DB more than a SB. A bunt or infield hit (SH) has a similar impact. It's a gain due primarily to the opposition's weakness. Sagarin doesn't value these stats the same as I do. He does not distinquish RON situations from NON situations in his RPG calculations. IMO that's a mistake. What a player does in a RON sit is far more important than what he does in a NON sit. Especially if he does not have good speed. The same can be said for the out related stats. I consider assists & dps as more complex plays. The more adept a team is at making the complex play the greater the range of plays the team can record for outs. With respect to PO's when calculating what I call a player's effective RF & ZR I consider a DP worth 2 PO's & an Assist worth 1. That's my own value applied to these complex plays & that opinion is not shared by all.

BTW, dating back to Jul 04, Garland now has 16 quality-winnable starts in his last 22 starts. 6+IP, <= 4R given up. Most of them were <= 3R. I'm tending towards the belief that the new defense playing behind him has made him even better.

I challenge any & all pessimists to build their best arguments. I love destroying them Here's another one. Garland will fall back to Earth. Dating back to Jul 04, he now has 16 quality-winnable starts over his last 22. That's 16 starts where he has pitched at least 6 in, & given up no more than 4r. The majority of those starts were 3r or less. Maybe he's found himself a nice stable orbit

Definitely some credit goes to the staff for inducing GB's. I wouldn't shy away from giving AJ some of the credit as well. But if you look at some of the plays Uribe is making if it were not for his arm strength & ability to fire rockets those DP's aren't turned & those jam situations give up R's. Many of the Uribe DP's have been tight so if you replace him with someone else they might not get turned. You can look at the DP thread to see just how important many of them were. Now maybe the Sox still come back & win those games. They have done that in some games. But to me that's not the point. I can't think of anything easier to boost a pitcher's confidence than the knowledge that if they throw strikes & keep the ball down Uribe & company will get the outs & help them get out of jams. That leads to pitchers who will become more aggresive as the season goes on & challenge the hitters more. El Duque was 8-2 in 15 starts with the NYY's last year. I'm sure some of that was defense related. I'm not going to knock these guys or believe the worse in them until there's reason to believe it. Look at some other pitching stats: HRA Sox 7th (14), Cle 2nd (11), Min 25th (24). DBA Sox 15th (32), Min 1st (16). It's not like the Sox are pitching so far over their heads not to believe in the wins. They have given up more 2B's than any other ALC team. Yet they are able to keep those runs from scoring better than any other ALC team. It goes w/out saying that the HRA/gm avg is going to increase in the warmer months. It always does. But it should go w/out saying that the Sox have a lineup to hit more HR's in those months as well. HR Sox 10th (20). Min 12th (18). Despite the struggles of Dye, Rowand, AJ, & Koney (Everett's digressing as well now), we still lead the ALC in HR's. So why shouldn't we expect more HR's when they heat up? Finally, I mentioned this before the season started. The new players are more road warriors than road bums. Especially Pods. I think that's going to carry us through the tough times when guys have poor starts. I don't worry about this team playing at the Cell. We have proven success there. That won't change.

The 2005 White Sox are amongst the league leaders in intangibles (SF, SH, SB), defense (TC, PO, A, DP, F%), & pitching (2.84 ERA SP, 3.81 ERA RP). I don't think you would the say the same about the 2003 Royals. What they might have in common is that the 2005 White Sox are hitting 297A with runners on. That overshadows the poor #'s w RISP. They are strong against LH & about avg against RH. The most reliable players (Dye, AJ, Rowand, & Koney) are struggling while others are doing well (Pods, Crede, Harris, Uribe, Iggy). You would expect the most reliable players to pick it up & some of the players doing well to cool off (Harris, Crede). Harris is a seldom used player so I see that expected turn of events as a boost in R production. I think you should all sit back & enjoy the winning. If the Sox should fall from the leader group in the intangibles, defense, & pitching that will be the time to worry. But there's no reason to believe that will happen. This team was built to be in that lead group.

Was the 2003 KC team amongst the league leaders in intangibles, pitching, & defense in those early months? I don't think so. The 2005 White Sox are. The 2005 Sox are avg'g 3.37RA/gm. That would put them at 81RA to finish Apr. The 2005 Sox are avg's 4.53RS/gm. That would put them at 109RS to finish Apr. 109RS, 81RA vs 122RS, 95RA. They were 12% better than us at RS, & we are 17% better than they were at RA. Our greater strength in run prevention outweighs their strength at scoring runs. They finished Apr 16-7. We are likely to finish Apr 18-6 (.750W%). We're a better team than the 2003 KC team.

What you've come to expect from me of the years is that if I find a stat I don't like I will find another to weaken it Here we go: Errors. I mentioned the Sox were 2 behind Minny but I didn't mention the difference in TC's & PO's. The Sox have 745 TC's (4th) to Minny's 649 (30th). The Sox have 519 PO's (6th) to Minny's 450 (29th). Needless to say Minny is living on the K-out right now to win games. When Minny records that many PO's with that many TC's let's look at the error totals. The mean for errors among the top 6 teams in TC's & PO's is 13. The Sox have 14. Needless to say the White Sox lead the ALC in both TC"s & PO's. For the record I was not putting down Jose. His Assists, DP's, TC's, & PO's far outweighed his errors in 2000 & were a big part of our success that year. All that I've said is that Uribe is filling that role on the 2005 Sox. Uribe 05: 153 IP. 1.86 IP/TC, 7.28 IP/PO, 2.63 IP/A, 51 IP/E, 12.153 IN/DP JoseV00: 1212 IP. 1.66 IP/TC, 5.17 IP/PO, 2.65 IP/A, 33.6 IP/E, 10.27 IN/DP Uribe SS: .972F% 5.16RF .847ZR (career #'s at SS) JoseV 00: .950F% 5.12RF .847ZR (best Sox year)

There are two intangible categories where we re not the best in the ALC: OF assists & errors. KC has 6, Min has 3, Sox 2, Det 1, Cle 0. I don't think we need to fear KC (20 errors) How good your team is defensively is a measure of the R's you give up, your DP's, your IF assists, your OF assists, & errors%. We lead the ALC in all but the last 2. We lag Min by 1 in OFA, & 2 in errors. Only 2 teams in the majors have given up fewer R's than the Sox. IF assists & DP's make the difference between winning & losing when you're not scoring many runs. Of course are inability to score R's is another myth. The Sox are 14th in R scored. 2nd in the ALC Behind Detroit (7th). So we are scoring more R's than Minny & giving up fewer R's than Minny & yet were only going to play .400 the rest of the year. . If we remain healthy that's crazy.

This has to be a joke. Jose has played with Crede all that time. This Uribe's first year playing with Crede. Joe makes a difference in the DP equation. Plus you are ignoring assists not to mention Jose's throwing errors. Right now my Sox fan friend Uribe is on a pace to exceed Val's 2000 numbers in both DP's & assists. Until he falls off that pace I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. If he was so inept at getting to balls as you say then statistically we would see more GB hits on our pitchers. Look it up. It's not the case. What I find the most irrational of these pessimists is how they ignore history. The White Sox have finished 2nd 3 yrs in a row because they couldn't overcome injuries to star players. The worst being 2001, 2004. If those teams remain healthy we finish 1st. There's no doubt in my mind about that. So if I were to argue on the side of the pessimists I would point to the injury curse that has plagued this team. I would say it's more likely we will lose star players (Hernandez, Everett) than keep them healthy. Because that's what history shows us. I would never argue a losing season based on the talent level of the team remaining healthy. Finally, winning a division is not just about the White Sox. The other ALC play matters as well. They are lagging far behind in the intangibles. The Twins amongst the leaders in GIDPs. Is there any reason for me to believe that any other ALC team is capable of winning more games than the White Sox right now? No. All of them have had substantial changes to their roster that effect team speed, hitting, pitching, & defense. There's no reason to ignore their play to date.

Let me make this perfectly clear for the pessimists. The Sox are 15-4 because this team has much better arm strength & control than previous yrs. That is obvious in the rotation, the bullpen & most important of all the infield. Crede, Uribe, & Iggy all have solid & accurate arms to fire rockets to get outs. That's what's been evident in the first 19 gms. The intangibles that you choose to chalk up to luck: DP's (8th), Assists (6th), SB (6th), SH (8th), SF (1st), GIDP (30th), LOB (28th). The last two are the ones you want to be last in They rank better than any other ALC team in every one of those categories. Offensively we rank 15th in TB (better than all other ALC teams). Despite the fact that 1/2 of the team is hitting below their career & 3 yr avg's & the other 1/2 is hitting above them. So if you are going to argue statistically against the upper 1/2 then you have to make the same argument for the lower 1/2. The net result should be better than what we're producing now because of the AB's & expected playing time of those players. Now if you want to believe it's luck go right ahead. I prefer to believe that this is what KW & the OZ hoped for when they made the changes they did over the past year & half.

There's a big difference. Yours is based ALMOST entirely on your subjective opinion. It practically ignores stats entirely. Show me statistically where Valentin in past yrs has proven to be a better SS than Uribe has this year. Subjectively I think Uribe's arm is substantially better than Jose's & that's the main reason we are turning the DP's. It's not luck. It's talent. Uribe's current pace will exceed Val's in both DP's & assists. As for Thomas, his impact is felt not just in OBP but the number of pitches he consumes & the quality of pitches he consumes. He's one of the toughest outs in MLB (statistically supported fact) & that helps everyone in the lineup. Nothing you said about Garland changes the fact that for his career he is a 3.66 era pither in May. That again is a statistically supported fact. So if he's going to balloon like you believe he is it would occur in the warmer months. No one is expecting him to have 20 wins like E-LO. But right now his pitching has been bolstered by solid defense that has allowed him to get out of jams. I don't see any reason to believe that will change. So whether he falls to Earth will depend on whether he can keep the ball down & prevent HRs. Now to suddenly extend this fall to Earth scenario to the rest of the rotation is irrational. Look at the m-2-m #'s for Garcia & Buerhle. They are good for 25 winnable starts a year. That's a statistical fact. Hernandez is a wild card because of health but BMac promises more in recovery than we've seen in several yrs. Contreras statistically defies his talent. So why should I believe it's more likely he will fall than rise? As for the defensive improvements they are pretty clear to any one who watches the games. Pods has more range in LF than Lee did. Pods has enough speed & experience to sub for Rowand in CF. An option we did not have in yr's past. You are the only person I think on the planet who does not believe that Dye is one of the better defensive outfielders in the league. Again his arm is substantially better than Maggs. You're comparison of Val to Uribe is insane. Unless you are referring to Val of 2000. Any one who bothers to watch most of the games knows that Crede is one the best 3B for getting outs on anything hit in front of him. There is no one better. His weakness has been anything hit near or past the bag & so far this year he has looked better than past years. As for Konerko his arm is better than most & he's made some good stops in past yrs & this yr. You undervalue him defensively. Now I can prove all this by posting ZR numbers for all of these players & compare them to the rest in the ALC but it's much easier to comment on how they play in the field. All Sox fans can see that. As for the bench what matters most are the R, RBI, & TB. They are producing as I indicated above. It's useless to look at overall stats because bench players are used mostly in situations & matchups. vs LH: Ozuna (.333A .333O .444S) , vs RH: Harris (.353A .421O .353S) That's why both are likely to remain after Thomas returns. The team as a whole: vs LH: .297A .306O .428S, vs RH: .248A .296O .390S The team is 15-4 because of talent. Luck has been on their side but it doesn' t generate back to back hits to drive in the tying & winning run like it did on Sun. That's talent.