JUGGERNAUT

This team has avg'd 48W at home since 2000. Not much of a fluctuation there. The range has been 51W-47W. They've proven they can win at home w or w/out good starts. This team has been awful on the road the past 4 yrs. Avg'g 36W on the road (lowest 34W). Apr: 11G @ Cell, 14G on road. We could really use Mark for the series in OAK but I'm thankful to the sched makers it represents the end of a road trip. My hope lies in opening the season at home. We are 2 wks away from the opener & feels like it's 27 deg outside. I don't see it suddenly feeling like 70 deg. I think this favors the ChiSox early on. With the air being heavier it should cut down the HR's. That should really help Garcia & Hernandez. Catch some momentum at home & maybe they'll play better on the road.

Sherlock, I'm one of the most optimistic people on this board. But I'm not going to put blinders on. In comparison to the Twins we are long shots. In comparison to CLE, & DET I give us the edge. Mays is looking very good for the Twins right now & that makes the best rotation in the ALC much better. They have the edge on us in rotation, pen, & OF. We have the edge in the IF but two holes of our own at 2B, 3B. I would say that makes us a long shot to overtake them now that we've lost road starts from Mark vs MIN, CLE, & OAK.

The ChiSox will need a whole lot of luck to get out of April above 500. The ChiSox were long shots to win the division to start with so there's not as much pressure to win this year. Put BMac in at #3 & let him grow.

Let's think about this. They go out & trade for Garcia, Contreras, & sign Hernandez to insure that Garland is the 5th. Contreras looks awful right now. I do not see Ozzie moving the starter who's having the worst spring to the 3rd spot. He's more likely to move BMac there.

Wishful thinking. Rots: Santana, Radke, Mays, Silva, Lohse vs Mark B/Garcia, Garcia/Hernandez, Hernandez/BMac, Contreras/Garland, Garland : Advantage Twins. Pen: Advantage Twins IF: Advantage ChiSox OF: Advantange Twins That's too much of an advantage to the Twins. Only chance the ChiSox win the division is if they get lucky & the Twins get unlucky.

Let's hope for the best with Mark but I have to say ... Santana, Radke, Mays, Silva, Lohse vs Garcia, Hernandez, BMac, Garland, Contreras doesn't look good at all for ChiSox fans. It took Santana 2 yrs of pen/starter experience to get his ERA < 5. We are expecting a hell of a lot from BMac. We were planning for BMac to get seasoned in AAA & then come up when El Duque goes on the DL (which we all know is going to happen!). Now, it looks like Cotts will fill that role later on.

Top 1st string hitters (01-04) in MLB: Based on Sag's RPG top 30 rankings. rank #1 = 31 pts, rank #30 = 1 pt. 120 Bonds, Barry 112 Ramirez, Manny 111 Helton, Todd 99 Rodriguez, Alex 99 Thome, Jim 98 Berkman, Lance 96 Pujols, Albert 95 Sheffield, Gary 94 Edmonds, Jim 86 Delgado, Carlos 85 Giles, Brian 84 Giambi, Jason 77 Walker, Larry 72 Jones, Chipper 65 Ordonez, Magglio 63 Gonzalez, Luis 61 Sosa, Sammy - dropping fast 59 Beltran, Carlos 58 Guerrero, Vladimir 57 Bagwell, Jeff 56 Palmeiro, Rafael 47 Ortiz, David 47 Posada, Jorge 47 Rolen, Scott 45 Martinez, Edgar 43 Williams, Bernie 42 Abreu, Bobby 42 Nixon, Trot 42 Sweeney, Mike 37 Boone, Bret 35 Burks, Ellis 35 Floyd, Cliff 35 Jeter, Derek 35 Konerko, Paul 34 Olerud, John 34 Thomas, Frank - only 2 appearances due to injury 32 Alou, Moises 31 Chavez, Eric 31 Green, Shawn 31 Kent, Jeff 30 Mora, Melvin 30 Vidro, Jose 29 Hafner, Travis 29 Klesko, Ryan 28 Drew, J.D. - 55/5 deal w LAD 28 Suzuki, Ichiro 27 Alomar, Roberto 27 Tejada, Miguel 26 Dunn, Adam 26 Nevin, Phil 25 Garciaparra, Nomar 25 Matsui, Hideki 24 Mueller, Bill 24 Salmon, Tim 23 Durazo, Erubiel 23 Giles, Marcus 23 Mientkiewicz, Doug 22 Beltre, Adrian 22 Guillen, Carlos 22 Ramirez, Aramis 21 Sexson, Richie - 50/5 deal w SEA 20 Huff, Aubrey 20 Lee, Carlos 20 Lowell, Mike 19 Durham, Ray 19 Piazza, Mike 19 Stewart, Shannon 19 Teixeira, Mark 18 Casey, Sean 18 Catalanotto, Frank 18 Guillen, Jose 18 Hidalgo, Richard 18 Lee, Derrek 18 Suzuki, Ichiro 17 Rowand, Aaron 17 Wells, Vernon 15 Koskie, Corey 15 Loretta, Mark 15 Renteria, Edgar 15 Rodriguez, Ivan 15 Soriano, Alfonso 14 Aurilia, Rich 14 Burnitz, Jeromy 14 Ibanez, Raul 13 Burrell, Pat 13 Cabrera, Miguel 13 Young, Dmitri 12 Hinske, Eric 12 Millar, Kevin 12 Wilkerson, Brad 11 Alfonzo, Edgardo 11 Everett, Carl 11 Glaus, Troy 11 Jenkins, Geoff 11 Overbay, Lyle 10 Bellhorn, Mark 10 Lo Duca, Paul 10 McGriff, Fred 10 Varitek, Jason 9 Damon, Johnny 9 Kendall, Jason 9 Spivey, Junior 8 Blalock, Hank 8 Jones, Andruw 7 Finley, Steve 7 Grace, Mark 7 Hatteberg, Scott 7 Lopez, Javy 6 Anderson, Garret 6 Ford, Lew 6 Payton, Jay 5 Podsednik, Scott 4 Conine, Jeff 4 Wilson, Preston 3 Cruz, Jose Jr. 3 Ventura, Robin 3 Young, Michael 2 Biggio, Craig 2 Cameron, Mike 2 Kotsay, Mark 1 Estrada, Johnny 1 Hunter, Torii 1 Valentin, Jose I think it's very doubtful Koney will sign for less than 50/5. The fact some of it is deferred helps but he's not going to sign a contract for less than 5 yrs.

This is a pretty depressing thread so let me add some more reasons to cry: http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/springStat...pitch&year=2005 Radke is struggling but he always does in ST & the 1st half. J Mays 1.29ERA, 3GS, 14IP. Nathan, Rincon are doing their thing. It looks like Mays is back to form. He's produced more at the ML level the past 4 yrs than El Duque, Garland, & Contreras. He's out performing Silva & Lohse so we might be seeing Mays slotted at #3. This really sucks. They get stronger & we get weaker. They should have let Pohlad contract his team.

Santana's halve's: Pre-AS 00: 1W 2L 6.85ERA Pos-AS 00: 1W 1L 6.05ERA Pre-AS 01: 1W 0L 4.74ERA Pos-AS 01: 0W 0L 9.00ERA Pre-AS 02: 4W 1L 2.45ERA Pos-AS 02: 4W 5L 3.31ERA Pre-AS 03: 4W 2L 3.00ERA Pos-AS 03: 8W 1L 3.13ERA Pre-AS 04: 7W 6L 3.78ERA Pos-AS 04: 13W 0L 1.21ERA Playoffs 04: 1W 0L 0.75ERA, ST 05: J Santana 1W 0L 0.00ERA 9.0IP Who are we kidding? The guy is poised to pick up where he left off. Santana-Radke are the best 1-2 in the AL on the strength of Santana alone. RJ-Mussina, Schilling-Clement are challengers but not favorites.

Small sample size or not, Borchy is clearly seeing the ball better & is making solid contact. Timo's best value on the team is his RISP #'s. Though Borchy hasn't put up those numbers at the ML level he has put up even better numbers at the ml level. If Borchy has 20 RBI before ST breaks I'd take him over Timo. Timo has no potential. Borchy has tons.

Congress holds the anti-trust exemption as the trump card. There's no question the IOC will have an impact on collegiate sports. That impact should trickle down to high schools. The pressure will increase over that time for MLB. That exemption is just as important to the players as the owners.

How do we go from a broken foot to a fractured toe? Who made the initial diagnosis? If it's just the toe, it's possible he'll just miss the rest of ST.

Marks APR 2004 starts: @KC 6.2IP, 2er @NY 8.0IP, 0er vKC 6.0IP, 5er vNY 2.0IP, 8er vTB 7.2IP, 5er That takes some of the sting out of the news.

2004 HR tally/month: APR 28, 25, 45, 29, 53, 41 - HR's given up The Sox didn't play their first Cell game until Apr 13. Opening at home is certainly going to help this year. Mark B says he's feeling good today so they are going to do a 2nd MRI.

Sometimes you've got to strike while the iron is hot. BMac is pitching phenomenally in AZ right now. Yes, I remember Munoz but a starter's capacity is much different. If BMac has 2-3 wins in April I say keep in the rotation. He won't wreck him. He has a solid head on his shoulders (unlike Jon). We have to get real with Contreras. The only way he's traded is if he's pitching good. A salary dump of a quality player. Otherwise it will cost too much to trade him in either $ or talent. As far as a closer the question is would he prove to be a better choice than Shingo, Marte, or Herm? I don't think so. Contreras is a head case right now, Marte lost some dominance vs RH (but has been working on throwing hard & inside on them in ST), & Shingo's effectiveness in AZ says nothing about his effectiveness at the Cell. The Sox are fortunate that this happened now given they are opening at home in April. The cold weather definitely favors the arms.

I'll wait & see what Ozzie says but I'd be surprised if BMac is the 5th. They were already leaning towards BMac in the rotation because Contreras looks confused. It wouldn't make sense to give Contreras the extra start or two.

ESPN radio said they we're already leaning in that direction because Contreras looks pretty bad. BMac's a lock now. Assuming he finishes ST strong he's probably our #3. The plus side: BMac in rotation. If he can get through April with a winning record, we will be all the stronger for it. Jon & Jose have got to see the writing on the wall now. If BMac gets it done one of them is not likely to remain on the team when Mark returns. They are competing against each other to stay in the rotation. Garland has substantially more trade value than Contreras because of his price tag. But the best case for the ChiSox would be to trade Contreras. I hope Kenny gives BMac a chance & doesn't lose his cool & overpay greatly to acquire another accomplished starter.

Not June! May. At least it will only affect April. Apr 4,off,6,7: vs CLE Garcia, Hernandez, BMac vs Westbrook, Milwood, Lee We can win this series. Apr 8, 9, 10 @ MIN: Garland, Garcia, Hernandez vs Lohse,Santana,Radke Should scrape out a win. Apr 11,12,13, off @ CLE: BMac, Garland, Contreras vs Sabathia, Lee, Davis Should scrape out a win. Apr 15,16,17 vs SEA: Garcia, Hernandez, BMac vs ?,?,? We can win this series. Apr 18,19 v MIN: Garland, Contreras vs Lohse,Santana We'll be swept. Apr 20,21 @ DET: Garcia, Hernandez vs ?,? We can win this series. Apr 22,23,24 @ KCR: BMac, Garland, Contreras vs ?,?,? We can win this series. Apr 25,26,27,off @ OAK: Garcia, Hernandez, BMac vs ?,?,? We can win this series. Apr 29,30, May 1 vs DET: Garland, Garcia, Buehrle vs ?,?,? We can win this series. It's not as bad as some of you think. Assuming BMac doesn't suffer the curse of rookie starter for the ChiSox

We are trully F'd. No Thomas & no Mark B for April. I'm not worried about Garcia, but now El Duque is #2, BMac #3, Garland #4, & Contreras #5. Garland & Contreras have not been very impressive this spring. Ozzie's biggest decision of the year might be whether to add a 12th arm or keep the extra bench bat. Apr 4,off,6,7: vs CLE Garcia, Hernandez, BMac vs Westbrook, Milwood, Lee Apr 8, 9, 10 @ MIN: Garland, Garcia, Hernandez vs Lohse,Santana,Radke Apr 11,12,13, off @ CLE: BMac, Garland, Contreras vs Sabathia, Lee, Davis Apr 15,16,17 vs SEA: Garcia, Hernandez, BMac vs ?,?,? APr 18,19 v MIN: Garland, Contreras vs Lohse,Santana Apr 20,21 @ DET: Garcia, Hernandez vs ?,? Apr 22,23,24 @ KCR: BMac, Garland, Contreras vs ?,?,? Apr 25,26,27,off @ OAK: Garcia, Hernandez, BMac vs ?,?,? Apr 29,30, May 1 vs DET: Garland, Garcia, Buehrle vs ?,?,? In ST, Crede, & Iggy are struggling. You need pinch hitters on the bench for these guys. I think you need to just try & tough in out with 11 arms & rely on a very experienced pen. Likewise the cold weather in April gives the advantage to the arms.

Revised list of top starters (01-04) in MLB: 109 Schilling, Curt 100 Hudson, Tim 89 Zito, Barry 88 Johnson, Randy 87 Clemens, Roger 87 Mussina, Mike 84 Martinez, Pedro 84 Schmidt, Jason 83 Mulder, Mark ***** TRUE ACE CUTOFF MARK ***** 71 Maddux, Greg 71 Moyer, Jamie 69 Buehrle, Mark 69 Garcia, Freddy 69 Wakefield, Tim 67 Vazquez, Javier 65 Wood, Kerry 63 Ortiz, Russ 61 Sabathia, C.C. 59 Clement, Matt 52 Halladay, Roy 51 Morris, Matt 48 Colon, Bartolo 47 Wells, David 47 Zambrano, Carlos ***** QUESTIONABLE ACE CUTOFF MARK ***** 46 Wolf, Randy 45 Leiter, Al 45 Nomo, Hideo 44 Millwood, Kevin 44 Weaver, Jeff 43 Lopez, Rodrigo 43 Radke, Brad 42 Lidle, Cory 42 Perez, Odalis 42 Washburn, Jarrod 41 Burnett, A.J. 39 Lowe, Derek 39 Pettitte, Andy 38 Oswalt, Roy 37 Miller, Wade 36 Glavine, Tom 36 Lieber, Jon 36 Redman, Mark 35 Pineiro, Joel 35 Webb, Brandon 34 Lilly, Ted 32 Hernandez, Livan 31 Escobar, Kelvim 30 Pavano, Carl 30 Santana, Johan (Only 1 appearance) 30 Sheets, Ben 29 Brown, Kevin 28 Burkett, John 27 Batista, Miguel 27 Harden, Rich 27 Loaiza, Esteban 26 Prior, Mark 26 Wright, Jaret 25 Mays, Joe 25 Penny, Brad 25 Perez, Oliver 24 Peavy, Jake 24 Williams, Woody 23 Westbrook, Jake 22 Milton, Eric 22 Padilla, Vicente 22 Park, Chan Ho 21 Appier, Kevin 21 Carpenter, Chris 21 Oswalt, Roy 21 Trachsel, Steve 20 Arroyo, Bronson 20 Reed, Rick 20 Wells, Kip 19 Davis, Doug 18 Bonderman, Jeremy 18 Sele, Aaron 17 Adams, Terry 17 Thomson, John 16 May, Darrell 16 Ponson, Sidney 14 Finley, Chuck 14 Franklin, Ryan 13 Lohse, Kyle 13 Ritchie, Todd 13 Rueter, Kirk 12 Benson, Kris 12 Drese, Ryan 12 Kile, Darryl 12 Sparks, Steve W. 12 Valdes, Ismael 11 Bere, Jason 11 Hampton, Mike 11 Johnson, Jason 11 Ortiz, Ramon 10 Eaton, Adam 10 Lackey, John 10 Ohka, Tomo 10 Rapp, Pat 10 Suppan, Jeff 9 Byrd, Paul 9 Lawrence, Brian 9 Person, Robert 9 Tomko, Brett 7 Abbott, Paul 7 Armas, Tony J. 7 Dessens, Elmer 7 Hendrickson, Mark 7 Moss, Damian 6 Tapani, Kevin 6 Willis, Dontrelle 5 Meche, Gil 5 Robertson, Nate 5 Rogers, Kenny 5 Seo, Jae Weong 4 Castillo, Frank 4 Sturtze, Tanyon 3 Anderson, Brian 3 Garland, Jon 3 Jarvis, Kevin 3 Kennedy, Joe 3 Maroth, Mike 2 Anderson, Jimmy 2 Baez, Danys 2 Lima, Jose 2 Schoeneweis, Scott 2 Zambrano, Victor 1 Ashby, Andy 1 Contreras, Jose 1 Reynolds, Shane Based on Sag's NPERA top 30 rankings. rank #1 = 31 pts, rank #30 = 1 pt. Accumulated over past 4 yrs. The list answers a lot of questions: Best starter: Schilling. Johnson had 1 bad health yr. Best off-season trade: Brave's getting Hudson Next best off-s trade: Cards getting Mulder (look at his value even w a lame yr) Mark > Maddux?: Here's where park factor comes into play. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=HRFactor Cell #3 in HR, Wrigley #18 in HR, Turner #30 in HR. Yeah it makes a difference. I would say what Mark has accomplished at the Cell over that time is worth more than what Maddux has accomplished between Turner & Wrigley. Of course there's the whole 6-9 hitter avg's 200+ OPS better as well. I think all of us would agree that Mudler performed better than Mark over that time. So that's as high as I would elevate Mark. Safeco was #16 in HR so I'm reluctant to elevate Garcia with him. Simply put Mark is at the top of the list of questionable aces over that time. Expected to be out until end of April Big reprecussions. This hurts. We lose a bat on the bench, & Hernandez becomes #2. BMac likely goes rookie at #3, followed by Garland & Contreras. Contreras has been a dissapointment in ST.

Oh crap! I wiped out the list. Maybe I'll do another time. Schilling was tops w 105 pts. Followed by Hudson, Johson mid 90 pts, & Zito 87 pts. Buerhle & Garcia were 16th, 17th on the list with 65 pts. The rest you see from the ALC. Again I'd say you need to be within 20 pts of the leader to be an ace. Zito qualifies as an ace for Oak. Mussina for the NYY. The next 20 pt range is the ACE- range. Both Mark & Freddy barely make this range.

Considering that Schilling is at top of the list with 105 pts, Sabathia with 57 pts is not an ace. He's just a top 20 pitcher over the past 4 yrs. With respect to the list I would draw the line of an ace at 85 pts. An ace- at 65 pts. A solid #1 at 45 pts. A borderline #1 at 25 pts. Anything else doesn't really matter. Santana of course is an exception having won a Cy Young. He falls in the range of a solid #1, potential ace provided he can do again.

Then again Walker has retired 17 of the first 18 hitters he's faced in AZ. 2000 63IP, vs RH .165A/601OPS, vs LH .257A/632OPS 2001 12IP, vs RH 095/507, vs LH 150/461 2002 8IP, 2003 7IP, 2004 2IP He put in a full yr with the Padres in 2000, broke camp with them in 2001. 2002 & 2003 he was a late season call-up & 2004 he broke camp with SF. I think the fact that he made the 25 man roster is meaningful. ST 2005 K Walker 0.00ERA, 6.0IP N Cotts 1.80ERA. 5.0IP I'd say Walker's earned the final pen spot. Neal's pitched fine but Walker's 2000 yr is a lot more impressive than anything Neal's accomplished at the ML level. If he's back to his 2000 form Kenny might have lucked out here.

M Buehrle 3.55ERA, 12.2IP O Hernandez 8.25ERA, 12.0IP J Garland 7.36ERA, 11.0IP B McCarthy 0.00ERA, 10.1IP J Contreras 8.30ERA, 8.2IP J Adkins 2.46ERA, 7.1IP F Garcia 6.43ERA, 7.0IP He's pitched about as much as our #3 Contreras. I don't think it's a big deal. Sure hope our starters all can get their eras in the 4's before ST ends though Split squad games I think are over so all starters should be expected to go 5 in now.

The way this list shapes up for the ALC 65 Buehrle 15 65 Garcia 16 1 Garland 115 0 Contreras 118 131 57 Sabathia 20 42 Millwood 30 22 Westbrook 59 121 41 Radke 33 29 Santana 49 24 Mays 58 12 Lohse 77 106 The best two rising performers on the list are Westbrook & Santana. Realistically they are worth more than their current point totals towards the 2005 season. But then again who knows if Milwood & Mays will perform up to theirs. As far as 4 accomplished starters (El Duque did not qualify any of these yrs) a substantial edge goes to the Twins. If Mays is healthy then he is likely to perform better than Garland & Contreras. Lohse has already proven he's better. All 3 teams have 20-30M tied up in pitching this year. It makes for a very close race. If signing Koney means we can't bump Garland or Contreras for something better I'd say it's not worth it. Sox have 2 top performers in this list, 1 question mark to even reach starter innings, & 2 bottom feeders on the list. That's not a recipe for a World Series contender.