witesoxfan

QUOTE (sircaffey @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 02:40 PM) That's a good question indeed. Though I wouldn't rule out it being better than last season. Morneau missed 81 games, and Mauer, Kubel, Span, and Cuddyer all had .100+ drops in OPS. Should be interesting to see how they perform after a year in the new stadium. Could be scary good. Some of that can be attributed to the improved pitching around the league, whatever it was that caused it. They also had Thome give them an OPS of like 1.150 in the second half of the year, which is absolutely insane. I also don't know how many moves the Twins can actually make. We as Sox fans worry that we have too much committed to too little, but the Twins are pretty much in that same exact boat. Mauer $23, Morneau $14, Nathan $11.25, Cuddyer $10.5, Kubel $5.25, Baker $5, Capps ~$4.5, Blackburn $3, Young ~$4, Liriano ~$3-3.5, Span $1, Slowey ~$1-1.5, Repko $600K, Neshek $625K...it's a total of about $87 million. That doesn't include Nishioka, whose average cost will total about $6 million (due to the posting fee paid all at once this year, plus he is probably going to get somewhere around $10-15 million over about 3 years), nor does it include the possibility of them still adding Pavano. I'm sure they'll have wiggle room up to around $105 million, but I'm not sure they can really go out and afford to make a drastic move at this point without shedding any other salary.

According to the schedule as it is set up right now, the Sox will need a 5th starter 4 times in April, and 5 times before May 11th. I'm not sure they have the option of simply giving the job to Harrell.

QUOTE (Jenks Heat @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 09:24 AM) I know nothing of Tim Beckham, I was just trying to clear up what I think his post meant. As far as the Rays are concerned, I think it was terrrible pick as a more MLB ready prospect would be producing now when they need it. Their payroll may be back down t0 $50M this season. They are not gettign the high picks any longer nad thus their farm system may take a hit. I hope it works out as I like them. Boston has proven that you don't need top picks to be successful; you simply have to be willing to spend the money to sign them, and then you have to make sure you can develop them. I have no doubts that Tampa will be fine next year, but I think they are more of an 85-90 win team as opposed to a 95-100 win team, and that's what the two teams ahead of them will be.

QUOTE (qwerty @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 09:14 AM) From 2003-2007 he played 143 games or more. Zero times was he worth 6+ wins. No higher than 4.8 actually... and as low as 3. The past two seasons he stood at 5.7 and 6.9. I realize it could be argued that he is currently in his prime and will be for another few years... but to say his true talent level is that of a 6+ win player based on his state of health alone is inaccurate. This is easily his peak year as far as i'm concerned, which is not a knock againt him, it's hard for anyone to duplicate such a season other than pujols, who seemingly could do so in his sleep. Btw, i hate the fact that he is a pansy and refuses to play center. It's pathetic. I am interested to see how playing in LF at Fenway affects his defensive statistics. My initial thought was that it was going to hurt it due to the lack of size, but now I believe the opposite will happen. There will be several balls hit in his area that will be deemed uncatchable, and he will make several other plays that he normally makes. Beyond that, I think because how short the throw is from the Monster to home plate (and then 2B and 3B), he will add a couple more assists as well. I think you add it all up and it will say that Crawford is worth 20+ RAR in LF, which will artificially inflate his value, which will still give these asshole columnists their verbal "I told you so's." I also think Crawford is going to be worth this contract, and I think he is going to become a better hitter as he ages. I still hate the deal though...way too much risk for such minimal gain.

QUOTE (Jenks Heat @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 09:07 AM) I think what he was saying was that Gordon has already played more games in the MLB than Tim ever will. To argue over who will play more is silly at this popint as it looks like Gordon will be hanging around for a while. I think suggesting that Tim Beckham won't make it because he has put up a .700 OPS in the minors is silly too. It's absolutely discouraging, but the fact of the matter is, Tim Beckham is just going to be 21 years old next year and it's not as if he's suddenly going to lose the talent that made him the #1 pick. It's going to take one mildly good year for people to jump back on his bandwagon, and with young players, it can be like turning on a light-switch...just have to figure out what he needs to do to be successful.

Matt Garza is OK. I think he is a #2-3 type starter, some guts, some "passion," if you will, but I don't think he is going to be worth what the Rays may end up trading him for, and I don't think the Sox are really concerned with adding a starting pitcher right now. I understand they have some holes in the rotation looming, but you can cross that bridge when you get there. The bullpen has holes in it right now that need to be addressed, and the offense, even with the addition and the resignings, can still use all the help and depth it can get. Let the Cubs trade the moon for him. That'd be sweet.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 04:06 AM) And it seems they offered arbitration to Orlando Hudson....so that makes Casilla the utility player, and Harris/Tolbert are/were expendable. So the Japanese player would definitely be at SS, they already paid $5.3 milllion for posting rights. Orlando Hudson declined the Twins arbitration offer. He's probably going to play somewhere else next year.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 03:54 AM) Tim Beckham? Last time I heard on him, scouts were already saying Gordon play more MLB games Tim every will. Unless Tim can make it up before 2012 and start full time, I think that's a pretty safe bet. It doesn't somehow disqualify him from being able to have a good career.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 03:44 AM) It all depends on whether they sign that Japanese player for SS/2B. Remember how big of an effect Iguchi had on the Sox in 2005/2006? Japanese players would seem to fit exactly in the Twins' system of being unselfish, fundamentally sound players who do the little things. It's a foregone conclusion that they'll sign him, it's just a matter of how much. And then at that point, it's a matter of how good he is. I also don't think Iguchi had some world-shifting effect on the 2005 White Sox, but instead they just had a good, solid 2B for the first time since Ray Durham (since I don't think you can really count Roberto Alomar...he was OK). Having seen both play quite a bit, I can say that they were pretty damn solid defensively. They also both had pretty solid seasons offensively considering the offensive environment around the league. I also don't think you can considering a .707 OPS a "force," and that was the only time that he received extended at bats that he was anywhere near average offensively. He's just not a very good player. Gonna try and answer each query with a one word answer... no, dunno, yes, OF, maybe, no, hopefully, magic, no, yep Blackburn is still awful, and Gibson is still young and raw. Slowey has to prove he can stay healthy, and Baker has to prove he's not mediocre. Duensing was great, but he's going to have to prove that he's Buehrle and not Perkins. Yes, they can throw out an adequate starting pitching staff without Pavano, but it's not intimidating any way you size it up. They have a few other s***ty arms they can throw into the rotation that'll probably give them 2 great starts before crapping out on them. Hopefully they pay him $15 million. He put up better splits than Dunn last year right? And Dunn is averaging $14 million a year. So Thome is worth $15 million to the Twins. Sign him up! In all seriousness, I really doubt that Thome gives 2 s***s about money at this point. It's simply a matter of whether or not he is going to come back and, if he is, if it will be with the Twins. After the season he had, and the fact that the Twins still won't have a lot of at bats for him going into the season (not as many as they did last year considering how questionable Young was going into the year and the fact that he's viewed as solid offensively now), I just don't know where they're going to fit him into the lineup on a regular basis.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 03:08 AM) The last thing for which the Sox need to trade is another starting pitcher. Jackson will not be a free agent at the end of this season. He only has 4.07 years of ML service time. He'll be a free agent after the 2012 season. Quentin is the best hitter we have to provide Dunn some protection, and should bat 5th. I agree that he is not a good enough defender to play RF, but then I've covered that subject pretty well in other posts. Jackson WILL be a free agent at the end of the season, as he has accumulated 5.07 years of MLB service time. That number on BR states that it is from 01/2010...that means it came from before the 2010 season, which means that you can add one additional number to it.

I love this trade from the Sox perspective. Hardy is a great defensive shortstop and he's solid offensively, while Alexi Casilla is simply not a good player in any manner, and I will always have my doubts about the defensive prowess of Japanese middle infielders. I would say that it is certainly possible that Nishioka will replicate what Hudson did last year; however, I don't believe the same can be said for Casilla and Hardy. Considering the Twins had a WAR of 5.5 in their middle infield last year (Hardy 2.4, Hudson 3.1), I would say it's likely that they'll take a 1.5 WAR hit there next year (say Casilla at 1.5, Nishioka at 2.5), and it's very possible that it could be as much as 3 (say Casilla anywhere from 0.5-1, Nishioka anywhere from 1.5-2). That's a pretty big hit they are taking in their middle infield. It's early, I know, but I think the Twins are in trouble next year. Their bullpen has as many holes, if not more, than the White Sox bullpen does, I don't think their starting pitching is nearly as good as the Sox is, and quite frankly, I don't know how good their lineup will end up being, and I don't think it will be as good as last year's lineup.

I generally do too, but I figured giving a semi-realistic one was better than proposing one for Pujols and Wainwright. It's likely that Houston wouldn't do it, or they wouldn't do it without an actual high upside arm in the deal - such as Nathan Jones or Anthony Carter - opposed to Jhonny Nunez, who seems to be more of fringe reliever than he is a high upside arm, but Brandon Lyon isn't suddenly a stud himself either. The Astros are paying more than $5 million a year for a reliever who is, at his very best, about a 1.5 WAR pitcher and is generally between 0.7-1 WAR per year. They could get some excess value in Nunez, Jones, or Carter simply by having them for 6 years while also getting some value out of Mark Teahen...he is respectable in LF and RF, so if they made the move to send Lee to 1B, he would have value in LF. Mark Teahen was really bad last year - -0.6 WAR - but most of that was due to him playing absolutely horrendous defense at 3B. He wouldn't be playing 3B in Houston, he'd either be playing in LF, or he'd be playing all over the diamond, which minimizes the inept defense simply because he doesn't play there every day. I imagine Houston would initially rather look elsewhere for a platoon mate for Jason Michaels, but, by trading Lyon for Teahen (and a relief prospect), they actually shed $500k and get a future reliever out of the whole deal too. Furthermore, it's also possible that Teahen is semi-respectable next year, which leaves open the possibility that the Dodgers would trade a future Hall of Famer for him at the deadline too.

QUOTE (bschmaranz @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:14 PM) .708 career OPS at Fenway. Because he has had to face Boston pitching throughout the entirety of his career there. Boston has had some pretty damn good pitchers while Crawford has been in the majors. I'd start naming names, but, including relievers, it's probably 20-30 names long.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:34 PM) I've thought about Broxton too, but he's due $7MM in 2011 so i don't think we can afford him unless we shed some payroll in the deal. Flowers + Quentin + Teahen for Broxton. Seems like a lot, but Teahen has negative trade value, which kind of evens things up. And then the Sox are left with no one to play RF. That's the main problem with dealing Quentin right now. I would suggest Mark Teahen (plus perhaps Jhonny Nunez) for Brandon Lyon. Teahen is due $4.75 mill this year, $5.5 mill next; Lyon is due $5.25 mill this year, $5.5 mill next year, so the salaries are essentially a wash. The Astros have considered using Lee at 1B next year, which would leave them with an opening in LF vs RHP (as Jason Michaels would play against LHP). Beyond that, Teahen would allow them a player who can play all over the diamond for them as well (in the Geoff Blum mold (who they just lost in free agency)). Lyon comes over here and simply acts as a middle reliever. The Astros make the move because they add a little bit to a rather meager offensive club plus they get a young, though perhaps not great, reliever in the deal. The Sox do it because they are short on quality relievers, they have no place in the everyday lineup for Mark Teahen, and Jhonny Nunez is not part of the long-term plans of the franchise. It also opens a spot on the 40-man, for whatever that is worth.

QUOTE (pktmotion @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 10:46 PM) Its quite a paradox ... considering how big of a fail that tattoo is. Seriously, that is awful.

QUOTE (Frank_Thomas35 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:03 PM) Unreal. This offseason would have matched the Yankees from a few years back if the AGon extension would have went through. Two 140+/7 year deals. Unreal. This will send ridiculous shock waves. Grienke to the Rays, Lee to the Yankees, Angels and Beltre? Rangers lose out big time in all this. Thank god PK was wrapped up today he would be pretty diserable, after this bomb. This will definitly send shock waves trough the American League the rest of te offseason. Off topic: the MLB NETWORK coverage of Pena to the Cuba is rodiculous, almos to the point of espn and the yank, sox, and lebron. He hit .196, well Carlis Wrigley day games say hello, also the Boo birds for all your Ks. The Gonzalez extension will go through, and may as well as this point. The Red Sox were simply waiting until the day that team payrolls were sent into the Commissioner's office for luxury tax purposes to avoid paying it, and then signing him to the extension. I think it's safe to say that Boston will go over the luxury tax.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:03 PM) I was going to reply the exact same thing, except replace Paul O'Neil with David DeJesus. That one's OK, but I think Crawford has more power than that (especially moving into Fenway). It's better saying Paul O'Neill than Roberto Clemente too, to whom B-R says Crawford compares pretty favorably.

QUOTE (chunk23 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 10:52 PM) Too much money and he's a leg injury away from turning into Juan Pierre. A leg injury would make him the OPPOSITE of Juan Pierre. He's more like a leg injury away from turning into Paul O'Neill.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 10:46 PM) Jesus. The annual pissing match between the Red Sox and Yankees is getting ridiculious. There really needs to be a cap. Where do you place it though? What is a reasonable salary cap that will affect more than 1-2 teams? I don't think you can legitimately put a cap into place because of 2 out of 30 teams. And then what do you do when you need to make upgrades, you have a rotten contract, and you are right up against the cap? Do you make the contracts in baseball non-guaranteed, like in football? Or partially-guaranteed contracts? Perhaps 50% of the rest of their contract is counted against your cap number if they are released; if the Giants were to cut Zito today, they would owe him $37.75 million (owed $75.5 mill over the next 4 years), and that would count against their cap number this season. I think a hard cap would be good to have, but it would be very, very messy simply getting the actual rules and regulations into place, and then you have to worry about it passing, because the players wouldn't be happy about having a salary cap either.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 09:08 PM) There is more than one way to skin a cat. Winning would bring the fans and make money too. I would have chosen they go with a pure baseball decision, but then again, I think I'd understand letting him go more than most. I think we can safely assume that the best case scenario is the same in both circumstances, correct? Sox win the World Series, giant orgy, the entire city of Chicago loves the Sox, yada yada. Can we assume that the worst case scenario is the same? I don't think we can. I think that the worst case scenario with PK in the fold involves a minor drop in attendance. I think the worst case scenario with Lee and Putz involved gets way uglier, because I think you see fans revolting about why the Sox didn't resign PK and seeing a huge drop in attendance. Maybe that's just my opinion, but I think they went through those 3 scenarios, and that PK grades out just ahead in both the expected and worst case scenarios, whereas in the best case they are virtually the same.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 07:50 PM) He was all over the Konerko story proving again nobody in the media has better Sox sources than he does. Hey whats up Joe, remember when AJ threw you out trying to steal, like, 10 times in a row? That was awesome.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 08:35 PM) Wite, I agree with a lot of this. However, I also think at their core, White Sox fans care most about the ballclub winning another World Series Championship. PK is one of the most beloved, if not the most beloved White Sox player of this generation. But I think even the most sentimental fan would rather win a World Series Championship without PK than not win one with PK. And that should have been the ultimate goal - doing everything possible to win another WS Championship - rather than trying to win another WS Championship with Paul Konerko, which is apparently what is taking place. I'm just not sure that we have a margin for error here. I think that, the fact of the matter is, the White Sox themselves care about two things - winning a championship and making money. I have to believe that they they did their homework and that they believe that, not only does having Paul Konerko give them as much if not a greater chance to win a World Series than signing Derrek Lee (or any other realistic options), but that he is also going to make them more money as well. There are people who will come to the park to specifically see Paul Konerko play - I don't think there is any question of that. Would there be as many people, or even half as many people, who would come to the park to see Derrek Lee and JJ Putz play? I think anybody who would say that this is purely a baseball move - whether a random fan or Jerry Reinsdorf himself - is being naive or misleading. There is more at stake here than simply improving the club. The Sox surely could have brought in Lee and Putz, but at what ultimate cost? By changing the face of the franchise, you are devaluing the brand itself; by keeping the face of the franchise, that value retains itself or increases. There is absolutely an ulterior aspect to this move because, quite frankly, Paul Konerko is Chicago White Sox baseball.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 07:32 PM) This is exactly how I see it as well; Pierre should not be starting on this team. Pierre doesn't seem like a KW-type player so I wouldn't be surprised to see something happen there. He's just too weak. If he stays I think he should bat 9th so he's the leadoff hitter 3 times per game instead of 4. I think Pierre is exactly a Williams player. He fits everything Williams has ever really looked for in a leadoff hitter - hits for a good enough average, can take a pitch and walk a little bit, and steals a lot of bases. The fact that he doesn't hit for a lot of power or that he does play good defense are generally irrelevant.

got a lot of them updated. I may have missed some, and didn't get to the relievers, but it's more up to date than normal. I also bolded Dunn and Konerko, rather than crossing them out, cuz I can can can.