caulfield12

In the end, the volatility of paying top FA dollars to pitching has to move the pendulum over to the $300+ million deals going to position players. Even Wheeler, a "$70-80 million value," has been conjectured to be flying well into the low $100's because of supply and demand issues. You simply HAVE TO develop your own pitchers internally, unless you're one of the Top 3-5 payroll teams and can go out like the Cubs did and preemptively strike for a Lester. We did the same thing in 2004 for Contreras and Garcia, not knowing how good Jose was going to turn out for the last two months of 2005 and first two months of 2006. Kopech and/or Cease need to reach TOR status, to go along with Giolito and Lopez....at least 3 of those guys, at a minimum.. Look what happened with Rodon, Fulmer, Alec Hansen, for example, Spencer Adams, almost every Round 1-3 pick in the pitching area over the last half-decade. (Hopefully Stiever/Thompson can make the leap.) Or go back to 1998-2001 and look at how many of those top pitching prospects (in the #1-ranked BA group) actually turned out to have good/successful careers...Buehrle, Garland, Wells and Fogg with the Pirates, that was pretty much it out of a pitching depth chart of prospects that went TEN deep.

Interestingly, Puig, Avi, EE and Gardner are all ranked as having approximately the same amount of value on the FA market. Take it for what it's worth.

You're going to move Eloy to DH or play him in RF? Usually, trading for more expensive players and sacrificing some of our better/best prospects hasn't worked out well in the past...and it invariably leads to payroll issues. In reality, they should let Benintendi try to recover some of his value and move Betts and attempt to compete on the fly by acquiring a (relative) haul for Betts (although that return will be depressed by the one year nature of the move.)

Obviously... cumulatively, across those three players. 5~6 legitimately interested parties per player. Wheeler could easily be 6-8 alone, if not higher. Or you disagree?

The #4, #8 and #12 free agents on the market? Competing against at least 15-18 teams, overall? One would like to believe it’s possible, but Grandal goes elsewhere and we get our 4th-6th preferred pitcher is the likeliest possible scenario if they sign Castellanos at anything approaching $60-75 million.

Wishes he had $100 for every time he’s heard the same comment over the last three decades about potential hitters at GRF/US Cellular.

Roark and Gibson are looking like the most expensive out of that group at the moment, Pomeranz would be another swing guy. Pineda, if you don’t mind his background.

Jon Greenberg of ESPN a decade ago put it close to 50/50 in the city and attributed the attendance differences to Wrigley, Iowa grandmothers on bus tours, NW Indiana, downstate until you hit Cardinals’ territory, WGN broadcasts for decades, Harry Caray...basically the huge numbers of regional Cubs’ fans outside the metropolitan area proper. Farm teams in Des Moines, Peoria, South Bend, etc.

Fangraphs...you can enter player’s name, then go to season stats and click on advanced.

That’s dumb to MAYBE save $6ish million (over two years) when the odds are pretty darned high you wouldn’t want to be paying a 34 year old DH another $15 million in 2021. It seems we’re more concerned with keeping guys like Konerko and Abreu happy than anything else. It’s bizarre. What non-competitive teams are doing something similar? The M’s with Ichiro give him that kind of treatment at this stage of his career, even. Or the Sox with Buerhle.

But what if Cole gets injured...never returns to normal but only gets an insurance subsidy of about 40-60% against one season that he misses with TJ surgery. Thinking something like a Matt Cain second half career here. Its fine if there was a near guarantee (like Betts) that he was going to put up 6 fWAR in 2020-21-22-23-24. How not to be skittish when contracts like Danks and Adam Dunn practically sunk the franchise without being over $68.5 million? This deal is going to be something like FOUR times that size.

Hopefully not an “A cute EE”...either.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-best-baseball-MLB-free-agents-2019-2020-14810780.php#photo-18415774 Astros’ writer has Wheeler at 4, projecting he’s their 1A target after Cole...spin rate, analytics, a bit underperforming, perfect material for that organization to mold, 4 years, $80 million 5.Bumgarner 6.Ryu 7.Grandal 8.Keuchel 9.Odorizzi 10.Donaldson 11-20 Ozuna, Castellanos, Hamels, Will Smith, Moose, Didi, Will Harris, Pomeranz (nobody has mentioned), D. Hudson, Betances 21-30 Abreu, Pineda, Roark, Gibson, Kendrick, Chirinos, d’Arnaud, Castro, Teheran, Puig 31-33 Avi, EE, Gardner No Alex Wood, Rich Hill or Dickerson. Twins could lose three pitchers from this list, in addition to Martin Perez.

Betts will be JUST 28 at the beginning of the 2021 season. That said, it's going to take a helluva lot going wrong in 2020 to make JR so desperate he's willing to roll the dice on a mega-contract like Betts to "save the rebuild." If they're not moving forwards from this point...they're going in a reverse or neutral direction, and that's just not good enough when everything simply HAS to be targeting competing in the second half of 2020 (if they're arguably close enough at the Trade Deadline) or certainly no later than Opening Day, 2021. Signing Betts means you pretty much have to forget about keeping Giolito, Moncada and Robert, because you already have Jimenez on the books long-term as well. If we remove his 10.4 season....just for "downside" analysis, and look at his other four most recent seasons and average them out, it gives you a 6.25 fWAR. Let's just call it 6. Obviously, trading for him this season makes ZERO sense without an extension in mind, and that's just not going to happen unless a White Sox family member is connected by marriage to the Betts family (see Ozzie/F.Garcia.) Is a $35-40 million per year contract realistically going to fit on any White Sox payroll of the future without inexorably leading to another version of "stars and scrubs Sox" like 2013-2016? Does it even work at a $165-170 million payroll???

As much as I like(D) Puig in his first two years, he's not getting anything more than 3/$40-45ish, something like the Melky Cabrera deal. He's pretty consistently been worth around 1.5-2ish fWAR in recent years. Zero interest in overpaying Bumgarner with more than $100 million for his decline years without first doing everything possible to get Wheeler. And probably Odorizzi for roughly half the price of Bumgarner, leaving that other $55 million in the tank for other needed acquisitions. Finally, Bumgarner seems like an NL-first guy, he loves hitting and supposedly enjoys life out on the West Coast, so it's pretty difficult to imagine him coming to Chicago, not to mention the culture-clash/chemistry issues in the clubhouse that would be brought to the fore.

Sure, if we can get Moncada, Giolito, Robert...to sign extensions into FA, like Kershaw...or the likes of Bellinger, Seager and Buehler are going to be aiming for.

Generally, the White Sox should be maximizing their window through 1-4 year players...supplementing with FA. Signing Abreu to a multiyear deal with Vaughn waiting in the wings...there better be an agreement for him to move to DH full-time in 2021. Being wrong on their evaluation of Vaughn OR having a DH hitting the skids due to a predictable aging decline in 2021 would be...well, let’s just wait and see what Hahn says if they do go 2-3 years. I would think they would prioritize winning in 2021 over satisfying their desire to “honor/appreciate” Jose Abreu’s contributions. If not, they’re not in the business of winning championships.

Except they’re going to be paying 50-65% more than he’s worth by fWAR. Which cuts another $6 million out of the budget for 2020, somewhere...

At what position? They have Polanco at SS, Sano at 3B, Arraez/Adrianza, Marwin Gonzalez all over the field and Cron. Not seeing the need. The Twins have to replace Odorizzi, Gibson, M.Perez and Pineda. And shore up their bullpen.

Are the Yankees? They didn’t give him a QO, but we’re giving Abreu one who is worth roughly 30-35% by your 4.4 projection. If he’s going to put up those numbers, he’s a $30-35 million dollar player...at the very least, in the mid $20’s. And yet the Yankees aren’t seeing that value so clearly. Are they really going to play Torres at SS, LeMahieu at 2B and Andujar/Urshela on the left side? That would be a terrible alignment with Torres and Andujar on the field at the same time. https://unhingedyankees.com/2019/08/09/a-way-too-early-2020-yankees-roster-prediction/ 1B: Luke Voit 2B: Gleyber Torres SS: Didi Gregorius 3B: DJ LeMahieu Reserve: Gio Urshela There are a couple of question marks for the Yankees infield heading into 2020. The biggest question will be will they re-sign Didi Gregorius. I believe the answer will be yes. Gregorius has been a catalyst in helping the Yankees rebound from a handful of down years into becoming a perennial contender. His production both at the plate and in the field is irreplaceable, and it’s doubtful they will let that walk out the door.

Why would he get anything guaranteed above $9-10 million coming off the season he just had? To play 3B, SS or 2B everyday? If the Yankees are out, and that’s a very good possibility...who’s going to pay him that much? He was worth 0.9 for fWAR, Yolmer was worth 1.0. Why even bother with advanced metrics...if Yolmer’s numbers are just worth 28.6% of Gregorious’?

E-scooter or segue?

It's not like Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. was listed, either. Lowe's mostly there because the Rays were a playoff team, although that shouldn't be the MAIN factor IMO...although nobody, even in Baltimore, cares much about Means (maybe hardcore fantasy players.)

Ryu is going to be too expensive for that pitching second addition. Odorizzi is bordering on it, if you're also adding Wheeler AND Grandal. Based on his bWAR/fWAR numbers, the D-Backs are going to ask for a king's ransom on Marte. He's the ultimate "sell high" candidate on the trade market, IMO. Pederson's more likely, just because of the one year remaining...but the Dodgers need him as well unless they're 100% sure they can rely on Pollock and Verdugo for a full season (jury's still out.)

Gregorious is turning 30 before next season and would be fine hitting against RHP, to the tune of an 818 OPS from 2016-2018. Would you rather have Didi or Yolmer Sanchez? I'm assuming that if we don't get Grandal, then we're REALLY going to be scrambling to find some half-way competent hitters. He's not a full-time DH (certainly not against LHP), but he's an experienced player and would provide veteran leadership, as well as the ability to play every position on the infield and also DH. The question would be whether he would be willing to accept a part-time role? IMO, having another really solid player on the roster always have a way of working itself out...you can't have TOO MANY good players, right? Considering his injuries, he would be one of the better "buy low" candidates on the market, IMO...similar to a Dickerson, although a bit more expensive due to his Yankees' pedigree.