caulfield12

It also goes to show how fragile or delicate this whole rebuild was...because at the end of 2017, almost everyone in the media or message boards was predicting 2019 they would be at the very least, competitive, and should be able to make their first run at the Indians. All it took was one significant injury to Kopech. And only one of Giolito/Lopez/Dunning making it as a reliable member of the rotation.

Unless you argue that the money spent on Nova, Jay, Santana, Herrera and Alonso (more or less $27.5 million) could have been added into the pot to convince Machado to sign with the Sox. None of those moves created positive value for the Sox...and so just represent money needlessly burned. There are five obviously better ways they could have allocated $25-30 million. And if JR was never going over $250-275 million on Machado or Harper, Hahn completely misread the market...it just took one team to throw a wrench into that plan. Not to mention those two contracts started the avalanche of extensions being signed which cut future free agent classes down by 50% or more in terms of potential targets off the board already. Going back, if they spent that $27.5 million on Latin American pitchers in Robert’s international class, it’s likely this current pitching crisis could have been avoided. The Padres got 4 of their Top 15 prospects (almost all pitching) by doing exactly this...

There’s no way he is traded to the Sox. That’s double jeopardy for Epstein. Two, comparing the values of Nova and Q is a pointless exercise. Pitt needed to cut payroll, and did so moving Harrison, McCutcheon, Cole, etc. Cubs desperately need to solidify their rotation, especially if Hamels or Lester go down. Hendricks is already on the DL.

If the Indians make the playoffs, it’s partially because they ditched Alonso and Encarnacion and brought back Carlos Santana...without the help of the White Sox, M’s and Phillies, they would already to be out of the wild card race. Let’s not forget they are only behind Texas in the wild card race, and this Rangers’ team will likely wilt in July/August. They’ve also survived injuries and Jose Ramirez looking like Yolmer...and they can beat up the White Sox, Royals and Tigers down the stretch.

Pretty much coincides with that run from 2000-2012 or you can extend it all the way out to 1990-2012.

The problem is that Moncada has never been (for whatever reason) projected or billed by Hahn as one of those players you can move around everyday. I can just imagine the prolonged outcry if he had a slew of errors while attempting that (daily position changes) or his offense fell off to 2018 levels. It was posed as the kind of thing he needed a full offseason to prepare for mentally. (It should also be noted that the Sox moved Semien around constantly in the minors, only for him to become the third-ranked defensive SS playing there almost exclusively in 2018.) We’d also start hearing about Beckham and Viciedo all over again. If they wanted a jack of all trades, they could have simply signed Marwin Gonzalez.... Most importantly, Madrigal has more potential value to the White Sox than any other organization...arguably, which is why he won’t/can’t/shouldn’t be traded. And trading the much more valuable Moncada to open up the 3B position for a $200 million Rendon...likewise doesn’t make much sense.

Then we wouldn’t have a second baseman for the future. Moving Moncada back at this point would be nuts...but classic White Sox. And that’s still not enough for anything more than a #3/4 starter.

Suggested Titles of the Book How James McCann, the most criticized under-the-radar acquisition in SoxTalk History, Luis Robert and a perfect storm of injuries saved my job (at least temporarily)...or How I became the first MLB GM to use the phrase “unprecedented financial flexibility” 100 times without getting called out for not actually utilizing it. Or How I became the very first GM with a Michigan/Northwestern/Harvard education never to have a winning team.

I should have simply written our pitching situation just sucks, and Hahn has only made it worse...if that was even possible. No details, analysis or critical thinking even required. I’ll rewrite it. Alonso move was dumb. Nova, Herrera and Santana typical “value hunting” that almost always backfires (exception once, McCann). Our minor league pitching depth for an organization just two years ago that was almost universally ranked #1 or #2 is pathetic.

Didn’t Hahn refer to himself as a “dumbass” or “jackass” already on that front? Even killing the Cubs on the Q deal, seeing a player with the five tools at SS to do everything on a diamond compared to Jimenez’s two tools can be painful. About the only thing Hahn has done to hurt SD is make it even easier for Tatis to ask for $125-150 million to extend his contract through Year 7, since they already lost one year of control putting him on the OD roster.

I’m just as worried about those three key reliever injuries....because Burdi, Burr and Hamilton were supposed to be the core of the next contending pen. And wasn’t Kade McClure yet another in that next group with Tyler Johnson who also went down with an major injury in the last year or so? Right now, we’ve gotten no or more or less negative net value from Hawkins, Rodon (moreso his value or lack thereof currently), Fulmer, Burdi, Burger and Collins if you add them all up together. That’s not the greatest track record, and almost impossible for mid-market teams to overcome.

Well, that’s true anytime you add a platoon DH who’s going to struggle to put up an 800 ops. There’s no real reason without Machado you couldn’t have gone with Palka and Guyer as your platoon or Palka and Davidson and saved that money for international or analytics/evaluation or coaching/instruction. Nova, likewise, is sort of...protecting what, us from having to use Dylan Cease? Not really. With so many injuries and Santana long gone, Covey out, Fulmer close to out of the organization...that money still is pretty much wasted, and that doesn’t even account for the disaster that is Herrera in the pen, and holding onto Nate Jones too long. It’s going to pretty pathetic when the results of Covey/Despaigne/Banuelos/Detwiler are perfectly indistinguishable from Lopez/Santana/Nova.

Let’s refresh a bit on numbers that return to same level of success or better after one TJS, about 80-85%. For multiple, it’s one magnitude lower, in the 60-65% success range.

Except for his second half falloff in 2018...pretty much the same thing that happened with Dunn in 2010 at a similar age (then compounded with the appendicitis early that following year when The NY Times was regularly covering his “shocking” decline.)

Madrigal never had great success in the minor leagues and even in Winston-Salem this year...at least until his final 2-3 weeks there. The contact and defense were there, just not the xb power and pull capacity. Robert, you can at least make an argument for a September recall...but I’m still not buying that they will do this until the April/May cutoff for a year of player control in 2020. With the odds of signing Moncada and Robert to team-friendly extension because of how much money they’ve already received, you just can’t risk it. All that said, if someone guaranteed Cole and one more solid starter in the rotation for 2020, pushing up Robert this year would at least be a reasonable or defensible position. Another reason would be them having the opportunity to make the postseason with Birmingham, but that might not be in the cards. It’s not like a Madrigal hasn’t been around winning/success or proving doubters wrong his entire life. But he still needs to go through an extended slump in Birmingham and come out the other side...at the very least. With Cease and all the injury problems including his own history, would be much more inclined to give him an opportunity at the big league level sooner rather than later, but he’ll take his lumps for sure until his secondary pitches become more reliable. Bottom line, we’re buried because of pitching woes and still need to be a bit patient with Robert and Nick.

https://sports.yahoo.com/more-tough-injury-news-former-234956998.html

8 errors now through though 47 games. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=19709&position=SS Had his 11th homer and a double last night so OPS back over 1.000 through what amounts to 1/3rd of a season. Positive net fwar on defense, should be at 2.4 overall when updated. I would guess on a prorated or per game basis he would also be first in defensive runs saved per game played. If you look at minor league numbers, he has always been 340-370 for BABIP, but it at 430 right now. If you adjust that down, his OPS probably ends up much closer to 900 and a batting average in the 275-285 range. That would still end up as close to a 7 fWAR player without missing five weeks, but this is his second consecutive year with a major injury. http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/35983/fernando-tatis-jr 26 strikeouts in his last 20 games, so nearing the dreaded 30% there...but also 12 xbh, including five homers. He’s not going to get 40/40 in homers and stolen bases, but 25/25 or 30/30 is a definite possibility.

Thad Bodley the message board poster?

We can trade for that ace with what pieces? If we trade Abreu, Colome, McCann, Leury, it would be for minor leaguers in a trade with a contender. Otherwise, it’s that same list of pitchers like Stroman, Freeland, Foltynewitz, J.Gray, Archer...that are all going to cost significant minor league pieces we don’t happen to have with Collins arguably being our most expendable chip if they can get McCann to sign an attractive extension.

Sano was in a 3/29 slump before that at bat. Next batter gets hit in his first mlb plate appearance. Don’t get to keep the ball, it seems. Took Leury’s hit away...eventually, Jimenez will probably get another error as well.

Bob Rosenberg just got a raise from Reinsdorf...

So it should be noted that Tatis has already missed big chunks of the last two seasons with major wrist and hamstring (5 weeks) injuries...and he’s so big, that he’s going to hit even more frequently for showboating and because they’re pitching him inside more to keep him from getting extended out over the plate.

Kopech needs to be a TOR starter as well...Burger, it would be a pleasant surprise at this point if he even equaled Matt Davidson’s career numbers. A lot are skeptical that he’ll even make it to Chicago. McCann is under control through next year and is a strong candidate for extension compared to Moncada and Robert, whose families are both already set for life. Finally, one could argue López needs to be a #5 or high leverage reliever...or they’re going to need to spend even more $$$ in free agency. Or Dunning needs to take his place.

Shane Victorino (3 years, $39 million) Ryan Dempster (2 years, 26.5 million) Jonny Gomes (2 years, $10 million) David Ross (2 years, $6.2 million) Stephen Drew (1 year, $9.5 million) Mike Napoli (1 year, $5 million) Koji Uehara (1 year, $4.5 million) The 2013 Red Sox are a great recent example....committing to $100 million roughly of total veteran FA contracts and getting a really significant bang for their buck in terms of production. It is widely considered one of the most important factors in their World Series title that year. Of course, the GM largely responsible for this group, Ben Cherington, still eventually lost his job.