caulfield12

6.648 million UNE claims Converting into a percentage, that’s roughly 10.5% right now. Rise of 7% in less than one month. Seems 15% bottom is going to end up on the conservative side.

Gov. Cuomo just pushed the timeline for apex or peak to the end of April, with deaths extending in a straight line in June/July/August. First time the possibility of no baseball this season really hit home.

Here’s the answer, take it as you will. 10,000—40,000, the facts around the world on the ground are no different, except for a higher mortality rate than originally projected (3-4% is where we sat here for about two months.) https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3078120/china-rejects-claims-inaccurate-coronavirus-death-tally-wuhan https://www.newsweek.com/georgia-governor-didnt-know-asymptomatic-people-transmit-coronavirus-1495695 A stunning admission of deadly ignorance from Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who says he only just learned that asymptomatic people can transmit #Covid19. “ndividuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt bad, but we didn’t know that until the last 24 hours.” pic.twitter.com/T7NZWk2GDR — Andisheh Nouraee (@andishehnouraee) April 2, 2020 In a bizarre turn of events, information the rest of the nation had in January didn’t reach Georgia Governor Brian Kemp until April: “Individuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt bad, but we didn’t know that until the last 24 hours. https://t.co/v1nGdzTy5y

16 min ago Only some medical supplies from overseas going directly to coronavirus hotspots From CNN's Leyla Santiago, Priscilla Alvarez and Kristen Holmes Only a portion of the medical supplies being flown in by the Federal Emergency Management Agency from overseas are being allotted to critical hotspots -- the rest are going onto the private market. Competition between states and the federal government has been a source of frustration for governors trying to shore up equipment to treat patients with coronavirus, according to multiple officials. The Trump administration has touted the incoming flights, billing them and the equipment they're bringing in as a reprieve to states desperate for supplies. But states are not the sole recipients of the equipment, according to a FEMA spokesperson. Supplies will also be sent to the private market, where states have been in fierce competition with each other to get hold of hard-to-come-by supplies. https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/austin-spring-breakers-coronavirus-trnd/index.html About 70 people in their 20s chartered a plane from Austin, Texas, to Mexico for spring break two weeks ago. They went against the advice of White House officials who asked that people avoid gathering in groups of more than 10 and nonessential air travel. Now 44 of those people have tested positive for coronavirus -- all of them University of Texas at Austin students, a university spokesman told CNN on Wednesday. Finally, if Covid-19 overtakes the Dharavi and Kibera slums in Mumbai...well, it’s like those supposedly watertight compartments on the Titanic.

Here’s the problem. Robert O’Brien (fourth National Security Advisor now) isn’t even qualified for his position. He, Pompeo, Navarro...are out there blasting China on conservative media outlets. Fine. But what happens when he’s part of a briefing with the President? He quickly remembers how Trump keeps circling back to the trade agreement, tariffs rolling billions in, President Xi and I had a great call, Heartland is being saved by agricultural purchases (that still haven’t come close to replacing lost markets). Poof. Dude (O’Brien) then says absolutely nothing at all about China in the briefing. Can someone in the administration be consistent, for once? Last week or so, it was Wuhan and China/Chinese virus every other sentence. Then he’s suddenly coming to the aid of stigmatized Asian communities (“lots of great people, I know many personally...great deal makers”) and protecting them from racist attacks he practically cheered on himself. The whiplash back and forth is just incredible. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/coronavirus-biden-and-other-democrats-blast-trumps-health-care-rejection-212619771.html Then he’s somehow saving many millions more by....drumroll, cutting off healthcare enrollment/participation. The Trump administration’s decision to not open a special enrollment period for the health care marketplace because of the coronavirus pandemic has garnered strong criticism from the Democratic Party. A White House official told POLITICO that the Trump administration would be foregoing an SEP, and instead “exploring other options.”

Trump’s new coronavirus argument: 2 million people are being saved Even as Trump adopts a somber, get-ready-for-the-worst tone, he has still sought to portray himself as a hero for his actions thus far. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/01/trump-coronavirus-millions-saved-160814

Shouldn’t they fire Dr. Redfield, then? Or Azar? NIH is a completely different entity...and Fauci cannot be connected in any way, shape or form to the rejection of WHO kits in Jan/Feb, decision to manufacture in the US and the debacle than ensued with those initial kits that set the timetable back by two weeks at such a critical time. Dr. Fauci and Cuomo are pretty much doubling his approval numbers. If he does push Dr. Fauci, a 78 year old by the way, out...and leaves Dr. Birx as the only competent face remaining in a country of the best and brightest scientific minds in the world, God help us all. She’s just not capable of separating herself politically from the administration, and this has been evident from the very beginning. If anything, he popped the bubble on overly optimistic projections, on weather cures, on untested drugs providing quick solutions, on the country going back to business in early April and then Easter weekend. He got the nickname Dr. Doom, but now many are managing to outpace his perceived negativity (the projection model with 82 or 84,000 total deaths was the one he most frequently cited.) Now, that’s considered WAY too optimistic compared to that 100-240k range, not to mention many are citing the 12-18 month timeframe as WAY too optimistic on a vaccine as well.

It’s not unlike the New Testament...many refuse to believe until they see or experience firsthand proof or evidence in their own families. The Doubting Thomas Effect, which was multiplied by the skepticism echoed/reinforced by both the President and the conservative media. I think a large part of this was coming right on the heels of the impeachment debacle...so it SEEMED in line with yet another conspiracy or hoax. In that sense, the Democrats also bear SOME responsibility for entering that process with no viable end game...which soaked up months of Congressional focus. Of course, the other obvious side of this is that empathy, compassion and non-transactional leadership are exactly what is called for to unify the country. As long as these briefings remain so politicized that networks are debating whether to carry them as they devolve consistently into partisan talking points from politicians...the country will continue to be divided or polarized. On the state and local levels, governors can evoke that sense of we're all in this together as Governor Cuomo has consistently done for weeks now...or DeWine, or Hogan, or Baker. On a national basis, though...we’re suddenly (at least for today) fixated on controlling the border with Mexico. It’s like an alternate reality t.v. show created to distract from reality and intentionally shift the focus back to campaign issues. “Warmer weather will slow or kill the virus.” That’s not a national suppression/mitigation strategy!

With the cloud over Chinese, US, Russia, Indonesia, Iran, India and Malaysian numbers...maybe even Japan protecting the Olympics, we still don’t really know as much as we need to. The most dangerous aspect of this is 33% of those testing positive being asymptomatic carriers or super spreaders. Btw, National stockpile of PPE wiped out today. We’re starting off press conferences worried about illegal drug interdiction moreso than PPE and ventilators? Sigh...interestingly, the hospitals are running low on Fentanyl supplies for intubation. And Maduro in Venezuela is now Public Enemy #1 because we’re still trying to do regime change. Fine. Just seems like we need to have our priorities straight.

Mortality rate for the entire world running at close to 5%, or roughly 1/2 of SARs with magnitudes greater transmissibility. That’s about 3x higher than the earliest anticipatory US projections in January and February. Or 50x the rate of the common flu. Even with under-testing or denied testing, arguably 20-30x more deadly. And we have a backlog of 160,000 tests currently waiting to be processed just at Quest Diagnostics alone. Ten day delays, 1/2 of total order backlogged. Same exact issues with LabCorp. That particular only handle 30,000 per day, max. 100,000 is our current daily NATIONAL capacity...and these next two months we’re going to need to be processing 5-10x that on a daily basis.

In fact, they just announced high school seniors can’t return any earlier than 5/11, Grade 10/11 no earlier than 5/18...kindergarten completely gone from January until August/September. They’re not even letting workers turn on individual heating and air conditioning units (attached to wall or standing)...for an indeterminate future for fear of a recurrence in public buildings. Centralized heating and air con is rare. Everyone outside is mandated to wear a mask even four months after this whole thing really took off. And the Gao Kao, Chinese version of the SAT, in an unprecedented move, has been moved back one full month to July 7/8, perhaps the hottest time of the year here (Beijing and Hubei Province are setting their own timelines for the first time ever, as well.)

Italy and Spain? Germany hit this hard with surveillance testing right from the start...considering they had some of the first cases in Europe, like WA and CA in the US. Having the optimal ratio of dedicated nursing care to patients has been yet another positive factor in their success, at least so far.

Would you give this drug/these drugs to ill family members based on a single French study of under 100 patients with no proper control group? And we’re missing a very important aggregate number indeed: a control group. How would a comparable group of patients have performed in these RNA tests for contagiousness under another standard of care? Even with or without azithromycin, if you can’t stand the thought of not giving them hydroxychloroquine? We don’t know. Without matched controls, and without being able to look at individual patient data, we just don’t know how good this treatment was or frankly if it was any good at all. We may be seeing a notable effect size in what is still a small trial, or we may be seeing something that’s not that remarkable or the result of a poorly controlled protocol. We don’t know. I understand the need for speed, and I’m glad that the Marseilles group is conducting studies and releasing them as preprints. But this work does not help us anywhere as much as it should. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/29/more-on-cloroquine-azithromycin-and-on-dr-raoult

Speaking of... https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-truthers-question-death-toll-hospitalization-rate-212633252.html “GO INTO THE STREETS FOLKS. Visit bars, restaurants, shopping malls, CHURCHES and demand that your schools re-open. NOW! If government doesn’t stop this foolishness...STAY IN THE STREETS. END GOVERNEMNT CONTROL OVER OUR LIVES. IF NOT NOW, WHEN? THIS IS AN EXPLOITATION OF A CRISIS,” wrote former Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke, who was floated as a possible candidate for a Trump administration post at the Department of Homeland Security, in a now-deleted tweet. “People should ask themselves whether this coronavirus ‘pandemic’ could be a big hoax, with the actual danger of the disease massively exaggerated by those who seek to profit — financially or politically — from the ensuing panic,” former Rep. Ron Paul wrote on his website. A week later, Paul’s son Rand, the senator from Kentucky, tested positive for the virus. Diamond & Silk ticket 2024

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/business/one-block-small-businesses-los-angeles/index.html Excellent story about one block of small businesses with mostly female entrepreneurs struggling to stay afloat in East LA....seems like it must be near Eagle Rock/Pasadena/Occidental.

Nobody is “praising” China these days except the WHO!!! Pretty much everyone has noted draconian measures taken here are simply not feasible in democratic countries. By noting Chinese who were ill or asymptomatic were separated from their families, it’s not praise but sound medical practice that should have been emulated more carefully by Italy. They (the press) are mostly praising Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan...and Germany, more recently. The Imperial College researchers estimate that in Italy 38,000 deaths have been averted (as of March 31 that is nearly four times the number of deaths recorded); and in Spain 16,000 – compared to a situation in which restrictions had not been introduced. In Italy’s case, they say, “despite mounting pressure on health systems, interventions have averted a health care catastrophe.” The researchers caution against relaxing restrictions, saying that “many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels.” www.cnn.com Fwiw, Spain and Italy at roughly 21,500 deaths combined as of this moment.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/hannity-touts-unverified-coronavirus-treatment-from-ny-family-doctor-who-posted-unsubstantiated-and-irresponsible-facebook-video-about-outbreak/ Same NY doctor, or a different one? Or in Florida, Mar-A-Lago?

New conspiracy theory of the day: Italian authorities are counting EVERY death that's happening in the country as COVID-19 because that will put it in a better position to receive sympathy/international aid/assistance...as well as protecting the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) economies from economic devastation (insurance settlements?) and also position the southern European economies to have a better negotiating position vis a vis Germany/Austria/Netherlands over the issuing of Corona bonds backed by those three economically-sound countries of the EU.

Why not just have the Blue Jays start on the road for two weeks (or the first 7-10)...but that would require lots of changes in the scheduling, undoubtedly. Would have to look at the actual schedule for June to check the feasibility, their might be a natural flow in the schedule to jump on if they can relax the rules for 3 months from now by a week or so. Getting baseball back would be huge for the national psyche. When you look at football, that depends on so much close physical contact and derives more revenue from a limited number of packed home games, MLB is easier to get going without the fans IMO.

Well, I’m making a conscious effort to discuss it more ‘tactics-wise’ as opposed to entrenched policy standpoints or positions that are highly unlikely to change, but even C-Span gets bombarded with calls saying one side or the other is receiving more time or not getting cut off by moderators, etc. I guess if everyone accuses you of unfairness...you must be doing something right. But it is surreal when Cuomo is at 87% approval, that’s GW Bush after 9/11 numbers...or his father after the first Gulf War. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries This is the fastest way to track by countries...we’ve passed China and France for third, but running a much lower mortality rate (so far, knock on wood) compared to Italy and Spain who are off the charts or simply overwhelmed/under-testing at this point. https://kvia.com/health/2020/03/31/umc-reinstates-doctor-who-had-job-threatened-for-wearing-mask-in-hospital-hallways/ I can pretty much guarantee most of the rest of the world is not FIRING doctors and nurses for wearing masks WALKING down the HALLWAYS of a HOSPITAL in order to protect themselves/patients/family at home.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/insane-many-scientists-lament-trump-s-embrace-risky-malaria-drugs-coronavirus And many are critical of the small French clinical study of just 42 patients that seems to have touched off most of the excitement. ..... Others are less diplomatic. Darren Dahly, a co-author of one of several critiques of the initial study and a principal statistician at the University College Cork School of Public Health, said it would be “egregious” to recommend treatments for millions of people based on such a small trial, regardless of its quality. “This is insane!” tweeted Gaetan Burgio, an Australian National University expert on drug resistance, noting what he sees as lapses in the 6-day trial, including inconsistent testing of virus levels in the patients. ..... In that trial, the Mediterranean Infection University Hospital Institute (IHU) treated 26 COVID-19 patients with hydroxychloroquine alone, or combined with the antibiotic azithromycin. The authors reported “clearance”—no virus present in samples taken by nasopharyngeal swabs—in most of them, but continued infection in most of a 16-person control group of COVID-19 patients. ... “Efforts to widely distribute unproven treatments are misguided at best and dangerous at worst.” https://www.drugs.com/availability/generic-plaquenil.html Would love to see if any members of Congress or the administration purchased stock in any of these companies before the public hyping announcements started....

Such as not wanting to take any responsibility for cruise ships...as, well, “bad numbers.” If we are the greatest country in the world, we should have additional capacity to deal with this, compared to developing countries all around the world.

Relitigating Wounded Knee or Japanese displacement camps or drone strikes and endless wars across the Middle East doesn’t solve the problem TODAY. Nor does worrying about or blaming China, at the moment. Plenty of time for the entire world to assess this a year from now. Argue about it in September or October, before the election. Right now, saving the most lives, red and blue and purple...are all that matters.

Anticipating 4.25-4.75 million additional UNE claims. That means in two weeks we’re jumping to something like a 8.5-9.25% unemployment rate. 1.5 million claims roughly equivalent to a 1% point shift upwards. Goldman most recently projected peak at 15%, but high teens or low twenties still feels quite possible depending on hiw the next month plays out. The labor force available for employment is going to be cut some due to deaths/attrition/people dropping out...but those are still massive numbers. Seems the president is convinced we can just keep borrowing at 0% interest and get another $2-3 million for infrastructure projects. We shall see if his own party in Congress will go along with that one. https://www.businessinsider.com/ken-griffin-real-estate-nyc-apartment-record-chicago-london-miami-2019-1 Maybe we can convince Ken Griffin to buy the White Sox...does he like sports at all?

Some would argue that without the one child policy, the population of China would be 2-2.4 billion, on the conservative side. Which means higher scarcity of resources, more pollution, more world starvation, etc. The reality is that having six boys for every five girls creates an entirely new set of problems. Even lifting the restrictions a few years ago, the birth rate is barely moving up due to the skyrocketing costs of raising a child, health care, education, etc. 25-30 years from now, China will look exactly like Japan demographically...heck, the economic peaks of late 80’s/early 90’s (Japan) compared to 2006-2014 might look quite similar years from now. Japan, South Korea and now China are all looking at birth rates of 0.8-1.2 per family, where the population is dying off faster than children are born to replace them. Not to mention all three countries tend to be insular and not immigration-friendly, with an influx of talent from other regions of the world the only obvious solution to inexorable shifts in demographic trendlines.