caulfield12

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3076789/thousands-covert-coronavirus-cases-go-under-radar-wuhan-chinese

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/opinions/germany-low-death-rate-for-coronavirus-sepkowitz/index.html Why is Germany doing so much better? Early testing and, lots of nurses.

Kasich, Hogan, DeWine and Baker might be it.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ Sure, anyone can argue anything, because NOBODY knows due to under-testing. This Stanford epidemiologist was just on CNN arguing based on information from a cruise ship and Iceland statistics (just one death!) that it was THEORETICALLY the same or even LESS dangerous than the common flu virus. He wants reliable data before making economy-shifting decisions, but it’s already way too late to use manpower for contact tracing and community surveillance. They need 30,000 respirators and ventilators in NYC over the next month. Without them, doctors will be making “hand of God” decisions (see Italy/Spain) on an hourly basis about who should live and die. China can’t get them to the US before May. Too late. They’ve come up with under 1,000 today. As they bid for them against other states and localities (capitalism!), it bids up the cost to taxpayers who will eventually foot the bill. They simply need to allocate all available resources to NYC...deal with the crisis there, then quickly move equipment and fully experienced (with COVID-19) staff all across the country as new trouble spots like Illinois, Louisiana, Washington and California flare up. That’s the only path that makes sense. GM, GE, Ford, Tesla and 3M can’t get it done that quickly. It would have required converting the factories 6-8 weeks ago to meet present and future demands. PS: Spain is reduced to transforming garbage bags into PPE and calling in NATO. So many bodies are piling up that nobody has the protective equipment to deal with them...so they all are being diverted to a massive ice skating arena.

QE, Fed purchases...lending power/backstop of the Fed, Treasury notes, etc. Once upon a time, spending $1 trillion was considered a clear threat to future generations of Americans. Now the pendulum has swung so far the other direction. The other $4 trillion will allow the Federal Reserve to make huge emergency bailouts to whatever entity it chooses — a measure that was used to prop-up Wall Street firms from collapse during the 2008 financial crisis.

Perfect FA acquisition target. Fits timeline, lowered cost/risk, expertise in organization dealing with numerous TJ recoveries...

You’re not calculating the mortality rate, though, from total cases. You have to compare to recovered to get the most accurate picture of the real situation on the ground. Trying to recall any president from Nixon until today who attempted to take credit publicly positive swings in the stock market.... President Trump said that a “big part” of the stock market and the Dow’s surge today was due to his work to get the country “open as soon possible” as well as the potential deal reached on the Hill. “This is very encouraging and I think part of the reason is looking what is close to being passed and I think a very big part of it is they see that we want to get our country open as soon as possible. They see we’re working very hard on that. That’s a very big factor I think in today’s historic gain,” Trump told reporters in the briefing room on Tuesday. cnn.com

The seemingly improving or cresting situation in Italy took another turn for the worse. Already at double China in roughly 1/3rd the amount of time. https://www.yahoo.com/news/italian-coronavirus-cases-likely-10-103516089.html ROME (Reuters) - Fatalities in Italy from coronavirus have surged in the last 24 hours, the Civil Protection Agency said on Tuesday, dashing hopes the epidemic in the world's worst hit country was easing after more encouraging numbers in the previous two days. The death toll rose by 743 on Tuesday, the second highest daily tally since the outbreak emerged in northern regions on Feb. 21, and up steeply from the 602 recorded on Monday. Italy has seen more fatalities than any other country, with latest figures showing that 6,820 people have died from the infection in barely a month. The total number of confirmed cases hit 69,176 on Tuesday, but with Italy testing only people with severe symptoms, the head of the Civil Protection Agency said the true number of infected people was probably 10 times higher.

Watch out, you’ll get Fauci’ed!!! But Morgan Stanley is warning that there are real risks to that strategy. "If the White House were to relax the social distancing measures 'soon,' well ahead of the necessary timeline to have a significant impact on our view, it would raise the risk of increasing the peak or delaying the time to peak," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report Tuesday. In other words, rather than flattening the curve, the government would be making it worse. If anything, the Wall Street firm is growing more concerned about the coronavirus outlook in the United States, which now has more than 50,000 confirmed cases. "High positive testing rates and mixed lock down measures raise [the] risk that our base case forecast may be optimistic," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. I forgot to mention in an earlier post about potential trouble areas...ICE detainees and prisons, in general. Had sime really bad clusters in a women’s prison here in China, and we only hear 10-15% of what’s actually going on, so probably far worse in actuality.

20 min ago More than 13% of Spanish coronavirus cases are health care workers From CNN's Lindsay Isaac Medical workers in Spain account for 13.6% of its total coronavirus cases, according to Fernando Simón, director of the Spanish Coordinating Centre for Health Alerts and Emergencies at Spain’s Ministry of Health. Health care workers account for 5,400 of the country’s 39,673 total cases, he said on Tuesday.

Okay, thank god the #2 in command isn’t in charge, then.

62 million. Like shutting down all of California or Italy for eleven full weeks. And there’s still a growing concern with roughly one million migrant workers finally leaving the province (they were trapped and now in massive debt after going so long without income, and no bailout checks ) and eventually city for their factory/manufacturing jobs in other areas of the country. One local case in Hubei and only “imported” cases across the country....nobody believes it. There were supposedly ten new Covid cases at Xiehe Hospital today, not very far from where I live.

Texas is probably going to end up with something similar...based on comments from Gov. Abbott and especially the Lt. Governor. Wonder if GOP governors and states are indemnified when this massive gamble goes south?

Even then, everywhere between the coasts but perhaps Illinois...without 43% of the country, you’re not going to be able to get the economy humming along like it needs to. You still have huge issues with energy industry there in Texas, hotels, airlines (opening up more flights just spreads it to the middle of the country)...the biggest area is the restaurant industry, with so many jobs interconnected. If you can invest into delivery and carry out systems that are safe but ultimately prevent 2/3 or 3/4 restaurants from shutting down permanently, you have to at least look at that.

Dr. Fauci sidelined again. SIGH. Here’s the thing. Even with 400 respirators here from stockpiles, Musk contributing around 1000 to California....they’re tens of thousands from having enough for NYC. Which is 30,000 more that are needed to save lives. Not needed in May or six weeks from now, critical to survival 2-3 weeks from now. We’re supposed to be the greatest country on earth and we’re relegated to experimenting with split respirators and ventilators to take care of two patients simultaneously. Analogies to car accidents or flu deaths are completely beside the point. Gov. Cuomo had it right, channeling his father’s immigrant roots. That’s not who we are as a country...to just accept 1-2% of our fellow Americans dying, not without fighting until the very end to save each and every life. They’re not just numbers on an actuarial table.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-recession-to-hit-over-24-million-workers-hardest-study-151816474.html Fifteen biggest markets/areas to be hit by coronavirus job losses or displacement. Entertainment/tourism and energy hugh on the list.

Let’s just pass a new law to set the DJIA back to 29,600. Or, better yet, 30,000. Problem solved!!!

Glad someone is paying attention!

Not beat. We had an outbreak of hemorrhagic fever in Shaanxi Province. Hantavirus death in Yunnan. Hong Kong had to shut down international airport again due to imported cases from abroad...mostly stranded students returning, along with permanent residents from all over the globe. Singapore back in a huge fight again after besting back initial wave, mostly from churches there (in that way, quite similar to S.Korea.) Malaysia and Thailand starting to go sideways...Indonesia with 300+ million looms, along with Italy. Half the roughly 700 cases on the Grand Princess were asymptomatic when testing positive. One guy was in the hospital in Omaha for 28+ days before he came up negative finally. I will watch Fox News Town Hall at 12 EST. First time in life watching Fox. Just to see Dr. Fauci, whether still sidelined. Knew Harris Faulkner when she was just starting her media career at WDAF in Kansas City. Remember Bill Hemmer from CNN days. Trump will be on around 1230, 1130 CST.

But they are issued 1099’s through a US address or PO Box, yes?

Being outdoors helps a bit. MMA or WWE was one that was going forward until the halt. Golf without patrons wouldn’t be dramatically different for non-majors. Football becomes a lot more complicated due to the amount of contact and number of players/coaches/staff associated with each team.

It’s pretty obvious that chloroquine and the phosphate version for aquariums/fish was too subtle a distinction to make for this particular family.

Well, those are the “scare the hell out of people to get them to comply voluntarily” worst-case numbers. It’s more instructive to look at Spain for a comparison. They’re not at peak yet. Germany and France seem to be doing better, and the UK is taking a similar approach to US...which is essentially playing Blackjack against the house. There are some really scary areas yet to come, though... 1) Most of Africa 2) India 3) Middle East, starting with Iran and spilling over 4) Hundreds of thousands of displaced persons and refugee camps 5) Homeless populations in the US

“For every officially certificated positive, there are ten non-certified,” Angelo Borrelli of the agency said in an interview with the daily La Repubblica. His office told CNN the quote was accurate. That would mean Italy would have had more than 600,000 positive cases of coronavirus, according to Borrelli’s estimate, having recorded a total of 63,967 cases as of Monday. It could also potentially help explain what seems to be a much higher death rate in Italy than in other countries. According to World Health Organization statistics, as of March 22, Italy had a death rate of more than 9% of all confirmed cases. If the country actually has had ten times as many cases as recorded, the death rate would be 0.9%. This would be more in line with the 0.6% death rate in South Korea, for example. Civil protection agency data Tuesday showed a slight decrease in the number of cases for a second consecutive day, but only in the “next few hours we will see if the growth curve is really starting to flatten,” Borrelli said. “We should buy more ventilators and masks should be sold at every street corner,” said Borrelli, admitting difficulties in finding these medical supplies. www.cnn.com Gut reaction is they’re probably closer to 4-5%, maybe 6%. And we’ll never know, but even the most draconian population controls in history only led to a 3.8% mortality rate here in Wuhan. South Korea has many more younger non-smoking women with the virus, Italy has a significant number of older smoking males.

Amen. I instinctively knew trouble was in store when Dr. Fauci didn’t come out. The president hates being upstaged, and the doctor’s comments about not being able to push him out of the way and take the mike were received predictably. Part of me believes he simply wants to prove he’s smarter than Fauci now. Another larger part believes he stands on no consistent principle (deficit reduction? Now they’re opening the Federal taps full bore, whereas the Obama stimulus package was purposely denied even a trillion dollar price tag. Imagine Obama handing out government checks to the poorest Americans, and daring to do it without an American flag lapel pin??? A purple tie on? What? Can’t do it. Now even the likes of Mitt Romney are in the UBI deep state Wang Gang purchasing votes , lol.) The president and particularly Kudlow, Mnuchin and Navarro so obviously realized the stock market was cratering....unemployment of 30% looming...that no incumbent has been in this position in an election year with 43% approval and heading straight into a recession/depression and survived. Well, McKinley 120 years ago. This is much bigger than Carter in 1980, George HW Bush in 1992, this is like end of days/armageddon style gambling, except with American peoples’ lives, not steaks, water, Trump University, Trump Shuttles or over-leveraged casinos on the firing line. I really HOPE it works, because my 91 year old mother in assisted living could easily be one of the victims...but I just can’t believe that the only thing standing in his way is determined state and local officials. I never thought in my lifetime I would see the GOP acting like an authoritarian state while the resistance against centralized power in DC was governors and mayors and epidemiologists standing in the breach.