caulfield12

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/wisconsin/2020/03/20/sen-ron-johnson-defends-pacur-sale-amid-insider-trading-accusations/2882248001/ Sen. Johnson situation looks unseemly in terms of timing but not quite the level of egregiousness. Just suspicious timing.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/perdue-loeffler-among-senators-whose-stock-trading-during-coronavirus-raises-questions/YjEYsWqAVwZh52HTpl1EpL/ This has a blow by blow list of every single transaction. Shorting/dumping energy companies that early? At any rate, two for one deal in the state of GA with Perdue involved as well. I would say pick Abrams, but betting money for Biden VP is on Klobuchar and Warren. https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/tucker-carlson-calls-for-senator-burr-to-resign-over-insider-trading-ahead-of-coronavirus-055910184.html Burr’s really going to be nailed to the cross. Colllins gone, Loeffler, Burr, Perdue, Inhofe, Ron Johnson (who was questioning the government “over-response” just a few days ago Diane Feinstein, don’t let the door hit you on the way out. Put them all in jail until the last coronavirus case is cleared in the US. https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/we-should-blow-up-the-bridges-coronavirus-leads-to-class-warfare-in-hamptons/ Greg, you’ll like this one...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/politics/millennials-coronavirus-social-responsibility/index.html

Everyone running for office should be forced to sell out of their positions or a blind trust where no moves can be made during their term in office. Eric running the Trump Organization while his father is president...certainly no advantages will accrue there. Whether it’s nepotism or insider trading on both sides, the system was designed to be corrupted. Which makes the college admissions scandal sort of a breath of fresh air...but there will always be Rick Singers and Lori Loughlins just waiting for their opportunity to game the system when things quiet down.

What’s going on with that Chateau Center in Willowbrook? Seems like another Kirkland (WA) is the making...46 cases already?

https://sports.yahoo.com/angels-manager-joe-maddon-playing-223700978.html https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28923583/adam-silver-lays-conditions-nba-return-mulls-charity-game-diversion

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/d1bc74bc-c2c2-3b76-ae26-257baaa99b61/jim-cramer-praises-mark.html Cuban, love him or hate him, has a lot of the sane ideas...seemingly. That’s $114 billion for Boeing and the airline industry bailouts, if we’re keeping score. Or $877 each for 130 million American families. It’s a start. Chop off the richest ones, make it $1000-2000. The cost of 10-25% unemployment for 6+ months is going to be in the additional trillions in bankrupted companies and 401k/IRA losses.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-governor-refuses-shut-down-215237594.html https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/ron-johnson-questions-federal-guidance-issued-to-fight-coronavirus-as-cases-and-deaths-rise/ar-BB11o9a3 https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/rachel-maddow-7-states-coronavirus-100615754.html Maddow, citing the National Governor’s Association, said Texas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Missouri, Mississippi, Idaho and Wyoming had not yet implemented statewide measures in response to the public health crisis. “No state-mandated school closures. No state-mandated limits on large gatherings,” she said. “No state mandates on the operations of businesses like bars and restaurants.” Maddow noted how, in some places, political leaders had issued “nonbinding recommendations” and “urgings,” which led some local school districts and businesses to take matters into their own hands and shutter of their own accord.

When they primarily invest influxes of cash flow into buying back stock to enrich executives, board members and executives...they got greedy after these last 10-11 years, neglecting to put the money in a rainy day, so to speak. Starbucks just did the same thing recently, but Trump will most definitely rescue them.

So we’re talking 3 1/2 to 4 months as the realistic timeframe from beginning to end...IF IF IF quarantine executed properly. Total lockdown quarantine from January 23rd to April 2nd. Essentially, ten full weeks. Wuhan, the Chinese city at ground zero of the coronavirus pandemic, will need to see 14 consecutive days of no new cases before travel restrictions can be lifted, a top Chinese health expert told state media on Tuesday. Speaking to the state-run China Daily newspaper, Li Lanjuan, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and senior adviser to the country’s top health authority said: “If no new case of the coronavirus has been reported for 14 consecutive days in Wuhan following the last reported cases, we believe it will be a time when the lockdown can gradually be lifted.” Mainland China has seen a steady decline in locally transmitted cases for weeks, even as numbers skyrocketed across the rest of the world. Today, China reported its first day of no new domestic cases since the outbreak started -- all new cases were imported from abroad. Wuhan had been reporting cases in the single digits leading up to today's announcement. The rest of the country has been slowly relaxing restrictions on people's movements in the past week, with highways reopening and quarantine stations closing. Inter-provincial travel, which had previously been shut down entirely, is gradually resuming. People from other provinces are now allowed into Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, if they pass temperature checks and have the appropriate "health codes" -- color-coded passes that indicate permission to travel. cnn.com

The homeless issues are 1000x worse in LA, SF, Seattle, NYC, DC, Florida....right now, roughly 70% of domestic airline routes are currently gone, the majority of international and all but Delta United and Southwest will go bankrupt or be consolidated.

Richard Quest on CNN was estimating a $3-4 trillion price tag....for government/taxpayers. That doesn’t count all those hurt by the roughly 35% fall in equity markets, with a long ways to go now before the absolute bottom. Imagine the hospitals even 75% where Italy is at now health crisis wise, Boeing and car manufacturers shuttered...2/3rds of American jobs now in service industries. That’s 10-25% unemployment quite easily. Eventually, the state unemployment offices will be shuttered, banks closed. We are approaching our second paycheck (first February 25th, then March 25th) with no salary because the school is claiming they have to physically go into the bank and do it manually. The credit card company is lenient for now (have to take money out of ATM and physically go into bank to deposit into onto wife’s card.) All the expenses for two months on there (food deliveries) for four...but we have never failed to pay off full amount but no practical way to pay until banks actually reopen physically and tellers/cashiers are working.

The problem is many people are experiencing stomach problems like diarrhea and nausea/vomiting and those weren’t originally on the initial screening symptoms. Bathroom hygiene is now coming to the fore as one of the key factors in the spread. So all those shared/common bathrooms for Spring Breakers in Florida will be a great help!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html I am just relaying his idea....which seems crazy at first. Some are suggesting every American gets an open credit line/loan from the govnt to be paid back within five years. That’s even crazier. Or the Fed’s going to have to invest in corporate bonds to keep cash flowing...as long as it isn’t devoted to stock buybacks like Starbucks just did. It’s not a business crisis, it's a health crisis impacting every aspect of American life. If we go week to week and argue over bailing out which airline...hotel chain...cruise line...energy company or restaurant, we’ll have a $30 trillion deficit in no time. Instead of stretching this out over months or even years...do like we did here in China. Whether it’s 4 weeks or 6 or 8, it’s better for the government to protect workers over that time span than to let half the S&P 500 get wiped out because of a virus or balance sheet that’s not ideal. Food choices will be more limited than people are used to...but it’s not like we are being asked to storm the beaches of Normandy and face a 50% chance of not going home in one piece.

Obviously we still need food, health care, pharmacies, gas stations, military/National Guard. We can convert all the planes for airlines that will soon be bailed out for deliveries if necessary. The infrastructure has to be kept in place to ensure food delivery.

Does that start election day...I think it was November 3rd, 2016....or Inauguration on January 20th, 2017?

Shut it down...the entire country for 30 days. GM, Ford, Fiat/Chrysler about to shut down. Airports not far behind. Then hotels. Etc. The government can’t afford to bail out every individual company...but they can make the workers whole. No rent collection, no interest charged, loans deferred...everyone needs to take a break with their family and have the entire government take over. Do it incrementally and it’s months or years to get back to normal.

Sure, but it didn’t help to mention July or August, either. 2-3 months is the amount of time it SHOULD take if everyone does what they're supposed to do. Here in China, those decisions are/were taken away from people. But if authorities see young people going out to bars and clubs, flooding restaurants...celebrating St. Patrick’s or congregating en masse in Florida for Spring Break, then those governors will likewise take more and more freedoms away. You’ll have the National Guard enforcing quarantines...the more people who act like that guy in Kentucky who tested positive and refused to stay home.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3075732/coronavirus-hubeis-migrant-workers-living-fear-debts-mount It’s the same way for migrant workers here, many who have not been able to work for 8-10 weeks now. Even if we have the greatest health care system in the world for the top 20%, the bottom 80% is still quite vulnerable...which means that every single American is vulnerable. Whether we point the finger at Millennials, 18-24 year old Spring Breakers or illegal immigrants...it really doesn’t matter, because having to make a decision between losing one’s job and taking care of a family vs. preserving the health of those sixty and over will eventually lead to tragic results. Inequality of access to quality health care and sick leave.....or simply societal inequality (celebrities and athletes having no problems getting a test), something has to be done. Listening to C-Span, every thirty minutes you get a new story of people hoarding necessities at grocery stores while seniors are struggling just to get by. Why can’t they have specific senior hours at grocery stores to help make their lives easier? Heck, do it during flu season, too. You shouldn’t have to go through 2-3 doctors...nurses....administrative assistants, getting sent to 2-3 more possible places to get a test, with unreturned phone calls and runarounds. Someone has to be accountable for results. The system just beats people down and makes them give up...meaning they go out when they’re sick out of frustration because nobody can even tell them if they’re sick or not and need to stay in self-quarantine.

Marquee Network really in trouble before it could even get off the ground...great timing, with the Cubs trending downward, and corporate America looking months of uncertainty and stock prices being slashed. Wonder how many people will end up dumping cable and satellite packages if this gets bad as predicted? Otoh, the whole family really needs to have entertainment, a diversion from the reality creeping up. Wouldn’t want to be in that position. Maybe calmer heads prevail and both sides try to create a win-win deal, but don’t envy the position they find currently find themselves in.

Greg, the purpose of the article and projections by Dr. Ferguson was to scare the hell out of world leaders...before it’s too late to avoid going down such a path. Finally, the UK and Boris Johnson have figured it out. The irony is that ONLY the idea of the NFL season and UFC being wiped out FINALLY pushed Trump to start taking it more seriously. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/trump-awakens-to-the-covid-19-danger#intcid=recommendations_default-popular_43a0a69e-53f8-4291-b253-d3a5a8e80ca0_popular4-1

So those last three points at the bottom which Dr. Niall Ferguson made....on the differences between Italy and South Korea, combined with: 4) different strains of the virus in the two countries, Italian version more virulent 5) generally an older/aging population in Italy 6) affecting older men at almost 2X the rate as women and the culture of heavy smoking prevalent in both Italy/China 7) social distancing influenced by old young living apart in US, whereas in Asia or Italy you commonly see 2-3 generations living together...even going as far as the more intimate way people greet each other in Italy, Spain and France But a recent study by China’s Centre for Disease Control based on data in the country found that 14.8 per cent of people aged 80 and older who are infected die of the virus. The study found an 8 per cent death rate for people in their 70s and a 3.6 per cent death rate for those in their 60s. By comparison, estimates of the death rate in the overall population are around 1 per cent or lower. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3075500/coronavirus-epidemic-warning-hong-kong-and-others-prepare-reality https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-leadership-challenge/index.html

One would like to think over that amount of time they could scale up the ventilator purchases...or simply do a lend/lease program akin to post World War Two, creating a world-wide “community bank” of resources and also private partners when public stockpiles are insufficient (like the testing kits fiasco.) Drugs are going to be more complicated, with so much production being sourced here in China. Every country can continue to isolate itself further...or we can all decide to collaborate. But nobody believed those Imperial College numbers from Niall Ferguson here in China, either. Ignore them at your own peril...but especially your parents and grandparents or even greatgrandparents. For what it’s worth, local infections the last three days in Wuhan are just 4, 1 and 1. Almost everything virus related now is coming from outside the country due to travel. This is Day 56 of full lockdown. Still haven’t gone outside once, which is quite painful with the really pleasant spring weather and abundant sunshine. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-first-coronavirus-error-was-complacency/ Yet, although the curve of confirmed U.S. cases looks about as steep as the curve for Italy, there appears to be a lag. Some have hypothesized that the U.S. is about 11 days behind Italy, so that San Francisco will be where Milan is today by March 26. But why is it behind? The obvious explanation is the disastrous slowness with which the U.S. has been able to make functioning COVID-19 tests available. Even without testing, however, we would expect to see many more people already falling ill and dying in American hospitals. It is not as if older Americans are on average healthier than their Italian contemporaries: rather the opposite, I should think. A better explanation, which I owe to two German economists, is that Italy’s social network may differ from that of the U.S. in terms of general gregariousness and physical proximity and, more importantly, in terms of interactions between the older and younger generations.

Treasury Secretary warns US could see 20% unemployment rate due to coronavirus, source says From CNN's Jeremy Diamond Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned Republican senators Tuesday that the coronavirus pandemic could drive up US unemployment to 20%, a Republican Senate source told CNN. Mnuchin's comments came as he urged Republican senators to act on economic stimulus measures totaling $1 trillion designed to avert that kind of worst case scenario. In the same meeting, Mnuchin also said he is concerned the economic ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic could be worse than the 2008 financial crisis, the source said. Depending on the fallout from all this, who gets saved or made whole and who ends up “back in their mom’s basement“ like a decade ago...there’s going to be a further shift in the country coming mostly from the group who got left behind during the Financial Crisis and political left/Millennials/Hispanics (it’s not clear yet which direction union members and non college educated whites will go) for wholesale societal changes. No matter what happens in November, it’s pretty clear the country is splitting into three main groups (with the Democratic party further dividing into two opposing camps)...based on those issues like economic inequality, climate change, breaking up massive corporate oligopolies, universal health care, UBI/worker displacement, college costs, etc. The establishment/moderates/centrists rightfully value stability....and they do comprise 40-50% of the people in the US today, but go left or right along depending on economic or social/moral issues and beliefs. Then there are those further on the left and right who just want to blow up the entire system for completely different reasons (immigration arguments, for example.) In times of crisis, the middle always wins. That said, it’s going to be fascinating to watch play out. Assuming that we get through this...with deficits nearing $30 trillion, we’re likely again in the near future to hear terms like austerity and balanced budgets with tax raises and/or accompanying Social Security Medicare/Medicaid cuts. From a historical perspective, 2024 is looking like it will be the reverse of Taft/Wilson/Roosevelt...with the left splitting off instead of the GOP...except it feels like the period of time from Wilson to FDR is going to be cut from 20 down to 8-12 years. 2032-2036 is when the government and country is FINALLY going to have to reckon with the financial policies and resulting income equality of the prior fifty years. Of course, I might be totally wrong and all these wholesale societal changes are going to happen much more quickly, with the pandemic being the critical inflection point, haha.

Yeah, much like 1917...that movie has to be seen in a theatre to be fully appreciated. There was one I watched a long time ago, U-571, the speakers were turned up so loud it seemed like the depth charges were going to blow patrons out of the theatre, as well. Watching on a phone or Ipad wouldn’t do it justice to feelings of fear/dread/trepidation one experienced, like you were a crew member of the German sub itself.