caulfield12

Isn’t there a clause that kicks in with lots of insurance world-wide that kicks in when a pandemic has officially been declared by the WHO? CNN did it 2-3 days earlier, obviously that declaration wouldn’t be legally enforceable. Figuring out a new schedule when you have the split of teams you do between AZ and FL is a logistical nightmare...not to mention the pitchers in AZ are going to put up lopsided numbers on the negative side of the ledger. Detroit and Minnesota would have to play against each other almost every week? The biggest stadiums down there are around 10-12,000....like just a few AAA parks?

Seattle and Santa Clara, CA....already took those decisions away from the individual teams and MLB by capping the size of any event. Boston, LA, NYC and the DC area (enhanced risk to continuity of power) could easily be next the way things are trending. In NYC, one lawyer, age 50, spread it to roughly 50 members of his synagogue. At any rate, let’s wait and see what happens with the First Four in Dayton early next week. Master’s must be nervous as well. Talking about Olympics being delayed or moved back 1-2 years, comments that were quickly disavowed in Japan, that has political reasons to undertest there as well to suppress numbers and scare intl athletic community.

The beverage company must not like most major news networks sticking with coronavirus over Covid-19.

From ft.com That’s just ICU. Not necessarily counting severe/recovering but still requiring daily hospitalization before release. By Tuesday, the first day of a nationwide clampdown on travel and social contact, the total number of infections across Italy had increased to 10,149 from 4,636 on Friday. While about one in 10 have since recovered — and at least 631 people have died — 877 patients are currently in intensive care. Lombardy, which has one of the best-resourced regional health systems in Italy, has been facing a surge in acute cases. As of Tuesday the number of people infected in Italy’s industrial heart had risen to 5,791, including 446 in intensive care. “Franky, I don’t know for how long the health system can cope, I don’t even want to think about how it could end,” Massimo Galli, head of the department for infectious diseases at the Sacco Hospital in Milan, told the Financial Times. “We are holding up, but other hospitals are much worse off than us and it is a fact that we will come increasingly under pressure.”

And they’re a nationalized healthcare system where all the costs to patients are basically subsidized. We’ve gone away from more treatment-oriented to high-tech diagnostic, basically, get them in and out as quickly as possible, convert to outpatient status. That won’t work at all with coronavirus...it’s going to be a high stress, staff and bed-intensive process requiring multiple weeks for a single patient.

Baseball related discussion...unless you guys want to continue in SLAM Covid-13 dedicated thread. It’s an interesting topic, but hard to separate baseball from political considerations these days.

Fixed.....three options. Maybe I’m already anticipating the option we’d all like to see is off the table by then. The new ballpark in Texas is supposed to open with an exhibition game on Monday, the 23rd.

https://kdvr.com/sports/san-jose-sharks-adhering-to-public-gathering-ban-may-play-in-empty-arena/ Not exactly. https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-san-jose-coronavirus-ban-sap-center/c-316072038 Between Seattle, Santa Clara County/CA, Boston in the last 24 hours, NYC, Florida and the DC metro area...you’re going to see more of these situations. Cities that began interventions earlier had significantly lower peaks of pneumonia and influenza-related mortality. And cities that implemented four or more interventions had a lower median peak weekly death rate (65/100,000 people) versus 146/100,000 people from cities with three or fewer interventions. The response between Philadelphia and St. Louis made a great case that social distancing does work. In Philadelphia, the first case was reported on Sept 17 and authorities downplayed the significance of the case. They even allowed a city-wide parade to happen on Sept. 28. School closures and bans on public gatherings did not happen until Oct.3, 16 days since the first case. Meanwhile, St. Louis had its first case on Oct 5 and the city implemented social distancing measures two days later. What was the effect? The 14-day difference in response time between the two cities represents approximately 3-5 doubling times for the epidemic. The peak weekly death rate from pneumonia and influenza-related deaths was 257/100,000 people in Philadelphia. The same metric in St. Louis was 31/100,000. https://microbialmenagerie.com/social-distancing-1918-influenza-coronavirus-covid-19/

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-does-coronavirus-treatment-cost-cdc-health-insurance-2020-2 https://amgreatness.com/2020/03/10/wuhan-virus-exposes-the-danger-of-reliance-upon-china/

Fine, we’ll go with a poll question in an attempt to steer the topic away from polarizing directions... Another option would be to start the season late/r and institute the 14 game playoff format as there’s no better time to experiment than the situation the US is going to be collectively facing the next 2-3 months. https://theathletic.com/1666353/2020/03/10/well-make-it-work-how-chicagos-teams-are-dealing-with-coronavirus-concerns/?source=dailyemail https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2875675-report-mlb-seriously-considering-expanded-playoff-field-starting-in-2022

The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings (13x flu mortality rate), 0.4% in 40-somethings (4x flu mortality rate), and 0.2% in people 10 to 39 (twice as dangerous as the common flu.) https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

Did any of them die...get quickly removed by a rapid response team in hazmat suits, with no goodbyes, no funeral...no ashes to collect after the cremation even? Have you been reading about what is going on in Italy and Iran, for example? Because 6-8% of infected adults in Italy are not dying from the common, ordinary flu strain...which everyone at least can be vaccinated against. As of Monday, only 1,707 people had been tested by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. More tests may have been conducted at lower level public health laboratories but the number of infections could also be bigger, according to a new Cedars-Sinai study, which estimated that between 1,043 and 9,484 people in the US may have been infected by March 1. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074506/coronavirus-lesson-china-dont-make-patients-pay-tests-and

A lot of people are unaware they even have underlying conditions. One of the dangers is the assumption that people in their teens and twenties are basically invincible...and that this is a virus that only affects those who are already 60+. Most importantly, they underestimate the ease of passing it on to someone else when they are asymptomatic. At peak shedding, scientists say, people with coronavirus are emitting more than 1,000 times more virus than was emitted during peak shedding of the SARS infection. The SARS virus sits deep in your lungs. The coronavirus is in your throat, ready to spread.

The voting results the last two weeks would argue that everyone is preparing to be completely realistic, if nothing else. And, there are plenty of hurting Americans already....cruise companies, airline industry, movie theatres, restaurants, anyone involved in the production of oil as well. Of course, the bitter irony is that sports (and for some, religion) is what used to bring together people from all walks of life to unify them behind a common cause...rooting for their favorite team, spending time together with family and friends. Because the alternative, something dystopian along the lines of Cormac McCarthy’s The Road, is too terrible to envision. Being sealed away from the world and behind a screen/tablet for weeks on end just reinforces the common need we all have for human contact/face-to-face communication.

You know that someone out there is just waiting to sue anyone available with deep pockets. Stories are already coming out about passengers on that Grand Princess ship unknowingly going forth with their second leg from SF to Hawaii and back despite company already having knowledge of infections (one died after first leg to Mexico and back) among passengers/crew but still going forward anyway. What’s the reasonable standard of care in this situation...? Are all teams going to follow the no crowds rule, or just in Seattle, California, Florida, DC/Balt and NYC? That doesn’t seem fair, exactly...that some teams would get much bigger home field advantages.

Not to mention losing Chaim Bloom to the Red Sox...so unfortunate they don’t have a decent stadium or enough fan support to appreciate their efforts.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/should-mlb-guard-against-coronavirus-and-play-opening-day-in-empty-ballparks-224235397.html What a mess. Delay the season? Play without crowds? Play until “significant numbers“ of fans/players/coaches/umpires get sick first? There’s already lawsuits flying back and forth, like the men’s and women’s Ivy League basketball teams denied a postseason...the San Jose Sharks feuding with local officials in Santa Clara County, CA. LeBron’s comments expressing a desire to not play in empty stadiums, etc. There were even rumors that Gary Sanchez of the Yankees already has the virus. Should there be league-wide decisions...or should the leagues leave it up to the government and/or health care experts to decide for them first?

In some countries, including China, the SARS outbreak in 2003 was a formative experience. For many it felt like a close call. Even if the number of victims was limited, the impact on the regional economy was severe, and everyone had to wonder: What if this happens again, with a more contagious virus? At peak shedding, scientists say, people with coronavirus are emitting more than 1,000 times more virus than was emitted during peak shedding of the SARS infection. The SARS virus sits deep in your lungs. The coronavirus is in your throat, ready to spread. https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-clash-civilizations-175402475.html German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Parliament on Tuesday that 60% to 70% of the German population could contract the coronavirus. Merkel's dropping the figure at the outset of a parliamentary meeting left the room silent, according to a report from Bild, a German newspaper. Germany already has more than 1,400 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the disease resulting from the virus. https://www.yahoo.com/news/angela-merkel-just-estimated-60-184506028.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/26/coronavirus-raises-fears-us-drug-supply-disruptions/ Couldn’t find anything more recent. That said, Xi Jinping was here yesterday and there are rumors the airport could open...at least domestically...as early as Thursday. So we’re on the cusp of getting QR Health Codes on our phones that will set Red, Yellow and Green levels for intra-Hubei Province travel. I know there’s quite a bit of drug production here...unfortunately, we also have one of the biggest fentanyl manufacturers in the world, as well.

Rays continue to set the industry model for small market clubs. Will be fascinating to see the on field MLB results of the Sox and Padres play out over the next decade...two quite distinctive models for team-building. Padres have traded more guys in the last 18 months than the White Sox have across an entire decade. All the Central teams are doing well in the rankings, minus the Royals (which we will likely end up behind with the graduation of Kopech, unless we have a series of breakouts in our system from unexpected places.)

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield said state and local public health labs are underequipped and understaffed. "The truth is we've not invested, we've underinvested in the public health labs," Redfield said at a House Appropriations hearing for the 2021 CDC budget. “There's not enough equipment, there's not enough people, there's not enough internal capacity, there's no surge capacity,” Redfield added. Source: cnn.com

All that sounds eerily like what the hospitals went through in Wuhan...except Italy should have had a sense of what was coming if anyone was paying attention to the news developing on an hourly basis here. But it could easily be a word for word translation...doctors and nurses cutting off all their hair, the facial and head wounds from the mask straps, the never-ending shifts with adult diapers because PPE was so hard to supply/resupply those first 2-3 weeks. Watching co-workers get ill right and left around you, fighting just because there was no alternative, even with people dying in the hallways all around...meanwhile, hundreds if not thousands of patients wandering around with loved ones in the cold and rain, unable to find a single hospital that would accept them...but shunned by communities deathly afraid of getting contaminated themselves should a potentially sick person enter. Hundreds if not thousands of dogs and cats on the streets, as there was a rumor in the beginning they could easily transmit the virus.

Sure...well, one of the costs here was nobody could see loved ones when they died as their bodies were taken away by men in hazmat suits like a scene out of ET. No funerals or mourning music. Just hundreds of bodies bring cremated, day after day. Can Americans live with that type of sacrifice and surrender having a feeling of closure if relatives die in isolation wards in hospitals? Hard to imagine it...it’s what they tried to do at Kirkland and the families started flipping out.

Which would be fine if the mortality rate wasn’t 20-30x higher and there was a known vaccine to fight back with...in a way, it might not matter at this point. There’s likely to be a second or third wave and Covid-19 could easily be added to the annual flu season line-up each year as it mutates. But here’s the problem with this approach... A leading epidemiologist suggested that the coronavirus could infect 60% of the world's population, based on its estimated "attack rate," if it's left "unchecked." Dr. Gabriel Leung told The Guardian's Sarah Boseley on Tuesday that "60% of the world's population is an awfully big number." Leung's estimate was based on the rate at which people with the virus are passing it on, which experts have said could stand at 2.5 people per infected person, according to Reuters. Leung, a SARS expert who also managed Hong Kong's response to the swine-flu outbreak of 2009, spoke to The Guardian en route to a global research forum convened by the World Health Organization in response to the coronavirus outbreak. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-could-infect-60-percent-of-world-unchecked-gabriel-leung-2020-2 Even if he’s off by a magnitude of 5-6x lesser spread (based on Chinese initial projections of 500,000 vs. 83,000), it would ultimately kill roughly 6-10 million people around the world. And, for every “success” like China, Singapore and South Korea...the risks for the rest of the globe go up with every potential failure like Italy or Iran.

Going by the warmer weather theory, Greece would seem to be at an advantage. But that doesn’t necessarily account for countries like Iran or Singapore...Spain, as well.