caulfield12

They can’t do that yet...simply because outside of NYC, California and Seattle...right now, there’s just no real sense due to lack of testing results where the potential second/third generation of clusters will develop. That would induce panic that’s unnecessary. They just to get those in the most endangered areas to start taking this more seriously...and expedite the allocation of resources there like we did here to get two emergency hospitals built in 10-14 days. That allowed the critical cases to be sequestered from the rest of the moderately ill population.

Or read The Cactus League new fiction work for further motivation...

Now the most important calculations are simply hospital capacity and mitigating risk for critical and severe cases (+/- 20%)...and Option B/C/D plans when X percentage of doctors and health care workers inevitably get sick.

I think he means the rate was 21 out of 45, with one conclusive. The reality is that after EVERYONE is tested....a few hundred passengers and roughly half the 1100+ crew members will have contracted it if it’s anything like what we saw in Yokohama.

The entire COUNTRY of Italy is now on lockdown. That wasn’t priced in at the end of the day. Or what can go wrong in the press conference about to transpire when a certain someone releases his pent-up frustration about the falling stock market and four GOPers already on self-quarantine. Short of MBS and Putin calling off their game of chicken...

Pretty hard to jump back into the market when a Wuhan/Italy outbreak promises another 10-15% fall in the market. Yeah, yeah, dollar cost averaging from here on out the next year.

Reports of Italian hospitals being overrun just like here in the first month...patients in hallways, chaos. One can only guess how bad Iran is, we know there are stacks of corpses piling up because of the burial rites that are specific to Islam. If you watch the reporting in Italy, most people there are still on the streets, public buses running, etc. America also doesn’t have the ubiquitous mobile/e-payments apps system like S.Korea, Singapore and HK to force everyone to use QR Health Pass Codes for mass movement...so you have massive lines for manual temperature checks. Instead, you get the honor system for now, which has already been exploited, like the Missouri case where a family member of someone who returned from Italy and tested positive, the father of patient went to Father/Daughter dance and potentially exposed the entire school.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay The actual rates for the entire world are 3.5-5.9% (deaths/recovered plus deaths for the higher range, lower ranges is deaths/total cases.) Even if you go with 3%, that still 30x more dangerous the flu. The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists. The researchers also found that it can last for days on surfaces where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if an unsuspecting person touches it and then rubs their face and hands.

The common flu typically runs at a mortality rate of 1/10th of 1%. The coronavirus has been running at 3-4% consistently here in Wuhan. If we were as effective as South Korea and Singapore, it MIGHT be closer to 1%. But we can’t come close to getting a handle on it without testing and isolating clusters and Patient Zeros in each outbreak area. The numbers in the US are going to be similar to Italy...because of the pressure to work even when ill and the lack of people willing to risk not being charged $1400 USD per test, not to mention attendant hospitalization, which won’t be covered under many health care policies. Keep in mind, they take two swabs, so two tests and that’s over the course of 2-3 weeks if someone is hospitalized, so that’s a minimum of 5-6 tests over the course of treatment, plus meds. You can argue the denominator (deaths/total verified infections) should be lower due to limited testing, but then 12-14 already died at Kirkland before they could even be tested, so you quickly go from 22 to 34-36 deaths in a simple ststistical adjustment. You had 3 staffers trying to save 90 elderly because everyone working there was suck or afraid to get sick and expose their family. 1) There is no vaccine and won’t be for 12-18 months 2) The average person gives it to 2.6 others 3) Asymptomatic transmission...and potential to get sick again or infect others even with negative or inconclusive tests 4) Transmission can occur over a 14-23 day period 5) Spread was 4X the rate of SARs in 2002-2003

Nope. But at least I would have gotten decent food in the hospital. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/politics/coronavirus-washington-nursing-home-life-care-center-kirkland-cnntv/index.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-coronavirus-proves-enemy-cant-121123555.html

Emma 3.5 (Taylor-Joy one of the most talented in upcoming generation of actresses) The Way Back 3.25 (great work by Affleck in familiar personal territory, sports story aspect the traditional cliche) Onward 3.0 (tries just a bit too hard for that Field of Dreams father and son bonding vibe)

Hit the breakers on futures trading at a 5% dive, oil prices cratering with supply war/glut between OPEC, Russia and US. Markets set to open about 17% below DJIA highs of the last year. -20% is textbook definition for bear correction.

The news about trying to suppress the CDC advice about elderly and those with preexisting conditions NOT taking commercial flights is disheartening. And while it’s pretty unheard of for teenagers and twenty-somethings to die, there are/were plenty of deaths recorded here in their thirties or forties. Dr. Li Wenliang, the whistleblowing doctor from our neighborhood, was only 33-34. If I came back to the US, even with traveller’s insurance...I would quickly be at risk of a medical bankruptcy if I didn’t have enough savings. Meanwhile, my soon to be 91 year old mother (w/ Alzheimer’s/dementia) is at an assisted living center in Iowa quite similar to the one in Kirkland. If anything happened to her, I wouldn’t even be able to come home...because I would be quarantined for two additional weeks, even though I have already been asymptomatic for almost seven weeks, without having gone outside once yet. As noted, the biggest threat is not to any one individual...but quickly passing it on to 2-3 others, and there have been cases where 10-15 critical medical personnel got sick from just a single patient.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-airport-screeners-health-workers-045605071.html

President Donald Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and other administration officials attended the conference, though the ACU says the attendee did not come into contact with the president or vice president, nor did they attend events in the main hall. When asked by reporters if he was worried about being exposed to coronavirus after he attended CPAC, Trump said, "I'm not concerned at all." Trump, who was speaking alongside Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro ahead of their dinner at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, also noted that the administration would not cancel any political rallies as the virus spreads. "We'll have tremendous rallies. We're doing very well. We've done a fantastic job, with respect to that subject, on the virus," Trump said. www.cnn.com Well, I guess we’re now in a situation where potentially 20+ died in this hotel/quarantine center collapse overnight here in China, so the focus will temporarily shift back to China and shoddy safety/construction standards. Of course, there will probably be a coverup if that’s the case, just like a couple of high profile incidents/accidents with the high speed train network.

https://www.seattlepi.com/coronavirus/article/Kent-to-file-restraining-order-against-King-15112086.php https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/coronavirus-testing-failure-123166

If you don’t know how many are infected, and who, how the heck are they going to control the spread? As the city of Wuhan looks to possibly reopen in April, there’s likely to be a “passcode” system through mobile phone apps to identify all those who are symptom free for at least two weeks before re/entering the city. South Korea and China both have numerous apps that can track in real time the cases around you, proximity, everyone traveling in and out by train/bus/plane that has a fever, etc. Here, it’s almost impossible now to have what amounts to a burner phone, as everyone has their cell number connected to their national ID...which allows to government to exert more control but that tracking ability also comes in handy at a time like this. Of course, as with any tech, there’s always going to be false positives or people who aren’t cleared due to an algorithm that should be more precise...but at least there’s an appeals process in place. Strange that my co-workers who left China to places like Thailand, US, UK and Vietnam are likely to be caught up in another two week quarantine situation now coming back in. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3074087/never-mind-china-look-us-next-big-coronavirus

https://deadline.com/2020/03/sxsw-no-insurance-for-disease-outbreaks-1202876689/

That’s exactly what happened with the construction of two new hospitals here in +/- 10 days. To sequester those most serious cases as quickly as possible. The obvious problem is that the “medium/moderate” and worst case scenarios leave our medical facilities woefully short in terms of equipment, beds and access to test kits. And the average person here with the virus went through something like 4-6 tests on average.

The big difference is roughly five million out of an eleven million population left Wuhan (for Chinese New Year) from the end of December through the morning of January 23rd on planes, trains (Hankou Railway Station is literally 200 meters from the Huashan Animal market epicenter) and buses. That was a huge factor. They also held a public banquet on the 18th of January with over 40,000 attendees and 12,000+ shared dishes...trying to set a world record locally when Beijing already was well aware of the outbreak but didn’t want to create a public panic before the holidays. Now it just came out that 19 crew members and two passengers out of the 46 they tested have the virus. Only 3700 on board...that all have to be tested before they can disembark. The problem is that 1/4th to 1/3rd of those people who pass the initial test...if this follows the trend...will end up developing and/or passing along the virus to others. https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-06/chaos-at-hospitals-due-to-shortage-of-coronavirus-tests This pretty much encapsulates the width and breadth of the problem, and frustrations on the part of patients, doctors and nurses alike.

There was a lot of pushback on both sides of that SXSW argument. Until they have enough test kits distributed, we won’t know the full effect...and, even then, many people will be asymptomatic carriers/spreaders but not tested or reflected in the numbers. What about all the people who are sick but underinsured and afraid of hospitalization costs that definitely aren’t going to be covered? One of the nursing home deaths in Kirkland isn’t reflected because she hadn’t been tested and the daughter wanted to have it done posthumously. We had/have many deaths here in China that weren’t reflected in official stats but go down as pneumonia or flu instead. As of last night, nobody inside that center...staff or residents, had been tested. You’ve also got another yet cruise ship issue. Right now, the death rate seems abnormally high compared to even Wuhan (3-4%) because not enough testing has been done yet....so those denominator numbers are lower in the formula. But, as mentioned above, they’re already missing some of the deaths in the very beginning stages as well. Just in that two medical screeners at LAX have come down with the virus, which is also very scary in terms of community spread ramifications. Finally, there’s lots of anecdotal evidence here that people can get sick twice...many of the released/recovered individuals still are unable to go home, or are even bring refused by their families who don’t believe or trust the doctors that their previously ill grandparents can return without getting children and grandchildren sick as a result.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/06/anthony-fauci-millions-of-tests-coronavirus-town-hall-sot-vpx.cnn Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, says there were missteps in regards to the CDC's initials tests for coronavirus and that he believes "millions and millions of tests" will be needed. Source: CNN https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/05/coronavirus-drug-industry-prices-122412

Someone is $5 million off...

Over the past year, general manager Rick Hahn has pushed back on the idea that the White Sox should consider all baseball decisions with the view that at the end of the 2023 season, Yoán Moncada would potentially walk out the door and drag their contention window shut on his way out. On Thursday, the Sox and Moncada eliminated that possibility entirely by agreeing to a five-year contract extension with a club option for the 2025 season, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The deal is for $70 million and the club option could bring the total to $90 million. The Sox now potentially have contractual control of Moncada through the next six seasons, at the end of which he would be 30 years old. Who knows how high the oceans will be by then. https://theathletic.com/1657284/2020/03/05/white-sox-extend-yoan-moncada-lock-up-yet-another-member-of-the-core/ This was the original story, attributed to Ken Rosenthal, that is/was off by just $5 million on the option year.

The Chicago White Sox have agreed to a five-year extension with third baseman Yoan Moncada worth $70 million, a source confirmed to ESPN on Thursday. The contract includes a sixth-year club option worth $25 million and includes a $5 million buyout. It also buys out two years of Moncada's free agency. So 6/$95 or 5/$75 (including buyout). Story credits The Athletic with having the story first. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28845150/sources-white-sox-yoan-moncada-reach-5-year-70m-extension