caulfield12

A reporter quickly picked up on this because they seemed afraid to say it aloud. The chart actually said 200-240,000 on the high end, with a potential or anticipated 10-15 more NY/NJ situations popping up in major metropolitan areas, moving from east to west. Interestingly, VA and DC were 45 days out for peak. CA around May 1st. Even at the epicenter in NYC, the expert projections (five total) range from 7-21 days with 14 being the average for hitting the peak right around Easter Sunday or the first couple of days afterward.

Sure, but just trying to put some scope or scale to the overall numbers. Invariably, someone will then bring up the common flu, automobile accidents, etc. The biggest point that differentiates this is we’re potentially talking about 100,000+ lives a matter of 2-3 months, versus the course of a full year, with overwhelmed health care system and no vaccine or cure. That’s the reality.

They would use coordinated cyberwarfare to confuse coordination efforts, sabotaging the food and/or water supply with the virus and attempting to sabotage the power grid/internet and cell connectivity. Of course, were they to get caught red-handed...they’d end up in pariah state status, lose trade agreements, military partnerships and undo all the money/loans spent over the past 5-6 years on the various Belt & Road Initiatives. Why risk all that when many strategists inside China believe America is heading in the direction of eventually falling apart on its own? We still can’t figure out whether to conserve masks or not. In the case of Asians, many feel safer...regardless of the optics, it provides a sense of reassurance. My wife was on the Wuhan subway the last two days...someone sneezed a couple of times and everyone emptied the car in both directions attempting to get away. We just bumped up the definition of “success” with Covid-19 to up to 200-240,000 deaths (on the upper end) even with active mitigation/suppression. NY and NJ are definitely the outliers, so far, but showing all the data aggregated like this isn’t capturing how many are a week away from exploding into new clusters. Like New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, Miami, etc. ”No magic vaccines or therapies.” Dr. Birx

Here comes another task force meeting/campaign rally/expressions of appreciation from everyone who gets to speak other than Dr. Fauci. We’ve passed 9/11, Pearl Harbor and the Titanic. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/politics/red-states-blue-cities-coronavirus/index.html Just not sure how the mayors and governors and Federal government can possibly find a way to resolve these simmering disputes unless the push comes from the President to overrule 5 GOP governors (five already going against admin and making their own decisions.) https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html Scientific community starts pushing back on 12-18 month timeframe for vaccine.

CNN’s Chris Cuomo has the virus. His brother’s doing so well with this now, he might be traveling westward across the country as it moves, bringing experts and an army of medical volunteers and ventilators with him. I think if I was with the Biden campaign I’d think long and hard about tying into these efforts, because he’s becoming more and more irrelevant by the day. Of course, he can just wait this out for 2-3 months and suddenly reappear on the scene, but he’s got to prove his mettle here somehow. Just criticizing Trump decisions or unpreparedness doesn’t do it anymore. They need to be presenting solutions from the top of their campaign, like Ron Klain. It’s a delicate balance because of his age, but his endurance/stamina and mental acuity have come under assault, and remaining in a Delaware bunker for months isn’t going to cut it.

Follow the science. Whether the Spanish Flu or MERS or Ebola/Marburg or Swine Flu, there’s a logical reason. The Chinese government tried to kill their own people to create plausible deniability, then successfully forecasted Trump would somehow botch it up? That’s quite the crystal ball. There was one Chinese woman on the island of Palau five years ago making a Youtube video about bat soup, and somehow 1.5 billion are now bat soup connoisseurs. I guess if it helps you to sleep at night, we can all believe whatever provides us comfort and reassurance.

She has been doing that for years and years. This is not news. Anymore so than going to caves near Lake Victoria, southern Sudan and the Congo will inform us about Ebola and Marburg TODAY. What do you suggest, killing all bats in the world...and closing caves? What about all the insects they eat, and the resulting imbalance in nature that will create? China has more than it’s fair share of blame, no matter how much PPE they donate/loan/sell to Europe. There’s been a 96% genetic sequencing match, but still not 100%. Until this day they don’t know the secondary transmitter, although it’s still suspected to be pangolins by most scientific experts. It has nothing to do with virology labs, mysterious government bacterial warfare programs, etc. Even C-SPAN listeners were getting into the act, asserting it was deliberated released in China to eventually penetrate the US and wipe out older Republican Trump voters, clearing the way for a return of globalization/neoliberalism under Biden, with open borders, free trade agreements and all guns confiscated from the populace. Sigh.

The Outsider is solid...just finished about three weeks ago. Never been a huge Ben Mendelsohn fan before this one, but Cynthia Erivo really brings a supernatural edge to the proceedings.

Krakauer books are a worthwhile read, as well. Kingdom of God, but the one on Everest (Into Thin Air) and Into the Wild continues to be a classic. Three Cups of Deceit if you are interested in non-profit. All the Michael Lewis books are pretty great too, although some might feel a bit dated today. Bad Blood if interested in business, or the new Picketty on Economics.

Have you read In the Garden of Beasts? All the Shaara books on the Civil War, or McPherson? New Doris Kearns Goodwin on George Washington?

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/trump-blames-hospitals-for-coronavirus-mask-shortages.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/us/maine-coronavirus-forced-quarantine-trnd/index.html CNN)A Maine man said armed neighbors descended on his home and chopped down a tree to block his road and prevent him from leaving because they believed he may have coronavirus. The Vinalhaven resident said he went outside Friday to check why his cable service wasn't working and found a tree blocking the end of his road, according to the Knox County Sheriff's Office. "While investigating the downed tree, a neighbor started yelling at him and a group of people showed up and began to gather around. Believing the group may be there to harm him, (he) fled to his residence and told his roommates what he had found," the sheriff's office said on Facebook.

Well, we’ve now gone from reopening on Easter Sunday to the end of April. Today, finally, the recognition of 1.6-2.2 million death projection models at the high end, to the point where “just” 100-200,000 deaths is seemingly going to be considered a victory. CNN has taken the additional step of fact-checking now in real time...never imagined it would come to this. That said...sheer numbers of tests versus number of tests per capita are two quite distinct numbers. But to look at those heat maps of the country and jump to the conclusion 60-70% of the counties innthe middle of the country are basically safe when no extensive testing has really been done there yet doesn’t make much sense of a reasonable conclusion, either.

This is the same justification for Paris Hilton, the reality t.v. explosion and the Kardashians/Jenners all being billionaires or close to it. Or Instagram influencers. Kids earning $100 million for their parents opening toys on YouTube before the ripe ‘ol age of ten. Afaiac, “Tiger King/Joe Exotic” ran for President and OK governor and he’s ALMOST interchangeable with Trump.

I don’t doubt Biden has a 3-5 point lead, nationally. But it still comes down to those same 8-10 battleground states. GOP, at least for now...has a significant enthusiasm advantage on their side. Dems have demographics. I am not sure how many, though...are 100% confident he’s up to the job, or not more concerned about the VP choice. They believe or hope he will partially restore America’s position internationally, stabilize markets, not rock the boat and bring in experts to surround himself with. That said, with depressed turnout possible due to coronavirus concerns lingering, enthusiasm does matter. Don’t underestimate Trump in the debates, either. Biden stumbles when under heavy duress or ad libbing. When Trump does that, it’s refreshing candor and sticking it to the man or any party you project a particular grievance upon.

My bar is set pretty low these days. Can speak authoritatively without a teleprompter and at least project empathy and a sense of unity? Probably the same reason that aspects of Buttigieg appealed to me, being able to openly discuss faith and religion...because there are millions that seek comfort and reassurance there.

https://story.californiasunday.com/katie-porter-congress Maybe one positive is that more “everyday” people will run, such as this single mother of three, who won election in Orange County. Of course, she did attend two of the most elite academic institutions in the US. And you might be right, the enthusiasm gap (highly motivated to support) is roughly 30 points between Trump and Biden...similar to 2016. That’s a bit misleading. Because there are three plus years of track record now AND nobody will be as unpopular as HRC in 2015-16. Fwiw, Andrew Cuomo’s overall approval numbers in NYC are similar to Trump’s on a national basis, yet he might have won the Democratic primary had it started today instead of 18 months ago. And would likely be leading Trump by larger margins, whereas Biden is essentially tied one month into this crisis that has now made him almost irrelevant.

Day 67 of full lockdown in Wuhan. The last one, actually (unfortunately, I have to wait at least until April 8th as a foreigner whose school is still closed). Days since going outside, 70. Limited opening of major shopping malls, but only from 10-5 p.m. Metro/subway reopened on Saturday, but only if you have three permissions on your phone (from local government and your employer/HR Dept.) Still temperature checks and masks for everyone. Airport fully reopening on April 8th (next WED). Most employers bringing back workers this morning. Schools out since the middle of January (semester exams) still looking at late April or early May restarts, so essentially out 3 1/2 and likely closer to four months for kindergarten and primary/elementary. Still no public taxis. Limited bus routes. Happiest thing to look forward to tonight is first pizzas from Pizza Hut (I know, not close to the best pies!) since January...if she can succeed in bringing them back (open for business, but no carryout, just delivery) on the subway. Keep in mind, this is TOTAL lockdown/martial law, not social distancing. Also, not sure how we can trust the numbers coming out of Russia, India, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia, either. The latter three have/had an agenda or ulterior motive to protect tourism dollars as long as possible. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/coronavirus-deaths-cases-anthony-fauci-cnntv/index.html Don’t think the President is going to be too happy with Dr. Fauci throwing out any six figure mortality projections, even in a worst-case scenario. Maybe in a morbid sense, these two polar opposites of blissful ignorance and Dr. Doom are also contributing to the “ratings.” That and the facts that sports and new movies have been pretty much wiped out. One positive might be more people turning (back to) reading, including younger people? Or are they just doing more gaming?

A Singaporean had his passport canceled for breaking quarantine. And speaking of things we’ll never see in the US: Draconian measures: Singapore has introduced new laws governing social distancing during the coronavirus outbreak that could see offenders serve six months in jail. Those who do not keep at least 1 meter (3.2 feet) apart, or who meet in groups of more than 10 people outside of work or school, could face a fine of up to 10,000 Singapore dollars ($7,000) and/or up to six months' imprisonment. source: cnn.com

UEFA Champions League looking at mid May, early June and late June starts. Anything extending into July, the season is probably wiped out for 2020. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/clayton-kershaw-says-possible-december-world-series-would-be-a-little-risky-204321895.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/ Best article since this whole thing started. Worth 22 minutes of time, for sure. As far as China, we can double or even triple the numbers to 10000 dead and 250,000 infected, it still doesn’t change the basic facts on the ground around the world. Government control and quick decision making can be a huge strength, but the weaknesses in such a system are patently obvious as well now. Even today, the government would rather go back to coal (cheapest), loosen the money spigots and spend money on dubious infrastructure projects instead of putting it back into peoples’ pockets. In China, they have never really trusted the people to make their own decisions, and now there’s a painful contradiction when the inefficient state operated industries receive loan supports/guarantees to keep more workers employed and the real drivers of the economy, small and medium sized enterprises, are left dangling in the wind.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/a-global-consumer-default-wave-is-just-getting-started-in-china

This is where the “what about” automobile deaths argument comes in, what about the common flu, deaths due to assault guns or pesticides or eating too much junk food/obesity or climate change...why is this life and death when those other issues are never addressed by Congress like they are also clear and present dangers? We can’t agree that it is a problem when 25-30% of Americans don’t have health insurance or are underinsured? After that, well, another large percentage believes illegal immigrants paying taxes should get no assistance, no govnt checks and no COVID tests even if they might be endangering the rest of the country. What about homeless people? People in prisons? The virus is tearing right through these two groups right now with no end in sight. What extremes are we willing to go to when there’s no public consensus on anything? Even when there is, let’s say on limits to assault weapons, we still have no choice but the status quo or what, violent revolution against the govnt? In the end, we have to deal with the macro picture here at this stage...testing testing testing....innovating to develop creative solutions on the beds and respirator/ventilators, such as splitting to double existing capacity, innovating innovating innovating to find a vaccine ASAP. The rest is just noise, politicians, statistics. Or we can create a Chinese system for turning on your neighbors, getting rewarded financially for turning those who are sick or not following the rules into the police. Turn yourself in, get money. We can round up anyone with a NY license plate and imprison them, too. But is that really the United States anymore?

I don’t imagine wooden picnic tables in the park will be anyone’s undoing. Touching your face/eyes, then others...any surface in bathrooms, anything metal on the subway or L, coughing or sneezing without protecting those around you, repetitive hand washing with soap. We’re months into this and there’s still a raging debate about the efficacy of various masks...whether they only help prevent spread but are unlikely to stop you from getting sick when in proximity to someone else. It’s like safe sex, the only method guaranteed is abstinence. The only surefire way is to stay inside 100% of the time. But that’s just not practical in America. There’s not a practical delivery/logistics system to get food out to every house like here where you have 1.4 billion people and hundred thousands willing to drive mopeds/scooters around and earn $0.75-1.50 prr delivery with no tipping allowed. Completely different cultures, and levels of obedience/freedom/individual rights. We don’t allow any guns here, only police in military. A court in CA is going to be exposed to danger adjudicating the NRA gun shops as essential services, or OK and other states whether abortion services can be curtailed during a national emergency. No such issues here. No guns. Abortions always available due to family planning policies in place since the 70’s, not that any woman would want to deal with such a situation where she would have a decent probability of getting sick just going to wait in line at the hospital.

UK is also learning this the hard way with so many government officials, royal family, etc., now getting sick everyday. Hubris. Thinking your instincts or gut are better indicators than scientific evidence. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/opinions/stimulus-bill-tax-break-for-1-mccaffery/index.html Under the new change, our rich taxpayer couple -- and this applies only for individuals, not corporations -- can now deduct an unlimited amount of "excess losses" in real estate against income from other sources. So now real estate moguls with lucrative day jobs or bountiful capital gains from other investments can go back to living tax-free, the Kushner way, before limits were put in place as part of the 2017 tax reform bill. It gets worse, if that's possible. The change applies to this year -- and retroactively to 2019 and 2018. This means rich people can file amended returns now, and get refunds of perhaps millions of dollars, sooner than we can produce the number of ventilators we might need for the coronavirus crisis. Let's pause for a moment to review: The new relief provision only benefits those who can list more than $500,000 in excess business losses -- typically artificial losses from depreciation that have more than wiped out their business income on paper -- AND more than $500,000 in other income from wages or other sources now that the cap on the tax break has been removed. Pity such people in a time of pandemic? Congress did.

If you have travelled around the world, that is the everyday situation in many 2nd/3rd world or developing countries. Kind of makes you appreciate what we for decades haven taken for granted as the “American way of life,” at least up until now.