caulfield12

Yep, leg room, too. That’s the biggest to me...especially international flights.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-uk-model-study/index.html (CNN)A study by UK epidemiologists predicts that attempts to slow, or mitigate -- rather than actively halt, or suppress -- the novel coronavirus could overwhelm the number of intensive care hospital beds and lead to about 250,000 deaths in the UK and more than a million in the United States during the course of the current pandemic. They also predicted very early in January 100-150,000 cases in China, which probably would have happened if not for the full lockdown.

Boeing is the first priority to save. Airlines already asking for a $54-58 billion bailout. They are going to have to let American Airlines fail. Southwest has bought back a ton of stock as well, but they’re one of the best bets to thrive again. That would basically leave Delta and United. First, some context. Please understand that times are tough for us, too. Lots of us are getting hammered. Also, two years ago, our government enacted a corporate tax cut that saved you and other US companies hundreds of billions of dollars. This tax cut benefited you and your shareholders, but it also ballooned our annual government deficit to more than $1 trillion a year. With the coronavirus now plunging our economy into recession, our tax revenue will tank, and our deficit will skyrocket even more, perhaps to $2 trillion or $3 trillion per year. So we're not as flush as we should have been. Second, over the past decade, you raked in tens of billions of dollars of profit and, instead of saving it, gave it to your shareholders. As you know well — and as you point out in your financial filings — your business is cyclical. So cyclical, in fact, that many of you have already gone bankrupt in the past. So you could have saved this cash for a rainy day. But you didn't. Instead, according to Bloomberg, you used a startling 96% of your cash flow to buy back your own stock. The buybacks of one of your members alone, American Airlines, totaled more than $15 billion in the past six years. ($15 billion! American, if you had just kept that cash, you might not need a bailout!) Third, although the coronavirus pandemic is bad luck, it was not unforeseeable. In fact, at least one of your members, American Airlines, explicitly foresaw it. In recent financial filings, American cited "outbreaks of diseases that affect travel behavior" as a major risk to its business. https://news.yahoo.com/okay-airlines-bailout-terms-131607340.html You guys can pick the winners and losers from the rest...I can only say Spirit and Frontier suck. Southwest Airlines – 20% (132,251,331 passengers) Delta Air Lines – 16% (106,062,211 passengers) American Airlines – 15% (99,857,863 passengers) United Airlines – 11% (71,722,425 passengers) SkyWest Airlines – 5% (31,257,149 passengers) JetBlue Airways – 4% (28,406,310 passengers) Alaska Airlines – 4% (26,273,073 passengers) Spirit Airlines – 3% (21,863,935 passengers) Frontier Airlines – 2% (15,527,410 passengers) Republic Airline (operates as American Eagle, Delta Connection, and United Express) – 2% (14,728,265 passengers)

Season now postponed indefinitely...

Thanks for sharing! https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/what-matters-march-16/index.html Millennials -- In particular, Dr. Deborah Birx, the coronavirus task force coordinator, appealed to millennials, telling the largest current generation of Americans that they need to shield older generations more susceptible to the virus. "We now need to appeal to every single American so that they can have their role in stopping this virus," she said, before singling out millennials as the "core group who can stop this virus" by avoiding public contact. A history of sacrifice -- Americans were called on to serve and work in the national interest when the country mobilized for the war effort in World War II. Americans turned against service in Vietnam when the cost became too great. More recently, after 9/11, they were asked to go out and buy things to prop up a flailing economy. They're not asked to do much anymore. But now, with a global pandemic threatening older Americans, fighting the enemy requires a collective isolation from generations that have social hard-wired into their DNA. "We've always heard about the Greatest Generation," Birx said. "We're protecting the Greatest Generation right now and the children of the Greatest Generation." (Yes, that would be the boomers, of which Birx is one.) https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html Informative article, really puts it all in proper perspective when comparing Italy and South Korea with well-researched supporting details. By contrast, the outbreak in South Korea has occurred among much younger people. There, only 20% of cases have been diagnosed in those 60 years old and up. The largest affected group is those in their 20s, who account for almost 30% of all cases. Then there is gender. The gender split in COVID-19 cases worldwide is about 50-50, but there are gender differences in survival. According to data from the original outbreak in China, the overall death rate is 4.7% in men versus 2.8% in women -- a whopping difference. Which is good news for South Korea, where 62% of cases occur among women. Smoking is another factor clearly associated with poor survival. Smoking rates are about the same between the two countries: 24% for Italians and 27% for South Koreans. But gender differences among smokers are widely different: In Italy, 28% of men versus 20% of women smoke, while in Korea, it is about 50% of men and less than 5% (!) of women. ..... In other words, South Korea has an outbreak among youngish, non-smoking women, whereas Italy's disease is occurring among the old and the very old, many of whom are smokers. (We do not know the male-female breakdown of Italy's cases). These basic demographic distinctions explain the difference in death rates between these two hard-hit countries -- as well as helping to explain why Seattle, with its nursing home outbreak, accounts for such a large proportion of US coronavirus deaths. To understand exactly what is happening, we need daily case updates to include information about age and sex. The blundering lack of an effective testing program in the US is an unconscionable failure and has led (and will lead) to more transmission of COVID-19. But it is important to recognize that survival with the infection is a completely other matter, one that will require very different investments, training, and expertise.

The Hunt was disappointing....wait on that one, if the theatres ever open again. Joking, I hope. Buckle up for the next 2-4 months, it’s going to get bumpy for the entertainment industry as well, in terms of creating new content. On the plus side, we have a lot to look forward to...when things eventually get released in the summer/fall.

Goldman called for -41%. Peak of 2008-09 was -57%. In the end, endless you desperately need the cash now...it’s suicide to take it out. Where do you put it? Not in bonds...they could be even riskier, depending on winners and losers in the bailout. Gold? Real estate, perhaps. Lots of high dividend stocks will cut back there, especially energy and even banks. Back to the so-called Admiral stocks...the proven, diversified companies that would be trucking along without the virus but are getting stung along with the rest of the market by index funds. Not all individual stocks are created equal. Johnson & Johnson, for example. Wal-Mart. Don’t overthink it.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797 This is the best article I have read so far about where we could have been...with this particular pandemic in the US. Politico has always been fair and balanced about covering both sides from an especially harsh lens, the anti C-SPAN. Hopefully, the model in the future continues to be the presidential turnover from Bush to Clinton, but just have a feeling the next one won’t go easily, either. Probably much better with Biden, than Sanders...if that’s the outcome (yes, just four weeks ago it would have been 500,000 to one odds in Las Vegas.) We’ll never know had they taken this seriously...or had the pandemic response team not been disbanded/folded into NSC...but having Tom Bossert and Dr. Tim Ziemer and Lisa Monaco NOT around has hurt. It has also shown the limitations of what even private foundations like Gates can do in times like this. People look to government for reassurance and a trustworthy safety net. End of politics for today...continue on.

The Dems are so effective we got Merrick Garland blocked, lost the Senate/House to the Tea Party, lost most state legislatures, lost the ability to draw districts/gerrymandering, lost control of spending on elections (Citizens United), lost the Senate to a decade of obstructionism of Mitch McConnell, lost an impossible election to lose (2016), lost the unions, lost the battle over patriotism, lost the bond with religious groups over the fight for peace/social justice, lost the fight over gun control, messed up the Occupy movement, managed to get the socialism label attached to policies that are commonplace or taken for granted on health care and the environment in Europe, lost the health care battle from 1993 to 2009/10...and still can’t unify young people and Hispanics behind its presidential candidate. The list goes on and on. It’s no surprise than only 40% of Republicans believe the coronavirus is real. They are much more effective at messaging, staying unified around core issues...and scaring people, essentially. No compromising, killer mentality. We do have safe spaces, correct approaches to gender pronouns and the #metoomovement. I jest. But basically, we suck, lol.

That’s the bizarre thing about being a parent today. I’m 50 and have been teaching for about twenty years and see doing it for about five more years...online classes can certainly replace in person, and advising students on their university essays can be done from anywhere. But my son just turned five (no part or cake or gifts in middle of quarantine)...and I have no idea if STEM is the obvious path for him, particularly computer science and AI/data & quantitative analysis. Part of me believes a return to classics education...critical thinking, innovation, creativity...is key, which is essentially STEAM, arts/creativity combined with Science, Technology, Engineering and Math. Let’s say you are an architect. You can give the computer parameters for a design...it spits out 1000 possibilities, but the human brings value-added perspective to choose and enhance/improve upon the computer choices. Collaboration/cooperation, in other words. Don’t train for any career that can be wiped out in the next 10-15 years by AI/quantum computing. No easy answers. I’d suggest reading Homo Deus...if you have free time for reading coming up. Another I’ve been reading recently is the Three Body Problem trilogy.

Could likely be the two different strains....what are being defined as L and S, one more deadly (3-5%), one much more contagious, less deadly (0.5-1.5%?). My guess is Wuhan and China sent more directly to Italy...because of our connections through fashion/textiles, travel/tourism, car manufacturing, education, etc. Italy also has more multi generation families stuck all together in one house or apartment...like here in China. US has that major advantage, at least. Seems in the US we’re running at 1.6-2.0% mortality rate, but who really knows? Not the CDC or HHS. https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2020/3/5/21166249/coronavirus-outbreak-second-strain-l-s

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/economy/job-losses-coronavirus/index.html More than half of US jobs at risk Nearly 80 million jobs in the US economy are at high or moderate risk today, according to analysis in the last week from Moody's Analytics. That's more than half of the 153 million jobs in the economy overall. That doesn't mean that all those jobs will be lost. But it's probable that as many as 10 million of those workers could see some impact to their paychecks -- either layoffs, furloughs, fewer hours or wage cuts, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Of those 80 million jobs, Moody's Analytics projects that 27 million are at high risk due to the virus, primarily in transportation and travel, leisure and hospitality, temporary help services and oil drilling and extraction. Maybe 20% of those workers, comprising about 5 million jobs, will be affected, Zandi said. The other 52 million jobs are judged to face "moderate risk." They are in areas such as retail, manufacturing, construction and education. Some 5 million of those workers are could be unemployed or underemployed. Andrew Yang was years ahead of his time...unfortunately, we can’t start a worker retraining program in-person yet, but the framework can be created with online classes and personalized counseling.

We didn’t stop flights until around January 23rd...when the city and eventually 60+ million in the province (similar to Italy) was locked down. One of the biggest problems is/was the proximity of wild animal wet market....just hundreds of meters from Hankou Train Station, which was putting all those carriers on trains across China for roughly 6-8 weeks. Out of a population of roughly 11 million, 5 million left the city during that time frame (largely workers from other regions of China returning for Chinese New Year’s holiday and university students, we have two million here.)

Right, but that’s the kind of sport where you can’t just have kids waiting for 2-3 months and playing again when it was already the end of the season...plus you have to think about exams, that the athletes are not getting paid, pre-set semester schedules, etc. The Masters seemed more realistic, but they care so much about the patron experience down there.

A former classmate who works for US Embassy posted this at FB Social Distancing versus “It’s just” “I’ll just pop in” “It’s just a quick run to Starbucks” “It’s just one beer with a few friends” “It’s just for the kids, they’re so bored” One of the daily battles for those of us stuck at home, and perhaps especially those with independent teenagers trying to navigate a new, temporary reality, is the need to resist the temptations of the “it’s just” rationalization that would justify some form of social gathering. “It’s just” is an understandable bit of mental gymnastics for a culture built on ideas of individual freedom. But it’s also a convenient way to wriggle out of a new and broad social responsibility for all of us. “It’s just” essentially says that social distancing is for other people, but not me. The hard thing right now is that “It’s just” facilitates otherwise avoidable instances of unintended virus transmission. Let’s have that uncomfortable talk with our teenagers about what social distancing means in real terms, set some appropriate expectations, and get used to saying a word my own parents (as old friends will happily attest) were quite fond of: “no”. Yes, I will take fire for this from some quarters. But experience is a harsh teacher, and I’d rather put my experience of 20+ years in and out of Asia and the Middle East, through the original bird flu, red tides, SARS and MERS, to some kind of service than just sit back and observe while the US still has a chance at outcomes more like Taiwan than Italy.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that a White House staffer called to yell at him after he complained about the long lines at O'Hare airport. "They should have increased the Customs and Border Patrol numbers. And they should have increased the number of CDC personnel on the ground doing those checks. They did neither of those," the Democratic governor said. Probably not the best way to get the governors and Federal govn’t working together...or calling them ”snakes.” cnn.com Still in quarantine until at least Friday. That would mark 8 weeks, 2 days...58 days in total under lockdown. IF it’s actually lifted on Friday. Could also be 23rd/24th, next week...next Mon or Tuesday. Going by polling, if the split is 70% of Dems and 40% of Republicans (actually changing their behaviors due to the virus) and we can guess roughly 55% of independents are actually taking this seriously, that means roughly 140-150 million Americans are likely to get the rest of us sick, at some point.

22 min ago More than half of coronavirus cases in France under intensive care are below the age of 60 More than half of France's 300 coronavirus patients in intensive care are under the age of 60, according to the head of the country's national health agency. “We have counted this evening 300 serious cases in intensive care. We have serious cases also amid adults and let me remind you that more than 50% of people in intensive care are under 60," Jerome Salomon said at a news conference on Saturday. Salomon did not specify the age range of those under 60. www.cnn.com

Pretty low likelihood...you’d see the NBA and NHL cancelling their postseasons first. How likely is that?

That’s pretty clearly a reaction to CDC warning about gatherings of 50 or more through May 15. 2-3 weeks to ramp up beginning sometime in the first week of May or last week of April.

Whereas the flights out of here had 14 passengers sequestered and everyone in hazmat suits...including flight attendants. Fwiw, I also think some of the mortality rates vs. death rates are demonstrating such radical differences, the L&S strains as exhibited below. Of course, simple geographic proximity would argue that South Korea and SE Asia should have faced the worst strains...but there are so many connections between Wuhan and northern Italy (textiles, fashion, tourism, auto industry) it’s impossible to believe they didn’t get the worst of it, as well. You can now clearly see that simply by examining how many people under age 50 are getting sick all across Europe. https://www.timesnownews.com/health/article/coronavirus-has-two-strains-l-type-more-aggressive-and-contagious-than-s-type-says-study/561144

CDC warning/recommending no gatherings of 50 or more for two months...only exceptions are schools and businesses. MLB will be lucky to get started the first or second week of June. I guess they could attempt to run closed spring training around the end of April and rolling into mid-May, but it’s going to be impossible to make up a full six weeks of missed games. 22% of the season. 35-40 games.

While we’re rightfully criticizing the UK, the crazy thing is they’ve already tested over 40,000 in UK...still way ahead of US testing rates as a percentage of population. Italy already is at 60% of the deaths we have had here in China from December through mid-March. Spain, UK and France set single-day records. About the only positive is Germany, so far. Every Briton over the age of 70 will be told "within the coming weeks" to stay at home for an extended period to protect themselves from coronavirus. When it happens, they will be asked to stay home for "a very long time", Health Secretary Matt Hancock said. The government is to release social distancing advice for elderly people on Monday - but they will not yet be asked to self-isolate for long periods. Fourteen more people have died from the virus, bringing deaths in the UK to 35. Mr Hancock told the BBC that manufacturers were being asked to help produce medical equipment, such as ventilators, to help with an expected surge in demand by the NHS. He also said hotels could be converted into makeshift hospitals, while the government has begun negotiating with private healthcare providers to obtain thousands of extra beds in private hospitals. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51895873 Corona simulator...how to flatten the curve https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid=IwAR3rux4ateUQghTfQWMLdxY1bgesNfRkMa74WWhNpR2Zl9Xwt78Nh8CLHRg

https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-response-herd-immunity-and-sars-cov-2 Herd immunity exists for flu. If large proportions of the population would get a flu vaccine that could protect non-immunised individuals. The problem with flu is that it is difficult to know which strains of flu (think of strains as variations on a theme: it is flu but just a little bit different) will be causing infections at any given point in time and so that is why the flu vaccine is not always 100% effective. The major problem with coronavirus is that this is a novel virus that has never spread before, which means that everyone is at risk for infection. Herd immunity can only be reached by widespread vaccination (but there is currently no vaccine, and it may take a long time before an effective vaccine becomes available) or by individuals falling ill and recovering thereby developing natural immunity against the virus. “Unfortunately, a very rough estimate suggests that we will only reach herd immunity to Covid-19 when approximately 60% of the population is immune (and remember that immunity is currently only reached by getting the infection as we have no vaccine!). The major downside is that this will mean that in the UK alone at least 36 million people will need to be infected and recover. It is almost impossible to predict what that will mean in terms of human costs but we are conservatively looking at 10,000s deaths, and possibly at 100,000s of deaths. https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comments-about-herd-immunity/ How, exactly, are they planning to precent NHS from getting completely overrun along the way...?

One of our former teachers living in the UK has it already now.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/politics/trump-jerome-powell-fed-rate-cut/index.html They’ve used all their remaining rate-cutting capital up in just a couple of weeks. As soon as leadership personally autographs and tweets out a chart of infections/deaths going down to zero...we’ll know that they’re actually taking this whole thing more seriously on the American health than the economics side. Because for 10/13 days of lows, we certainly weren’t getting anything but silence. While some will obviously refinance a house or borrow money for business expenses, it also has a corresponding negative impact on seniors/fixed income recipients. Futures down now over 1,000 points...this might turn out like that first Tuesday they cut 50 bps and the market reacted to it as a sign of panic, like the 10 year bond yields flatlining and the CBOE volatility index numbers spiking up into to 40’s and 50’s. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/traders-await-futures-open-after-fed-cuts-rates-launches-easing-program.html Circuit breaker hit again for the third or fourth time in six trading days... “The Fed blasted its monetary bazooka for sure,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “This better work because I don’t know what they have left and no amount of money raining from the sky will cure this virus. Only time and medicine will.” The Fed cut interest rates down to basically zero, their lowest level since 2015. The U.S. central bank also launched a massive $700 billion quantitative easing program. President Donald Trump said he was “very happy” with the announcement, adding: “I think that people in the markets should be very thrilled.”