caulfield12

Greinke has steadily been adjusting to pitching without his best fastball for the past 3-5 years. His breaking stuff more than compensates. There’s just zero guarantee that Strasburg could make the same type of adjustment to losing stuff or having a second TJ surgery. Greinke’s also a great defender, athlete and solid hitter...he’s figured out how to make it work for him. You put all that money into one of those guys and the entire rebuild is at risk if it goes south...even with insurance payments. Wheeler is three years younger and is going to get roughly half of Strasburg’s deal. You can at least survive that hit...but it might take Moncada or Giolito extensions off the table.

95% of the time trading trading non-elite relievers for position players backfires. Of course, every decade or so, we get a trade like Thornton for Borchard, except the Cubs aren’t going to take Fulmer in this case. Trading Bummer makes us shakier from the LH side, Colome ended on a downturn and we still need another solid RH reliever. The last thing you want to do with “almost there” young pitchers is blow all their leads with a poor bullpen and substandard defense. We saw that act enough the last 2-3 seasons.

But he can trust the White Sox to add frontline pitching? It’s not like we can guarantee Wheeler and all the other pieces it would take to make the Sox look like a solid bet in 2020 in advance. Based on track records, I can’t imagine the level of faith in the Boras camp runs all that high in terms of the Sox payroll being in the $145-150 million range it would take to really compete from April 1st. Just a hunch, but Texas somehow seems likelier opening a new stadium...but they’re supposedly only willing to spend $30 million in new money on top of last year’s payroll.

Apparently, one of the other points is how much he likes a Boston and went out of his way to go to Fenway as a teenager. Have a feeling he’ll feel he owes a fully healthy season to the Red Sox, with the belief they’re a lot closer to getting back to the a World Series in the next two seasons than other interested teams. Can the Twins or Indians afford him? Not really. Tampa is out. The Toronto surface would be hard on him. Difficult to imagine the Angels with Pujols and Ohtani. The Mariners really don’t make sense. Not many options. Rangers, if they want to keep Gallo off the field, maybe.

There aren’t many teams that can afford the services of J.D. Martinez. First off, he isn’t as good in the outfield as he is as an everyday American League DH. That means a lot of the National League teams will be out in the Martinez sweepstakes. The Chicago White Sox have been a team that has been rumored to be a fit. But, would Martinez want to go to a rebuilding team in the middle of his prime? My guess is probably not. If J.D. is smart, he’ll realize the options are limited and the Red Sox will continue to look better and better to come back to in 2020. He knows how talented the Red Sox are: Chris Sale, David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi…do I need to go on? This Red Sox team is extremely talented on paper and can make a run in 2020 if all goes well. Why J.D. Martinez would want to take a gamble on another team at this point is beyond me. You have all of this talent surrounding you and then, you would go to another team and start over again? That doesn’t make a lot of sense. Martinez knows how good this team can be, just look at 2018. Imagine how upset Martinez would be going from a potential 100 win team to a 70-80 win team? Yikes! https://www.believeinbostonsports.com/2019/10/31/will-j-d-martinez-opt-in-or-out/

To summarize: Cubs aren’t going to give away two suddenly important positional players, especially when they’re debuting a new t.v. network and coming off two massively disappointing seasons. Point 2, unless Hahn is willing to eat Heyward’s entire contract, they’re not getting Happ. Stiever’s value is being oversold, and it’s not worth much to a team in “must win now” mode, especially if they were to somehow lose the Bryant grievance. Point 3, we probably need Lopez ore than the Cubs do, unless they have the secret to turning him into high leverage reliever without a propensity to give up as many walks as Strop, Edwards Jr., and Kimbrel did. The comments were not from an article but a typical Cubs’ fan on one of their message boards.

Hinch said the agreement was for protecting a lead in the late innings...not sure how the 7th after the first homer didn’t qualify. Or why a 3-2 deficit with three at-bats left to go suddenly disqualified him from pitching.

Bummer, Dunning and Lopez would be the ask, but it still doesn’t make sense for the Cubs going into Marquee Network. With Zobrist gone and Russell on his very last legs...they need Happ and Schwarber more than ever. That doesn’t count the regression from Almora (a good hedge there would be JBJr) and covering predictable Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras injuries in terms of offensive impact. Finally, Bote took a step back as well. They can just go out and buy most of their needs with financial capital. Unless Hahn was dumb enough to take on Heyward’s contract to get one of those players included, but not both. Then they could keep Castellanos, sign JBJ and supplement their bullpen that was decimated by injuries and non-performance at the back end. So Bummer and Lopez for Heyward and Happ...OR just Bummer for Heyward and Schwarber, which would give the Cubs the flexibility to fix their most pressing issues/financial inflexibility with Castellanos, JBJ and 2-3 pitchers. "In Chicago, it’s just a mess. Chicago area Cable TV fans of the Bulls, Blackhawks and the Laundry (White Sox) are already paying NBC Sports Chicago a line item fee of nearly $9 for the service in their cable bill which used to include the Cubs. Do you know that small increase in your bill? Hmmmmm. Marquee wants to charge the same amount, $9, for dare I say, just the Chicago Cubs channel and it’s going to happen! " Feel like the Cubs will come in around $4.50-$6 if they’re smart, don’t see NBC Sports Chicago discounting their 3 team package by much, if anything. Unfortunately, the Bulls and Blackhawks are both down, so that removes their leverage...but so are the Cubs. It’s yet another argument for the White Sox not making incremental changes but spending $45-60 million instead of the expected/predicted $30 million (not including Abreu and raises/escalators.) We’ll find out soon enough who’s right. Old rumors. The Cubs are going to be charging $4 a month to cable companies and the NBC Sports price will come down as they have to negotiate all new cable deals without having the Cubs.

Derek Holland is available to the Sox as an innings eater once again...

Cowboy Joe West and Angel Hernandez, come on down!

This is definitely realistic, but about as inspiring as our last offseason if “Nova/innings eater” is our greatest need. They left out TOR starter, DH, RF, RH reliever...with 3 out of 4 being more critical than innings eater. 1B is the one glaring hole in the line-up? If this is what they’re spinning to media...Kopech, Collins, Robert and Madrigal + innings eater will take us to the next level, then it’s going to be almost more frustrating overall than last offseason to watch all those pieces come off the board again. https://theathletic.com/1341149/2019/11/01/the-biggest-needs-for-every-team-in-the-american-league/ Twins’ Targets: Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Odorizzi, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, Madison Bumgarner Indians’ Targets (2B): Jonathan Villar, Asdrúbal Cabrera, Jonathan Schoop, Starlin Castro White Sox Biggest Need: An innings eater The White Sox are still in the process of establishing some of their top prospects in the majors, with centerfielder Luis Robert and second baseman Nick Madrigal due to make their major league debuts early in 2020 and righty Michael Kopech now more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery and ready to return to the rotation. They made some progress on that front in 2019, however, and, as with the Blue Jays, there is now some expectation that their win totals will start to increase. There is reportedly mutual interest in keeping José Abreu on the South Side, which would plug the one glaring hole in the lineup while still leaving opportunity for catching prospect Zack Collins to get some extra at-bats via the first base and designated hitter. In terms of actual external upgrades, however, the Chisox would benefit from replacing free agent Iván Nova with a more effective veteran innings-eater who could take some of the burden off of the developing young arms in their rotation. Targets: Madison Bumgarner, Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark

Dickerson has zero reason to sign a multi-year deal unless there are tons of incentives to push the option year into the $10-12 million range...because nobody is going to be willing to guarantee him more than $7-9 million coming off an injury-plagued season like he just had.

Wheeler, Grandal, Moustakas, Dickerson and a bullpen arm... OR We roll the dice on Collins (removing the Grandal signing) and add another backend starting pitcher in Feb/March as well as someone that fits the Gennett/Schoop/Kendrick/Dozier profile...30-something player on a one year deal or one and an option year. We need more established veteran leadership with playoff experience IMO. Of course, that’s probably $60-70 million worth of new contracts for 2020...roughly doubling what most are expecting. Other than Wheeler though, none would be longer than two year deals....Grandal, maybe, would be 3-4 but I have a feeling they roll the dice with McCann and Collins instead.

I can understand Cole’s petulance. Like any great competitor, he undoubtedly believes that even though he’s almost never been used in relief his entire career...that he would have shut down the Nats in the 7th or at very worst kept it at a one run deficit with three more at-bats against a shaky pen at home.

Jim Thome managed to do pretty well until they foolishly let him go to the Twins...

Well, if the majority of the White Sox fanbase doesn’t even trust Collins to get regular at-bats on a rebuilding team, I’m not sure why one of the top 3-5 World Series contenders would. Unless our player development and/or talent assessment since the original Hostetler draft selection is THAT bad.

Apparently, he and Bauer hated each other when they pitched for UCLA, fwiw.

Moving Collins as basically a throw-in makes no sense. They already have Andujar, Voit, Bird and multiple catchers...with Gary Sanchez already being an offense first catcher. Unless they were paying $5-7 million of Happ’s salary, Hahn wouldn’t consider it...not without Tauchman. But we still shouldn’t sell low on Collins, and the Yankees don’t need him.

So, in the end...$100-115 million is the highest possible number Wheeler will go for...whereas Cole is at $250-280 million and Strasburg at $150-180 million. Someone below guesses $120-130 million. Also seems many Mets’ fans are counting on Nimmo returning to form in 2020, and Céspedes not sniffing the field. The scariest prediction on Wheeler, that he blossoms with the Astros and replaces Cole at less than half the price. OTOH, I guess doing that for the Twins would be even worse...because the White a Sox can hardly think about a World Series yet. Wheeler, JDM/Grandal, Moustakas and a RH reliever...get ‘er done!!! Go with a $5-8 million guy in RF for one year, utilizing the savings from Yolmer. Or a second/third tier starter who falls through the cracks and becomes undervalued. If they let Wheeler walk due to CBT reasons, then it'll just be reason 843 why the Wilpons should have been forced to sell the team years ago. Wheeler's potential contract is perfectly reasonable; he doesn't have nearly the mileage on his arm that most 29 year olds do, and if this is supposedly a win now team you don't let a starter of his quality walk because of the CBT in NY. It simply cannot happen. Mike F. Oct 22, 12:36pm 7 likes The stroman trade was all you needed to know.. he is the replacement for wheeler. I would bet that it’s a short terms savvy/equal value move for the Mets, but as usual instead of building from success and rolling with a better rotation all next season, they will pinch pennies, decry that wheeler may break down in a few years.... and watch stroman only make 20 starts... then blame injuries for another 85 win season. Watch him go to Atlanta and replace Dallas this offseason and help them win the division for the next few years....or replace Cole and win 20 For the astros Brian F. Oct 22, 12:44pm I think you're low on the contract forecast. He'll wind up with 5 for 120 or 6 for 130, something like that. At either level the Mets should be in, if they're not going after Rendon (which they wont despite that it would hurt one of their main rivals). If they pass on Wheeler then they need a veteran 5th starter so that Lockett is only the inevitable 6th starter that teams need (if not 7 or 8). If so, they must continue to build their offense and start by benching Cano. No one's talking about how fortunate they were with their offense: every player but Nimmo is likely to be worse in 2020. And that offense didnt sniff the top 5. If you want to be a playoff team you need to add a big bat.

https://theathletic.com/1306612/ Wheeler makes for an interesting free agent case, given that his production has almost exclusively occurred within the last two seasons. Wheeler has been worth 8.9 wins above replacement (according to FanGraphs) since the start of 2018 — a mark that aligns him with pitchers such as Patrick Corbin, Jon Lester and Johnny Cueto (along w/ Hamels, Cain, Zimmerman, Greinke) when they hit the open market. Pitchers who produced between eight and 10 wins above replacement over the two seasons prior to hitting free agency have averaged just less than $23 million per season in their next deal. Seven of the eight received nine-figure contracts. Another two comps here are CJ Wilson and Charlie Morton...with Cain, Zimmerman and Wilson arguably the three biggest disappointments. ... Shortening the contract probably does add a little bit to the average annual value. A deal for three years and $54 million or four years and $64 million would seem to make sense. Five years for $80 million — a deal signed seven winters ago by Aníbal Sánchez with statistics vaguely similar to Wheeler — isn’t out of the question.

Cano and the M’s would be an obvious exception. A-Rod and the Rangers, although any team acquiring him would have believed they were instant contenders because he was that dominating at the time.

Lux is a 2B by trade (200 games in the minors at SS, where they obviously have Seager and 60 at second base)...but they can also play Muncy, Hernandez and even Taylor there. And Taylor/Pollock both missed significant time last season. Pollock, btw.

Or being owned by The Billionaire Next Door instead of someone who runs his team like a fanboy/hobbyist (Illitch, Crane, Ricketts, Cuban, Lerner, Ballmer) who knows his team will appreciate in value by hundreds of millions no matter how much he loses on a yearly basis in the pursuit of a championship.

Except his defensive rankings for 40+ games were surprisingly solid. He would play more first after Madrigal arrives, Moncada will get hurt at least once or twice and there’s also DH and potentially a corner OF spot if he’s willing. That might be pushing it, as he’s more first step quick like a Crede than someone possessing the type of speed for even a corner. But that still gives him four realist spots out of nine.

That’s a lot closer to what Hahn would realistically part with. It does make sense, if they want to create space for Verdugo full time and save some money on their payroll for other areas of need, like the bullpen or back end of the rotation.