caulfield12

But what if Cole gets injured...never returns to normal but only gets an insurance subsidy of about 40-60% against one season that he misses with TJ surgery. Thinking something like a Matt Cain second half career here. Its fine if there was a near guarantee (like Betts) that he was going to put up 6 fWAR in 2020-21-22-23-24. How not to be skittish when contracts like Danks and Adam Dunn practically sunk the franchise without being over $68.5 million? This deal is going to be something like FOUR times that size.

Hopefully not an “A cute EE”...either.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-best-baseball-MLB-free-agents-2019-2020-14810780.php#photo-18415774 Astros’ writer has Wheeler at 4, projecting he’s their 1A target after Cole...spin rate, analytics, a bit underperforming, perfect material for that organization to mold, 4 years, $80 million 5.Bumgarner 6.Ryu 7.Grandal 8.Keuchel 9.Odorizzi 10.Donaldson 11-20 Ozuna, Castellanos, Hamels, Will Smith, Moose, Didi, Will Harris, Pomeranz (nobody has mentioned), D. Hudson, Betances 21-30 Abreu, Pineda, Roark, Gibson, Kendrick, Chirinos, d’Arnaud, Castro, Teheran, Puig 31-33 Avi, EE, Gardner No Alex Wood, Rich Hill or Dickerson. Twins could lose three pitchers from this list, in addition to Martin Perez.

Betts will be JUST 28 at the beginning of the 2021 season. That said, it's going to take a helluva lot going wrong in 2020 to make JR so desperate he's willing to roll the dice on a mega-contract like Betts to "save the rebuild." If they're not moving forwards from this point...they're going in a reverse or neutral direction, and that's just not good enough when everything simply HAS to be targeting competing in the second half of 2020 (if they're arguably close enough at the Trade Deadline) or certainly no later than Opening Day, 2021. Signing Betts means you pretty much have to forget about keeping Giolito, Moncada and Robert, because you already have Jimenez on the books long-term as well. If we remove his 10.4 season....just for "downside" analysis, and look at his other four most recent seasons and average them out, it gives you a 6.25 fWAR. Let's just call it 6. Obviously, trading for him this season makes ZERO sense without an extension in mind, and that's just not going to happen unless a White Sox family member is connected by marriage to the Betts family (see Ozzie/F.Garcia.) Is a $35-40 million per year contract realistically going to fit on any White Sox payroll of the future without inexorably leading to another version of "stars and scrubs Sox" like 2013-2016? Does it even work at a $165-170 million payroll???

As much as I like(D) Puig in his first two years, he's not getting anything more than 3/$40-45ish, something like the Melky Cabrera deal. He's pretty consistently been worth around 1.5-2ish fWAR in recent years. Zero interest in overpaying Bumgarner with more than $100 million for his decline years without first doing everything possible to get Wheeler. And probably Odorizzi for roughly half the price of Bumgarner, leaving that other $55 million in the tank for other needed acquisitions. Finally, Bumgarner seems like an NL-first guy, he loves hitting and supposedly enjoys life out on the West Coast, so it's pretty difficult to imagine him coming to Chicago, not to mention the culture-clash/chemistry issues in the clubhouse that would be brought to the fore.

Sure, if we can get Moncada, Giolito, Robert...to sign extensions into FA, like Kershaw...or the likes of Bellinger, Seager and Buehler are going to be aiming for.

Generally, the White Sox should be maximizing their window through 1-4 year players...supplementing with FA. Signing Abreu to a multiyear deal with Vaughn waiting in the wings...there better be an agreement for him to move to DH full-time in 2021. Being wrong on their evaluation of Vaughn OR having a DH hitting the skids due to a predictable aging decline in 2021 would be...well, let’s just wait and see what Hahn says if they do go 2-3 years. I would think they would prioritize winning in 2021 over satisfying their desire to “honor/appreciate” Jose Abreu’s contributions. If not, they’re not in the business of winning championships.

Except they’re going to be paying 50-65% more than he’s worth by fWAR. Which cuts another $6 million out of the budget for 2020, somewhere...

At what position? They have Polanco at SS, Sano at 3B, Arraez/Adrianza, Marwin Gonzalez all over the field and Cron. Not seeing the need. The Twins have to replace Odorizzi, Gibson, M.Perez and Pineda. And shore up their bullpen.

Are the Yankees? They didn’t give him a QO, but we’re giving Abreu one who is worth roughly 30-35% by your 4.4 projection. If he’s going to put up those numbers, he’s a $30-35 million dollar player...at the very least, in the mid $20’s. And yet the Yankees aren’t seeing that value so clearly. Are they really going to play Torres at SS, LeMahieu at 2B and Andujar/Urshela on the left side? That would be a terrible alignment with Torres and Andujar on the field at the same time. https://unhingedyankees.com/2019/08/09/a-way-too-early-2020-yankees-roster-prediction/ 1B: Luke Voit 2B: Gleyber Torres SS: Didi Gregorius 3B: DJ LeMahieu Reserve: Gio Urshela There are a couple of question marks for the Yankees infield heading into 2020. The biggest question will be will they re-sign Didi Gregorius. I believe the answer will be yes. Gregorius has been a catalyst in helping the Yankees rebound from a handful of down years into becoming a perennial contender. His production both at the plate and in the field is irreplaceable, and it’s doubtful they will let that walk out the door.

Why would he get anything guaranteed above $9-10 million coming off the season he just had? To play 3B, SS or 2B everyday? If the Yankees are out, and that’s a very good possibility...who’s going to pay him that much? He was worth 0.9 for fWAR, Yolmer was worth 1.0. Why even bother with advanced metrics...if Yolmer’s numbers are just worth 28.6% of Gregorious’?

E-scooter or segue?

It's not like Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. was listed, either. Lowe's mostly there because the Rays were a playoff team, although that shouldn't be the MAIN factor IMO...although nobody, even in Baltimore, cares much about Means (maybe hardcore fantasy players.)

Ryu is going to be too expensive for that pitching second addition. Odorizzi is bordering on it, if you're also adding Wheeler AND Grandal. Based on his bWAR/fWAR numbers, the D-Backs are going to ask for a king's ransom on Marte. He's the ultimate "sell high" candidate on the trade market, IMO. Pederson's more likely, just because of the one year remaining...but the Dodgers need him as well unless they're 100% sure they can rely on Pollock and Verdugo for a full season (jury's still out.)

Gregorious is turning 30 before next season and would be fine hitting against RHP, to the tune of an 818 OPS from 2016-2018. Would you rather have Didi or Yolmer Sanchez? I'm assuming that if we don't get Grandal, then we're REALLY going to be scrambling to find some half-way competent hitters. He's not a full-time DH (certainly not against LHP), but he's an experienced player and would provide veteran leadership, as well as the ability to play every position on the infield and also DH. The question would be whether he would be willing to accept a part-time role? IMO, having another really solid player on the roster always have a way of working itself out...you can't have TOO MANY good players, right? Considering his injuries, he would be one of the better "buy low" candidates on the market, IMO...similar to a Dickerson, although a bit more expensive due to his Yankees' pedigree.

Well, let's see how Crane reacts to losing the World Series up 3-2 going home with Verlander and Greinke on the mound. I don't think Grandal will get $20 million AAV per year, either. We'll see.

Waiting for another Dickerson "puff piece." In all seriousness, I'm not sure it really matters all that much if we miss on Wheeler and don't sign AT LEAST one of the 4-5 hitters (Grandal/Gregorious/Moustakas/Castellanos/Ozuna) that are closer to their "normal/predictable" Sox price range.

Well, we know Cole's going elsewhere. They've got Tucker and Alvarez that are dirt cheap. That probably means they have to part with the likes of Marisnick and Reddick to free up some additional money. They still have Urquidy and Whitley (if he can return to form) for the back end of the rotation. Not sure the latest on McCullers.

For example, the ASTROS. Chirinos is a free agent. If you had to choose between the White Sox and Astros, it wouldn't be a tough call.

I would be willing to go with Gregorious as well...just because he gives you so much more positional versatility than either Castellanos or Encarnacion. I'm at the point where Wheeler, Grandal, Castellanos/Moustakas/Gregorious, cheap fill-in RF for one year and one more reliever is the VERY best that could be hoped for. Reality is probably that we only get ONE of those four hitters...the cheap RF fill-in, and a veteran who has been around the block in the Albers/Soria mode for the bullpen. That's where we are left scrambling between guys like Dozier, Schoop, Kendrick, Gennett, etc.

He would be at first with Abreu DHing...after Madrigal came up for good. Taking at-bats to rest Anderson and maybe Moncada as well.

It may be used with or without placemats, depending on the degree of formality employed by the place setting. One school of thought states that charger plates are meant simply to act as placeholders until the actual china plates are brought to the table.

Ask any Braves’ fan if they’d take him back for the $8-10 million he would be expecting...

The White Sox, home to more placeholders than a Cracker Barrel in rural Tennessee after Sunday services let out.

Then we’d be spending $41 million for two 1B/DH types. Not out of character for this organization, I guess. Sign Wheeler and we pass the Rays with three players, almost.