caulfield12

He’s been successful at profit maximization...despite probably having the worst rate of return on FA spending as measured by $ per fWAR. Amazingly, it’s negative -1 for $188 million in spending outside of Abreu (who was a KW/Paddy signing). Even if you’re overpaying egregiously, you should at least get 10-15 bWAR or fWAR. That -1 shouldn’t even be possible, imagining that you took all the free agents each cycle, pinned balloons to the wall representing those players, and threw darts while blindfolded until you hit JR’s FA spending limit per year. We should just pay the Astros to let their proprietary AI/algorithm make decisions. Over the long term, that would save a ton of money that JR spends on KW and Hahn.

Helio Castroneves

The problem is that the hitting at 3rd wasn't tolerable, either. If he could just hit at a 725-750 ops clip at second base and get on base at a decent clip, he'd be quite valuable. Alas, not to be.

Which puts them back in first...Berrios, Odorizzi, Graterol, Pineda and their 40 man roster. Of course, a lot depends there on how well Pineda does off the juice. But that’s 12.3 of fWAR with Graterol at just 0.1 and lots of uncertainty between Smeltzer and Dobnak, one of the top recent candidates to have Rookie of the Year 2 greenlit by Disney. Dobnak put up 0.8 fWAR in under 30 innings, but got slaughtered against NY.

Guaranteeing a third year in his mid 30’s is completely unnecessary. So I guess we’re basically conditioned by now to expect it to happen...

Considering the Twins are down four starting pitchers, but the offseason hasn’t even started...just competing with Minny alone in the FA pitching market will be fascinating, as neither team likes to overspend but both have obvious needs on that front. The specter of losing so often to the Yankees is hanging over everything they do. Even having the regular season they did, they’re going to have to figure out how to convince season ticket holders it won’t end up being more of the same in 2020.

Can they honestly trust any Charlotte numbers? As bad as Birmingham can make halfway decent hitters look...everyone in AAA was sporting 875ish or higher OPS numbers last year. As much as one would like to believe in Mercedes...it’s just not likely to happen with the Sox. The few Zavala supporters disappeared in the middle of last year. AAAA filler or trade throw-ins. With Sheets, he’s going to be blocked behind Abreu, Collins and Vaughn...so he probably ends up as trade bait as well.

10 hours ago,  aeichhor said: Swap out moustakas or Calhoun for castellanos and I'm game

Not to mention the Burdi pick. Without Robert, this rebuild would be in serious jeopardy.

The point is that seven close to major league-ready prospects in Moncada, Kopech, Giolito, Lopez, Dunning, Jimenez and Cease SHOULD have been a bigger head start than having to wait for five first rounders (especially high schoolers) to mature. And no team has had 1-1 to 1-3 for more than three consecutive years.

Madrigal, Robert and Moncada having more experience at third will help, but it seems we’re doomed to experience problems with Anderson (unless Madrigal rubs off on him), Abreu (until moved to DH) and the corner outfield spots. On a playoff contending team, we can only hope Anderson’s concentration and tendency to make unnecessary throws will be cut back.

The difference is those teams all had to start their rebuilds with primarily Top 10 draft picks. The Cubs were an exception. They already know had Baez, Rizzo and jump-started with Lester and Contreras lurking as a stealth future MVP candidate at catcher (who nobody knew much about.) But the Astros and Royals until the finishing touches like Cueto, Shields, Zobrist and Chapman were 70-80% constructed out of draft picks. If you take away having those three immensely-valuable contracts to trade (not to mention Frazier/Kahnle), the rebuild is basically Anderson, Rodon, Robert, Madrigal, Abreu and Vaughn...and is closer to being torn down and gutted than supplemented with free agents. Somehow, we’ve managed to turn one of the worst records in baseball over the past decade into a #21-24 farm system by mid season of 2020. And it’s certainly not because we’ve graduated multiple players from each draft class stretching from 2015-2018 into the major leagues.

Chris Taylor from the M’s. Turner from the Mets. Ryu, Maeda, Hill, etc., were all scouting victories. Obviously, selecting Buehler so low.

$80 million in new money on the books for 2020? I MIGHT be willing to believe that if there was an escalator clause in the new broadcasting rights deal doubling their per game charge to NBC if they could bring their ratings up to 2.5 or higher. But that’s pretty far-fetched, to say the least. One team ending up with five of the Top 15 free agents on the market...when there are so many teams 1-3 players away, compared to the 4-6 needed by the Sox?

$80 million in new money on the books for 2020? I MIGHT be willing to believe that if there was an escalator clause in the new broadcasting rights deal doubling their per game charge to NBC if they could bring their ratings up to 2.5 or higher. But that’s pretty far-fetched, to say the least. One team ending up with five of the Top 15 free agents on the market...when there are so many teams 1-3 players away, compared to the 4-6 needed by the Sox?

Fwiw, Paddy and KW were much more heavily involved in talking to Tatis’ father and bringing him on board than Hahn. The more likely answer is Hahn knew very little about Tatis before the trade, and/or Paddy didn’t push back hard enough, since he was the most involved. Or they both simply acquiesced because JR was more concerned with the money coming over from SD than the talent going out.

Those are the pitchers between Tier 1A and third tier. Hamels, Pomeranz...that’s basically it. Roark, Pineda and Gibson are basically interchangeable...and you could just as easily argue for Hill, Wood, Wacha, Porcello or even Teheran. Basically, you’re a serious/legit suitor on the top group or you’re just nibbling around the edges and picking over the scraps or leftovers.

11-20 Ozuna, Castellanos, Hamels, Will Smith, Moose, Didi, Will Harris, Pomeranz (nobody has mentioned), D. Hudson, Betances  21-30 Abreu, Pineda, Roark, Gibson, Kendrick, Chirinos, d’Arnaud, Castro, Teheran, Puig

Yes, but the relative consistency of the Rays, Indians, Cardinals, Brewers, Twins, A’s, Braves proves it can be done...all teams that really are good to excellent/superior at talent identification and development...it’s certainly not impossible if you’re below the $160-170 million “cut line,” but it’s getting increasingly difficult with the proliferation of the same 4-5 super teams at the top. And the plus side is a team like Washington went from missing the playoffs, losing their franchise icon and almost firing a manager twice (let’s not forget they were 19-31 to start the year) to the Wild Card and then facing elimination three “series” in a row, including taking out Cole once and Verlander twice in Houston. Of course, they were a Top 8 payroll team as well (but at least have the argument that not giving Harper $300+ million turned out to be the smartest move.) Unfortunately, there’s no balanced schedule based on previous year’s record like the NFL. There’s tremendous parity as result, and then the Patriots as an anomaly/outlier. Maybe we should just hire “Georgie” and follow Jerry’s advice of doing the opposite of whatever his gut instinct is telling him...?

He belongs on a “profit maximizing” team like the latter two...and one of only two franchises to go longer w/o a playoff appearance to boot, Btw, what MLB GM’s would NOT have succeeded in signing those 5-6 long-term extensions he’s most noted for? And is the Jimenez extension creating nearly as much surplus value? Finally, does he get any blame then for not keeping Moncada, Giolito and Robert in similar fashion? Well, it’s easy to anticipate they won’t sign, but didn’t we all pretty much foresee how hard that will/would turn out to be?

Fulmer, Collins and Burger...Hansen and Burdi (those will be defended as not Hahn’s fault, and Hansen at least had potential)...Adams...Call/Fisher and the “advanced college hitters” philosophy in addition to drafting a plethora of potential high leverage college relievers who have mainly disappointed...the backsliding of the five remaining OF prospects (other than Walker, who might be “solid” at best).

It’s impossible to imagine they could be any higher than #20-22 losing Madrigal, Cease, Robert, Collins and Kopech. That leaves Vaughn and a bunch of question marks, and a good number of posters aren’t even sold on Vaughn as an impact player. Dunning? Adolfo? Rutherford? You really have to squint hard to find players other teams would demand in trades. Everyone keeps bringing up Stiever, I guess. Thompson and Dahlquist, too.

Never quit, never surrender! Cobra Kai!

Hamels addition is a win now move. Signing him for one year is pointless...and 2-3 runs the risk he’s unable to deliver when you need him in 2021-22. That means McCann and Collins both have to come through, or the offense is going to be short again...relying on two rookies, Anderson not regressing, and Avi actually staying healthy playing RF everyday. They’d need at least one more hitter. Undoubtedly, it would be someone like EE, Puig, Dickerson or Gardner at the bottom tier.

Jon Lester might be a better example, holding onto Zobrist, etc.