caulfield12

They’re not even comparable in terms of overall two year trend lines (Eovaldi’s 2017-18 vs Wheeler’s 2018-19). Eeovaldi blew up largely due to his post season success and velocity. Fwiw, the rates of a second Tommy John revision after the first are somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-10%. Boras Corp would tell you the average time between major injuries is 4.5 years, which would make the likes of Strasburg (his client) seem like the better choice over Wheeler, but Wheeler has considerably fewer high-stress career innings pitched on his elbow, especially compared to Strasburg and Bumgarner. That leaves you with the Ryu injury guessing game, Keuchel or Hamels. Or maybe a trade for the likes of a Dylan Bundy, Jonathan Gray or other similarly once-hyped in the last 2-3 years of arbitration underperforming what their peripherals would argue they should actually be doing.

No win situation. He does well and some will still be annoyed with him...more than likely he would still underperform casual fans’ expectations based on the comps to 2013-14 and what looked the time to be a star in the making. From that original 9.4/4.7 average fWAR, he’s put up an 8.4 over 5 seasons, for an average of 1.7 (which also includes a third outlier season of 2.9) Worst case scenario and he’s in that 1.5ish range. Fwiw, the two projection systems at FG have him at 1.9 and 2.1. Realistically, the main reason for the team is the marketing angle...the posters of Robert, Puig, Moncada, Grandal and Abreu...competing for eyeballs with the new Cubs’ network (especially if they overcharge and there’s a backlash). Strictly a one year deal with an option based on incentives or a favorable club option for 2021 to protect against Sox prospect failure at a still reasonable rate of $10-14 million with 2020 being the low year. I think Ozuna and probably Castellanos are off the table at this point. He’s only going to be 29 and the media still follows him. Heck, put him 6th/7th in the batting order...no pressure or expectation, and he might flourish with all the attention on Moncada, Eloy, Grandal, Madrigal and Robert. That’s not even mentioning TA and Abreu. Worst case scenario is he divides the clubhouse and has to be dumped...best case is a 3ish fWAR and we make the playoffs with a suddenly scary offense with almost no weaknesses from top to bottom. Or (most optimistically) Mickey Adolfo is ready to replace him. And the cost is half (at most) of which they just gifted Abreu.

Catcher Locks: Jacob Stallings, Elias Díaz Possibilities: Free agent or trade acquisition This seems like an area where the Pirates will look to add this offseason, whether it’s through free agency or trades. The tricky part here is that both of their current catchers, Stallings and Díaz, are out of Minor League options. Maybe they’ll use that extra roster spot to carry a third catcher, especially if they add a player with more defensive versatility. Who might they seek? Perhaps free agents like Travis d'Arnaud, Robinson Chirinosor, if he’s interested in a reunion, Russell Martin. On the trade front, the Dodgers’ Austin Barnes seems like a classic Huntington-era Pirates target. The 29-year-old is behind Will Smith on Los Angeles’ depth chart, two years removed from an excellent overall season and still well-regarded as a pitch-framer despite his offensive struggles the past two years.

Just like that $4 million deferred on Abreu...or Konerko Bucks. His 2022 is already being revalued down to $11 million. By that same argument, a $364 million Machado contract was “ONLY” worth $300 million factoring in inflation!!! Wow. Herschel Walker and Bobby Bonilla are the best examples in sports contract history of never ending ness.

What’s that $/fWAR stat about the White Sox far and away having the most inefficient spending at the DH/1B positions going back to 2011? It’s a crazy number, if you think of things in terms of economic inefficiency and wasted/blown opportunity cost.

Well, that just shows how much attention I paid to baseball last season...for my supposed favorite player. Fwiw, there will be a number of articles linking Puig and the White Sox, starting out with the local a Chicago hacks. It’s just way too obvious. Shorter-term contract, former big name, also Cuban, happens to play the position which is the most glaring current positional need...and other options like Castellanos and Ozuna are being blocked at DH in 2021-22 by Abreu. Who knows, maybe Avi comes back at this rate...since JR is feeling particularly sentimental.

Not happening.

Well, he was on the Reds to end the season...technically, not stealing him away like Wheeler. Maybe we should just trade for Dylan Bundy as our second starting pitching move of the offseason...according to that just-quoted The Athletic article, he shares a lot of the same qualities/traits/attributes as Zack Greinke, with two remaining arbitration seasons. Of course, GRF isn’t exactly the definition of a pitcher-friendly park. Bundy, who recently turned 27, might never possess elite command, but it would be interesting to see whether he could become a better pitcher with a fresh approach and more competitive team in a less hitter-friendly park. He is under club control for two more seasons — MLBTradeRumors.com projects him to earn $5.7 million in arbitration next season — and the Orioles are open to trading him.

Taking Wheeler AND Puig, lol?

The best-case scenario is either Rodon or Lopez becomes a lockdown/elite closer in 2021 (so we can reallocate the Colome/Herrera money), Collins proves useful and three out of those five projected starters (including Dunning) succeed. The reality is probably 2/5, going by Sox history. Maybe Dunning can play up his stuff in the pen as well. mid to late 2020 1-2 Wheeler or Giolito 3-4 Lopez or Kopech 5 Cease or Rodon 6 Veteran stopgap (Pineda, Gibson, Wacha, Wood, Porcello, Pomeranz, Gio G.) 7 legit pitchers for 5 spots is certainly reasonable. Bullpen with Colome, Bummer, Cease or Rodon, Herrera, veteran RH addition ($4-7 million), Fry, Dunning, Marshall, etc. Optimistically, 2 of Cease, Rodon, Lopez, Dunning could quickly make the pen a huge strength. Agree 100% they still need to add two starters to avoid Detwiler/Covey/Despaigne starts. Who knows, maybe Covey, Fulmer or Tyler Hamilton make remarkable bullpen comebacks.

What happened to the real Thad? After they sign Wheeler for $100-115 million and sign Betts for $350 million, even if it backfires spectacularly, everyone will be placated. Of course, if they both implode, it will be the biggest setback since the Black Flag Trade, Sportsvision or the 1919 BlackSox. Hahn/KW will both be gone and the franchise likely sold for a huge profit. But the odds of Cole, Strasburg and Rendon signing (any of them) are so small as to be almost negligible...since at least one if nothing both will stay with Washington, we don’t need a 3B and Cole will go to CA or NY.

Contreras was a 2.2 fWAR pitcher for his last 2 1/2 years with the White Sox, but not close to the 2005-2006 version, which was 3.7. I suppose that gets the sentimental Konerko/Abreu past contributions award. Looking back retrospectively, not a total disaster, but also a shadow of the last two months of 2005 and first two months of 2006 version. Dunn set the franchise back three years...and his only real Sox highlight was that 2012 team that collapsed the final two weeks against DET. I guess Dallas Buyer’s Club and having the Royals end his career with OAK. In fact, Rios and Dunn collectively killed the franchise the first half of the decade (due to 2011), and sent Buehrle and Ozzie packing...which indirectly led to the Ventura Malaise Years, Jersey Gate and Eaton/Drake Leadership Gate. Melky Cabrera was worth 0.7 fWAR his three White Sox contract years. A slight overpay...I guess. Basically, about $20 million per 1 unit of fWAR. Konerko averaged a bit under 0.6 fWAR his last four (still expensive) seasons with the White Sox. LaRoche? Castillo and Alonso in 2018/2019?

The argument is 1/3rd about this particular signing, but much more about NO LONGER “unlimited financial flexibility” from 2021 onwards. That’s now permanently gone as a Hahn catchphrase after these last two days.

The one time we needed to actually keep a veteran, we dump Thome for Kotsay and gifted the Twins another division title, just like not signing Kenny Rogers bit them in the ass in 2003. Somehow, those damned Twins will never go away, ever since the Ozzie overly-complimentary Piranha label stuck. Jose Paniagua Bullpen 2020!!!

Danks...Konerko...Jose Contreras after 2006. Dunn. LaRoche. Melky Cabrera. Alex Rios. Herrera will still get way too many chances next year. Welington Castillo. ETC. And this always happens with the White Sox.

As long as the White Sox are willing to go from $100 to $115 million on Wheeler for five years, no problemo. The issue for the White Sox has always been adding those extra years on at the back end...especially with pitchers. Grandal got one more year than most would have ideally preferred, and Abreu did as well...if not two. Fine, maybe that’s actually a positive sign they’re changing the way they do business, although Abreu will always be the JR/Konerko Favored Son Special if this goes sideways. As long as they don’t stop now and start blanching at those extra years for FA pitchers...maybe it all actually works out in the end.

If we sign Keuchel or Hamels instead of those top three...will you consider the offseason a complete success, assuming a band-aid RF, no DH move like EE (other than current roster) and one more random RH veteran reliever? And, as to your point, they budgeted everything out with Machado last year, did they not? In the end, wasn’t it concern about lack of financial flexibility and/or player performance decline over that last $100 million that destroyed the deal? We can argue the positives with Moncada ensconced there at third now, but nobody knew that this time last year...so somehow the spin has become that it worked out brilliantly to completely screw up a negotiation or not pursue Harper as well.

“Under terms of the deal, the All-Star first baseman will receive a $5 million signing bonus, $11 million in 2020, $16 million in 2021 and $18 million in 2022 with $4 million deferred. Abreu accepted the $17.8 million qualifying offer last week from the White Sox.” It still amounts to an average of $15 million in 21-22 and $4 million deferred that would have been going to the bench or a veteran RH reliever. And we still haven’t mentioned the very real need in 2021 to replace the back end of the bullpen again. Sure, Colome’s deal will be gone...but going back into FA if we can’t come up with an internal option means another $3-5 million in spending on top of what we were paying him for an “elite/lockdown” reliever in what HAS TO BE a contending season.. I guess the spin will be that this money comes from Colome/Herrera departing...but still have a feeling we will be needing that $15 million to address an even more pressing need that’s completely unanticipated.

If they don’t sign Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu, Keuchel or even Hamels...and this is (indirectly) given as part of the excuse, that’s where a lot of posters are going to have a problem. And there’s the whole issue of (needlessly) blocking Vaughn at 1B OR him DHing and preventing Grandal from getting at-bats there to keep him as well rested as possible in the second half of seasons (especially during July/August Chicago weather.)

Why didn’t we extend the same courtesy to Mark Buehrle back in 2011-12? He and Konerko were the heart of the organization (and World Series winners) for over a decade...not just six non-winning seasons. Ozzie leaving made it easier on Jerry, somehow? Why didn’t we also stay loyal to Jim Thome in 2010...?

They were never in them to begin with...

We better never hear: 1) Extensions for Giolito, Moncada and Robert were just out of our “comfortable” price range...or that Moncada/Robert wouldn’t sign extensions despite Abreu being around 3 full seasons rather than just 1 year. 2) The reason for not signing Wheeler has anything to do with payroll obligations in 2020/21 3) Jose just can’t hit well at DH...needs to be on the field 130-140 games per season as “capitan” and designated team role model. 4) That we needed to move on from Collins and/or Vaughn because of this deal. 5) KW or Stone or Cooper mentioning limited available current/future payroll due to attendance issues If this forecasts adding the last remaining “name” Cuban player in Puig for one year/$8-12 million and a 2021 option, it’s still not worth it...

Still not enough...what would they do, trade Josh Bell to open 1B for Sheets? Walker has to put up a 800+ ops at Birmingham before his stock will rise enough for him to be a headliner.

No way they add Castellanos then...they likely add a Moustakas at DH for closer to $20-22 million over two years. Castellanos is likely to get at least 3-4 years/$45-60 million and then you’re not only committing yourself to a pretty bad defensive outfield but putting Robert’s health at risk as well.

How many times will Puig’s name come up in the next 4 months? The Cuban Connection is strong with us, Mandalorian...