caulfield12

The next one’s likely to be not auctioning off Contreras at peak value...and Happ/Almora falling backwards (in addition to Russell) when they really needed someone to step up for Zobrist. None of their youngsters took the next step behind the Core 4 as they call them. The bad FA $deals are always the headliners for Theo, but Lester was eventually going to get older and they haven’t been able to replenish the pitching pipeline internally. In the end, having too many aging/injured AND expensive players catches up with you every time. Just ask Boston.

Amateur tip: that’s the font size that SoxTalk is set on as a default when you copy and paste from an article using an IPad. Certainly there’s a way to set it at a smaller size. So what should the official size be that will be considered not too small and not too large. And I wasn’t trying to win any argument...I was explicating in the clearest terms possible, or rather the article was (and even it’s worded somewhat confusingly, as you admit in the very next post.) But thanks to The Bolded Police...err...Hooded Justice, greater Tulsa and now SoxTalk is now liberated from the tyranny...of someone taking the time to highlight the most salient points for other readers. Long live Dr. Manhattan.

The problem is I actually remembered it incorrectly...but the years were basically accurate. It wasn’t that all TJ pitchers on average only last 4.5 years before second surgery/revision...it was that for those who do need a second surgery, the average time from 1st to second procedure is/was 4 years. Yet the current risk on Wheeler seems more than “de minimus,” because Boras is making the best possible case for his client, Strasburg. Wheeler took 2 1/2 years to return, experiencing setbacks in 2016 and 2017 and not being 100% until Years 3&4 after TJ. And he’s only 5 years out from surgery (as of next Spring Training), so still in the “danger zone,” relatively speaking (not to quote Kenny Loggins.) Strasburg is coming off a 2019 campaign in which he threw a career-high 245 1⁄3 innings in the regular season and postseason combined, and he is nine years removed from Tommy John surgery now, Rosenthal noted, and, “... the odds of a pitcher requiring a second TJ are not particularly high, according to a study published by the Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery in 2018.” The average time for a pitcher who needs a second Tommy John surgery is four years after the first procedure, according to their data, and Strasburg is now well beyond that window. Also working in Strasburg’s favor? The fact that his fastball velocity isn’t quite what it used to be (94 MPH+ AVG in 2019 on his four-seamer and sinker) and he’s throwing fastballs significantly less than he used to (a career-low 48.3% of the time in 2019), while focusing more on his offspeed offerings this season (30.6% curveballs and 20.7% changeups, both career highs, percentage-wise). As Rosenthal writes, Strasburg has gone nine years on his new UCL while lowering, “his risk factors along the way.” With career lows in peak velocity (Strasburg maxed out at 96.9 on his four-seam and sinker this season), and average velocity, the right-hander is trending in the right direction, and his decreased fastball usage is a positive as well. And the need for a second procedure among “established major league pitchers” or “elite” starting pitchers, as Boras told Rosenthal, is less than 2%. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/washington-nationals-rumors-will-stephen-strasburg-quickly-return-to-dc-this-winter/ar-BBXd2PU

We’re seriously overthinking things to worry over just $5 million when we wasted $35 million last offseason and needlessly gave Abreu another $32 million guaranteed without seeing how he’d perform in 2020 first. Penny wise, pound foolish...

Ask PTAC. The success rate for second is roughly 60%, close to 80% for first. You have to consider all the pitchers that are not well known... just like the average NFL career is something like 2.8 years. Of course there are exceptions. I'd have to look up an article I quoted from the last two years written by researchers with one of the sports representation agencies. Think of all the pitchers who don't change mechanics or have other major injuries due to changes that put more stress on the shoulder or labrum or forearm. If the average was 8-9 years before second TJ... we'd all be having zero worries about Wheeler getting a 5-6 year deal. But that's definitely not the case here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_baseball_players_who_underwent_Tommy_John_surgery March, 2015 He basically missed 2 1/2 seasons...then has had two full seasons, 2018 and 2019. 17 GS in 2017, 29 in 2018, 31 in 2019. So healthy for 2 1/2 years as well. Fwiw, the average amount of time before a second revision/correction TJ surgery averages about 4 1/2 years (which would have been near the end of the 2019 season for Wheeler.) Strasburg has successfully gone close to 8 without any problems. He was shut down in late 2017 with right forearm stiffness after having biceps tendonitis in the middle of his recovery season back from TJ (normally would have been expected back by mid 2016). Also had a mild flexor strain in 2016 in the middle of the year after starting the 2nd year of his TJ comeback on the 60 day DL, causing him to miss the entire season. Wheeler moved from Smyrna to Dallas, Georgia, to attend East Paulding High School, where he played baseball and basketball.[5][1] Wheeler was an unheralded ballplayer until he hit a growth spurt at 15 years old; his height eventually reached 6 feet 4 inches and his fastball exceeded 90 miles per hour, attracting the attention of scouts.[1] In 2008, his junior year, he went 8–3 with a 1.31 ERA and 127 strikeouts over 64 1⁄3 innings and was named AAA Region Pitcher of the Year.[6] In 2009, his senior year, Wheeler pitched in 13 games and finished 9–0 with an 0.54 ERA and 151 strikeouts in 77 2⁄3 innings. That year he was named the 2009 Gatorade High School Player of the Year for Georgia.[5] source: wikipedia

Aren't you looking closer to $175-225 million to make it worthwhile? Robert around $115-125 million? Still would be pretty shocked if Hahn could get either of those 2, OR Giolito.

If I broke the story in China Monday morning at 11:14 a.m., it's 9:14 p.m. in Chicago the previous night (Sunday). The problem with this idea is that while the Japanese reporter would actually be awake and theoretically writing stories at that time in the morning...and most sportswriters are usually late morning arrivals at work, wouldn't the 24 hour globalized news cycle tend to prevent any situation like this, with everyone connected by Ipad/tablet/device every minute of the day? Just hard to imagine a story like that could ever break out of another country...other than Pedro Gomez-Dominican related players, like with Machado last year. And that's basically the same time zone as US (EST). Takatsu's uncle? I guess the loyalty program with JR REALLY never ends, if Shingko and Tadahito are still plugged into White Sox sources BUT we can't manage to get another player out of that market in 15 years...

Hudson and Cooper didn’t part on the best of terms...

But to say he’s the best in the business...when it’s standard operating procedure the last fifteen years? The Indians were even doing this in the mid 90’s. And the only reason we have a rebuild is due to the fact we couldn’t successfully build a core, either through FA or the draft or player development, yes? The difference is those other teams extended contention windows rather than being forced to auction off their best pieces. In the end, signing extensions with Robert, Giolito and Moncada will all be considerably more difficult...despite the “friends and family” approach of keeping Abreu around much longer than anticipated.

Ummm...the Indians probably had double the number of early extensions over the last two decades (when Hahn was already in charge of this for the Sox). The Rays are way more proficient, for example.

Almost starting to feel sorry for the Cubs...almost...when their FA search list looks like the White Sox of the past decade. https://theathletic.com/1416182/2019/11/29/trust-the-process-how-the-cubs-can-land-a-starter-and-reshape-their-rotation/?source=weeklyemail But look at the rest of the free-agent list and notice former American League Cy Young Award winners like Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello and 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels. Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Gio González, Wade Miley and Tanner Roark have started multiple playoff games. Some team will look beyond Michael Pineda’s PED suspension and Tommy John history and bet on his top-prospect pedigree and relatively low total of big-league innings (826). Julio Teheran (77-73, 3.67 ERA) was once a young Braves pitcher the Cubs evaluated as a trade target while trying to sort through their inventory of young hitters, and he still won’t turn 30 until 2021. Another ex-Brave — Alex Wood (53-43, 3.40 ERA) — is coming off an injury-plagued season with the Cincinnati Reds and will be only 29 next year. The Cubs previously tried to trade for Collin McHugh, who also had a rough season heading into free agency. With the Houston Astros, McHugh won 19 games as a starter in 2015, earned a World Series ring in 2017 and posted a 1.99 ERA — with 94 strikeouts in 72.1 innings — across 58 appearances as a reliever in 2018.

Knives Out is definitely worth checking out, Ana de Armas was the star of the show. Daniel Craig seemed like he was really having fun for the first time in ages as an actor, since taking the Bond role. Excellent cast is the strength of this one...what those Agatha Christie murder mysteries endeavored to be. Would never imagine a Star Wars director could pull off such a completely different genre of film so well.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/sports/csn/giants/Why_Zack_Wheeler_could_be_perfect_fit_for_Giants_in_MLB_free_agency_BAY.html Same exact arguments here for SFG as the White a Sox as a potential Wheeler landing spot. Still think the final dollars will be closer to $115 million than low $70’s at this point, though.

Counting on Burdi (or Burger, that matter) is a fool’s errand at this point. Back to the earlier question on Haniger...just have a feeling that selling too low on him this offseason isn’t going to happen. That brings us to the two players the M’s themselves identified as critical: Mitch Haniger and Marco Gonzales. Haniger’s lost year made 2019 harder to watch, and harder to evaluate. He wasn’t tearing things up before he tore…a really important thing up, but I’m fine giving him a mulligan. We’ve all been waiting for him to make the leap from excellent/All-Star candidate RF to superstar, and he’s still got the possibility, though it’s diminishing with age. And if Mitch was hard to evaluate, I’m not even sure what to say about Marco Gonzales. I’ll start with this: He’s better than a lot of people, including me, give him credit for. I think I’ve been the most pessimistic about his chances to succeed with diminished velo, but he’s been a quality MLB starter this year, albeit with some hot/cold streaks of his own. It all adds up to someone that’s more than the sum of his peripherals/measurables, and I think I’ve underestimated him because of that. But you can put a thumb or two on the scale for his pitchability and competitiveness and still not have an ace, and I’m still not sure why the M’s have seemed to argue that he is one, or could become one. Gonzales ended up essentially repeating his good 2018, albeit with fewer strikeouts and more walks. The ERA was essentially identical, so he’s got two years of a 4.00 ERA, and two years of solid HR-suppression. I think his 2018-2019 run is essentially the best anyone could hope for given his bat-missing and velocity, and while that level of production is higher than I ever would’ve thought possible, I simply don’t see a path to a 6-8 WAR season. Give Marco 5 extra MPH and you could, but at this point, I’d just settle for him stopping the velo decline. http://www.ussmariner.com

You realize Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Rodon, Lambert and Dunning have already had TJ surgery? The average amount of time before a second is 4.5 years, historically. There’s no exact science. Strasburg is 8 years out on his, but his workload in 2018 constitutes a massive red flag...especially when compared to average IP numbers throughout his career. Plus, in general, getting to consecutive postseasons like the Astros and Dodgers have...well, just look at Kershaw now. Cole carries a similar type of risk. Wheeler has considerably less high stress wear and tear on his arm than either of Cole and Strasburg. Even if you play in the third tier with guys like Ivan Nova or Kyle Gibson, you’re still paying $10 million or more per year.

Unless the Blue Jays’ player Nate Pearson has also added internet speculation to his CV recently...

This guy works for Fangraphs? Up to $112.5 w/ incentives, or “just” $100 million guaranteed + the possibility of incentives to add on top?

Unless they were willing to overpay by 10-15%...$110-115 million, and nobody else was within $5-7.5 million...why wouldn’t Wheeler at least wait until the Winter Meetings? You might even argue that waiting for the really big spending teams to miss out on Cole or Strasburg helps his case even more...let’s say the Nats know they won’t be able to keep Rendon on a 7 year deal, so they go all-in on Stras. The other teams then losing out on Cole (or unwilling to go cray cray like LA under Friedman so far or even the Yankees recently, or Astros) are going to immediately set their sights on Wheeler, if they haven’t already. Now you can make the argument those playoff ready teams with deep pockets might be more willing to give Bumgarner or Ryu bigger money for fewer years...Wheeler’s lack of overall wear and tear on his arm and relatively young status make him the obvious choice for anyone willing to go at least five years at $20-25 million. Still seems likely that at least one of Ryu and Bumgarner remain in the NL...could argue the same for Hamels as well. There’s also a lot of logic to one of Cole or Strasburg going back to Southern California, either Dodgers, Angels, Padres or possibly SFG.

Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock.

Near South Side=Inner Harbor area???

Irrationally exuberant fanatics.

There were less obvious signs of things to come in the movie Signs.

Unless it’s St. Louis! Or Boston, for some players.

Well, I guess for those who have enough time on their hands to go through individual player's Twitter and Instagram feeds, it's always possible to get the news before it's officially reported...or at least speculate on cryptic posts.