caulfield12

Ryu will be roughly 50% of the Wheeler price in terms of overall dollars. That said, he's built for an all-in team (right now, like the Twins)...he'll want to stay as close to Korea as possibly, he wants to join his countryman Choo on the Rangers to complete their newly-revitalized rotation playing in a brand-new stadium or go back to the Dodgers if they miss on Cole/Strasburg...and, of course, he has Boras as his agent. And he can hardly ever stay healthy for a full season. Etc. Etc.

The difference, though...is that Sale had JUST helped deliver a World Series title in the previous season before signing that extension. Obviously, they'd probably love to take it back, but it's not like the additions of Price and Sale can be categorically declared failures when they both contributed to a 4th WS title in the span of two decades.

In the end, it's a business of closing. He has one box checked where he did something that almost nobody in baseball or loyal White Sox fans expected, beating out the Cardinals for Luis Robert. Recently, we have a series of deals where we arguably overpaid by 10-15%, including Grandal, Abreu and the Jimenez extension. There's certainly no "value extraction" going on in any of those moves. Of the other big-name acquisitions under his stewardship, Robertson, Cabrera and LaRoche were all overpaid to various degrees as well. And we know all about last year's FA class. We can dwell on Wheeler, Machado (which actually worked out for the best, at least right now), Tanaka, etc., but he's going to be judged ultimately on won-loss record from this season forwards, not on getting turned down by Wheeler's fiance/family, essentially. Right now, we're left in a situation where we're forced back into Tier B/C pitching prospects with obvious warts...nothing unusual for the White Sox (or the Twins/Indians, for that matter.) From here on out, he's going to have to be extremely creative, and that's not his area of expertise. Looking at it logically, one would assume that means using the knowledge of Grandal...the Cuban/Latin American baseball family and Renteria as the manager, to try to leverage those relationships to bring in some more useful/undervalued players. Of course, that's a double-edged sword...I'd love to believe that the ethnic background or composition of the clubhouse or even the manager in this day and age would never be a factor in the player/agent decision-making process, but I'm not sure that's being 100% realistic, either. ULTIMATELY, as far as Hahn specifically goes, a great closer would be expected to get at least one of Moncada, Giolito or Luis Robert to sign an extension. I'll believe it when I see it, particularly with Moncada and Robert. If he can't do that, and he consistently fails to close the deal....regardless of whether it was the "right" or wrong player looking back retrospectively...and there's nothing else he demonstrably excels at (if there IS one, would love to hear it), then they need to find a new leader that can do a better job of selling the Chicago White Sox as an organization. Who doesn't sell it like a stock or bond or market arbitrage, but lives/dies/bleeds with every up and down of the organization. He doesn't have to be Hawk Harrelson, but something is missing, not sure if it's passion/charisma, but he just doesn't have the X Factor that great executives tend to possess, the ability to inspire his leadership team and inspire/motivate those around him to unparalleled heights. (Of course, we all know this is not how JR operates and there's never going to be a course correction. Not until/unless JR sells the team. Hahn will resign/fall on his own sword if the rebuild tanks and take a "promotion" to a position below KW or get a job in Silicon Valley or on Wall Street.)

The overall problem isn’t this ONE deal...it’s the lack of talent in the minor leagues to play around with AND the next two FA pitching classes being pretty darned MEHH. If we still don’t have the starting pitching or leaps of improvement in the farm system...then we’re just wasting every single year of Moncada, Giolito, Anderson and Grandal. The countdown clock is already ticking. The pitcher might have to come at the trade deadline next year. And we still don’t have a closer for 2021 or the look of a top-notch overall pen...albeit that’s easier to find. One just has to hope and pray everything breaks right before the first article suggesting a trade of one of those four guys appears.Missing the playoffs in 2021 really amps up the pressure. Just wonder if they kept Narvaez...we could have saved on Grandal and really had the money to go after Cole or Strasburg, but that’s really a pipe dream. And they better hope Abreu doesn’t fall off a cliff in 2021-22 or it’s going to turn ugly...not through any fault of Abreu’s personally, he’s not the one writing the checks, after all.

The idea of Javy was always greater than the sum of all his parts. A $300 million arm who never could be anything more than a solid #3/4 and somehow always managed to give up untimely big innings or come out on the wrong side of decisions.

The Rockies should be another team to inquire on... Fwiw, Ray is a great fantasy league pitcher for all his K’s, and that bails out the defense to an extent but also puts a lot of pressure on the bullpen due to elevated pitch counts in the 5th or 6th. How many HR’s did he allow? He’s one of those guys like Betts in the sign and extend camp who just might be wondering if the showers of money coming down from heaven will quickly dry up again next offseason...as the owners are clearly trying to make the point they’re not suppressing salaries or colluding. Or maybe another major economic recession hits over the next couple of years. Betts will get his with another 6+ fWAR...but does Ray get Wheeler Bucks as the prettiest girl left without a date for prom?

2020-21 Free Agents Starting pitchers: Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Arrieta (club option), Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana 2021-22 Free Agents Starting pitchers: Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Chris Archer, Mike Foltynewicz Not a whole lotta options to be in love with there for a variety of reasons. Yikes.

Only thought is at least the Twins didn’t sign him. We’re basically competing with them, and Cleveland...not the Phillies. And with how bad we are at evaluating talent, Wheeler probably ends up as a bullet that we dodged. Also, that this going on another two plus months and losing out on him ultimately would have been another miserable feeling.

There’s a decent likelihood the Phillies can’t get past Washington and Atlanta again next year, even with Wheeler. Other than Harper and Hoskins, the core of their offense is comprised of veterans who are aging/declining...they might have one run in them this season, but it’s not like they’re positioned so well for the future. The odds are still pretty decent (at least 50/50) that one of Rendon/Strasburg ends up staying in DC.

If Hahn uses the excuse about needing to keep money in reserve for extensions after giving Abreu an extra $32 million...

Hence, the reason Cubs’ fans can rightfully be disappointed but certainly not upset. Not after a century...

He’s from Smyrna, so Atlanta metro. His family would be able to see all his games against the Braves, for example...plus he’s already 100% familiar with the teams/hitters/cities in the the NL East.

1/30th of MLB was willing to pay Machado over $250 million. In the end, does it really matter when you miss out...if 3 or 4 or 5 teams were at $100+ million.

The Phillies have been bad almost as long as the White Sox. It’s just their owner is more determined to write massive checks and make big splashes since they can’t turn back now after adding three big names last year and at least two more in this cycle (Gregorious being the other.)

Right now he’s looking closer to $65-80 million than $50-54 some initially predicted coming into the offseason. Low $60’s for three years or $70-75 million for four doesn’t sound so crazy anymore if you look at his 2019 numbers and block out all the other noise.

Twins’ fans will always have 1987 and 1991!!! They do have that new/er stadium...but losing 15 times consecutively in the playoffs to the Yankees and missing out on Wheeler would be completely demoralizing. Bringing back Odorizzi is similar to us resigning Abreu. And they’re having zero luck getting guys like Berrios and Buxton to sign extensions.

When has Boras ever signed a quick deal in a feeding frenzy? Ryu might (logically enough) wish to go back to LA and will likely wait until they sign someone OR miss all their primary targets first and then Ryu suddenly becomes extremely appealing. Boras controls Cole, Strasburg, Ryu and Keuchel. After Wheeler signs, everyone has to come to him. Those that don’t wish to play are left fighting over Bumgarner and Hamels.

But a position player in his 30’s, and even that comes with a significant amount of risk since catchers plateau earlier than any other position. Look no further than Mauer or Posey. But our last deal that long was rewarded internally to Danks...which obviously didn’t end well.

The trade for Greinke came at a high cost for Houston, though, which gave up three of its top five prospects according to MLB Pipeline: first baseman Seth Beer (No. 3) and right-handers J.B. Bukauskas (No. 4) and Corbin Martin (No. 5), in addition to infielder Josh Rojas (No. 22) and cash going to Arizona. Martin recently had Tommy John surgery and is out for the season. https://www.mlb.com/news/zack-greinke-astros-trade Without all the money coming from AZ, it doesn’t happen. The Astros’ system was really down by then...none of those three guys are comparable to Giolito, Moncada, Kopech, Lopez, Cease or Jimenez.

It forces Kopech, Cease or Lopez to be great...at least one...and Giolito to maintain his level.

Boras will be perfectly happy to raise the price on Ryu from 3/$54 to 4/$80. Then it will be too risky again.

It has to be after Year 4.

At the latest, by the end of the Winter Meetings next week...

The Nationals would have won the World Series without Corbin? The Red Sox without Price? Maybe the better argument is not to overspend AFTER winning a World Series.

The Twins, Reds and White Sox won’t go six...but the Phillies or Angels will. They already proved it last year on Harper.