caulfield12

Not pro Miller, although I hedged when investing into LMVTX by going equal with LMOPX in 2001. Miller was actually one of the original huge institutional holders of Amazon, but dumped most of it in one of the numerous mistakes that led to his downfall...he never grasped that value tech stocks behave quite different from traditional value finds on the market. Putting all there with Miller would have been an absolute debacle. Most of my money went to Oakmark, American Century (disappointing, largely), Berkshire Hathaway, Fidelity and the largest chunk by far to various classes of Vanguard stock indexes and a few bond funds. The other 1/4th is in individual stocks and money market funds (crappy rate of return but need to keep 10% liquid). We have some here in China, two different CD’s through my wife’s insurance company paying 8% and 3%. The guaranteed 8% is a long story. All things considered, the overall rate of return wouldn’t have been much different with 3-5 Vanguard funds over the last couple of decades. My individual stock picking has been around 9-10% during that time. My Chinese holdings were way up until the trade war started, lol...but they will all recover over time. Still in net positive territory, particularly in the large national insurance groups (Ping An). Last time I changed allocations, went to some REITs and small/midcap funds with Fidelity to rebalance/diversify.

Then why don’t they get competitive balance compensation picks like the Cardinals or Tigers?

What possible reason would the White Sox have for being an anomaly like the Cubs, Red Sox or Cardinals that draw consistently come hell or high water? Chicago Cubs 2008 3.3 million 2013 2.643 million 2014 2.652 million 20% drop-off (still not back to 3.3 million despite four playoffs in a row, one World Series title...have fallen last two years, in fact) White Sox 2006 2.957 million 2008 2.51 million 2018 1.61 million (after the worst cumulative record in baseball for the last 6 years) 36% dropoff into the heart of the rebuild from 2008...the Cubs essentially have a 16% advantage due to historic Wrigley Field, the area around the park, yuppies, corporate tickets, grandmothers from Iowa and day baseball in the summer. In fact, the Cubs in 2006 had an advantage in attendance of less than 200,000 over the Sox. That’s the last season both teams made the playoffs together, 2008.

See the first sentence.

The Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust's after-fee return beat the S&P 500 index for 15 consecutive years from 1991 through 2005 (consistently producing market-beating returns is considered to be very unlikely according to the efficient market hypothesis). Miller once said, "As for the so-called streak, that's an accident of the calendar. If the year ended on different months it wouldn't be there and at some point the mathematics will hit us. We've been lucky. Well, maybe it's not 100% luck—maybe 95% luck."[7] Michael Mauboussin, former chief investment strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management, looked at the historical data on the percent of equity mutual funds that beat the market during Value Trust's 15-year streak.[8] Because the number of equity mutual funds beating the market fell as low as 8% in one year and 13% in another, he estimated the probability of beating the market in the 15 years ending 2005 was 1 in 2.3 million.[8] However, Leonard Mlodinow, in The Drunkard's Walk, notes that Mauboussin's analysis misframes the question and, when framed properly, the probability of occurrence of such a streak is much higher, around 3%.[9] Additionally, Mauboussin's analysis also doesn't consider other possible 15-year windows where similar streaks could have occurred, but did not. When these periods are also included in the analysis, the odds of someone beating the market 15 years in a row at some point in the modern United States investing is around 75%—in other words, it would have been unlikely if there hadn't been such an occurrence.

Bill Miller and LMVTX beat the market 13 consecutive years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^DJI?p=^DJI Another bloodbath today. Nearing correction territory. Between American companies exposed to China and the housing industry getting clobbered by rising interest rates, things are looking bleak. It’s starting to sound like the Trump administration wants to force China to capitulate, and they won’t do that as easily as Trump believes. Regime change, in the words of Jim Cramer, is almost impossible to conceive of over here, where the stock market was actually up Monday and Tuesday. In fact, the political pressure will only ratchet up more in the US if stocks continue to fall the next two weeks. No “fake middle class tax cut” talk will be able to save anyone’s hide. Trump doesn’t seem to know only 8% own stocks here (almost all institutional holders, government and corporate shares, not mom and pop in the middle class), not the 58% or 61% or whatever the number is in America whose retirements are tied to the markets.

If he can "fix" Alexei, he can do the same with Moncada. Theoretically.

Do you have any other index funds that you can change to? Target date funds actually might be a better defensive play in this environment...assuming there's going to be correction of 20-25% over the next 2-3 years. Equities (especially emerging markets) are getting battered. Bonds are the safer play to mitigate against risk. The way I think about it is a simple rule. 100 minus your age should be the percentage you have in more aggressive investments, like individuals stocks and "high growth/technology" fields. At this point in my life, I should be relatively close to 50/50. That said, since I won't need the money for another 10-15 years, I'm okaying being 80/20 on the side of stocks versus bonds. I also have about 10% parked in a real estate investment trust (REIT), but real estate is also going to suffer in this future environment. Utilities/telecoms/high dividend or defensive "value" stocks (think Oakmark Funds or Berkshire Hathaway) would be a decent play, if available. If your time horizon is 3-5 years and you're really concerned about taking significant losses in the next 2-3 years of expected recession/falling corporate profits, you MIGHT want to readjust, but you probably shouldn't if you have a decent target year fund. If you were sitting on the Vanguard 500 index for your retirement, we're going into some really choppy waters, but you take your money out and you lose huge gains in the future when it bounces back. That said, it's okay to reallocate now, when things are relatively/comparatively higher than panicking down the line when you're already lost an additional 20-30%. That's when you SHOULD be buying on the dip, dollar cost averaging, etc. You will be rewarded in the future, even if it seems counter-intuitive to do the opposite of the crowd/neighbors/co-workers/your mailperson, etc.

Will this even make the ESPN "ticker" of the top 6 or 7 stories? Maybe there should be an embargo against signings over $75 million during the WS...it's not like anyone is focused exclusively on the Red Sox/Dodgers, with NBA/NHL/NCAAF and soon NCAAB.

Donaldson's potential upside on a one year deal loaded with incentives...then auctioning him off to a contender at the trade deadline, that's the logical play here. Jake Lamb's a decent player, and Escobar's coming off a career year, but Lamb's not going to move the meter much. A contending team like the D-Backs is going to want to go with the player who gives them the best opportunity. That said, Eaton and Quentin both came from over there, probably the two best moves of the last decade in terms of trades. So that whole "can't handle the NL to AL transition" didn't apply to them, for some reason.

Would take Maddon or Banister....

Let's just hope Burdi can get back to the high 90's by next season. At 93-95, he's basically Carson Fulmer. Without an established back-end guy, you're going to be forcing Jones in that role, not to mention everyone is "moved up" perhaps earlier than they're ready (and Jones' health prognosis might be worse than Rodon's)...I'm not sure how wise it is to have Ian Hamilton getting his brains beaten in late, but maybe it will work out slotting 3 young guys and Jones into the back-end that you utilize to close out games. A decade ago, it meant overspending on Dotel and Linebrink for that very same reason, but that was a "win now" mode team back in 2007-2009. The pen was so terrible in the 7th and 8th, they HAD to do something or they were going to blow 16-17 leads from the 7th inning on like this year's team. Then you get into the overspending on a veteran who you might not even really need the first 1 1/2 or even 2 years of what would likely be a 3 year deal.

Not even sure it would cost $35....maybe $27.5 or $30 for 2 years? It's the pitching equivalent of Kendrys Morales, where he was terrible when he wasn't signed until mid-season and never really got started that year, depressing his value. As noted, his velocity finally picked up the second half of the year.

The argument of adding legit starters (Shields traded for Myers/Odorizzi to KC, Lester to Cubs) on multi-year deals is obvious for 2020. This year, it’s all about holding the rotation together. Covey’s fate is still also undecided. The only exception is that unique case of a currently injured pitcher you really believe who would, at the very least, be around for 2020 with at least a club option for 2021 (see Richards).

Don’t see that one very often. Trubisky’s stat line ends up looking decent, except for the interceptions and lack of accuracy, lol. Well, realistically, NE fought harder for those picks.

Apparently they hired one of the Stoops brothers at halftime to help the D.

Bears’ receivers not exactly helping, either. Gotta make plays on the ball.

It’s why Mahomes is so amazing, a mobile QB with an arm like Favre who’s accurate, too. Guess it helps having a former MLB pitcher as your dad, and an array of offensive firepower all over the field.

It was a bit strange they made the deliberate decision not to feature the planting of the flag...nonetheless, the movie was nothing, if not patriotic.

Jeffress might end up with the White Sox at the rate he’s going in the playoffs. That Taylor catch really killed the Brewers’ momentum. We’ll see how Puig does in the WS. The Purdue/OSU game is much more compelling right now.

Personally, I think you should try to build a balanced team with 4-5 “complementary” (2-3 fWAR guys, like Moustakas) types, then you need 2 or 3 All-Star level players (one MVP/superstar would certainly be nice!) Like the Brewers, with their core of Yelich, Cain and Aguilar right now, with Moustakas/Shaw/Braun all being legit complementary threats as well. Or the Red Sox with Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, JD Martinez and Devers. You’re likely to have weak spots in CF, C, and SS, but you can’t have all three be easy outs, even with the DH.

If It Feels Like Capitalism is Killing You — That’s Because It is What American Collapse Teaches Us About Capitalism https://eand.co/if-it-feels-like-capitalism-is-killing-you-thats-because-it-is-304690c453a5 A lot of the underpinning of the FIRE Movement is contained in this article...it might be bleak, but it’s understandable that more people are starting to question the assumed “must work until 67 1/2 or 69” mindset. It’s meant to provoke, and push peoples’ buttons, and posit controversial ideas like Universal Basic Income paid for by corporations or higher taxes on everyone. The alternative is just refusing to jump on the Hamster Wheel at all. (Note: most parents aren’t exactly going to support that notion, but it’s not just “lazy Millennials” with this idea.)

Isn’t that Hawk’s buddy George from Windy City Limousines next to Marlins’ Man? Must be nice to be able to spend thousands of dollars on sports tickets per year, haha. Amazing play by Taylor in that situation...Dodgers’ pitching held the lead during the Hader innings. Ironic, our Vandy starter in Fulmer went backwards velocity-wise, Buehler consistently has been 3-5 mph better than college despite that thin frame.

Chacín was due for a shaky start after being so good. Obviously, putting Hader in early is going to be second guessed, but it felt inevitable that the Brewers were going to surrender more runs if they didn’t do something. Looks like Hader will be able to go at least 4 innings now.