caulfield12

The Phillies have been bad almost as long as the White Sox. It’s just their owner is more determined to write massive checks and make big splashes since they can’t turn back now after adding three big names last year and at least two more in this cycle (Gregorious being the other.)

Right now he’s looking closer to $65-80 million than $50-54 some initially predicted coming into the offseason. Low $60’s for three years or $70-75 million for four doesn’t sound so crazy anymore if you look at his 2019 numbers and block out all the other noise.

Twins’ fans will always have 1987 and 1991!!! They do have that new/er stadium...but losing 15 times consecutively in the playoffs to the Yankees and missing out on Wheeler would be completely demoralizing. Bringing back Odorizzi is similar to us resigning Abreu. And they’re having zero luck getting guys like Berrios and Buxton to sign extensions.

When has Boras ever signed a quick deal in a feeding frenzy? Ryu might (logically enough) wish to go back to LA and will likely wait until they sign someone OR miss all their primary targets first and then Ryu suddenly becomes extremely appealing. Boras controls Cole, Strasburg, Ryu and Keuchel. After Wheeler signs, everyone has to come to him. Those that don’t wish to play are left fighting over Bumgarner and Hamels.

But a position player in his 30’s, and even that comes with a significant amount of risk since catchers plateau earlier than any other position. Look no further than Mauer or Posey. But our last deal that long was rewarded internally to Danks...which obviously didn’t end well.

The trade for Greinke came at a high cost for Houston, though, which gave up three of its top five prospects according to MLB Pipeline: first baseman Seth Beer (No. 3) and right-handers J.B. Bukauskas (No. 4) and Corbin Martin (No. 5), in addition to infielder Josh Rojas (No. 22) and cash going to Arizona. Martin recently had Tommy John surgery and is out for the season. https://www.mlb.com/news/zack-greinke-astros-trade Without all the money coming from AZ, it doesn’t happen. The Astros’ system was really down by then...none of those three guys are comparable to Giolito, Moncada, Kopech, Lopez, Cease or Jimenez.

It forces Kopech, Cease or Lopez to be great...at least one...and Giolito to maintain his level.

Boras will be perfectly happy to raise the price on Ryu from 3/$54 to 4/$80. Then it will be too risky again.

It has to be after Year 4.

At the latest, by the end of the Winter Meetings next week...

The Nationals would have won the World Series without Corbin? The Red Sox without Price? Maybe the better argument is not to overspend AFTER winning a World Series.

The Twins, Reds and White Sox won’t go six...but the Phillies or Angels will. They already proved it last year on Harper.

Then we’re basically the Twins...and no, it doesn’t end well. That’s exactly why they jettisoned three members of their rotation in Gibson, Pineda and M.Perez. Some will argue just making the playoffs should pacify most fans after an eleven-year absence, but that won’t play very well here.

How would we ever realistically sign a true frontline starting pitcher in FA? This approach forces us into the second tier...and maybe it works to get us to the playoffs, but guys like Bumgarner, Keuchel and Hamels would likely get flattened as part of an American League post-season roster at this point in their careers. Getting Ryu away from LA and dealing with Boras seems like another fool’s errand. No extra years ever and fear of dealing with Boras in FA = mired in mediocrity unless Robert becomes another superstar to pair with Moncada.

$$$$$. Guaranteed money & years. Wins 97-98% of the time.

Not until he’s off the board and we have to put our trust in Scott Boras to come up with one of his remaining “top” starters in this market. Or they just lock in Bumgarner and Hamels quickly and cross their fingers they won’t be crushed at GRF.

They should have been watching Tatis, Jr., instead.

We can't afford Castellanos, Wheeler, DH (EE), RH bullpen and a second starter like Hamels. That's easily $65 million in additional payroll for 2020...in addition to Grandal and Abreu. Even with Collins/rotating DH, it's still at LEAST $55 million.

New owner of the Mariners? Sponsor of RussFest?

Arguably DH if you don’t believe in Zack Collins...

Philly just let Maikel Franco and Cesar Hernandez go...fwiw, Arrieta in last year of his deal. Also in hot pursuit of DiDi Gregorious. Its going to really suck if we have to deal with Boras on Ryu...fwiw, Bumgarner is represented by The Legacy Agency. Right now, Boras controls the top #1-2, #4, #6. Hamels and Wheeler are the other two without Boras Corp representation. https://theathletic.com/945374/2019/04/25/rosenthal-has-agent-scott-boras-failed-to-adapt-assessing-his-winners-and-losers-in-free-agency/

It remains to be seen if the Wheeler bidding will play out the way that it did for left-hander Patrick Corbin last winter. Some teams, including the Yankees, expressed a willingness to offer deals of five years, but were reluctant to offer a sixth year -- and Washington separated itself from the pack by dangling a six-year, $140 million contract. There seems to be a group of teams prepared to offer Wheeler five-year deals. https://tv5.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28222913/sources-phillies-seen-top-bidder-zack-wheeler

They will have beaten the Sox for Harper, Realmuto and Wheeler if he turns out to be right...

Harry Caray is still alive! Or at least Will Ferrell.

https://nypost.com/2019/12/03/zack-wheeler-ready-to-break-the-bank-with-bidding-war-nearly-over/ Time frame the next 2-3 days to the end of next week's Winter Meetings. White Sox, Reds, Twins, Rangers specifically mentioned. $100 million offer described as "in the right ballpark."