caulfield12

Iowa BB is officially back to relevance again...takes some of the sting off the FB season.

Twitter activity has about the same correlation (or Facebook likes) as predicting the eventual success or box office opening of a new movie. (Not to mention how many Millennials are opting out of social media altogether the last 2-3 years and are not being captured or represented at all.) It’s just one indicator. If you went by hats/jerseys/T-shirt’s worn or sold the last five years in the Midwest, you’d think it 90/10 Cubs to Sox.

Capitalism is Why Americans are Subsidizing the World’s Richest Man (LOL) Why American Ideas of the Way Societies Grow Wealthy and Prosper are Obsolete https://eand.co/capitalism-is-why-americans-are-subsidizing-the-worlds-richest-man-lol-8a775a22fdbb

Just a decade ago, one of the ESPN writers (Greenberg) posited that the Cubs and White Sox possessed the exact same local attendance. It was the regional tour groups and those who came from around the country/world due to the historic nature of Wrigley Field (and day baseball, to a lesser extent) that provided the Cubs another 25-35% on top of the local attendees. Not to mention the current disparity in corporate season tickets. When both teams are playing well (let’s say 2003-2008), the local numbers are basically a stalemate. Whether it’s 67/33 or 65/35 or even 60/40...it’s definitely not as lopsided as it appears now because of the dormant or inactive/in hiding Sox fans. You could probably argue the last half decade has shifted it another 5% or so towards the Cubs because of the last decade of kids in the city growing up with all Cubs, all the time...

Narvaez won’t repeat, Castillo isn’t on the next playoff roster (likely dumped at first opportunity to save some of his money), Collins will likely DH or play 1B and Zavala likely won’t be anything of significance.

Except who will they spend it on If Bryant is leaving and Rizzo is going to be phased out at roughly the same time?? Baez and Contreras (and catchers never age well) are your only two big ticket items if you can’t keep Bryant (or injury risk is too high). None of the other young names merit even $100 million investments at this point in their careers.

Essentially that solitary 10 fWAR season (out of 7) and “marketing” is being valued at $300 million in value. Three of the four best years came in his first four, as well. Are those great odds when you’re spending THAT much?

That would also give you five players in the lineup that should be counted on for 2.5-3.0 fWAR in Moncada, Anderson, Abreu, Puig, Grandal. You’ve got Robert and Madrigal that we can easily project there as well. That gives you seven. Leaving DH, and one OF position or 3B depending on Moncada...and you still have Collins/Davidson/Palka/Burger for the cheap DH option or go out and grab a Nelson Cruz. Add Brantley or Pollock at 3/$45, Grandal at 3/$42, god knows what Puig will get. CF Robert 2B Madrigal 3B Moncada DH ??? 1B Abreu RF Puig LF Brantley/Pollock C Grandal SS Anderson That gives you the best lineup in the Central, you go out and then add one veteran starting pitcher and two relievers over the next couple of offseasons. You don’t need to put all your eggs in Harper, Machado, Arenado. You can have a much more effective impact with Grandal, Brantley/Pollock, Puig and the three veteran pitchers to go with our young stable of prospects. Heck, you can even add Nelson Cruz for good measure, too. All of that for the same total spending as one Harper signing.

Because obviously they’re going to sign Yasiel Puig next year...all the Cubans (after Grandal, whose value was diminished by the postseason)! In all seriousness, Puig in terms of name recognition/marketing and at a much lower price tag is more of a Sox move than Harper. He’s somewhere between Belle and Machado on the character scale. And he would only be 28 next offseason, so that would work as well with the timeline. I’m not sure who else would move the scale. Arenado, maybe. Definitely not Rendon. Paul Goldschmidt, perhaps. We’re obviously not getting Trout. Ohtani would be another due to the Japanese media/marketing. I only mention Puig because he seems 5x or 10x more likely from a “Sox historical perspective” than Harper. He’s closer to the competing in 2020/21 timeline, too. 18.6 fWAR over 6 seasons, average of 3.1, with incredible variance...much like Harper, ranging from 5.1 to 1.1. Also similar to Harper, some of his biggest numbers were in his first couple of seasons in the big leagues. The problem is the last 4 years of Puig gives you a 2.4-2.5 average, but the last two an improved 3.2, which is worth how much to the White Sox? If you eliminate Harper’s 10 fWAR outlier season, he’s just 17.5 fWAR for 6 seasons, which is 1.1 less than Puig’s, actually. And 3 of Harper’s 7 best seasons were in his first four, another troubling sign. Yet Harper will get $400 million...it would seem MUCH wiser to sign the equivalent of 4 Puigs (one veteran starting pitcher, one elite reliever and someone like Grandal.) That way you’re adding 10-12, hopefully 15 fWAR at the same price in terms of total contract dollars as one Harper...and you’re spreading out that risk (or at least mitigating it) across 3-5 guys instead of putting all your eggs in one basket. Even a lineup with Grandal and Puig at $120-150 million should put up the bigger numbers than Harper at $400...and you still have roughly $250 million to play with, Rodon left to trade, maybe Abreu and the #3 pick in the draft.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/15/us/couple-homeless-man-gofundme/index.html Go Fund Me Scam "homeless guy loans $20 scam" revealed

Dodgers $204 M 25/$8.35 B 2014 2038 100% LINK Angels $118 M 20/$3 B 2012 2031 25% LINK Yankees $98 M 30/$5.7 B 2013 2042 20% LINK Red Sox $80 M 2006 80% LINK Mariners $76 M 18/$1.8 B 2014 2031 71% LINK Cubs $65 M 2004 2019 20% LINK Phillies $60 M 25/$2.5 B 2016 2040 25% LINK Astros $60 M 20/$1.6 B 2013 2032 No LINK Rangers $56 M 20/$1.6 B 2015 2034 10% LINK Tigers $55 M 10/$500 M 2009 2018 No LINK Giants $54 M 25/$1.75 B 2008 2032 30% LINK White Sox $51 M 2004 2019 20% LINK

I was simply talking about the INCREASE from our current numbers. The following post lists the regional (CSN Chicago/NBC-Universal) deal for the White Sox, which is at $51 million before it's renegotiated next year (includes WGN/WCIU, etc.) Then you have MLB Advanced Media, the BAM Tech deal...the Fox national deal, then ESPN/TBS/TNT/FS-1, etc. Just guessing, but we SHOULD be somewhere around the Mariners at $75 million...and that's not even considering the bump up with a Bryce Harper signing. While it's a bit strange to believe we'll have the 6th best deal in baseball after (we'll slot in after the Cubs) despite the rebuild and our terrible ratings over the last five years, it's actually quite possible and even logical because of the Chicago market's value. Another narrative to bust is the idea that fans are paying players’ salaries with tickets and hot dog sales (NODS AT GREG775). Look at how much baseball is making just from ONE national rights holder. It doesn’t include what ESPN pays MLB or what individual teams’ cable rights are worth. Those pay teams around $100 million annually on the high end and $20 million on the low end. Half the league is nestled between $35 million and $60 million. In 2018, total league salaries, according to Spotrac, were $4.1 billion — so you can see how TV rights alone give teams a decent headstart toward covering their payroll. And that doesn’t include all the other revenue streams like merchandise, digital rights and the money that MLB Advanced Media makes. For example: Every team got $50 million last year after BAM sold some of its assets to Disney. So with free agency about to kick up and the Winter Meetings around the corner, let’s use the new Fox-MLB deal as a reminder: MLB is healthy and has plenty of money. When players start landing eight -and nine-figure contracts, remember how much the league is bringing in. It’s just the players getting their fair share. https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb-fox-strike-new-5-1b-tv-deal-proves-baseball-isnt-close-dying-183048053.html

So basically the White Sox are looking at conservatively $40-50 million coming in per year...beginning with the new local broadcasting rights deal in 2020 (combined with the FOX upgrade). Optimistically, that turns into $50-75 million MORE per year with a Harper signing.

Does anyone have a link to how much MORE each team will receive as a result of this agreement on a national deal? We already know about the $68 million one-off payment for BAMTech/MLB Advanced Media.

Suze Orman broke the internet earlier this month when she told the “Afford Anything” podcast that those buying into the FIRE movement (financial independence, retire early) better save at least $5 million to achieve that goal. The overwhelming response: Are you nuts, rich lady? Emails poured in, tweetstorms raged, Reddit’s FIRE board lit up and bloggers everywhere, including Mr. Money Moustache, laid out perfectly sound reasons why Orman’s out of touch with millennials and the needs of the common man. But one popular personal finance blogger swam upstream right next to Orman, and he used his own experience to back his point. “Her views ruffled a lot of feathers, but after crunching the numbers, I have to agree — $5 million sounds about right if you want to retire before the age of 60,” the Financial Samurai blog’s Sam Dogen said. “Bad things happen in life all the time that costs money!” He pointed out that only 18% of Americans actually retire before the age of 61, so it makes sense that the masses took issue with Orman’s scenario — $5 million to $10 million isn’t an option for most. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-numbers-show-suze-orman-is-right-about-needing-5-million-to-retire-2018-10-15?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

As soon as the word "preference" was used...it became a political opinion, whether you choose to acknowledge it or not. Not to mention that MLB already has a system in place where women/minorities have to at least be granted interviews for positions like manager or GM if they are suitably qualified to redress the historical imbalances. That's not imposing an outcome on the final decision. There's a clear distinction at play here. Everything else is speculation or extrapolation.

There's a pretty significant difference between gossip/rumors in high school or middle school and actionable discrimination/sexual harassment civil court cases with monetary judgments attached. How often are there lifetime career/life consequences for something we simply SAY in high school? I'd say it's pretty rare.

Inflation! Of course, there could also be another recession that hits team’s bottom lines, but the general trend line is usually going to upwards...especially if he produces like expected and big market teams like NYY, LAA, Boston and LAD are interested in bidding.

Deliberately injecting an (at best) controversial political opinion into this thread was supposed to accomplish what exactly?

Well, that could always be said simply because he never had the opportunity to prove himself in a playoff game for the White Sox...and almost always tended to wear down in the 2nd half of seasons, when he would be most needed by contending teams. I'm not sure that ALL the questions about the playoffs have been completely answered for Chris, but saying Sale's not an ace is just like saying the same thing about Clayton Kershaw.

That and the quote about it being over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor and something about Paul Konerko's house in Glendale or Scottsdale and then J4L's constant promotion of LBJ as the GOAT. CSINAA MBINAA In Coop We Trust/Coop Will Fix 'Em

Thread derailed. (And MLB already has these policies for managerial and GM openings...not preferential hiring, but at least to offer the opportunity to interview for qualified applicants.) Maybe they'll hire only Asians who were discriminated against by Harvard because their SAT score profile was TOO GOOD compared to white students, lol. (Like that will ever happen.) In fact, talking about exploiting a niche market, the White Sox should simply hire all the Chinese and Indian quants who get paid 50% less in Silicon Valley and bring them each to Chicago to create a computer database/algorithm to rival the Astros. Boom. Problem solved.

The Braves have the revenue now with their new stadium and .... Changes in the Braves’ local television deals will generate about $500 million in additional revenue for the team “over the life of the contracts,” the chief executive of Braves owner Liberty Media revealed today. The TV deals were reworked last year, but Liberty CEO Greg Maffei, speaking on a quarterly conference call with Wall Street analysts, shed new light on the financial significance of the changes. “Through some good work at the management of the Braves and a confluence of events, we were able to renegotiate positively a bunch of those (TV) rights and receive probably in the order of $500 million of incremental revenue over the life of the contracts,” Maffei said. “So that’s been very positive. … That adds a lot of value, even on a present value basis, to the Braves.” Maffei said the Braves’ TV deals originally ran through 2027, but he didn’t say how long the renegotiated deals run.

Except I don't think they will sign UNLESS those pieces are (mostly) already in place...and JR's probably not going to authorize that (due to the fact that being stuck with a bunch of veterans they're going to have to dump on 1-2 year contracts without Harper/Machado would be a significant waste of resources). Which leaves them browsing in the March bargain bin, unless this whole situation can be resolved no later than mid-January. Or JR just blowing everyone out of the water (ala the Rangers with A-Rod) in order to force an early/earlier signing than Boras is anticipating.

Camargo can play 3B, SS, 2B and potentially LF. Basically, he's Marwin Gonzalez, with more natural SS ability. That would seem to push the meter in the direction of Harper, to replace Markakis. The Braves really make a lot of sense for Bryce, and of course you also have the Phillies in the same division fighting for his services. It's setting up quite well for Boras & Co.