caulfield12

Rumors the Rays are trying to put together a significant package for Ketel Marte.

Not enough elite velo to prove anything. Imai one of the few remaining in starting rotations that throw upper 90s, and he'll get somewhere in Cease/Valdez territory. Murakami will stay in the US even if it's just a 1-2 year prove it deal according to all reports. He believes he can get a huge contract after that at just age 26-27. Remember how rare FA's in that age range are...

And he's too old for a team at least two years away...Murakami has age and growth/potential in his favor. Two years from prime for him.

He's not going more than 2-3 years if he doesn't get 5-8 years as originally targeted. 8/$180 was the mlbtr projection. A non contender/guaranteed playing time situation away from the major media markets makes some sense. But a deal for just two years or maybe three doesn't help the Sox as much as teams like the Pirates Red Sox Reds Mariners and Padres that are in win now mode and have (quite) relatively limited budgets. Then he crushes the ball and is off to the Dodgers to replace Muncy/Freeman.

"ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote on Thursday that Fairbanks was trending towards either a multi-year deal or a one-year contract worth more than $11MM. While it’d seem counterintuitive for teams to pay more than the declined option price, that occasionally happens. Option calls are due within the first five days of the offseason. Teams may have preferred to maintain payroll flexibility until they had a better read on the market." mlbtr.com "In an appearance on Foul Territory this week, Izaac Azout of Fish On First suggested that Miami has shown a willingness to offer a one-year deal in “the mid-teens” range and floated the possibility that Miami could make a $13-14MM proposal."

espn/Passan In fact, the top five players on Kiley McDaniel's ranking of the top 50 free agents are still without a team. The ones who have signed are running about $140 million over his estimates, a difference comprised almost entirely by the three biggest deals: Dylan Cease for $210 million ($65 million over expectations), Pete Alonso for $155 million ($45 million) and Kyle Schwarber for $150 million ($22 million). McDaniel's overall projection of $3.46 billion leaves plenty of money left to be spent throughout the rest of free agency. Considering the Boston Red Sox haven't signed a player, the New York Yankees have spent just $5 million on free agents and the bottom 20 teams have spent less combined ($207 million) than the top team (Toronto Blue Jays, $277 million), there will be deals aplenty coming soon. One team that could make a last-minute jump for the player are the Padres. After re-signing veteran pitcher Michael King and South Korean infielder Sung-Mun Song, the Padres could be turning their attention to the Japanese slugger. On the December 19 edition of “Foul Territory,” Baseball America’s Geoff Pontes reported that San Diego have met with Murakami. https://heavy.com/sports/mlb/san-diego-padres/munetaka-murakami-blue-jays-mets-news/

Boston feels like tentative favorites to sign the Japanese slugger as things stand. That doesn't mean other suitors won't submit their bids. It doesn't mean that a total dark horse, such as Pittsburgh, Miami or even the White Sox, can't swoop out of nowhere and spoil Boston's plans. Breslow is clearly taking the patient, risk-averse approach to this offseason. But, the stars are well aligned, and Murakami addresses Boston's primary needs as well as any free agent left on the market. That eerie quiet around Murakami's name in the rumor mill could play right into Boston's hands. As Katie Manganelli of BoSox Injection points out, the primary argument against signing Alonso to the five-year, $155 million contract he ultimately received from Baltimore was simple: age. Murakami won't age out of his prime on his contract. In fact, he could improve over the course of it. Factor in the apparent lack of interest, and the Red Sox are in prime position to address their biggest need at a price tag even Craig Breslow can stomach. https://fansided.com/mlb/munetaka-murakami-rumors-red-sox-favored-mariners-could-blow-japan-return

Quero not listed as a trade option if the Phillips aren't able to re-sign Realmuto. "The Phils’ trade conversations may be due diligence for now. They still seem likelier than not to figure something out with Realmuto. If that doesn’t come together, speculative trade options include Pedro Pagés, J.C. Escarra, Connor Wong and Jose Trevino."

$500 million debt / $1.75 billion 28.6% But the announcement in Minnesota was just a 20% minority share allotted/allocated across three groups. White Sox $150 million debt / $1.8-2.0 billion valuation That would be just 7-8% of the team to Ishbias, plus whatever he was able to buy from minority shareholders at a $1.8 valuation. Spitball guess... Reinsdorf/sons (control shares, a surprising number reportedly sold to sons instead of Ishbias) 42% Ishbias 48% Remaining minority shareholders 10%????? We also don't know if the remaining minority shareholders were asked to pay down any of the outstanding debt (or if 100% Ishbia). OR What they would be expected to contribute to a potential new stadium??

The White Sox situation has to be quite similar. "Selling more than 20 percent of the franchise to three minority partnership groups at a $1.75 billion valuation, the Pohlad family is expected to announce this week they’ve finalized a transaction that helps a club $500 million in debt return to a sound financial footing while also requiring the addition of three seats to the team’s ownership advisory board, league sources told The Athletic." Those investments have been finalized, and the new partners in the club are Glick Family Investments, George G. Hicks and Craig Leipold. Leipold is best known to Minnesotans as the owner of the NHL’s Minnesota Wild. "I don't want to get into how much of the team was sold and who is responsible for what,” Pohlad said. “I would say it was an amount that we were happy with and an amount that aimed to achieve our primary objective, which is to put this organization onto better financial footing, if you will. So with these proceeds, we're able to pay off a significant amount of debt, and that will allow us to reinvest in this team when the time is right." https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-ownership-group-welcomes-new-limited-partners

"The Marlins are one of three teams, along with Houston and Colorado, that have never signed a Japanese player directly from NPB. This would be a hell of a time to make history in that regard, but based on their thrifty signing of Christopher Morel to reportedly handle first base, I’m not holding my breath."

"But if San Diego is able to unload some salary in a trade or two — and if it can conjure up a creative contract offer that limits the upfront financial burden for the club — Murakami’s fit on this roster is as clean as any across the league, given the Padres’ glaring holes at DH and first base crying out for an influx of upside (with all due respect to Gavin Sheets’ modest late-career breakout). The Padres have a particular need for over-the-fence power, having ranked 28th in home runs in 2025, and general manager A.J. Preller has been chasing star power his entire career. Even factoring in the risks, Murakami could represent a unique opportunity to extend this team’s contention window with another impact talent potentially entering his prime and flip the narrative that this winter is all about downsizing for San Diego." https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/mlb-free-agency-why-every-team-will-or-wont-sign-munetaka-murakami-203809390.html#chicago-white-sox

Source for Murakami to Sox in 24-48 hours rumor lol. This practically guarantees it will be the Padres on a 2-3 year deal. They're the only small market team the last 6-7 years embarrassing everyone else at the bottom into spending. There's also the token signings by teams like Oak Pitt Miami to create necessary illusions that they're attempting to compete. Seemingly posturing by owners before labor negotiations..."at least we tried." Sort of. Chicago White Sox Adding Murakami would be a fun way to inject some much-needed excitement on the South Side and would offer Murakami a lower-stakes setting to adjust to major-league pitching, but it would also be a sizable risk that this front office (and ownership group) is probably uninterested in taking at this stage of its rebuild. yahoosports

"Consider the hypothetical scenario: Murakami takes something like a two-year guarantee, demonstrates 40 home-run type power, plays passable defense at third or first base, leverages an ability to speak English into stardom and re-enters the free-agent market at 28 years old. Then, he might be in line for hundreds of millions of dollars. Of course, that is merely one favorable script in a wide range of possible outcomes. The posting fee attached to Murakami complicates the idea of a shorter deal. A club might not want to tack on an additional fee to a short-term contract on a young player. More money, more risk. From the clubs’ perspective, though, a long-term deal might present even more of a challenging bet. Generally speaking, teams are more comfortable developing and predicting performances for Japanese pitchers than position players. Murakami is not a perfect fit for the models clubs use and depend on to make decisions in free agency." https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6898364/2025/12/18/mlb-munetaka-murakami-free-agency-update/ Short term deals pretty much kill the White Sox chances here. This is where scouting and backgrounding his character/work ethic on the ground is critical.

Someone in Toronto must want to fake out another fanbase after what has happened with Ohtani and Sasaki, lol.

GuerreroEnjoyer @aidan54186539 Toronto sports enjoyer Toronto, Ontario Joined May 2020 1,734 Following 651 Followers

"There’s obvious risk in this profile. Miguel Sano jumps to mind as a faux third baseman with 80 power who could never make enough contact to stick even as a first baseman. On the flip side of the coin, there are scenarios where Murakami is effectively a lite version of Kyle Schwarber’s skill set — but eight years younger with more defensive value as a competent first baseman. The range of outcomes is all over the place on Murakami, but the upside here is tantalizing enough that we’re predicting a huge investment — likely one with opt-outs along the way. There will be a sizable cost on top of the contract guaranteed to Murakami himself. The signing club would owe a posting fee to the Swallows that is proportional to the size of the contract: 20% of the deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of spending thereafter. A $180MM contract would come with a posting fee just shy of $29MM. It’s worth noting that the posting fee is not part of a team’s competitive balance tax calculation." 8/$180 million + $29 million posting fee Sure, why not a $209 million investment???

"San Diego Padres explore sale of team two years after owner Seidler's death. LAS VEGAS — The San Diego Padres, who are about $300 million in debt, are exploring the possibility of selling the franchise, the team announced Thursday at the end of the GM Meetings." Go look at the Forbes team valuations in 2006 and compare to 2025. https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2006/04/21/The-Back-Of-The-Book/Forbes-Releases-MLB-Franchise-Valuations-Yankees-Top-$1B/ The franchise values have BOTH increased to roughly $1.8 billion...but SD has been one of the most entertaining teams since 2019 and a constant Top 5 attendance presence. 4/6 playoffs made, etc. Four playoff series victories. Knocked off Dodgers in 2022. SD is just over luxury tax threshold 2025. $4-5 million in luxury tax. Also just added almost $90 million in new contracts this week. Darvish Bogaerts Cronenworth Merrill Musgrove Tatis Machado all over $100 million...Tatis/Machado $330ish. Added Pivetta $55 million last off season. King @ $75 million. Two very distinct ways to run a team, but ending up in the same franchise valuations despite one being decidedly small market. The only difference is $150 million in debt. But still $200 million less debt than the Twins.

The problem is can anyone be sure about Tucker for $300-425 million? Those sure things like a Tyler Glasnow or Dylan Cease have even more risk attached at peak FA rates. Same with Valdez and Imai, for that matter. Would anyone be really excited about Bellinger, for that matter? Enough to go out and buy a new jersey? You need the type of players little kids dream about being (see PCA). That's also part of the inherent responsibility of owners in the entertainment business.

Tier B is where the White Sox have committed almost all of their big FA mistakes.

WestEddy named as Getz lieutenant?

And Okamoto would be 30-31, then 32-33 in the years they most needed him to perform. Equally risky, albeit maybe 60% of the financial commitment of Murakami.

Shock the world...you've got Darvsh rehabbing, new Korean infielder and Matsui, Japanese reliever to sell SD. That would also put them in play for Imai...who seemed headed for AL/NL East or SFG. Also, Sasaki had them second, Toronto third.

Two Ivy Leaguers...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/nine-teams-exceeded-luxury-tax-threshold-in-2025.html https://global.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47360963/dodgers-hit-record-169m-luxury-tax-winning-2nd-straight-ws