caulfield12

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:17 AM) Moustakas is a hole-plugger. A good hole-plugger, but he's not a cornerstone player. The problem is, we don't know where the holes will be in a year or 2. We can assume it won't be corner OF or 2B. We have a good amount of pitching in the pipeline. But after that? We have 2 catchers in the org, both of whom are a long way away. We don't have much in CF. I thought L. Garcia showed promise, but even if he fully develops, what exactly do we have? An average CF or slightly above. And the Sox have a couple of others at about that level. Anderson should improve at SS - but if he does, we're probably looking at Alexei. Not exactly a Correa. So, really, even if some of the guys develop, they will be slightly above average players....we already have our Moustakas'. Sure one non-heralded prospect could really pop - we'll see. But I'm more confident in 2 or 3 of the Delmonico's/Leurys popping into rosterable players, not stars. The Astros went into last year with overt weak-spots at 1B, LF and starting pitching. It would have also been RF, but they signed Reddick. So what happened? 33 year old Castillo has a great year. Marwin Gonzalez, barely a .700 OPS hitter over several years, balloons to .900 OPS. Marisnick, who couldn't hit .700 OPS, exceeds .800 OPS as a 4th outfielder. 33 year old Charlie Morton has a career year and they trade for Verlander. Career years are common in WS winners. But regardless, the Astros were solid at most positions. Then filled their holes. Castillo? The real question is how much does having a playoff-competitive team for most of the 2019 season leverage the broadcasting rights deal to allow the Sox to absorb a megacontract? What comes first, the chicken or the egg? How much would signing Harper or Machado push up their media deals? Or do JR and son prefer to wait...deciding how much to allocate depending on how much rights increase? (Also taking into consideration the $50 million from BAM Tech merger.) The old saying, you have to spend money to make money...is our philosophy to have three players like Robert/Avi/Abreu for roughly the price of one Donaldson in total contract dollars, to “spread the risk” so to speak? To sign three to five youngsters like Robert/Adolfo or one megacontract? 2019...in that scenario, for the White Sox, is 2013 for the Royals and 2015 for the Cubs/Astros, with everything pushed ahead of schedule by at least half a season. How hard will that timetable be to resist for a franchise hitting ten years without a playoff appearance? What happens if Jimenez, Moncada, Kopech and Robert fail to meet expectations or get hurt in 2018/19 (see Rodon) and that team disappoints? That’s the worst-case scenario, certainly, with Balta’s bright predictions being the opposite.

2020 Chicago White Sox $35 million Machado/Arenado 3B $4 million Tim Anderson SS Yoan Moncada 2B $21 million Jose Abreu 1B Burger DH Jimenez/Robert/??? ($13-15 million Avi Garcia) Collins C $15 million Elite closer Rodon Kopech Giolito Hansen Dunning/López That puts you at $75 million for just four players. (Obvious hope is to develop our own closer, not need to add a veteran starter...quite a few will argue against keeping Abreu at that point for that price. I suppose that you could argue for $70 million and extend Avi Garcia instead.)

The Atlantic Kevin Lamarque / Reuters Wayne LaPierre’s Cynical Exploitation of Outrage The NRA executive vice president’s pugnacious speech on Thursday provoked an indignant response—exactly as he’d aimed to do. But more often, post-shooting discussions have reverted to stalemate, and as LaPierre knows, stalemate favors the NRA. Existing gun laws are relatively loose, and all the NRA needs to win is to prevent immediate action, or else limit regulation to tinkering around the margins. LaPierre’s claims will upset and alienate many Americans, but from the NRA’s standpoint, that’s the point. When LaPierre says wild things, the mainstream media covers them; when the mainstream media covers them, it gins up NRA supporters, who renew memberships, send new money, or rededicate themselves to lobbying their representatives. It doesn’t matter that most people will be angry at what LaPierre says. After all, poll after poll after poll has shown majority support for a range of gun-control measures, but the NRA has learned to achieve its goals with a small but staunch base. This kind of base-oriented strategy is reminiscent of Trump’s approach to politics. It’s probably not a coincidence that LaPierre, echoing Trump, attacked “the unbelievable failure of the FBI” Thursday morning. Trump also tweeted supportively before LaPierre’s speech: “What many people don’t understand, or don’t want to understand, is that Wayne, Chris and the folks who work so hard at the @NRA are Great People and Great American Patriots. They love our Country and will do the right thing.” The danger for Trump is that it’s hard to be reelected with a small, embattled base and massive disapproval. Not so for the NRA, which functions quite effectively that way. Even for LaPierre, there is a risk in his strategy of provocation. Someday he may go too far and incur a backlash even from his supporters. Perhaps this is that day, though there’s no particular reason to believe that at this point. The thing to remember is that outlandish statements at venues like CPAC aren’t an unforced error or a lapse in judgment. They are a carefully calibrated, and thus far highly successful, strategic choice. He also falsely warned seniors this week that seeking assistance with tax filing would get them put on a national “mental impairment” list that would allow “the Feds” to take their guns away...

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:51 PM) Trump just ran with a debunked conspiracy theory about the town hall last night. He’s that dumb CNN was right to do what they did. Too many scripted speeches from students and parents, all competing to go viral or create gotcha moments against Rubio or the NRA. That Alyadheff woman went on for maybe five minutes, and must have asked 10-12 questions at one time. Then she screamed at the end, because shouting at Trump got her so much attention the first time she was interviewed in the days afterward. It had nothing to do with a conspiracy (see Clinton/Brazile)...a Republican, Trump voting teacher who shielded 65 kids in her room argued strongly against arming teachers. The exact same point was covered in a more effective way that the student (interviewed by Tucker Carlson) wanted to bring up. The end.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 10:36 PM) The Sox went up to a $128M payroll back in 2011. They will most certainly get back up to that level with all the new revenue streams in place. I feel like a $150M or so payroll in a few years is fairly realistic. As for holes, I seriously doubt they add a SP for big money. Kopech, Giolito, & Lopez will all gets shots at proving whether or not they are major league caliber starters. We still have Rodon to fill a spot. Hansen could be up by the end of this year. Dunning isn’t too far off. Plus potential back-end guys like Stephens, Adams, & Guerrero will ready and waiting for a shot at a spot. I think they’ll stick with what they have internally for the rotation. CF will likely be one of internal guys (Leury, Tilson, Engel, Cordell) or a free agent on a short-term deal. They will not want to block Robert. We should be able to find a DH if needed at a reasonable rate. Yes, I definitely see us adding one impact reliever and that could be fairly pricey. But at this point in time (I know it’s stilll early), I’m not seeing all these holes that will have to be plugged long-term by expansive free agents. And we can always use some of our prospect depth to acquire more cost-controlled players to fill some gaps if necessary. A lot depends on Anderson and Rodon. If Moncada, Jimenez and Robert each fulfilled their potential, then we’re in really good shape. We still have concerns about catcher and 3B, and aren’t sure what to do with Abreu and Garcia...extending either will be another chunk of change, with Abreu maybe $65 million for three years. Realistically, going forward they have to look at 3b, catcher, an elite closer and a veteran #2 starting pitcher, because the odds of Giolito, Lopez, Kopech and Fulmer/Dunning all holding up as reliable starters isn’t that high. Sure, maybe we get that closer internally (Cease?)...maybe Collins develops as predicted when we drafted him, but a LOT of things have to go right to not have 3-4 critical roster issues heading into 2020. The Nats are likely to lose Harper, they will put everything they’ve got into retaining Rendon...

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 08:58 PM) How are we in trouble by targeting high-end talent? As has been mentioned repeatedly, we can go get a player like Moustakas if we miss out on those top guys when said player is needed. We don’t have to settle right now. I think some of you guys are so used to the old way of doing things that you honestly think Moose as good as it gets. There are four elite 3B options in Machado, Donaldson, Arenado, & Rendon hitting free agency over the next two years. We will have as much financial flexibility as anyone to add one of these guys. While I think Machado is a long-shot because of the Yankees, I think any of the other three are realistic possibilities. And if we really want to win a World Series, we should be doing everything in our power to add a star, 5+ WAR player at 3B (our biggest area of weakness) rather settle for a 2 to 3 WAR guy that will cost us $12M to $16M in wasted season plus a pick. We’ll see. Odds are 50/50 that Rendon or Arenado stay put...so that quickly cuts the realistic list back down to Donaldson and one of those two. Do the Sox have the will to win a bidding war in the $150+ million range? We can argue if Moustakas is a 2-3 or 3-4. His 2015 and 2016 extrapolated/abbreviated numbers would argue the latter. If he was 32, I wouldn’t be arguing for him. I’d also argue the odds are greater for Moustakas than Avi Garcia in 2018, for example...especially Moustakas playing in a hitter friendly park for the first time.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 07:30 PM) But he’s not a really good player. That’s the point. Unless his defense rebounds, he’s really an average player. And if we’re unwilling to consider players in their 30’s to fill any roles our rebuild is going to be in trouble. If our sights for every position are a Top 5 player, we’re also in trouble. He’s a good player. And he’s still in his prime, and LH.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 07:12 PM) Why are these five along with Moustakas the only five options? Why can’t we trade for someone when the time is right if necessary. The Giants just acquired a very comparable player in Longoria. I could see Kyle Seager becoming available at some point in the near future. These markets are dynamic and with the amount of teams rebuilding players who were once considered off-limits may become available. Now we are back to guys in their 30’s again. Longoria has been very solid the last four years, but he’s owed $81 million for age 32-36. Moustakas is only 29. It’s just very rare you can get a really good player not approaching his down curve or with a very expensive contract.

QUOTE (KagakuOtoko @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 03:05 PM) He's just trying to rile up the rabid dog base that is CPAC. But the muslims tidbit is 100% bulls***. Apparently he missed Cameron’s True Lies. Since China can’t be the enemy in American anymore movies due to the growing influence of box office here...the go to enemy is either random Middle Eastern Jihadists, North Korea or Russia in about 90% of movies. Maybe Colombian/Mexican drug lords in the other 10%, or Somalian pirates. Now that the students are using their experience to push for stricter gun control, Ben Shapiro wonders for National Review, despite the left’s rapt attention, “[w]hat, pray tell, did these students do to earn their claim to expertise?” “[High-school students from Parkland have] now been trotted out by advocates of gun control as newfound authorities on the evils of the Second Amendment,” Shapiro writes. “Are children innocents or are they leaders? Are teenagers fully autonomous decision-makers, or are they lumps of mental clay, still being molded by unfolding brain development?” “The answer seems to be relatively simple: Children and teenagers are not fully rational actors,” Shapiro concludes. “They’re not capable of exercising supreme responsibilities. And we shouldn’t be treating innocence as a political asset used to push the agenda of more sophisticated players.” http://amp.slate.com/news-and-politics/201...dirty-work.html Apparently he missed the entire Civil Rights movement...

Does treason against Israel count...? Well, I guess they don’t reallycare because Jared’s simply doing a great job, embassy moved, a foundering Netanyahu loves Trump, etc. http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/trumps-discl...ory?id=47449304

QUOTE (hi8is @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 01:11 PM) Ah duh. Daniel Hudsen was the main trade chip in return. Hudson. Still hanging in there as a reliever after two TJ surgeries.

Following suit with the rest of the league, Mike Moustakas went off in the power department last season, besting his previous career-high home-run total by 16. His hard-hit rate actually fell nearly six percentage points to 31.9 percent, but Moustakas got the ball in the air more often -- his flyball rate jumped from 39.6 percent to 45.7 percent -- and that was the driving force behind the homer spike. He was also a far more aggressive hitter, upping his Swing% from 42.1 percent to 55.6 percent, and while that led to a precipitous drop in walk rate, the new approach proved beneficial on the whole. The 29-year-old improved against same-handed pitching, batting .270/.296/.467 against lefties (.241/.291/.396 for career) and kept his contact rate over 80 percent. It may very well prove to be his career year, but a move to a more hitter-friendly home park should keep Moustakas' production from falling off too much. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/...mike-moustakas/ Of course, in 2015 he had a 4.4 WAR and was heading that way before the knee injury in 2016. Last year, he was below 2 in a career year due to the leg on defense. He was also bothered the last 5-6 weeks of 2017 by the knee. That’s where Herm Schneider comes in.

Even if you do it that way, he’s one of the best 100 out of 300 who had the most playing time for each team. Hence, well above average. Let’s think of this another way. Which players that are better than him are available without gutting our farm system? If I argued Josh Harrison, the argument would be that Yolmer is better or certainly cheaper. So, other than Machado (who might not even want to play 3b), Donaldson, Rendon and Arenado, who’s really out there? At least two of those guys will probably re-sign, so you’re back in the box of chasing 33-37 year old Josh Donaldson with $140-165 million over four years. Is Burger likely to be a 3 war third baseman in 2020? Odds, knowing his defensive issues...?

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 05:05 PM) HOW DARE YOU QUESTION THAT HERO? Lets attack the paid students. Just like every teacher wielding a gun would then become the first targets of the attacker. Since public school records have to be published, it would be easy to research exactly who has certification and permits to carry a gun. Also, for all we know, ex military suffering from PTSD might not react well under stressful combat conditions after 10-15 years away from that environment. Just like this SRO apparently.

NRA seems to be mostly upset with shootings where lots of white people are killed because that gets more coverage than random Chicago gang violence...basically, mass shootings of upper class heterosexual whites (Pulse and Sutherland Springs don’t fit) is the ONLY thing that really puts pressure on the gun lobby See LV, Aurora, Columbine, Sandy Hook. "Now I'm not saying that you love the tragedy," she continued, "but I am saying you love the ratings." She added: "Crying white mothers are ratings gold to you." Loesch noted that her choice to highlight "crying white mothers" was intentional, because "there are thousands of grieving black mothers in Chicago every weekend and you don't see town halls for them, do you?" Loesch on Wednesday night attended a CNN town hall with the survivors of the high school shooting in Parkland, Florida, where 17 people were killed by a teenager with a semiautomatic rifle. "Where's the CNN town hall for Chicago? Where's the CNN town hall for sanctuary cities?" she asked. Watch her remarks (which start at 0:20) below. Kelly O'Meara Morales http://theweek.com/speedreads/756858/nras-...re-good-ratings

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 08:56 AM) I can't see the Sox handing a player like Moustakas a five year deal. Why would we be bidding against ourselves for a player we may not even want? His low OBP frightens me, as he is a career .251 avg, .305 OBP hitter. Any slip in that batting average and we are talking about a hitter who majorly struggles to get on base. His defense is not good enough to offset that either. He completely changed his offensive approach in 2015 and started to take more pitches to the opposite field. Realistically, he’s a much better hitter from 2015-17, albeit one year lost to injury. If we did that with Avi, aggregated his career stats, he would seem to be a bottom 10-15% player or sub replacement level guy. .277, .329 OBP, 746 ops, only one career year over 1 WAR... When Moustakas’ defense is above average, he’s a 3-4 WAR player. And he’s still just 29.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 01:49 AM) The last three years (f'n BR can't do simple math): Frazier 3.7 WAR per 650 PA Moustakas 3.4 WAR per 650 PA Cozart 4.7 WAR per 650 PA Like I said he at best deserves Cozart money and that would be an overpay in my opinion. Your Frazier comparison is spot on though in all fairness to Moustakas he does deserve a little more and probably an extra year because of age. Cozart’s WAR is boosted heavily from playing SS at a high level. Hard to compare. Jarrod Dyson has averaged 2.5 war the last five seasons and 2.7 the last four. Average # plate appearances=264 If you extrapolate to 650, he has the highest WAR by far, it would be in the 6-7 range. Yet he just signed for $7.5 million over two years. Statistics can be misleading.

If there’s no difference between age 29 and age 32 and zero premium value to being left-handed in a RH heavy lineup and already having established a comfort level in our division...then Frazier and Moustakas can be seen as comparable. If that’s all that mattered, purely numbers from 2016, Moustakas wouldn’t be looking at $50 million and Machado $250 million.

QUOTE (Brian @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:23 PM) Rubio is a slug and a hack. Don’t fall for it. We’ll see what happens when the rubber hits the road with actual votes that go against the NRA and majority of the GOP caucus.

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 09:55 PM) Did you just compare Josh Donaldson to Robin Ventura?? HAHAHAH Rolen, Ventura and Beltre are three of the best all-around 3b the last 20-25 years. Who else can you come up with for past aging examples? Ken Caminiti’s not the best because of steroids and how his life completely went off the rails. Eric Chavez? Matt Williams? Willams was at 3.8 as a 33 year old and fell off a cliff, averaging 0.3 his last four years. Mike Schmidt? Buddy Bell? Chipper Jones put up 7.4 and 7.1 at age 35/36. Followed up with 2.1, 2.2, 2.4 and 2.6 from 37-40. So Josh Donaldson’s going to join two HoFers in Beltre/Jones or he’s going to fall apart at 35-37.

Rubio stood his ground as well as possible. At least he showed up. He’s trying to find the middle ground of separating himself from Trump and the NRA without burning any bridges...because he will run for President again. That said, he comes across more empathetically than most Republicans. Someone has to compromise in the middle, on both sides. Not an easy thing to achieve in such as poisonous Beltway/DC environment.

Robin Ventura 32 6.4 33 1.6 34 2.3 35 3.4 36 1.6 37 0.1 Retired Worth 9 exactly war his last 5 seasons.

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:08 PM) His body of work is nothing spectacular. Look at his entire career. He had a career year. He’s not a difference maker. I’d rather see us offer the most money to the Machado, Arenado, and Harper group and if none of them take it then we start filling out the team with lesser tier players like this. The equivalent of Dunn, Cabrera, Robertson and LaRoche won’t be accepted by fans this time around. Second tier/excuses will be supported about as well as the 2012 team was...unless they just fly out there like the 2000/05/06 teams. Not when the Padres have two guys now with bigger deals than the Sox have ever offered.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:28 PM) He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR. David Ortiz, Ped whispers aside...the only other. Maybe Scott Rolen is the best comp. Age 34 4.9 Age 35 3.9 Age 36 1.5 Age 37 0.3 Retired We would be buying Donaldson at ages 33-37. 2019 is probably one year early. So $150 million for his 2020 and 2021 seasons when we have to be good. Probably having $50-60 million of bad money at the back end when that roster suddenly becomes increasingly expensive. Not to mention the lack of certainty about Abreu’s mid 30’s level of productivity.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:03 PM) I’d probably be willing to go 5/$150M. Below is a somewhat conservative aging curve for Donaldson: fWAR 2019: 5.0 2020: 4.5 2021: 4.0 2022: 3.5 2023: 3.0 Total: 20.0 Assuming $8M/WAR and that’s a pretty fair deal. And I honestly think there’s a solid chance he provides more than 20 WAR during that time period. Regardless, he’d remain a useful player over the life of the contract and to me that’s very important. Moose suddenly becomes a below average player with even a little bit of regression. This will be interesting to watch pay out, at any rate. Josh Donaldson alone doesn’t put butts in the seats, but winning consistently does. If you’re willing to spend $150 million, the marketing department will argue that Bryce Harper might be worth $300 million because that will blow up your new broadcasting rights deal in a way that few others could (Sale clearly not one of them, despite his greatness.) But what happens to the morale of fanbase if we swing and miss on all the big names? Fans are much more likely to get enthusiastic about a middle of the order compared to a #2 starter and closer. Machado, Arenado, Ohtani...they move the meter too, but who else fits in that category? Seems the odds are much higher that Moncada, Jimenez, Kopech, Robert or Micker Adolfo becomes that superstar, rather than bidding for one at absolute peak of the market.