caulfield12

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 08:56 AM) I can't see the Sox handing a player like Moustakas a five year deal. Why would we be bidding against ourselves for a player we may not even want? His low OBP frightens me, as he is a career .251 avg, .305 OBP hitter. Any slip in that batting average and we are talking about a hitter who majorly struggles to get on base. His defense is not good enough to offset that either. He completely changed his offensive approach in 2015 and started to take more pitches to the opposite field. Realistically, he’s a much better hitter from 2015-17, albeit one year lost to injury. If we did that with Avi, aggregated his career stats, he would seem to be a bottom 10-15% player or sub replacement level guy. .277, .329 OBP, 746 ops, only one career year over 1 WAR... When Moustakas’ defense is above average, he’s a 3-4 WAR player. And he’s still just 29.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 01:49 AM) The last three years (f'n BR can't do simple math): Frazier 3.7 WAR per 650 PA Moustakas 3.4 WAR per 650 PA Cozart 4.7 WAR per 650 PA Like I said he at best deserves Cozart money and that would be an overpay in my opinion. Your Frazier comparison is spot on though in all fairness to Moustakas he does deserve a little more and probably an extra year because of age. Cozart’s WAR is boosted heavily from playing SS at a high level. Hard to compare. Jarrod Dyson has averaged 2.5 war the last five seasons and 2.7 the last four. Average # plate appearances=264 If you extrapolate to 650, he has the highest WAR by far, it would be in the 6-7 range. Yet he just signed for $7.5 million over two years. Statistics can be misleading.

If there’s no difference between age 29 and age 32 and zero premium value to being left-handed in a RH heavy lineup and already having established a comfort level in our division...then Frazier and Moustakas can be seen as comparable. If that’s all that mattered, purely numbers from 2016, Moustakas wouldn’t be looking at $50 million and Machado $250 million.

QUOTE (Brian @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:23 PM) Rubio is a slug and a hack. Don’t fall for it. We’ll see what happens when the rubber hits the road with actual votes that go against the NRA and majority of the GOP caucus.

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 09:55 PM) Did you just compare Josh Donaldson to Robin Ventura?? HAHAHAH Rolen, Ventura and Beltre are three of the best all-around 3b the last 20-25 years. Who else can you come up with for past aging examples? Ken Caminiti’s not the best because of steroids and how his life completely went off the rails. Eric Chavez? Matt Williams? Willams was at 3.8 as a 33 year old and fell off a cliff, averaging 0.3 his last four years. Mike Schmidt? Buddy Bell? Chipper Jones put up 7.4 and 7.1 at age 35/36. Followed up with 2.1, 2.2, 2.4 and 2.6 from 37-40. So Josh Donaldson’s going to join two HoFers in Beltre/Jones or he’s going to fall apart at 35-37.

Rubio stood his ground as well as possible. At least he showed up. He’s trying to find the middle ground of separating himself from Trump and the NRA without burning any bridges...because he will run for President again. That said, he comes across more empathetically than most Republicans. Someone has to compromise in the middle, on both sides. Not an easy thing to achieve in such as poisonous Beltway/DC environment.

Robin Ventura 32 6.4 33 1.6 34 2.3 35 3.4 36 1.6 37 0.1 Retired Worth 9 exactly war his last 5 seasons.

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:08 PM) His body of work is nothing spectacular. Look at his entire career. He had a career year. He’s not a difference maker. I’d rather see us offer the most money to the Machado, Arenado, and Harper group and if none of them take it then we start filling out the team with lesser tier players like this. The equivalent of Dunn, Cabrera, Robertson and LaRoche won’t be accepted by fans this time around. Second tier/excuses will be supported about as well as the 2012 team was...unless they just fly out there like the 2000/05/06 teams. Not when the Padres have two guys now with bigger deals than the Sox have ever offered.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:28 PM) He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR. David Ortiz, Ped whispers aside...the only other. Maybe Scott Rolen is the best comp. Age 34 4.9 Age 35 3.9 Age 36 1.5 Age 37 0.3 Retired We would be buying Donaldson at ages 33-37. 2019 is probably one year early. So $150 million for his 2020 and 2021 seasons when we have to be good. Probably having $50-60 million of bad money at the back end when that roster suddenly becomes increasingly expensive. Not to mention the lack of certainty about Abreu’s mid 30’s level of productivity.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:03 PM) I’d probably be willing to go 5/$150M. Below is a somewhat conservative aging curve for Donaldson: fWAR 2019: 5.0 2020: 4.5 2021: 4.0 2022: 3.5 2023: 3.0 Total: 20.0 Assuming $8M/WAR and that’s a pretty fair deal. And I honestly think there’s a solid chance he provides more than 20 WAR during that time period. Regardless, he’d remain a useful player over the life of the contract and to me that’s very important. Moose suddenly becomes a below average player with even a little bit of regression. This will be interesting to watch pay out, at any rate. Josh Donaldson alone doesn’t put butts in the seats, but winning consistently does. If you’re willing to spend $150 million, the marketing department will argue that Bryce Harper might be worth $300 million because that will blow up your new broadcasting rights deal in a way that few others could (Sale clearly not one of them, despite his greatness.) But what happens to the morale of fanbase if we swing and miss on all the big names? Fans are much more likely to get enthusiastic about a middle of the order compared to a #2 starter and closer. Machado, Arenado, Ohtani...they move the meter too, but who else fits in that category? Seems the odds are much higher that Moncada, Jimenez, Kopech, Robert or Micker Adolfo becomes that superstar, rather than bidding for one at absolute peak of the market.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:57 PM) Examples of actual headlines in the link Imagine you’re suddenly an armed female teacher and you’re being sexually harassed at school...or that only male teachers/admins/coaches can have guns at school?

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:34 PM) Here’s his wRC+ by year: 2013: 147 2014: 130 2015: 154 2016: 155 2017: 149 He’s consistently been one of the best hitters in baseball and has shown no decline offensively through his age 31 season. Yes, I’m sure the defense is slowing down a bit, but he’s a good enough athlete to hopefully remain solid at 3B for some time. And if he had to move to 1B or DH, he will likely hit enough to be a valuable player. Again, all depends on the price & years. So would you give him $130-140 million for four years? What if you couldn’t sign him without going to five?

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:24 PM) Nothing gets in Caulfield’s way of adding a Royal! Actually, from past history...we should go only with DBacks. Eaton and Quentin were two of the best deals ever. Matt Davidson might turn out to be a find.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:24 PM) Everyone in a school will be doing this most of the day but with actual guns. That @#$&* stole my g/f! I f——ing want to kill that mf@#$&ing teacher. I was picked last for Dodge Ball! I’m not going to take it anymore... I’m being bullied online...instead of suicide, I can now disarm a teacher and take out my enemy now.

QUOTE (Brian @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:12 PM) Then every student should have a gun! That will be the exact talking point from the NRA the first time anyone in a school snaps and kills a single student in America...self-defense/Second Amendment. Imagine it’s a white teacher killing a minority student...or a black teacher killing a white student!!! Civil war. On the plus side, teachers might get their $250 tax credit for buying supplies on their own reinstated, lol. And then we’ll have a boatload of discrimination lawsuits against school districts...so and so NRA admin won’t hire me because I refuse to carry a gun or am a female/young mother and don’t want to die in my own classroom. Or those darn liberal admins won’t hire me because I want to bring a gun into the school, etc.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:09 PM) What happens when an overly-stressed teacher, barely making ends meet goes on a rampage with their government-issued gun? Good point. Trump can list pilots, but that’s not analogous. What about two teachers who are having a dispute...for example? There are lots of conflicts in that environment. Not just with students, but also teachers versus administrators in many schools. Or someone’s having an affair with a co-worker, and someone else decides they’re an easier target now in the parking lot before school. NOBODY would argue that postal service employees, for example, should all be armed. I can tell you from personal experience my blood pressure went from normal to 130 in my early 30’s after just one year in a rough inner city school environment. More pressure/stress...more bad outcomes are bound to occur when someone snaps. The students have drawn criticism from some conservatives who have accused them of being too young to understand the nuances of the gun-control debate or have suggested that they may have been coached — even going as far as to label the well-spoken survivors of the massacre “crisis actors.” “Should the media be promoting opinions by teenagers who are in an emotional state and facing extreme peer pressure in some cases?” former Fox News host Bill O’Reilly tweeted. “Their sorrow can very easily be hijacked by left-wing groups who have an agenda,” former GOP Rep. Jack Kingston said on CNN’s “New Day” on Wednesday. “Do we really think 17-year-olds on their own are going to plan a nationwide rally?” “What, pray tell, did these students do to earn their claim to expertise?” Ben Shapiro wrote in the National Review. “They were present during a mass shooting, and they have the right point of view, according to the Left.” https://www.yahoo.com/news/parkland-student...-203145718.html

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 04:57 PM) I have not heard anyone list turf as an injury factor since the newer astroplay replaced all of the old astroturf. Probably more for CFers and middle infielders...but that position still has more wear and tear than 1B or a corner outfield spot. There are probably some internal advanced metrics to analyze that as well. It also creates a lot more heat in the heart of the summertime (weekend games) when the Dome is open.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 04:39 PM) via That’s exactly what concealed carry is... If they put them all in a safe in the coach’s or principal’s offfice, the odds of reacting efficiently enough under a huge amount of stress in less than 1-2 minutes isn’t that ideal. They can certainly run simulations, but you’re still talking about going up against even higher firepower (potential attackers will bring grenades or explosives) than AR-15’s armed only with handguns. Because nobody besides the NRA will be for having 4-5 automatic weapons already on school grounds, unless we want to become China, Russia or Colombia. Plus, the reaction time of former servicemen or police officers in their 40’s or 50’s isn’t nearly as good as at 18-24 years old.

Remember, many now want to give Abreu let’s say another $65 million to cover 2020-2022 his age 33-35 seasons. That’s an even bigger risk to be counting on two declining players like that and paying both $20+ million per season to boot.

QUOTE (Blackout Friday @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 04:06 PM) In what world is Donaldson in a “major decline”? His war numbers have gone down three consecutive years...remember the freak out about Abreu? Some health issues, he’s played quite a few games on turf now, as well as his age and the fact that he’ll be mid 30’s when 2020 hits. So if War is equated to $7 million per, that’s $30-35 million per year for let’s say, four years...because you probably can’t get him for just three, it’s his last big contract. So anyone willing to pay Donaldson $130 million for four years, 2019-2022? Would you rather pay Moustakas $65 million for four years, 2018-2021, with a reasonable option for a fifth year? Would you rather sign 4 Moustakas equivalents, 2 Donaldson’s or 1 Machado? Keeping in mind the risks on Donaldson/Machado/Arenado/Rendon “Adam Dunn-busting” are basically not franchise killers, but HUGE setbacks... The problem isn’t Donaldson’s production in 2015 and 2016. It’s what he has left in the tank...how much his production will decline...how much his defense will decline...by the time 2020 rolls around. Keeping in mind you’re paying him at a minimum of $25 million...if not $30-35 million, for mostly past production.

The Sandy Hook parent had a good point. They’ve developed an internal training program for students/admins to identify and pre-empt potential shooters before it ever reaches that point at a very low cost. Secondly, he mentioned his wife is a schoolteacher and the amount of stress that teachers already deal with doesn’t lend itself well to adding that responsibility of carrying loaded handguns to school. I could see an argument for coaches/PE teachers or admins...but not someone who is responsible already for classroom management for 5-6 stressful hours per day, plus many teachers are substituting in their planning hours due to school staffing issues...adding yet more stress. And basically having to serve as quasi-counselors to a lot of the students as well.

Trump wants 20% of teachers to have concealed carry... Compared to pilots having guns Or 3-4 former Marines/Army/Navy service members posted at every school in the country. Or former law enforcement officers. Costs?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:16 PM) Do you know that if 2.0 is average, there are less than 7 players on average that are at least average on each team. How's that for averages? And if you round down like eminor, there are less than 5 above average players on average for each roster. 1) White Sox haven’t easily been able to come up with “average” 3b since Crede... 2) Only 3-4 of those high impact guys will be avail to 30 teams over the next two years with every team bidding 3) LH 4) Above average defender over his career 5) Still just 29 6) Lots Of playoff experience, plus super familiar with our own division 7) our best prospect for the position in Burger is 50/50 to remain there 8) Donaldson on major decline, expensive and will be in mid 30s by time of contention window 9) Nats much more likely to extend Rendon than Harper

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 09:39 AM) 2.2 fWAR is an average player. He's coming off a year where his wRC+, the best statistic for measuring total offensive production (which is league, park, and era-adjusted) was 107th best in the MLB. Last year, in his age 29 season, he wasn't even a top 100 hitter. Now we're talking about needing him to be in the middle of our order in his age 31-33 seasons. Adam Dunn put up 16.9 career war and everyone was elated when he signed for his age 31-34 seasons at money Moustakas might even not get six years later...as a DH, compared to an above average 3b with a World Series resume. There has to be some middle ground. Heyward might have been the tipping point on overvaluing defense.

QUOTE (Tony @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 08:59 AM) Arming every teacher in America is just as crazy of a proposal as taking away everyones guns. Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that public sector “liberal teachers’ unions” and the NRA go together about as well as Fergie and jazzified versions of the National Anthem...?