caulfield12

QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Feb 20, 2015 -> 09:02 AM) You obviously don't understand probability and statistics because each events probability is independent of the prior events outcome. You probably bet red on roulette when you see there has been 3 black in a row, too, because it is 'due'. It would probably be 50%, lol, although odds say getting four in a row would be 6.25% At any rate, I guess you missed the humor.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Feb 20, 2015 -> 08:38 AM) I think the most I would be willing to go on Samardzija (unless he truly becomes an ace this year) would be around 5/100. I don't think that would get it done. If he leaves in free agency that would still leave us with Sale, Quintana and Rodon as a very solid front 3. Then maybe go and try to sign a mid level guy to a one or two year deal and then by 2016-2017 hopefully 2 of Danish, Montas and Adams will be ready. That's where guys like Latos and Fister would make sense...just like Anibal Sanchez and Fister did for the Tigers to fit in as 4th starters and provide additional depth. They'd be affordable, because of that top 3. The problem right now is the Danks contract also being on the books. Adams' earliest arrival date is probably late 2016/early 2017. As with the Tanaka interest, the White Sox don't see like the type of team to play it in-between, which is what Samardjiza is....being paid as an ace or close to an ace with the numbers being bandied about here, well over $100 million. Danks was the only time they were willing to go long-term and it bit them in the butt, so they're going to have to be 100% convinced Shark is the guy going forward that's worth that type of investment with Noesi/Beck/Johnson/Montas/Danish/Adams all in the pipeline. Personally, I'd rather invest that money into solving the catching situation once and for all.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 20, 2015 -> 07:52 AM) That is crazy. The market will be flooded with pitchers next offseason if no one extends before that. Price, Zimmerman, Cueto, Latos, Fister.... He won't command anywhere near that on the open market. The market next year isn't really THAT amazing. It might change a bit, if Greinke becomes available. Price is likely to stay with the Tigers (at least better than a 50% chance). That leaves Zimmerman and Cueto as the two premium options, which is essentially the same as Scherzer/Lester/Shields...once again, unless Greinke is also on the market and all four of those top guys are free to sign anywhere in the offseason. If you include Samardzija as well, sure, it's better...but there are still 20 teams chasing the same 3-5 pitchers. Latos and Fister will be lucky enough to gather the "table scraps" remaining, ala Shields this year.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/19/politics/ter...rity/index.html Threat from domestic right-wing anti-government groups might be a greater...

Or it simply means the next time arson is claimed/insinuated it has to be the correct call.

Think of it like the NCAA Tournament. ISIS/ISIL wants to establish credibility, they're a bubble or mid-major team. The only way they can do that is by being perceived as "beating" or at least confronting the US directly. The difference is we don't want to give them an opportunity to play. It's the same reason that the University of Illinois has no advantage in scheduling SIU, Illinois State, etc. If you beat them, it's expected by everyone. If they upset you somehow, it's a disaster. And everyone likes to root for the underdog to take out the big bully team, the Dukes in bb or Alabamas in fb. If we "take the ball away" like Lucy with Charlie Brown, refuse to offer them what they want in terms of anti-Islamic sentiment...in other words, we simply will not acknowledge they're a real power or on anything approaching equal footing to the established superpowers that lead the UN/G8, then what is the effect? They obviously need "victories" and they need allies/financial assistance. Here's an article about how China is pivoting towards Afghanistan/Kabul/Pakistan with the U.S. pullout. http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2015-0...nt_19621445.htm

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 19, 2015 -> 04:34 PM) Shoulder surgery for Jurickson Profar, sidelined indefinitely. 18 months ago he was considered one of the top 5 prospects in the game. Hope he makes it back, but you never know. This would definitely seem to push him to 2B when he does come back.

Micah doesn't have the upside of a Ray Durham (overall), but look no further for a player with all the physical tools who had his fair share of defensive struggles. There's the mental side of things to always take into consideration at that level...he was probably Top 5 in the history of the game at 2B in being able to chase down balls in the outfield and down the foul line, but the routine play, that was challenging for him and he'd lose focus, just like Alexei drifts sometimes. With Sanchez, you just have the feeling that, while he won't kill you on a really good offensive team, he's going to start to weigh down the bottom of the line-up and he just doesn't have anything about his game that really stands out. If the Sox still had Eduardo Escobar on their roster, I think they would start him at 2B over Sanchez. Faint praise, indeed...and, with all that said, they seem to be weighing the ability to manufacture runs and wreck havoc on the basepaths more than defense at this point. Of course, it also wouldn't be shocking if somehow Beckham ended up starting again...sigh.

http://news.yahoo.com/the-fight-against-ex...-171017296.html Now that they're listening to Jenks and Fox News, what will conservatives have to complain about with this admin? Seems like they've finally reversed course to take his advice.

I still don't even know if a second year tells you enough. Puig was excellent for the first 3-4 months in 2014 and then fell off a cliff. His power numbers were also off, although he did get a lot of extra base hits. We have three years to go on now with Trout, and he should have been MVP at least twice, if not all three years, arguably. Some would argue Puig is Top 10-15 (future/potential-wise) and some might not have him until the 30's, 40's or 50's in their rankings. Hard to say yet. Cabrera still deserves to be part of the conversation. A healthy Giancarlo Stanton if you're talking best power hitter. Trout, of course. Maybe McCutcheon, although he gets a lot of his value in other areas besides hitting. Cano, for the season he put up playing half his games in SEA. Victor Martinez is unlikely to be there going forward, that's been discussed into the ground. Looking at some of the "younger" names, you have Brantley, Posey, Fr.Freeman, Josh Harrison, Carlos Gomez, Rendon, Starling Marte and Duda. If you would have asked me a year or two ago, I would have said Carlos Santana of the Indians, but he was so bad in the first half it looked his his career was falling apart until he finally recovered. Kipnis, too.

This can go around and around forever. Bill Clinton always says his biggest regret was no boots on the ground in Rwanda. Why, because he felt it was an impossible political sell because of Somalia/Black Hawk Down. Bosnia/Serbia/Croatia, etc. If you want to go back further, you can look at the US/CiA assassinations of Allende, Patrice Lumumba and Che Guevara. How would South America or Africa be different had they been allowed to live? For a more recent example, you should watch OUR BRAND IS CRISIS...about how a US pr firm (Carville/Greenberg, etc.) deliberately tried to re-elect and sustain a terrible dictator in Bolivia and the consequence that came about was Evo Morales as leader and a wave of socialism/populism/anti-Americanism breaking out all across South America. If you prefer seeing how American corporate interests have probably even bigger negative impacts on the development of a country's infrastructure and growth, there's BIG MEN by the same documentary director, about how the US and European oil companies tried to exploit the first major deposit of oil reserves off the coast of Ghana...corruption in that government and its dealings with oil companies...and the spillover effect into Nigeria. Pretty eye-opening stuff. At any rate, to summarize, there's no guarantee that BETTER will be the replacement. There's only the guarantee you're getting rid of one...but often when you attempt to manipulate/control a successor, that's where the US has typically tended to get into trouble foreign-policy wise.

QUOTE (3GamesToLove @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 11:51 AM) I don't like this thread title. Yeah, should have a ? after it. Makes people think when they come to the site a deal has already been struck. My first impression was surprise, but also a feeling that $100+ isn't the type of money the White Sox usually allocate to starting pitchers in their 30's, no matter what the previous wear and tear on their arm/shoulder/elbow has been. Now if Rodon/Danish/Montas completely flop this season (think Matt Davidson's equivalent as pitchers...or Erik Johnson 2014), then I'd be at least more willing to consider it. You'd have to, in Hahn's position.

QUOTE (flavum @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 06:40 AM) I wanted to see that and Boyhood before the Oscars. Haven't gotten around to Birdman, but I watched Boyhood last weekend, and while it's creative film making, I found it really boring. It's certainly not best Picture material, in my opinion....and nobody should be getting a best acting nomination. It won't, just Patricia Arquette...and it's more of a "lifetime" body of work achievement IMO. I agree that it's not the kind of film that you would ever want to revisit again, and it's not what you would call entertaining...but it was a labor of love to come up with that film-making concept of following a main character in "real life" for 12 years. It's kind of like when we get upset with actors getting rewarded for massive physical changes (Charlize Theron as a serial killer or Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking), playing someone with mental challenges (Russell Crowe as John Forbes Nash), etc. If you do something out of the ordinary as a director as well, it deserves praise but not necessarily the best picture. Boyhood might be the "least loved" best picture of any movie from this generation of films with the possible exception of The Artist.

For the same reason we didn't parade Osama bin Laden's body around the streets of NYC. Because it would only create more antagonism and bring in numerous new terror recruits. btw, what specific Muslim terrorists are you arguing that Obama is trying to pacify by not calling them out for their actions? Basically, you want the George W. Bush or Joe Mantegna (Criminal Minds) aggressive and "in your face" style of confrontation...instead of Mandy Patinkin's more cerebral/passive approach. Neither is absolutely, 100% right or wrong...you have to utilize both approaches to be effective. Always being the aggressor in foreign policy will lead to widespread loss of life. OTOH, if your enemies don't fear you and call your bluff because they don't believe you have the guts to do what it takes in order to stop them, that elicits confidence on the side of fear and terrorism. No matter what Obama has said publicly, the extreme increase in drone strikes shows that he really hasn't broken much at all with his predecessor in regards to the war on terrorism...many Democrats fault him for going back on a number of his foreign policy promises and have been greatly disappointed.

On the other hand, there's not a comprehensive statistical measure that's universally accepted, either. That system for looking at relievers' leverage is interesting, and it's better than something like pythagorean wins and losses, but it's just one facet of managing. For example, how much would that one facet alone be weighted at, 15%? 20%? What would the other tenets of managing be with measurables? Line-up construction? Dealing with the media? Effective use of double shifts? PH/platooning decisions? Would would you measure relationships with the coaching staff and front office, etc.? Showing patience and poise, versus being more fiery, like a drill instructor? These are very subjective and changeable aspects as well...they won't hold constant as a manager evolves. Wins per payroll/salary dollar? Well, that will always overrate managers of teams like the Marlins or Padres, and weigh down the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, etc. Even with your bullpen leverage stat, it doesn't necessarily predict who would do the best with the most talented bullpen...who would be able to manage best in the playoffs, etc.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 01:32 PM) None of them will top Miracle (that's Disney, right?) but I still think this one looks promising. Or the Dennis Quaid one where he plays Jim Morris of the Rays.

Remember when this guy was THE story of the NCAA tourney in 2013? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Enfield Now 4-27 in his first 31 PAC-10 games.

They could be passed up. The White Sox are the most improved team in baseball. The Indians aren't going anywhere. The Royals went to the World Series last year. Full article on positives and negatives for the Tigers winning their fifth consecutive division title. http://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tige...sules/23416445/

QUOTE (AlSoxfan @ Feb 16, 2015 -> 07:45 PM) Well you could go with Robin either way...grins but those are all good names an by the way I forgot to say congrats I'd take the over on 82 wins but don't think I'd bet our Sox for the WS win but can't really be counted out. I'm really not sure who in the AL though, could be a few different teams there. The Nats do look pretty solid in the NL. Seems like it's always a wild card team that wins it though. Gonna be a good yr. I think, a lot of teams are able to win it this yr....not many push-overs The Mariners are a popular pick, obviously...there's clearly (at least now) no dominant AL team. The Yankees and Red Sox are both going through transition periods. LA is relying on a repeat from Calhoun, plus Matt Joyce, David Freese, Rutledge, Iannetta, there's too many question marks, IMO. Richards, Weaver, CJ Wilson, Shoemaker, Heaney and Santiago is the rotation. Weaver has been more hittable with diminished velocity, Wilson has been borderline Danks-ish...Shoemaker/Heaney/Santiago are all wildcards, although Shoemaker was a pleasant surprise. Baltimore, KC and the Tigers haven't improved from last season. Theoretically, the Blue Jays could surprise as well...maybe the Rangers.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Feb 16, 2015 -> 02:39 PM) Strangely good timing for Cameron Monaghan that his character in Shameless goes on the deep end of crazy this week and they show that creepy close-up scene of Ian walking through the mental institution, a day before his debut as The Joker on Gotham tonight. That worked out rather perfectly for Cameron and Gotham. His career is starting to take off...he was in The Giver and at least one other big Hollywood movie recently. Shameless and The Walking Dead have been tough watches recently, but that was the best Shameless in months. The show has its best moments away from Frank, who ironically is the most talented actor but sucks all the energy away from the rest of the cast at times. They need to figure out a resolution to the Kevin/family problem soon because he's kind of gotten lost in the shuffle this year.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Feb 16, 2015 -> 07:50 PM) Finally watched Gone Girl last night. I think if you didn't see it right away it was probably sort of ruined for you. Or it was already ruined when you read the book...since the whole movie turns on that plot twist. That's why I am hesitating about learning anything more about The Walking Dead animated series...would rather be surprised. http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2015-02...nt_19603830.htm Speaking of strange documentaries, you have The Wolfpack...about a Lower East Side/Manhattan family (it seems they are half-Peruvian/Hare Krishna and half Eastern European by the names) whose parents lock up all the children in the house and home school them...and their only interactions with the outside world are through re-enacting movies and some tv programs.

QUOTE (LDF @ Feb 16, 2015 -> 06:51 PM) ya.... she is banned and all her movies from china b/c of her making that movie.... she showed her ummmm many wonderful assets, which is, to put it simply as being great. wow. i am now a fan. back to the movie, it is a shame, it had a chance but they screwed it up. oh, i just saw John Wick. it was ok, nothing great, a 1 1/2 - 2 in stars. a brain dead movie, lots of actions and violence. the guy in it played the org Girl with a dragon tatoo. bloomquest. (sp) Nyqvist, Swedish actor....who has become more famous for playing a Mission Impossible (the one in Dubai) villain since then. John Wick is awesome...it's 50X better than Taken 2/3 or The Equalizer. For me, it's comparable to Man On Fire, although Denzel gets the nod because he's a much better actor. Keanu's kind of an anti-actor, whereas he can only not get in the way of a really good movie, but he can't make a so-so or bad movie bearable to watch. As for Tang Wei, she's really become China mainstream popular and the ban on filming in the mainland was lifted awhile ago.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Feb 16, 2015 -> 07:01 PM) Congrats on the baby...............March looking good for you. 82 wins sounds pretty fair. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015-01...nt_19287298.htm Everyone's in a rush not to have a "sheep" baby (Chinese Zodiac) or to waiting until next year because they believe they're too docile and pliant...on the other hand, Bill Gates and Steve Jobs were born in the Year of the Sheep. 82 sounds right, 77 is too low (Baseball Prospectus)...and whatever fangraphs or baseball-reference are projecting.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Feb 16, 2015 -> 04:58 PM) Carson Fullmer's 95 MPH heater, look at the movement on this thing, good god. https://twitter.com/cistulli/status/567449985122574337 Sounds like a high QB from California. Is he related to Brad Fullmer?

QUOTE (AlSoxfan @ Feb 16, 2015 -> 06:03 PM) First baby? who're going to name him after?..lol Agreed that is a good time of the year an it looks like Vegas is picking an Angels/Nats WS I was fighting for Robert because that's my dad's name, Roberto Clemente and Robert F. Kennedy.....but it sounds like "robot" in Chinese English so I have compromised to Ethan Robert if it's a boy. For a girl, Chloe or Zoe(y). Probably Zoe(y), because Chloe is a perfume and also for the Salinger short story. Chloe sounds too much like a celebrity kid's name, although Zoe kind of does, too. "One Dog" or "Lance On Point" are tempting. Or The Deacon. As for the Angels' pick, a lot depends on Richards' health. He was their ace last year before the injury. And I wouldn't be betting on anything more from Hamilton and Pujols than what they provided last year.