caulfield12

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,4704494.story http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/i...amous-than-good It's possible, in the end, that the Detroit Tigers just aren't as good as everyone believed. Famous? Sure. Big-name players? Sure. A playoff team? Not so sure. Take Monday's starter in the first game of a crucial four-game showdown against the American League Central-leading Chicago White Sox. Rick Porcello has been famous in baseball circles since he was the 27th pick in the 2007 draft. Many scouts believed he had the best arm in the draft that year but he fell to Detroit because of a high price tag. After one year at Class A ball, he was in the majors as a 20-year-old rookie in 2009 and had a pretty nice season, going 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA. Jim Leyland had enough confidence in Porcello to start him in the AL Central tiebreaker game against the Twins, and Porcello left in the sixth inning with a 3-2 lead, although the Tigers would eventually lose the game. The Tigers' season still isn't over, this is certain. There's still time for them to get hot and turn it around. But with every passing day, the odds of them turning it around seem less and less likely; three games back feels more like 30 at this point. And if this game is indeed the straw that breaks the camel's back, it's only appropriate that the story of said game -- a 6-1 loss at Chicago -- was a punchless offense, bad defense, and clutch hitting by someone other than Detroit. With their 3-2 victory over the Tigers Tuesday, the Indians have assured that they will at least win the series. It's amazing what, like, pitching well will do for you. Scoring hasn't been the Angels' problem for a while and certainly wasn't when the staff fell victim to some unsustainable poor performances and likewise lost ball games at an alarming rate in August. But in the past two weeks the staff ERA is 1.85 (3.50 FIP) and, presto, they're 11-1. Many in the game still love Porcello's arm, especially his bread-and-butter power sinker, and they've been waiting for a breakthrough season. It hasn't happened. Monday night, he was cruising along through five innings, having allowed only two hits and his sinker had helped generate six groundball outs. Fourteen pitchers later, he was out of the game and the White Sox ended up with a 6-1 victory behind a strong 7.1-inning effort from Jose Quintana. Porcello dropped to 9-12 with a 4.59 ERA. In the sixth, he struck out Kevin Youkilis but Dewayne Wise reached on Omar Infante's error. Paul Konerko singled to left on a 1-2 92-mph sinker. That led to a visit from pitching Tigers pitching coach Jeff Jones. Whatever advice Jones gave him ("Go get 'em, kid!"), it certainly didn't help. Two pitches later, Alex Rios drilled Porcello's two-seam fastball -- his 10th two-seamer in a row in the inning -- over the left-field fence for a three-run homer. Two pitches later -- a changeup and then another two-seamer -- A.J. Pierzynski made it 4-1 with a crushing solo shot to center. Exit, Porcello. It's no coincidence that Porcello struggled the third time through the Chicago lineup. Look at stats entering Monday's start: First time through the order: .281/.314/.377, 3.40 SO/BB ratio Second time through the order: .304/.346/.464, 3.08 SO/BB ratio Third time through the order: .356/.407/.494, 1.60 SO/BB ratio Look, Infante's error set the inning in motion. Maybe Porcello goes 1-2-3 without the miscue. On the other hand, this outing was par for the course for the right-hander. For whatever reason, his sinker becomes less effective as the game goes along. Here's another stat that shows that: Innings 4-6: .239/.283/.307 (220 plate appearances ending with a sinker) Innings 5-7: .410/.453/.581 (129 plate appearances ending with a sinker) Sabermetricians keep track of a stat called BABIP -- batting average allowed on balls in play. I cite it here quite often. The consensus theory is that pitchers have little control -- some argue none -- over what happens once the ball is put in play, that the result is the residue of defense and some combination of good or bad fortune. Among qualified starters, Porcello entered Monday's games with the worst BABIP in the majors at .350. Considering teammate Max Scherzer was second-worst at .336, it's fair to suggest the Detroit defense is somewhat to blame here -- the Tigers are 27th in the majors in percentage of balls in play that are turned into outs. (Although it's interesting to note that Porcello is a fairly extreme groundball pitcher and Scherzer a fairly extreme fly ball pitcher.) Still, the above numbers seem to suggest that Porcello clearly has a large degree of control of what is happening against him. It is worth mentioning that the typical major league pitcher also fares worse as the game progresses, numbers here: First time: .251/.310/.401, 2.83 SO/BB ratio Second time: .263/.322/.420, 2.44 SO/BB ratio Third time: .273/.331/.446, 2.22 SO/BB ratio But Porcello's decline is obviously much more severe than the average starter, which is undoubtedly why Jeff Jones paid Porcello a visit after an error and a single. It's hard to tell exactly what goes on to explain Porcello's decline in the middle innings. Here are two heats map of Porcello's two-seam sinker location: Rick Porcello's sinker doesn't have the same location later in the game.As you can see, those maps aren't exactly the same thing. Opposing hitters fare very well with the location on the second map, as Porcello's sinker apparently flattens out and gets less movement. So now the famous Tigers are 3 games behind the less-famous White Sox. (Jose who?) There are still three games left in the series and 22 games remaining in the season. Maybe the Tigers will finally go on that big run like we saw when they began the season 9-3. If so, it better start on Tuesday. And if so, it's time for somebody besides Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder to do something on offense ... and maybe time for Leyland and Jones to realize before his next start that Porcello is good for about four or five innings.

ANAHEIM, Calif. -- U.S. Cellular Field, the White Sox's home park, is about a 90-mile drive from South Bend, Ind., home of Notre Dame. Neither that proximity nor anything else will prompt Jim Leyland to use Knute Rockne-type oratory before his team opens its four-game series tonight against AL Central-leading Chicago. "There are no rah-rah speeches," the Tigers manager said. "If I've got to go out there and remind these guys that we're in a pennant race and the stakes are big right now, we've got a problem -- then we don't have the team I thought we had. These guys know what's at stake." However, Leyland might want to repeat the exhortation that fabled Cubs announcer Harry Caray often made over the Wrigley Field PA system just after singing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" at the seventh-inning stretch: "Let's get some runs!" Leyland said: "There are several great races going on in baseball right now. There are a lot of people in the same boat we are, fighting to try to get to postseason. But we're going to have to score more than one or two runs to get there. That's just a simple fact." He said that on Sunday morning. On Sunday afternoon, the Tigers lost for the fifth time in six games. In all five losses, they've scored two runs or fewer. Winding down: This series will mark the final four games of the season between the Tigers and White Sox. "They're important, everybody knows that, but it's not the end of the season," White Sox manager Robin Ventura told reporters Sunday. "You still have to play well for the end of the season." freep.com/sports

http://www.freep.com/article/20120910/SPOR...-Central-series

QUOTE (Real @ Sep 10, 2012 -> 11:30 PM) 3rd game against Yankees where Sale K'd 13 and we swept them The game we were down for most of the game until the top of the 8th or 9th and Viciedo hit the game-changing homer was also awesome.

But haven't the White Sox outhomered the Tigers and most of the AL? You'd call the Sox the team of home runs (especially in the last 6 weeks at USCF)...solid/above average defense, and timely/clutch hitting, until we came to DET for the sweep last weekend and have been playing abysmally with RISP. Actually, it started with the Baltimore series. Not sure where we stand exactly now, but probably in the low .280's hitting as a team with RISP, having fallen off from .295 about 2 weeks ago.

Updated playoff %'s Texas NYY 80.4 SOX 80.1 OAK 79.5 TB 60.5 Balt and LAA around 40% 30,287 Will be pretty darned surprised if they don't have 34-35,000 tomorrow night after winning this game...

Tonight has to be up there. The game against the Mariners where they scored 5 or 6 to take a one run lead and then we won it in the bottom of the 9th, that one had the most twists and turns in a 10-20 minute time period. Quintana stepped up and stopped a 7 game losing skid against a team. In terms of the momentum of the season, with DET now 1-9 in their last 10 games (excluding the Sox sweep in DET), that victory, at home, was absolutely HUGE.

Peavy versus Fister tomorrow. Setting up as another huge game, with ALL the pressure now back on the Tigers. Put up, shut up time for Peavy, if there ever was one.

DET would be 1-9 if not for their 3 game sweep of us. They're struggling even worse than we are, and questions abound on Verlander's health.

Sox finish (hopefully) the night 2/16 with RISP, .125 average.

If it's NOT Reed, who will they actually use? It BETTER not be Phil Humber, that's all I am saying. I don't think I could take another 9th like that Mariners game.

More worried about Addison Reed entering with a 5 run lead now, and not a save situation. Beckham getting a measure of redemption late this season and seemingly cementing his hold on 2B for 2013.

GREAT slide there. Now we have a chance to win a game being 1/16 with RISP. Amazing, actually.

Might as well send Ramirez. What was the announced attendance?

UGLY night for Viciedo. However, he did make a huge throw to gun down Peralta at 2B to prevent what could have been an even bigger inning.

Young, Peralta and Garcia due up in top of the 9th. Three righties for Addison. No excuses.

Coke for AJ, then Marte for Viciedo and Ramirez. Doubt they use up Villarreal here. And he's pitched too much recently for the Tiggers.

HUGE HUGE HUGE out. But don't stop now boys! Veal is definitely positioning himself to be a key in that 2013 bullpen. He's been the most consistent guy down there, all things considered.

Hope that 1/15 with RISP doesn't come back to bite us, but you knew we were going to be challenged at the end of this game because of our bullpen. Well, here it is.

Of course 2-1 count, centercut fastball. Well, Fathom's boy Veal will either the hero or the goat right here against Fielder.

They're really going to Omogrosso to get out Cabrera here?

Wind blew that homer foul. Obviously...must be careful with Cabrera.

This is starting to approach the Danks/Game 163/Blackout as a defining moment for Quintana's young career.

1/15 We were leading the majors at .294 not so long ago. We must be down around the low .280's at this point.

1/14 Obligatory shoulder shrug. 0.0715