caulfield12

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 4, 2012 -> 02:38 PM) Outside of resigning Peavy we are not signing another starting pitcher. Or Floyd (although technically that's exercising an option, not a signing). But I wouldn't be so sure about keeping Gavin when they've gotten "very reasonable" production out of Quintana and Santiago on the cheap. Of course, the problem is the left-handedness of that rotation...the main mitigating factor forcing Gavin back into the rotation. And the fact that while they were quite fortunate with Quintana's development, it doesn't automatically mean the same thing would happen were they to stick Axelrod, Rienzo, Castro or Molina out there in the rotation as well for 2013. If they let Peavy AND Floyd both go, they're definitely going to have to sign someone like a Liriano, Guthrie, Haren, etc.

It's reminiscent of Billy Packer/Vitale with the NCAA's or Pat Summerall/Ken Venturi with golf. Eventually, at some point, you need to move on with a younger broadcaster who will attract a different demographic of fans and try something new and fresh. Let's think of Stone as Jim Nantz or Bryant Gumbel here, for argument's sake.

QUOTE (fathom @ Oct 4, 2012 -> 10:15 AM) ADA was a diamond in the rough Carlos Quentin, AJ, Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome (considering he was coming off a major injury), Alexei Ramirez certainly qualifies...Viciedo, to a lesser extent. Even Wise, Flowers and Johnson the final 2 months this year. It's just that we didn't get what we needed out of Konerko, Dunn, Liriano, Peavy...the list goes on and on for the final 4-6 week disappearing act. Alexei and Dayan both struggled quite a bit down the stretch. AJ. Rios was one of our few consistent threats. YOUK against the Tigers or on the road was a disaster. Everyone knows the Beckham story, second verse, same as the first.

That's the furthest Gimenez has ever hit a ball. He makes Corky Miller look like Ichiro. Great defender, though.

Another ex-Royal strikes again, lol. Bailey for Reddick one of the worst offseason moves in recent years.

Cincy over STL is putting the Dodgers back in play...but they need 2 wins and 2 Cardinals losses. Would be a crazy ending for the Cardinals after last season's charge, but the Dodgers haven't shown themselves capable of sustaining anything since the first 2 months of the year.

QUOTE (flavum @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 07:54 PM) They should just call off the vote, and let Showalter and Melvin split it. How can you pick one over the other? It was like that BS in 2005 when Shapiro won Executive of the Year over KW. How can you pick the 2nd place team there that didn't even make the playoffs and collapsed the final week?

Same thing with AL West, which would be even more amazing. Who do you go with, Showalter or Melvin? Both were totally improbable playoff teams. Which team had the highest LV odds at the beginning of the year?

QUOTE (fathom @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 07:40 PM) To save him for a save situation tonight? I can't wait to hear this whole offseason has Viciedo's overall numbers are skewed by the final week of games where the stats became meaningless except for the back of the baseball card. 24 and 77, that's not too far off most projections, problems against RHP notwithstanding. Maybe some were calling for 30 and 90 RBI's, but that was a bit too optimistic. LOL at the Royals finally taking the lead over DET after losing 5 in a row to them.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 07:36 PM) With anything somewhat resembling offensive support and Peavy would have 16+ wins this year. 3 runs in 8 innings is a QS last I checked. An ERA under 3.40 on the season is pretty damn good in the AL. The guy hasn't pitched a full season in who knows how many years and here he is in October throwing another QS. But when we've needed him not to give up the lead, or give up 1-2 runs instead of 3, he just hasn't gotten it done. Consistently in the 2nd half, and always against the Tigers. Golf clap, to quote Marty, but don't let the door hit you on the way out. Down the stretch, when we need him to be the ace and take some of the pressure of Chris Sale, he hasn't delivered.

QUOTE (fathom @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 07:37 PM) Huh? Not a closing situation Why do we care at all what Myers does here? Unless they just want to rest Reed and get him to the offseason.

Alexei way too lackadaisical on that one. Had to be more aggressive there and charge it.

51 saves for Johnson. So Reed's out of the picture as closer in 2013? His confidence couldn't be any lower going into the offseason.

Saw the score and thought it was Reed that blew, only to find out it was Jake-meister. Figures. Right now, 2nd's locked up and 84 wins is going to put us in better draft position probably... Didn't realize Johnson had 50 saves already. He and Rodney are having quite the seasons in that AL East. With how bad the AL Central has been this season, you wonder if the Tigers can just turn it on when they face some tougher competition. Verlander will be fine, but you don't know about Scherzer's health.

I really believe the Sox are content with 25,000 and slightly more profit rather than 28-30,000 per game and posting any bottom-line numbers due to decreased prices for parking/tickets/concessions that are less than what they're currently getting at 25K per game. The problem with losing out on those 5,000 fans per game is that you're not developing the fanbase for the future...you're maximizing (or squeezing) the revenue in current terms, but probably "penny wise/pound foolish" long term IMO.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 07:18 PM) Was the HBP intentional? Probably, he should have been warned after the first one. Ventura and Harrelson and Cooper probably don't have the energy to argue anymore about umpiring in 2012.

QUOTE (fathom @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 07:14 PM) It's not like they hit the ball well tonight. Indians also aren't trying at all this series since they know they can't play spoiler. Just wait until Reed comes in, lol. The only game worth watching now is NY/BOS or Balt/TB. Rooting hard for the Yankees to lose 2 in a row, but unlikely with Dice-K vs. Kuroda tmrw.

Saw the replay, 94 MPH fastball out over the heart of the plate. That was a good 430 or 440, maybe 450. A blast, in this September weather.

And that's why you can't trade Viciedo for anything less than a premium return, which you won't get for all the reasons a certain poster (and many others with his splits against righties vs. lefties) has outlined 516 times. You have to stick with him for next year, and play him everyday. Otherwise, he's not worth anything to the Sox, really.

QUOTE (Cali @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 05:24 PM) s*** this is true nationally too. Can you think of one team that gets less national attention than the Sox? Even the Pirates and Orioles get more attention for their past successes and Hall of Fame players. Maybe the Blue Jays? Royals? The list is small. Royals, Indians and Twins (maybe Mauer makes them equal)...Padres, A's, Pirates, Orioles, Mariners, Blue Jays, Rays, Lastros, Pirates, probably the Brewers (although Braun also cancels that out a bit), Reds, DBacks, etc. We're realistically probably somewhere between 14th and 18th. Our ratings are up for tv broadcasts, we have the international popularity of our hats and merchandise, Obama's fandom (lol), the Chicago media market, our franchise value somewhere in the 7-8-9-10 range out of all MLB teams... No more Ozzie Guillen, lol, plain vanilla Ventura. Does anyone really miss that circus or think it did anything but help attendance this year? Last year was just terrible in terms of watching the team on a daily basis. Until September, this was a much more enjoyable/pleasurable experience.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 06:04 PM) You can't magically create players in those positions. Who would you sign? Youkilis is the only thing resembling a decent 3B available in FA. AJ is the best FA C. You're joking if you think we should spend money on a UTIL or RP instead of a frontline starter. If anything, we should be cutting payroll in the form of Thornton, not adding. Crain's not tradeable until he proves he can stay 100% healthy for at least a 3-4 month stretch.

QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 04:32 PM) The man nearly has 100 RBIs and is 3rd in HR, most any team would like to have him....We knew all along that he was gonna K a lot and wasn't gonna have a high BA yet most here loved the signing when it happened. How do you plan on replacing close to 100 RBIs?? There are only 15 guys in the MLB with more. I'm guessing the argument will be the Moneyball approach....except with better platoon candidates than Kotsay and Jones. For example, trading Dunn, getting a new CFer, moving DeAzo to LF and a DH platoon of Dayan and ????. The problem is that I'm not sure that Viciedo will continue to 1) develop and 2) rake against LHP if he's only getting playing time once every 3-4 games. So let's just argue for our current roster's sake it would be Wise or Dan Johnson paired with Dayan. Then Dunn's money would be reinvested in 3B, C, pitching, CF, etc. You'd also improve the outfield defense by quite a bit, essentially having 3 CFer's out there.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 04:52 PM) We do need a RHP that can throw harder than 91-92. Aren't you surprised Jake was able to do as we'll as he did with his weak stuff? Dude learned how to pitch a little bit, but good hitters could smack him around. DET certainly had his number all season long.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 04:20 PM) In my opinion, none of Konerko, Dunn, Rios, or Ramirez are going to be solid contributors to the next Sox postseason team. Therefore let someone else pay the remainder of their contracts. With some of the savings sign an innings-eater to a short-term small money deal (Blanton, Guthrie) to protect Sale, Danks, and Quintana while at the same time setting yourself up payroll wise for 2014+ I'm not sure how good Quintana will be, but he's worth developing. It wouldn't surprise me eventually if he's a #3 starter, I just do not think he will reach that in 2013. This is typical "Royals Thinking" for the past 20 years. It's very hard to "band aid" a bridge to your contention window. People argued at mid-season how terrible Guthrie was...now he will be overpaid based on an outlier of a 2 month sample (most of his wins are against the Sox and ALCD), so you're going to be buying extremely high with lots of downside risk. If you want to take a moderate risk, then you re-sign Liriano and try to fix him. Better than giving that money to a Joe Blanton or Jeremy Guthrie type that will end up giving you a 76-84 win team again, or even worse, go Phil Humber 2012 on you. For a long time, you've wanted to trade Viciedo and Ramirez. That much was/is clear. The problem is that Viciedo's value is down, and one of our other four "youngish" position players in DeAza is no longer an ideal CFer. The other two guys we're relying on are Beckham and Flowers, and who knows what they'll give us in 2013.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 12:04 PM) These discussions are popping up in other threads, so, let's start a discussion here. What would be your plan, if you were the GM of the Sox? I am going to make an ASSUMPTION here, that payroll will remain similar to last year (which started at about $98M, and ended around $104M). OBLIGATED FOR 2013 BY CONTRACT (TOTAL: $72.25M): Alex Rios: $12.5M Adam Dunn: $15M Paul Konerko: $13.5M Jesse Crain: $4.5M Matt Thornton; $5.5M Alexei Ramirez: $7M John Danks: $14.25M CONTRACT OPTIONS AND BUY-OUTS (TOTAL: $8M to $54.5M): Jake Peavy: $22M TO or $4M BO Kevin Youkilis: $13M TO or $1M BO (Boston sent money as salary offset, but buy-out is naked, I believe) Gavin Floyd: $9.5M TO, no BO Randy Myers: $10M TO or $3M BO (also a naked option I believe) FREE AGENTS (NO OBLIGATION AGAINST): Orlando Hudson AJ Pierzynski Francisco Liriano Jose Lopez Brian Bruney Dewayne Wise Dan Johnson Ray Olmedo Deunte Heath ARB ELIGIBLE: Phil Humber Gordon Beckham Alejandro De Aza PRE-ARB: Chris Sale Brent Morel Tyler Flowers Nate Jones Addison Reed Hector Santiago Dylan Axlerod Jordan Danks Hector Gimenez Jhan Marinez Brian Omogrosso Jose Quintana Leyson Septimo Donnie Veal -- So, you've got $72.25M under contract, and at least $8M more in obligations, taking you to $80.25M minimum. Let's assume that $100M is the ceiling. Here is what I'd do... OPTIONS AND BUY-OUTS: Buy out Youkilis, Myers and Peavy, for $8M (so that puts the team at $80.25M at this point). FREE AGENTS TO GO: Everyone in the above FA list, except AJP (to be addressed below) DFA/RELEASE: Phil Humber, Leyson Septimo OPTION TO MINORS: Brent Morel, Hector Gimenez, Leyson Septimo PRE-ARB: Offer contracts to Sale, Flowers, Jones, Reed, Quintana, Santiago, Veal, Omogrosso, Marinez, JorDanks and Axelrod . All around half a million each, so that's $5M, taking the team to $85.25M ARBITRATION: Keep De Aza and Beckham around. This is purely a guess, but I'm thinking Beckham will cost $2M, and De Aza $3M, for a total of $5M, putting the team at $89.75M. Might want to consider giving De Aza a multi-year deal to buy out Arb and a year or two of FA. TRADE AWAY: Trade Matt Thornton. Probably will only get a mid-level prospect for him, but that's fine, as salary relief is the key factor here. That saves you $5.5M, so you go back down to $84.25M. SIGN: AJP first, and I'm again guessing here, but I think you can get him (given his performance, but also his age at C, and his history making the FA market narrower) for a 2+1 year deal, at about $7M per. So that takes you to $91.25M. I'd try to sign Wise to a cheap short deal for the OF, I think having that vet there has been a good thing. Can probably be had for $1M or less, call it $1M for now. That's $92.25M The other two slots you now face dealing with are 3B (or 2B if beckham can be moved over), and possibly one SP (you already have Danks, Sale, Quintana and Santiago penciled in). With $10M to work with, unless you want to trade someone like Rios or a top flight prospect, you can really only get one or the other that is any good for that money. So you are either starting someone like Leesman/Axelrod/Shirek/Castro, or you are bringing up Carlos Sanchez. I would rather shore up pitching, and go with the latter. So, use the $10M or so to do one of the following: first try to sign Peavy to a $9M-$12M a year deal (which I think is ppossible, with his injury history), or second try to find the best FA out there at that level of money, or third take Floyd's option. All costing the same, all getting you to around $100M. One hole to fill is the bench IF guy, not sure who that might be, but would be cheap. -- That gives you a ~$100M roster as follows: LINEUP: De Aza, 8 Sanchez, 5 Rios, 9 Dunn, 0 PK14, 3 AJP, 2 Viciedo, 7 Ramirez, 6 Beckham, 4 BENCH: JorDanks, OF Wise, OF Flowers, C ????, 3B-SS-2B ROTATION: Sale Danks Peavy/Floyd/Other Quintana Santiago BULLPEN: Reed CL/SU Jones CL/SU Crain SU Omogrosso SU Veal SPEC Marinez SPEC Axelrod LR -- OTHER POSSIBILITIES: If you trade Rios, you can probably get something good back, but you also now have to start someone like Jordan Danks in the OF until Mitchell or Thompson or somoene else are ready, which is not right away (IMO). You can maybe trade Floyd and his option year, but then you still have a pitching hole to fill. You may also want to flip Sanchez and Beckham on the infield. THE ONLY WAY I'd TRADE RIOS, is if it can result in a significant help at 3B, directly or indirectly. IF THERE IS MORE MONEY AVAILABLE: Then do something about 3B with it. That is the weak spot, with a 20 year old rookie playing there, who I'd rather see developing at AAA. This is a very similar team to this year, except the youngsters have had time to stretch out and develop. Sanchez and a couple rotation slots are the biggest changes. Agree with almost everything here, with one big exception, Sanchez. And the idea of moving Beckham to stick Sanchez in the line-up. The AFL will provide some further clues, but my guess is we're going to find out he's further away that we're imagining. We'll just have to wait and see how the walks and OBP hold up against stiff competition. And he's got to provide absolutely premium defense and 20+ steals if he's going to be a single and doubles hitter and not hitting over .300. Peavy and AJP are large parts of the problem over the last 3-4 seasons, Jake in particular, against the Tigers. There's just zero reason for one to believe that will change. Maybe the "mindset" of this roster and organization CAN'T truly change with Konerko and AJP still around...until every single veteran connected to 2005 is gone. But I'm in agreement with many that $13 million for YOUK is crazy, because it's not building anything lasting for the future...it's just a stop-gap solution, and this year proved that we were more than just 3-4 players (Myers, Liriano, Youk) away from having a legit playoff team.