caulfield12

Kind of like the 2nd half Albert Belle had with us....whatever year that was, 1998 I think.

Well, there have been subtle signs. The Paddy addition, and the loosening of the purse strings in Venezuela at least. The Santos for Molina deal, although it's a bit counterintuitive until ones does a deeper investigation. Picking up those two Jays prospects they invested $700,000 in for the cost savings on Frasor. The Quentin/Castro deal, as well. Mustain, even. I don't think there's a more than 3-5% chance they get Cespedes. Soler, because a lot of the teams spending money are in playoff contention (and looking for an immediate payoff in 2012), could fall to those 2nd and 3rd tier teams that are looking more long-term but would definitely hesitate to spend that kind of money on Soler. The Reds, for example, threw a ton of money at Aroldis Chapman. Looking at it today, would they consider that $30 million well spent?

http://www.chicagonow.com/white-sox-observ...now-chris-sale/ Feel good Chris Sale analysis with lots of numbers to back it up. As noted, the confidence is going to the change more often (7% versus 17.5-22.5%) and the addition of a cutter (Don Cooper) could make him an elite pitcher.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 08:34 PM) What the hell does this have to do with the Sox and Cespedes? The Tigers remain very interested in both Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler. The Prince Fielder signing cost them their first-round draft pick, and President Dave Dombrowski is very concerned about the level of talent in his farm system. phil rogers The numbers being bandied about are a once-in-lifetime anomaly. Suddenly, some of these kids are worth 5-10-15X what they were worth just mere months ago. The White Sox are always going to take their odds with 4-6 Dayan Viciedo's than one Cespedes. Putting all their eggs in just a few baskets has crippled the major league payroll, they're not about to be hamstrung by another bad deal unless the scouts have reached a consensus on Yoenis...especially the CF versus corner outfielder issue. To say that Viciedo wasn't highly-sought after because of the $10 million versus $40-60 million numbers for Cespedes is a bit disingenuous.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 09:08 PM) Danks and Peavy will suck up some of 80 of those innings. The rest will come from a combination of Stewart and Molina. And quite possibly Castro. Few in baseball would be surprised if he ends up having a better big league career than Stewart.

Nobody would have dreamed of Soler getting $15-25 million and Conception anywhere in the vicinity of $7 million even six months ago. For all we know, the kid from the Padres or Hector Santiago might end up having a better major league career than someone the Cubs just spent more than an entire White Sox FA draft on.

But the difference is Sale has a real chance to be special, an All-Star pitcher, and make a huge impact like Floyd and Danks did in 2008. LF, 3B, CF (Rios), 2B (Beckham) you'd bet at Vegas the numbers would be better there than they were last year. AJ should be more or less the same he's been his whole career, and Flowers' numbers over 2-3 months could boost that position in the event of a trade. Konerko, obviously downside risk. Ramirez, likely to stay in that 725-740 OPS range, which is fine with his defensive abilities. We just don't know what we're going to get out of Viciedo and DeAza over a full season....or if either can stay healthy. And there has to be some positive 2-3 win uptick just getting rid of the dysfunctional Ozzie. Fathom found 8-10 games that Ozzie adversely and clearly effected with managerial decisions...clearly Robin will also have some growing pains, but this team with Minnesota down and KC/Cleveland both searching for another gear to be playoff worthy still has a slight opening. Yeah, 75 wins is more likely than 90, but anything inbetween is pretty realistic. Not buying all the doomsday scenarios of 100+ losses.

I'm betting we get more of the 92-96 MPH Peavy fastball than we've seen since we acquired him. He had flashes of it last year, so the mid 90's haven't disappeared, the stamina/endurance/arm strength just weren't there to sustain it at those levels.

Viciedo was the biggest (Latin American) international signing on record at that time, aside from the Japanese pitchers. Guys like Brown and Passan were writing articles every other day about him in the heat of bidding war. A ton of teams were in on him...now if you said Alexei Ramirez was "under the radar," full agreement on that one. The question is whether the risk of his failure (going forward) is worth it, vis a vis the payout and the money already on the books for Danks, Dunn and Rios. If he's not a legitimate enough CFer (more in the Vernon Wells milieu) and belongs at a corner, he's probably not worth that premium to the Sox. He definitely doesn't profile as a leadoff hitter, either. I'd rather have a Devon White with 775-825 OPS at CF and possessing leadoff capabilities than an athletic corner OF who puts up 875 or even 900.

But then with that argument, Dunn shouldn't be at the bottom due to one bad season after almost a decade of incredibly consistent results. I would bet on Dunn being comeback player of the year 100 times over Morneau. Not sure what they're going to get out of Mauer/Morneau/Span.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 12:36 PM) The one thing this shows is that the Sox don't value right-handed (maybe all?) relievers presently and they are probably right to do so. If he can get his velocity up to 95, he may have a chance to get guys out for an inning in the big leagues after a year or so in the minors. It's just adding depth and potential talent. Our RH relief/bullpen depth is probably the least of our issues...unless Reed flops and Crain is also traded. We've got at least 5-7 potentially solid arms down there and another group right behind them in the lower minors. If you include Stewart, Axelrod and Castro, it's really not so bad at all.

Which means Avila really deserves to be ranked ahead of Mauer, and Morneau realistically should be last if Dunn is last. For that matter, Denard Span should be last too.

QUOTE (Andrew @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 03:14 AM) 1.)- Totally Agree here. 2.)- Ok...good. 3.) - A qualification here - you do this for 1/2 season. If they're good (or one is decent,other not, maybe both average etc.) do a deal and move them BOTH if you can. NEITHER is a fit for this team so get rid of them (or either of them) when the perceived value presents itself. I mean...like the MINUTE either/both looks any good. F***ing garbage, both of them. 4.) I don't know what you mean here. "Extended looks?" They have #s or not. Every single one of these guys you mention are non-starters/bench. Who gives a s***? 5.)- I have absolutely NO IDEA what you mean here. I sort of 1/2 quipped about a post somewhere else were it was projected Dunn will be the #2 producer on this team and I remarked he'd have to surpass Alexei.... It was obviously kind of silly but not really. Alexei is easily the most valuable player on this team. Let me know if you want to argue that. 6.) - No - Let Chris run. All the way. As FAR as he can go. Nobody is going to fall for that McCarthy s*** again. 7.) - Right, well.... we'll see, I guess. It's because Ramirez is the single most valuable trade chip we have....bringing back the biggest potential return. Marty34 has been advocating his trade for months now. I'm in between. I do see the point that he will be entering his early to mid 30's as the team theoreticallly starts to compete again in the next 2-3 years, but his salary will also jump up quite a bit 2-3 years from now as well. Because he's such a bargain with both of his contracts (the original one and the one they're now operating under)...he has huge value to about 8-10 teams in baseball, if not more. He does seem to have the type of body that will hold up better than say an Ordonez or Fielder over time, but we can't be 100% sure about his exact age and he does look older than the official age. Then again, so did Contreras and so does Viciedo. As far the middle infield...if Beckham flops again and/or Ramirez is traded, you're going to have to replace 2 middle infielders. That's why I said there's a good chance that a couple of those guys will get extended looks. In an ideal world, Beckham hits like at UGA and his first season in the bigs or 2nd half 2010 and the conversation is moot. Certainly, going forward is exponentially more difficult without Gordon playing at close to All-Star level. But we have insurance just in case he flops.

They would be able to skip Sale (if they so choose) on April 30th, May 10th and May 30th. Not sure they need to rest him twice in the span of 10-11 days, but one of those might be a good opening earlier in the season to save him for potential important August/September innings later.

I've been know to write essays before, but no need. 1) See if Beckham, Morel, Viciedo and DeAza are everyday players....they have to be for us to succeed going forward, at least 3/4. 2) Continue exploring trade options for the likes of Floyd, Konerko, Thornton, AJ, Crain and Ohman. If the team totally tanks, you have to give Flowers 3-4 months to see what he can do as the everyday catcher. If he can't do it, you need to replace him from outside the organization via trade or the draft. 3) Play Peavy/Dunn/Rios as much as possible and see what options are out there for salary dumps, particularly with Rios and Peavy. Dunn, if he rebounds, there's a higher likelihood we keep him. 4) Give extended looks to Lillibridge, Escobar, Ozzie Martinez and Tyler Kuhn. Determine if Brent is a Joe McEwing/Jose Oquendo "jack of all trades" type, if you want to move him back and forth from the OF to IF or if he should stick at one position, possibly replacing Beckham or DeAza (you can't bench Rios or Dunn in a year like this, Greg). McPherson and Dan Johnson could figure in as well, but they're basically retreads and roster filler until we can replace them with better talent from within. 5) Decide once and for all if Alexei Ramirez is a franchise cornerstone or valuable trade chip. 6) Shut down Chris Sale when it becomes necessary and audition Molina, Castro, Santiago, Petricka, Axelrod, Rienzo, etc. Anyone who emerges from our High A through AA teams at that position. 7) We have 10-15 NRI's and minor league bullpen prospects in AA/AAA that all need to be looked at carefully. I won't even bother to take the time to name all of them. Pitch well in 2012 and you'll get your shot with the big league club, just like Ehren Wasserman did in 2007.

It has worked before with Jenks and Santos, although they had top prospect status earlier in their careers, so you clearly don't expect Mustain to make it. We went through something similar with Jason Dellaero (that didn't take) and we also had Brooks Kieschnick, who went on to surprise with the Brewers, two more converted players. Of course, they were converting from position players to pitchers, so they at least had baseball backgrounds. It's a 5% shot at best, if he can get a fastball into the mid-90's (with some life and movement) and then at least an average breaking ball. But this signing isn't any better or worse than say the Royals trying to turn Brian Anderson into a pitcher or the Pirates signing Indian cricket and jal alai players. Low risk, decent reward. Wonder if this came through Paddy or Hahn?

Basically, KW has a free pass for at least this year. That could all change if Ventura's completely in over his head and the team starts off 10+ games under .500 in the early months. Then the storyline becomes the fate of Konerko, AJ, Floyd, Crain/Thornton and playing as many younger players as possible to see what we have for 2013, especially at the catching position with Flowers and/or a possible acquisition there. Anything would be better than last year. Maybe the media attention won't be as high with Ozzie's theatrics gone, but in the worst case scenario, we get to see another 25-30% roster turnover and long looks at Molina, Castro, Axelrod and Petricka, along with 3-5 new bullpen arms auditioning. It then starts to look like 2007 (minus the "breakout" year of Josh Fields, unless you count Viciedo as a rookie....and the blahness of Andy Gonzalez/Jerry Owens/Ehren Wasserman), and the clock's REALLY ticking on KW, giving him one more year of cover, probably.

Then you throw in Alexei Ramirez, Viciedo and Gio Gonzalez, it's not quite so abysmal. The anger is that Hudson and Gonzalez are putting up those numbers with other clubs, obviously. And, it's about the current state of the system being bereft of many impact players. That can all change in one minor league season, and things will probably look quite a bit rosier in 12 months than they do now.

Morel should be better than last year, both offensive and defensively. Beckham can't get any worse offensively. Same with Rios and Dunn. Ramirez is likely to be at or better than what he did offensively in 2011. AJ should put up similar pedestrian numbers at catcher. The only players you don't expect to put up the same numbers are Konerko and DeAza. Viciedo has the potential to have a breakout year offensively, and SHOULD be healthier than Carlos, although he's had some injury problems as well over his 3 years with the Sox. Unless Floyd is traded, there are no obvious holes in the rotation. Bullpens are a crapshoot, but it's not like the cupboard is barren there. If Reed comes through, we'll be fine. One shouldn't be expecting 90 wins, but neither would I expect 90-100 losses, either. If nothing else, having a new manager and clubhouse environment with Ozzie Guillen gone should be good for 3-5 extra wins just on the face of it because of how dysfunctional things were last year. And Chris Sale could have a breakout/dominant 4 months of pitching, too. Nor should we discount one of our young guys like Molina or Castro having a huge impact in the 2nd half. Our system is due to produce another Hudson type situation where a starting pitcher rockets through our system.

And Martinez might not even be 100% to start 2013...they're playing with fire having three DH's on the roster, and then adding Cespedes, who could just as easily be another Fukudome. Cespedes is clearly not a true CFer, either. They already have Boesch and D. Young, as well as Austin Jackson. Not even sure how he fits, probably more for 2013 than 2012. The Twins almost never make mistakes and they really blew it with Nishioka. International free agents are so hard to assess. And just wait until Greg's Marlins have problems with Hanley, Zambrano and Morrison's tweets. Reyes ends up healthy for approximately 75 games and Bell pitches like Doug Jones and Josh Johnson isn't quite back to 100%.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Feb 10, 2012 -> 03:35 AM) Oh for Christ. f***ing. Sakes. No, it's a f***ing stupid hindsight post. Almost everyone in Soxdom LOVED the Dunn signing aside from your father, Whitesoxrandy, and my brother (who was for the E-Jax trade because "Prospects never do anything!"). If by "a lot" you mean ".5% of all Sox fans" then sure, maybe that number comes out to more than 10. That might be considered a lot to someone from Kansas. But stop lauding every damn post that agrees with you as "post of the year." I get that they're more rare then a blue moon or J4L being sober, but just because they spew the same ideology as you does not make them good posts. I f***ing teared up and was sad as hell when Mark when to go join the Oz Show. He was my idol when I would play baseball. I didn't pitch, but I knew he made it because of hardwork so he was my inspiration. Each game I wore a Mark Buehrle #56 shirt underneath my jersey and it's so tattered now that I probably couldn't wear it even if he was still here. And if 3 bad moves are enough to can Kenny, how many would it f***ing take to can Ozzie? Is he also like a Tootsie Pop where the world may never know? Was it playing Rios? Pinch hitting Dunn against lefties? Leaving in Humber or Peavy? Frasor? Benching Morel for performing? Dicking around players in the lineup? Falling in love with mediocre s*** like Randy Williams, DeWayne Wise, and Jerry Owens? Explain those to me Greg. He made the f***ing lineups and no one man is more responsible for this team not making the playoffs in recent years or stunting the growth of players like Morel. Kenny, Dunn, Rios, Peavy, JR, Coop, none of them did as much damage as this one greedy, selfish asshole who had to make them the "Chicago Ozzies" and made bad moves because he was either being spiteful or he was just a terrible f***ing manager. Don't forget the wisdom of the Kotsay/Jones over Thome bull-headed DH move that 50% cost us the ALCD crown in 2010.

Part of me is rooting for the Tigers, just because they almost doomed themselves with bad/bloated contracts and the same might easily happen with Cespedes, Martinez, Fielder, Verlander and Cabrera hogging so much payroll space.

Have to be using the threat of a walk back to the DR as negotiating leverage. I'm not exactly how sure that visa process works...but it's not 100% sure that he'll just be able to re-enter the US again without any complications the 2nd time. In other words, make a good deal now, he's yours. Wait...and maybe he won't be able to start the year in your minor league system and go through big league camp. Of course, that works two ways. Some teams will just wait them out and the pricetag might come down to the $30-40 million range the longer it drags out, especially if he's back in the Dominican and not holding meetings with other teams. Then again, any American front office executive is free to fly down there and meet with him and probably Katz or Katz's in country representative (Spanish interpreter/translator).

And yet our system was rated #1 in 2000 or so and exactly how many of those players had an appreciable impact on the 2005 championship? Buehrle and Garland were really the only ones who "stuck," and Mark was mostly on the periphery of the Top 10-15 during his minor league career.

I think in context, the only blame goes for investing so much in a one-dimensional player. Then again, with the power numbers down, having a real/genuine power threat (LH to boot) in the middle of the line-up seemed critical to our success...how much you want to blame Ozzie and KW for throwing Thome under the bus, that's best left to another thread or discussion. http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/07/is-t...an-league-31965 The thing is, the average American League team spent only $6.8 million on the DH position and we're spending almost twice that...which is forcing us to cut from other areas (also due to Peavy/Rios underperforming). Over the same five-year period, the 14 American League teams employed something like a full-time DH in 57 out of 70 possible seasons. (“Full time” is defined here as 300 or more plate appearances with at least half the player's games at DH.) The average salary of those players? $6.8 million. And that doesn't include the cost of DHs who break down due to age or injury. Travis Hafner made more than $8 million in 2008, Ken Griffey $2.3 million in 2010, and neither made it to 300 plate appearances. Frank Thomas had a $12.5 million salary when he was with the Blue Jays in 2008, Pat Burrell was making $9 million from the Rays in 2010, Shea Hillenbrand $6 million from the Angels in 2007. All three were cut early in the year and were signed for a song by other teams. The financial impact of the Designated Hitter rule also widens the gap between big- and small-market teams. Just compare the haves and have-nots: Over the same five seasons, the average AL team that finished .500 or worse had a payroll of $71.1 million, indistinguishable from the $72.0 million average in the NL but $37.3 million behind the winning teams, while the NL teams trailed the winners in their league by $17.6 million. Some of those American League teams kept their costs down by just giving up. Sure, a well-run small-market team can compete by filling roster spots with players who haven’t reached free agency yet and thus are paid below their market value. But the more roster spots there are to fill, the harder it is to use the farm system to keep up with the teams that are buying high-end veterans on the open market, especially the big sluggers who generally fill the ranks of DHs. The average age of the starting DHs in the AL over that period? 32.7 years old. Aside from Billy Butler on the 2007-08 Royals, no American League team employed a DH under the age of 25, and the only AL franchises to use a regular DH under age 29 were the Royals, Twins, Rays, and Blue Jays. And the DH gives roster flexibility to the biggest players in the free-agent market. The Yankees, for example, could move guys like Jason Giambi and Hideki Matsui there near the end of big contracts to make room for still more high-priced acquisitions. http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle...ics-of-baseball