caulfield12

The likelihood of default and NOT getting even 50% on those bonds back is still very high. It's just that by punting it down the road, there's the "hope and a prayer" that somehow the Greek economic system will miraculously recover by buying everyone (especially the German banks and Greek politicians) more time. The whole argument is it what point does it make more sense for the Greek government to default and the German banks to absorb those losses? Has there been one single optimistic sign or indicator the Greek government, from the beginning of this situation over a year and 1/2 ago, has started (or is even capable of) getting their economic house in order? Why throw good money after bad when the situation...with the logjam occuring between the ECB, IMF and the European Commission, the counter-argument is simply that buying more times allows the politicians to find a better solution. But the odds of the Greeks ever paying those loans off at even a 50% haircut have to be around 10-15%, probably less. Even if the Greek situation is pushed back six months, you still have Italy, Spain and maybe Belgium to deal with. The Italian dilemma's likely to be even more intractable.

Which day is your birthday? November 3rd? or 4th? Sometimes it's hard to tell which day I'm in because I'm usually 12-13 hours ahead of the rest of the board. Weird. I randomly met a German chemical engineering student here in China who had the exact same birthday (a 1 in 365.2 possibility, or 0.0027 likelihood) so we celebrated together last night. On a related topic, he mentioned my White Sox hat and said Germans were confused why Ozzie Guillen was fired, and that he would like to share a Paulaner brew with the Ozzerrooo. Go Scorpios!

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 2, 2011 -> 08:45 PM) MF Global is a poster child for exactly what I have been telling people outside the financial sector for years now: 1. There are some serious sleezballs in the trading and investment world, who will take all the chances they can to make a buck, and stomp anyone in their way. 2. Those sleezballs are but a small % of "the financial sector", which includes everyone from them to bank tellers. MF Global (formerly Man Financial, formerly EDF Man) was a successful brokerage, retail and institutional, right up until this. And the 90% of the employees in the firm who work in those areas just got screwed in the worst way. The 10% who work in prop, probably 10% of them or less finagled this mess, and brought down the ship. People who work in finance are not evil, but there are evil people who work in finance. --- Seperate but related, MF Global's demise is related primarily to two major factors. One was the absurd 40-1 leverage they were using in making naked directional bets in their prop business - much of that debt being unsecured, amazingly. Two was the pillaging of customer funds to cover the proprietary trading unit. These two types of incidents could be, if not prevented, certainly made a lot less likely two occur, by taking just three steps: 1. Implement the Volcker Rule aka Glass-Steagel. 2. Require daily public reporting of debt ratios, margin collateral condition, tagged asset ratios and excess margin capital availability and state. 3. Significant increase, and then centralization, of regulatory oversight at the federal level. And you want to know the best part? ObamaCo could do all three things, RIGHT NOW, without any further action from Congress. When I harp on regulatory uncertainty in certain sectors, this is what I am getting at. Not that they are necessarily overregulated - they are in some areas but UNDERregulated in others - but that no one knows where the hammer is going to fall. So f***ing drop it already and lets move on. Barack, we are waiting. Show some leadership. They're (the big financial institutions) all going to line up behind Romney anyway, so he has nothing to lose and more to gain by actually taking a position and sticking to it. It would be a lot better than a couple of pontificating speeches, tepid support for Occupy Wall Street but then nothing substantive to come out of it. What percentage of those making $200,000+ per year is he really going to alienate further and lose their votes, at this point?

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Nov 2, 2011 -> 10:17 PM) He must be confusing her with someone else. That makes no sense. http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7253092094138727420 Check out THE HOT SPOT, or just try any random search for Jennifer Connelly/Don Johnson or the movie title Second, the movie "Career Opportunities" I just have the advantage of being over 40 years old now and have watched her career evolve over that time. Thought of in another way, she was the Eva Green of her day. Just shows how well she has put that past behind her that nobody knows, haha.

Or futbol, more precisely (outside of England/Europe)

Santos Vows Revenge on Tigers and Marty34 Ventura looks to become first manager to win it all in debut season. Humber, rested and revitalized, looks to build on 2011 success. Chris Sale--Scouts certain he's the "next Randy Johnson" XXXX NOTRE DAME QB WILL WIN 2-3 HEISMAN TROPHIES Jake Peavy throwing 96-97 MPH in offseason workouts. Juan Pierre working with noted track specialist XXXX to get the burst back in his game, will re-sign with Sox for 2 years. Dayan Viciedo declares himself healthy, boldly predicts 30 homers and 100 RBI's, minimum of 10 outfield assists. Alexei Ramirez has added 10-15 pounds of pure muscle, targets 2nd Silver Slugger

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_leagu...urn=mlb-wp26265

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 2, 2011 -> 06:44 PM) I watched quite a few movies in the last few days. House Of Sand And Fog - Awesome Pirate Radio - Pretty damn good Attack The Block - Good About to watch Everything Must Go. I enjoyed Everything Must Go. Ferrell's performance was good enough to almost make me feel uncomfortable...although never having been around an alcoholic, it's a bit more removed on a personal level. I especially like the scenes where he was trying to bond with the latch-key kid who didn't have any role models to bond with. House of Sand and Fog was excellent, especially Kingsley and the woman whose name I can't spell who was nominated for a Best Supporting Actress Ocsar.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 2, 2011 -> 06:47 PM) Also, I don't care how old she's getting compared to when she was first in Labyrinth (15), Jennifer Connelly has hardly aged at all. I'd lose a finger to nail her. I don't know, she was cuter when she was in that seedy B movie with Don Johnson way back when. Or Career Opportunities. I'll give her huge amounts of credit for "reinventing" herself and becoming an extremely talented actress when she began as more or less a big-boobed bimbo in Hollywood. Sometimes, it seems she's gone too extreme though...losing weight, she seems gaunt.

Kate Beckinsale was really hot about 5-7 years ago. Not sure what about her has changed since...seems she's had some plastic surgery work done. Something just seems artificial about her appearance now, hard to put a finger on it.

http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/02/i...zone/?hpt=hp_c1 Italy's debt bonds at 6.4% and rising, 7% is the magic number for panic http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/20...bold/?hpt=hp_t2 The current Greek political situation going into Cannes/G-20 and no-confidence vote Friday.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Nov 2, 2011 -> 08:47 AM) Question - What's the US exposure for this? I'm sure we have our hands tied with the EU, so a drop of a country or two would hurt investors and banks here....but how much? Wouldn't the dollar have a really solid period of growth so that long-term it would be a benefit for the US? Or is that totally wrong? Look at it this way, we had the huge advantage after WW II because Europe and Japan had to be completely rebuilt, and China was instituting a repressive, inward-looking regime. Specifically, only 35% of China's GDP growth is domestic consumer spending...and that's shrunk from 45% a decade earlier. So we can't realistically look for Chinese consumption to come close to covering the losses from a European collapse. Not to mention massive spikes here in inflation, health care costs and a property bubble. Plus the RMB and USD are pegged together. Europe, dead for a decade and in a Japanese period of dormancy/stagflation. Japan, still recovering 20 years later and dealing with Fukushima fallout, literally and figuratively. That leaves Brazil, India, HK/Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea and Australia as the healthiest economies standing. http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statis.../top1108yr.html Of course, you still have Canada and Mexico, NAFTA, etc. But those alone won't re-balance this mess because Germany, the UK, Belgium, France and the Netherlands are 5 of our top 13 trade partners. It would also help if we, like, actually started reinvesting in R&D, innovation, education in SOME area other than Silicon Valley. We actually have to produce something of high quality that the rest of the world would wants to consume besides the latest Apple product (which are basically made here in Shenzhen/Guangdong Province anyway).

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Nov 1, 2011 -> 08:45 PM) It probably will happen anyway, but they've invested this much into saving it, they can't just stop now or the losses compound. Well, they can stop now -- but they'd look like "bad guys" in the eyes of the world. It doesn't really matter what happens with Greece if Italy goes down...in some ways, it might be better to get it out of the way in one fell swoop instead of putting the finger in the dike over and over again like we have in the US. Greece and Portugal leave the EU and go back to their currencies. France and Germany decide if it's worth it to save Italy and the entire system...in all likelihood, voters in neither country (especially after watching Greece walk away) will most assuredly NOT be in the mood to save other profligate/wasteful countries. And France itself isn't doing well enough to prop up the EU without Germany. The Germans have to assess what the hit will be to their export numbers in this new scenario where there's a collapse of the entire system. The Chinese, who are the biggest net exporters to the EU, have to be asking themselves the same exact question. Cost/benefit of saving the EU versus the risk of letting the entire system fall (along with all the bank defaults/contagion/automatic swaps that will kick in throughout the system with systemic failure of the sovereign debt pyramid)...

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 1, 2011 -> 02:53 PM) So what is the end game? Aside from default and/or dropping the Euro, what is the end game? Another round of austerity measures in 6 months in exchange for another debtor haircut will lead to...another round of austerity measures in 6 months in exchange for a debtor haircut, which will lead to...another round of austerity measures in 6 months in exchange for a debtor haircut... You said "Not really" when I said that the only plausible endgame was defaulting and/or leaving the Euro. Outline another option. Simple, Athens is the heart of democracy. They don't want to be ruled by Sarkozy and Merkel anymore than you or I would want to be as American citizens. Of course, the conflict is that 70% want to stay on the Euro system but 60% are opposed to the bailout/austerity measures, which, as noted, will lead to further cuts, public sector death, mass unemployment and out of control rioting. In essence, they're taking the ball and punting it back to the people and leaving the populace to decide their own fate. On the face of it, going back to the drachma and defaulting will doubtlessly benefit Greece (who will be able to recover more quickly than continuing to adhere to the austerity plan/s, especially their export sector with a new cheap currency and cheap business environment for new reinvestment)...Thailand, for example, and Russia, recovered very quickly from the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Similarly, Iceland let its banks collapse (instead of bailing them out with taxpayer dollars, a similar referendum to what Greece is now dealing with) and are much better off for it, as well. What happens next? Portugal also falls away from the euro system and all the intensity begins to focus 100% on Italy and the dysfunctional "All In the Family" political mess that makes the Guillen/KW relationship look like "Ozzie and Harriet" or the Cosby Show. If France is backed into a corner, where they actually need to produce actual money instead of just leveraging existing assets to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic, then they will also be insolvent. Meanwhile, the credit swaps kick into place that starts the dominoes falling again with a run on the banks and 100% Greek and probably Italian defaults. As Balta pointed out, whether austerity is set at 150% or 120% or whatever rate/ratio of GDP, it's simply not working, it's not tenable as an economic recovery strategy. The only counter-argument is Latvia and Turkey...about 1% of the countries in the world that can actually semi-legitimately claim that austerity/government reallocation/cutbacks are working the way they're intended in boosting the economies of those 2 anomalous countries.

That's always been one of the criticisms of the big OBP guys like Dunn or Thome, that in those situations where they needed to drive in a runner, they might "prefer" (that's the implicit criticism) to take a walk and leave the responsibility to the next hitter in the order. Especially with the Pirates' line-up at that time, Bay WAS the run production on that team. So of course what Manto said makes crystal clear sense. In all likelihood, the next hitter might hit into a DP or feel even more stressed knowing a slow, lumbering OBP guy is on base in front of him. Hitters have to know the situations and what's expected of them, what's their role on the team...that's basically it. I'll give one example, Alexei Ramirez should be a consistent run producer and he REALLY struggled to get quality at-bats when there were runners in scoring position.

I thought The Conspirator was very well done. Ebert, in his review, compared the Tom Wilkinson role (Sen. Reverdy Johnson of MD) to Obama, thought that was amusing. Have always liked Robin Wright since her days on Santa Barbara and The Princess Bride...but McAvoy was really the actor who dominates the proceedings. Called a "smart" movie, I think that largely explains why it never found a wide release. Also never knew her son (John Surratt) was "exonerated" a year later, an 8-to-4 hung jury. Kevin Kline's Stanton was obviously over the top, but you can understand it due to his close personal friendship with Lincoln which began as a rivalry.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 31, 2011 -> 01:36 PM) You should know better than to count things as firm before they actually are. The Rangers are likely to lose CJ this offseason, that will leave them more reliant on Harrison and other youth in their rotation, which is always a risk. Then there's Cruz and Hamilton staying healthy. And like it or not, Verlander probably just showed you what a "Peak season" looks like...and they had other very helpful things like great years from Avila and Peralta. Last year, I'd say 2/3 of this board would have agreed that the Twins were the team to beat in the Central. It shifted just that fast. Feldman won 17 games for them not so long ago. There's talk of flip-flopping Ogando and Feliz, respectively.

I finally made it through Paranormal Activity 3...god, except for a couple of "jump out of your seat" scenes, the fact they've already made $80 million (with Halloween showings coming up) is pretty amazing, on an initial investment of only $5 million or so. Must be the most profitable movie franchises in history. "In Time" seems to be doomed by the critics, poor/convoluted trailers and skepticism about Timberlake ever making it as a lead actor to carry a picture. Amanda Seyfried's zany wig doesn't help matters much.

Evans, who most recently has worked as a player agent, would be a good addition to Epstein's staff in some capacity as he is a Chicago native with the type of generational knowledge on Wrigley Field that Epstein had on Fenway when he took over the Red Sox. C'mon, does Evans having worked in Chicago really matter THAT much? By that definition, Kim Ng would be just as good a hire...or anyone familiar with Chicago, for that matter. Heck, they might as well hire Bill Rancic from The Apprentice, and Guiliana.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 30, 2011 -> 05:53 PM) Or a Sith... It's VERY clear the biggest win for the Cardinals was clearing out the drama and clubhouse intrigue in the showdown with TLR. It isn't a coincidence that the team took off after he was subtracted (much the same way the White Sox probably will when Rios is gone)? As far as Jackson goes, they get back Wainright and add Shelby Miller, they'll be just fine in the starting pitcher category.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Oct 28, 2011 -> 11:54 PM) I have a hard time believing the Blue Jays regret trading a bunch of non-cornerstone bullpen pieces for Colby Rasmus, a potential star CF. Staying on the Blue Jays as an example, I remember them trading Jeff Kent for David Cone. They Jays won the WS, but the Mets (who were not a contender) received a HOF second baseman. Both teams won. The situations of teams involved in the trade dictated the needs and the therefore the outcome. To say the Cardinals "won" inherently says the other team(s) lost. This is simply not the case. Each team had different needs, and each teams needs were fulfilled. The Cardinals got pitching depth, the Jays got upside future talent, and the White Sox shed payroll (with a slight infusion of young talent). It's a common flaw of those outside the industry to assume one team is trying to fleece another. It makes for a nice narrative when it's time to print some stories, but it's an inaccurate representation of reality. Or we could look back at the Foulke for Koch deal. On the surface, it was a disaster for the White Sox. It led to Gordon/Marte and eventually Shingo as the Sox closer. It also netted Cotts, who flamed out as a starter but had one anomalous season in 2005, which resulted in a World Series. Did the White Sox really "win" this trade simply because they acquired Cotts as well and won the World Series, and the A's didn't?

How can Jose Reyes go to the Marlins? They're going to move Hanley Ramirez to 3B or 1B? Wonder if the White Sox would take a look at JD Drew on an incentive-laden deal if they trade Quentin?

I feel a little bit sorry for Rangers' fans. They've never won a World Series, dating back to the Washington Senators days.

This feels like the 1985 World Series. As soon as the Cardinals lost that game to th Royals (the Denkinger call), they were cooked. Would be shocking if the Rangers lose this game (afte being a batter away twice and blowing it twice) and end up pulling out a Game 7 win. Reminds me of that game this year where Teahen hit the home to tie it and the Sox kept coming back only to blow it in the end.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 26, 2011 -> 04:59 AM) I'm pretty much in the middle on this one. Danks really has no value to the White Sox right now, he's not that good of a prospect, but he's shown a bit of power in the past and plays good defense. If a coach within your system can get through to him and he hits a little bit, you have a 2-3 WAR player on your hands in his good seasons. If I'm Houston or Minnesota - especially Minnesota who pretty much have jack squat in the minors for OFers right now - I'll take a chance on Danks in a second. Depends on how they fit Revere, Span (if he ever recovers) and Hicks (eventually) into the picture. Then you have Cuddyer and Kubel, possibly/probably one of them returning. But I guess you could argue Danks is better than Rene Tosoni.