caulfield12

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 04:20 PM) And that KW would then overpay in a trade of Quentin for some hard throwing, not as effective as should be reliever. Koch is the only time this has happened in recent memory. I can't think of a time where we lost a position player who was of Quentin's ilk for a reliever, can you? I guess if you want to throw out B. Allen for Pena in the discussion, but the jury's still far from out on Allen.

Let's say that we could get Derek Lee for $6-8 million (and not have to commit to more than one season)... I would guess the probability is at least 30-60% that DLee has a better season than Konerko in 2010...right? So I guess the question of 1) having the payroll flexibility going forward in 2012/13, when Buehrle's coming off the books theoretically and we can get back two draft picks as well...2) and the fact that we could spend that $4.5-6.5 million on one or two relievers who kick up the probability of having a more solid bullpen in 2011, that mitigates some of my excitement about bringing back Paulie. It's also like you wish he would have faded like Thome in 2009 so the decision wouldn't be so murky...because I don't think anybody would be willing to bet their 401K he would ever have another season in 2011-12-13 approaching the overall numbers and consistency he displayed this past season. Of course, if it's a matter of having Konerko or Derek Lee (with no spending of the differential on the bullpen because Paulie becomes an exception for JR), then you have to side with Paulie, but guaranteeing 3 years is quite scary.

The Orioles are a prime example of this. They spent a ton of money on D. Baez, Chad Bradford and a lefty who had a "one hit" wonder of a season with the Tigers (the name is escaping me) and it bought them nothing except for a big headache. KW saw VERY mixed results with spending money on Dotel, Linebrink and MacDougal. Dotel and Linebrink were a very big part of the 2008 team winning the division (barely), but Linebrink's contract became the worst on the team (arguably) until Teahen last year. Of course, the 2006-2007 modus operandi of throwing a bunch of talented arms at the problem with no idea how to pitch didn't work so well either...in particular, pitchers like Aardsma (great for half a season before imploding), Sisco and Masset had their ups and downs with the Sox. But, if you go back ten plus years, you can find few closers we've spent a lot of money on. Roberto Hernandez Howry (White Flag trade) Foulke (White Flag trade) Koch (dumb, dumb, dumb) Marte (trade for Guerrier) Flash Gordon (undervalued FA) Shingo Takatsu (FA) Jenks (waiver claim) Thornton (for Borchard) Sale (draft pick) Santos (waiver claim/trade) If there's another Tom Gordon out there on the market, that's the type of pitcher KW will go after. Dotel doesn't have the stuff anymore to get it done, and he will still be much more expensive than he's worth. David Riske also comes to mind here, someone who can contribute at the back end of the bullpen and not kill you, probably a veteran on the downside of his career coming off a down season or injury. But someone not quite so desperate as Jeff Nelson or Jose Paniagua HOPEFULLY. It's hard to find another Politte or Cotts...and for them to jell at the same time, is even more difficult.

After last season's second half bullpen meltdown and the 2007 season, only having 3 relievers (I'm not counting Pena as "quality") and two of them being Sale and Santos, that's a bit scary. If those four guys ALL pitched to their abilities, then you're not quite so worried. But the last time that happened was 2005 and the first half of 2008. And that's making another big assumption you don't need Sale as a starter at some point. And projecting Infante into the bullpen when we're going "all in" might be asking for trouble, although it's better than spending money on Octavio Dotel or Kyle Farnsworth, etc. So still really torn on the Lee + bullpen help versus Konerko argument. OFC, would love for money NOT to be the deciding factor, but when has that ever been the case with teams outside of NY and usually Boston?

If you could subtract Buehrle or Peavy from the payroll, then Ichiro would actually fit nicely. Of course, the M's wouldn't take on either of those two contracts, but I'd think they would be interested in Viciedo/Mitchell/Sale (some combination of one of them) + Quentin + Floyd/Danks for Ichiro. As mentioned before, he basically pays for himself. Now he's lost a couple of steps and not the same player he was a decade ago when he was in his prime, but he's far from Ken Griffey, Jr., Manny Ramirez or Roberto Remember the Alomar.

Remember when Juan Gonzalez turned down an 8 year, $143 million extension with the Tigers because of the dimensions at Comerica? That was back when that kind of money actually meant something. One of the worst decisions in baseball history.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Dec 6, 2010 -> 10:23 AM) It sounds like the Diamondbacks are making a big late push for Paulie. The consensus is that it's far to late in the process to have an impact. The thing that would suck there is we would only get their 2nd round pick. Seems pretty unlikely, location makes sense but that team is far from competitive, despite how chaotic the NL West is...and the Giants aren't so bad, either.

The rate things are going, Cliff Lee will be the second $200 million contract. "You know what would be REALLY cool, $1 billion!" Just read that the Phillies' best possible offer was $60 milllion and 4 years, but the reported offer in the media was for "only" $48 million.

I think those numbers for Crawford at the back end of the career are even more risky than Werth's, because Crawford might end up a bit like Shannon Stewart at that time, versus Werth will still retain his power (theoretically). Both of them run the legit risk of being Soriano/Zito/Mark Hampton/Jaime Navarro/Cho Han Park/Darren Dreifort bad contracts.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Dec 6, 2010 -> 10:08 AM) What no Lillibridge?! If DeAza tears it up in ST, maybe. But since Lilly can play CF at least and has more positional versatility (and so does Omar at age 44-45), they seem to prefer those two. DeAza seems like he needs to be getting regular PT to be effective, imo. In ideal world, they would jettison Teahen's contract, but that's not possible and KW isn't going to eat another $3-6 million because they think Teahen can make himself valuable (to at least one other team) again.

I guess Gartrell played fairly well in the AFL or Winter Ball that he's now considered a legit option? The funny thing is that nobody ever would have thought one year ago that the contracts for Derek Jeter with the Yankees (3 years with 4th as option) would have been remotely similar...I still don't believe the White Sox are crazy enough to go 3 years and $51 million for Konerko, but it's crazy to think that those are the numbers that will come in and that 25% of the fanbase will actually be somewhat pleased with that signing. Maybe after Werth, those numbers make sense, but holy hell, they scare me going down the line 2-3 years. Part of it is the legitimate fear that Viciedo is a break-out star and goes on to become an All-Star and Paulie breaks down and there's nothing close to a replacement bat in the system with that impact.

Do you really think Morel is capable of hitting 20-30 homers per year? That's a bit of a stretch...to even his most ardent fans? Whether Morel can develop into a "clutch" performer like a Uribe or Crede at the plate, time will tell.

The White Sox got back $4-4.5 million for David Wells in 2001 and he pitched over 100 innings that year. I think the insurance payouts have changed greatly though....I wonder how much the insurance outlay would be for the contracts of Konerko, Dunn, Rios, Peavy and Buehrle on a yearly basis. Certainly not cheap.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Dec 5, 2010 -> 08:45 PM) Another thing to consider about this signing is that it may behoove the Sox to trade for another pitcher ASAP. Fairly certain that Boras will get Jackson a big contract somewhere else after next year. On the other hand, you knew with all the movement in his early career, Jackson would like to stick around with one organization for 2-3 seasons if he feels really comfortable. Otherwise, he will end up being another Miguel Batista, albeit with much more talent and stuff...just bouncing around from place to place.

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Dec 5, 2010 -> 07:41 PM) i think this is exactly what it is. If Nats offer was comparable to Bos, Philly, or another "winning" team he would have gone there, they probably had to blow him out of the water with a deal. It is also a bit reminiscent of the Royals throwing (for them) huge money at Gil Meche and Jose Guillen. You have to overpay if you're not a competitive team, in order to get some credibility. But my god, that contract is 4 years longer than almost any sane GM in the game would have given. This contract, in some ways, might end up having more repercussions than the Hicks/A-Rod deal. To put it in perspective, that's more money on Werth than the franchise has spent in 20 years COMBINED on free agents. My jaw dropped when I saw those numbers for a borderline All-Star player, but certainly no superstar. I actually think Ordonez's deal with the Tigers was much better than this one will end up.

QUOTE (knightni @ Dec 5, 2010 -> 09:50 AM) The Nats might need a power bat. I bet that their minors have a few guys that the Sox would want. Do you really think after the bad blood last year that Rizzo and KW are likely to make a trade now? Especially after we just signed Dunn? If I'm another team, I might just take my chances with Jermaine Dye on an incentive-laden deal versus giving up young talent for Quentin...maybe there are a lot of NL teams willing to put him in the OF, but I don't think so. A lot of the turf stadiums are gone, but the NL has always been a home for more athletic outfielders until recent years. Plus, they really have to get some indications on Zimmerman and Strasburg...and even to start putting together a Harper timetable for ETA, before they start making significant monetary commitments going forward.

So our best options at 1B after Konerko are DLee, Pena, LaRoche and Chris Davis (maybe) in that order OR Viciedo/Teahen platoon

As long as the plan isn't for Andruw Jones to be the everyday RFer and to just boot Quentin's salary off the payroll for a few B prospects. And newcomer Edwin Jackson is owed $13.35 million over the next two seasons, although that might be a tough contract to deal. Phil Rogers wrote this today. One, it's crazy to think they couldn't trade Jackson if they really wanted. Part two of the craziness, I only thought we had him for 2011 at $8.5 million or whatever it is. Then someone else had written that we have him for two more years....if we want and offer him arbitration before 2012, but I was almost positive he was a FA. Certainly, I think Rogers is wrong here in today's article.

Is there even such a thing as midget porn? Well, with both Konerko and Dunn, there's no place for Viciedo, unless he plays RF and Quentin is dealt. I suppose there's a chance he goes back to 3B again if Morel's bat fails. We really don't want to see Teahen at 3B or RF, so it seems that KW has no choice but to do another Linebrink-esque deal to get him off the roster and away from the playing field.

Werth's going to be simply too expensive (and too many years), same with Crawford. But KW definitely has a Plan B in mind, namely Lee/Pena/LaRoche...obviously he realized not having a back-up plan at DH when they let Thome go was a complete disaster, and they couldn't fill that hole at the trading deadline either. Agree that Werth would be the better sign, but not at those figures. For some reason, he scares me a bit coming to the AL. He was originally a big bust and then he really found himself later in his career, not unlike Raul Ibanez.

How did trading Linebrink free up $4 million....? Wouldn't it be just $2 million saved that could be reallocated theoretically? Or did I miss something?

Trading Jackson leaves us with Sale as our fourth starter and no rotation until Peavy comes back, if/when he does. Pitching is obviously the most valuable commodity still in baseball, if we trade Jackson/Floyd/Danks we have to get younger/affordable/high potential impact pitching back, particularly due to the dearth of talent in our own system. Unless we bring back Garcia or sign someone like J. Washburn or Jeremy Bonderman for insurance.

I'm in the camp that we have to replace that RH reliever somehow...beyond even Putz. I have no faith in our minor league system, and Sergio Santos is still a bit of a wild card. I'd love to believe he can post the same numbers (overall) as 2010 but I'm not entirely buying into it quite yet. Of course, if we're committed to carrying a $120-130 million budget the next 3 years, great, bring back Konerko. But I would still prefer only commitment of a 2 year contract with a 3rd year club option, and there are teams out there that might be willing to give 3-4 guaranteed years coming off 2010. It's great right now to think we HAVE to have Paulie back, but it might not be so great a year or two down the line when KW and JR are bringing up budgets again and lower fan support and having to pare back the roster like we almost did in 2010 before catching fire. Of all the contracts over the last decade, Konerko's ranks up there with having had its moments where it seemed a ball and chain around the organization's neck. Other than Konerko, the only other ones that come to mind immediately are Contreras, MacDougal, Linebrink and now, apparently, Teahen and Pierre to a lesser extent. Peavy, I suppose...that has to be the greatest concern going forward. If you knew he was going to be healthy or tradeable at some point, I would take on Konerko's 3 years, but between Peavy and Rios, it's quite a risk to have another player at those numbers.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Dec 3, 2010 -> 09:15 AM) I like Borbon because he should be available - he's being squeezed out of Texas' OF and they have prospects with much higher ceilings already on his tail. His ceiling is probably Pierre with better pop, but that's valuable for 5 years of control. I don't think he's like massively valuable, just a nice fit. Putting him in LF with Pierre in another uniform and us not having to pay anything (who knows if this is possible, just me guessing) would give us the money to sign a reliever. So I've put that forth a couple times. The above scenario I proposed would be pretty much impossible, because the Rangers would probably offer just as much as we would, and why would Lee stiff them and come here? I'm not saying we'd ever get Lee, just that it's kind of crazy to examine the possibilities that exist when you have a payroll like that. It's kind of ---- weird. But I like it. The thing that really sucks is if Mitchell had stayed healthy and continued progressing in 2010 and KW didn't get desperate with Pierre and Teahen, we might actually be able to talk about a name like Cliff Lee realistically. Then again, when we had Contreras/Buehrle/Javy/Garland/Garcia in 2006 our rotation was even more expensive.

QUOTE (Rooftop Shots @ Dec 3, 2010 -> 09:03 AM) Laughed when I saw this, but at the same time, on the serious side, you brought up a great point! You wonder if that is crossing his mind to some extent? Not sure how old he is, but if you keep waiting in life to live out your passions, you have to go "ALL IN" before your time and opportunities run out. Not sure how his health is, but at his age, you wonder how much more waiting he can deal with. Regardless how much he spends, he and his family will still live comfortably, so I agree, why not totally jump in for 2 more years? If we make it...Great! If not, at least he can look back and have no "What If's!!!" Jerry wants another W.S. It makes me wonder that if he realized that the only way it will have the best chance to come is to unload the bank? esprcially with Minny and Det breathing on our necks! if that's the case...........I will be reading Soxtalk like crazy for updates when the winter meetings start. If we're "ALL IN" then what does next week bring in? It's not baseball season yet, but this has the makings for a possible best ever enjoyable hot stove season. Or a very boring one. It could be simply Konerko/Lee/Pena OR sticking Viciedo/Teahen out there... Looking for one or two "undervalued" bullpen arms for bounceback years like Politte/Hermanson Trying to package Morel/Flowers/Viciedo/Quentin and Danks/Floyd/Jackson for am impact 3B/DH/RF...while they're throwing money around, they might as well overpay for Adrian Beltre and really go "all in." Then the ongoing dumping of Teahen/Linebrink/Pierre conversations as well.