caulfield12

Of course, the other side of this argument is people who have little to no experience playing the game at a high level, but dismiss all statistics and refuse to discuss them with those who swear by them, lol. I do agree with one sentiment expressed in the original message post. That MOST people in baseball, while they have a healthy and growing respect for the new metrics, are always going to be biased in favor of the "good 'ol boy" network in baseball, and most major league front offices and coaching staffs will be filled with former players and coaches. I don't think you will ever find a coaching staff using "stats geeks" in any area but the front office, because the players won't ever treat them seriously. I consider Sosnick one of the few agents who has ever made it into the "inner circle" without a playing background and he had a VERY VERY difficult time, and he had the luxury of being basically a young, super rich guy who wanted to get more involved in the game....as someone with background in Sports Management (that doesn't qualify me as an expert either), I've seen most of my peers get stuck in marketing types of jobs, although a few have made it in coaching. Still, those who made it in coaching/scouting had backgrounds playing in those areas, at least at the college level. Yes, there's Beane, Epstein, Daniels, Byrnes (fired), Jack Z. (he's losing his reputation already this year for building a team almost entirely based on defensive metrics), Ricciardi, DiPodesta, the young GM in Cleveland who will replace Shapiro, but of that new generation of GM's, none of them has been an unqualified success, and I would even say there's something of rebound back to the side of traditional scouting MIXED with a bit of SABR analysis. It's easy to use the Red Sox as an example, but it's like Phil Jackson...we'll never know if Theo could take over the Royals or Pirates and turn those organizations around with limited budgetary resources, whether you have Bill James around or not. In fact, I think most young SABR people believe James has been passed up already by the young generation of stat geeks. The other thing that's interesting is you still see VERY VERY women in baseball, or Asians (there are exceptions, because the Mariners' ownership group, Christine Ng, etc.)

I think what started this debate was Dave Cameron writing that because he (Greinke) referenced a SABR stat once (like FIP or something like that), that it was therefore somehow logical that he was also upset with the Royals because Yuniesky Betancourt has one of the worst UZR ratings in baseball, or something like that...also, the idea that players and agents will start using these stats to criticize their FO's or speak out in the press. I think that was a bit of a stretch...using statistics to back up your arguments is always helpful, but it's definitely not the be-all, end-all to debate. In fact, someone brought up how the Twins had never used any kind of SABR analysis at all until the 2010 season, their famous quote from GM Smith about "trusting their eyes" in terms of scouting. In actuality, Greinke has seen Meche go down with injuries, rumors about Soria being traded, Farnsworth gone, Pods gone, Guillen gone, Ankiel gone, Callaspo gone...it's logical that his comments were more reflective of these transactions than how good Betancourt's range factor was at any given moment.

Unless he can play 3B, he's blocked by Lillibridge, Beckham, Ramirez, Teahen, Vizquel and Viciedo. I guess it depends if Vizquel returns in 2011 and if Lillibridge can sustain his hitting, because he brings a lot to the team as a pinch-runner. It's still a big question who plays 3B next year.

QUOTE (RME JICO @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 06:18 AM) The Twins have been a better team (or at least finished higher than us in the standings) every year except 2000, 2005, and 2008. So I would think that would correlate more to who wins the head to head battle year in and year out. So obviously if they are a better team for 7 out of the last 10 years, then they will also have a pretty good lead in the head to head games as well. So our performance against them seems to dictate how we will finish. If we don't win the last couple of series vs them, and bring the head to head record closer, it is hard to see how we can catch them. But it's still quite difficult to explain that 4-19 second half record (sure, 2009, we weren't good for any consistent stretch) especially 1-6 in the second half of 2008. And I don't think many White Sox players or fans would admit that the 2003 and 2004 Twins should have beaten the White Sox or that were even the superior team...usually 2003 is blamed on Manuel and 2004 on injuries (and the MetroDome disadvantage). Clearly, the 2009 Twins were better.

QUOTE (RME JICO @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 07:01 AM) Do the 2001 White Sox really have any relevance to how the 2010 White Sox will perform against the Twins this year? Well, since Buehrle and Konerko were around in 2001, maybe it's just one little bit of the history. 2000 and 2005 really shouldn't count either, by that way of thinking...or 4-19 the last three years after the All-Star Break, but it's certainly getting in the heads of Ozzie and his wife.

Including 2000 and 2005, and 2010... 85-107 After the All-Star Break, 35-62 (overall), 50-45 before ASB At Minnesota after the ASB, 18-35 (17-27 at USCF) 2003 (losing the last five games in a row), 2004 (2-7 after Break), 2008 (1-6), 2009 (1-8) and 2010 (2-5) have been the years that are (or will be) most remembered. In 2001, the Twins were up and coming and we were injury-decimated. By my count, Ozzie Guillen is 64-72 against the Twins, including Game 163. (1-4-1) 10-20 (11-26 going back to 2nd half of 2008) the last two years and not having beaten them head-to-head since 2005, not so good.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 02:22 AM) What a crock of s***. The Twins are the Sox biggest competitors this year and it's to the point where it is almost a yearly occurance. The fact that they can't beat them or that the fans expectations are to split is outrageous. I guarantee you that neither Red Sox nor Yankees fans ever go into that series and think that going 9-9 "is hoping for too much." This is a major league baseball team and they should have the ability to beat the living hell out of the Twins. Maybe I'm just a crazy optimist, but I expect the Sox to win the next two series. The Sox will have their best 3 pitchers going against the Twins next week, and if you can't win 2 out of 3 with your best 3 going against the team in direct competition with you, then you probably don't deserve to be in the postseason anyways. I went back and looked at the season, head-to-head over the last decade. 2001=5-14 2002=8-11 2003=9-10 2004=9-10 2006=9-10 2007=9-9 2008=8-10 (9-10 counting Game 163) 2009=6-12 Nothing terrible, right? Overall 63-86. Well, definitely not great, that's for sure. (I'll add in the 2000 and 2005 numbers later to see how much it helps). Here's where the big problems start for Sox fans. After the All-Star Break during that time period, 23-48 (14-20 at USCF) against the Twins. 9-28 in Minnesota, AFTER the All-Star Break. That's why I put 2-4 (realistically) is about the best I'd hope for.

CircleChange11 says: August 13, 2010 at 10:51 am [1] You know who would appreciate these baseball metrics … NERDS … highly educated guys who went to academic colleges, and like to nerd it up. Ohlendorf and the like. Academic types that enjoy the details of a formula/scenario. You know how many of those guys are in MLB? Not many. [2] I would also bet that guys tend to like sabermetric stuff when they lead in a category. Want me to speak on the wonders of FIP? Show me that I’m the best at it, and my other bad stats are due to team defense. I’m all over that. I’d bet right now, Cliff Lee really appreciates the K:BB metric. It’s probably his favorite stat. *grin* [3] Not only do many major leaguers not pay attention to what we say … many of them think we have no right to say it. The whole not speaking from experience part. IMO, we’re like a homeless guy writing a book on how to make millions … in the opinion department. The value of sites like this are the extensions of the mega-research done and brought to the masses. But a lot of what is written here is just wrong opinion. If someone were to keep “individual W-L records” for the authors, what would the winning % be for each guy? [4] The article (by Dave Cameron) says that Yuni (Betancourt) has the range of a wilted teen. No, Yuni has the range of a major league shortstop, which makes him what? 1 out of 10 million people to have the skill/ability? You really think any athlete is going to come and read stuff like that and give credence to some keyboard jockey's opinion? [5] When Crash Davis gets a 5y/110M contract and for justification the GM states, “He has the most WAR of any catcher over the last 4 years.” THEN, Nuke will say, “Hey Annie, what’s all this WAR stuff.” We drastically overestimate our influence and popularity in the mainstream. Growing, yes? Influential? No. Potential to educate lots of fans? Yes. from fangraphs.com message boards

I think the Orioles gave out a ton of money to Denys Baez, Jamie Walker and maybe Chad Bradford 3-4 years ago. Those were not the best-laid plans, it's like picking mutual funds coming off their highest performances and thinking they'll repeat...very rarely does that happen with relievers, Linebrink was reliable as they come in the NL for about 8-10 years and he basically fell apart after his first four months with the White Sox.

If they brought him up to finish the season in the SAL with Kannapolis, those results would be a LITTLE more impressive. Still, for an SEC college player, you really have to see how they fare in the Carolina/Cal/Florida State Leagues before you can make ANY predictions that remotely approximate predictive validity.

2-4 seems like a much safer prediction against the Twins, 3-3 might be hoping a bit too much.

Oakland gets 12 hits and has managed only 2 runs somehow. Twins escape from another bases loaded, one out situation with a double play behind Jesse Crain. Carter has left 5 men on base, of course.

2-0 now Twins leading. Can we seriously have a mulligan on this last week?

Thanks, Gio Gonzalez. Bases loaded walk to Kubel, which might not be the worst thing if he can get out of it somehow. Our ex prospects who are pitching well can't even seem to beat the Twins.

The Jonathan Ogden and Pitino ones were the best....after the first two Pitino ads, the British actor is QUITE a bit over the top, but it's actually pretty funny and I bet they had to do 100 takes because everyone was cracking up filming with "GUY"

You could put this year's DH fiasco right up there with the year (maybe it was 2007) that we didn't have any veteran relievers (specifically loogies) and we auditioned about 13 of them in Spring Training. Even though it was the last position on the baseball team, the relief problems stuck around for most of that season, with the exception of Jenks being very good (I think that was the year he had his streak of innings without giving up a run, yes?)

I think there are definitely two generations mostly reflected here at SoxTalk. The ones who are mostly in their early to mid 20's, college students or recent graduates...and then those that grew up and actually remember White Sox baseball in the 1990's, 80's and even the 1970's, especially in Old Comiskey Park. I would guess those younger fans (unlike myself) tend to be a bit more confident and optimistic, perhaps a bit less patient, having witnessed perhaps the most successful generation of Sox baseball, certainly since the 1950's and probably all the way back to the teen's and aught's. Having suffered through so much disappointment, it's a bit easier to become cynical and jaded about Sox baseball. Heck, the same feeling pervades many posters (and I'll admit to being a big obsessed with beating the Twins) in their lack of belief in this current team being able to overcome the Twins. Actually, it's not just me. There's a reason (besides the heat) that none of the three games against the Twins were close to being sell-outs. I really think that much of the fanbase believes that June/July was a mirage and that the team will fade down the stretch. EVERYONE in baseball (and probably half of outer space if aliens are tuned into message boards) knows that the White Sox are at least one hitter short. It's ironic, because in 2003 and perhaps part of 2010, there has been the belief that the White Sox had the pitching to compete with any team in baseball...accompanied by the belief that something was missing in terms of a hitter (or team chemistry and managing in the case of Manuel), etc. Actually, I would also just throw out a number of 25-33% who really question Ozzie's ability to lead this baseball team, doubts that have become progressively larger over the last five years (although interestingly, I don't think the doubters will be quieted by the "miracle" comeback into contention and first place this season). I'm not sure what would be worse, actually, being a White Sox fan and believing your team will lose to the Twins again, or being a Twins' fan and believing your team will make the playoffs and lose in the first round (which has happened on 4/5 occasions this decade, with the lone exception being a defeat of the A's, an even smaller market team). I suppose they can always rejoice in 1987 and 1991, but "modern" Twins' fans in their teen and twenties don't have those memories to fall back on for comfort.

The question with Allen is whether he would be good enough to start for the White Sox in 2011 and replace Konerko? I don't think the answer there is yes, I think it's MAYBE, as part of a platoon. Theoretically, you could have Viciedo and Allen together, that would be a nice tandem. Somehow, Teahen would have to fit into the picture, the same player who doesn't really fit unless you logically bench Kotsay, which Guillen may or may not do. An athletic, cost-controlled 1B who will get you 350 AB's is worth more than a back-end reliever, FWIW. The problem is that Carter hasn't proven he can even put up an 800 OPS at that position. Carter's a bit of a different story, but are you going to give up Quentin's production in 2008 and 2010 to get Carter back for 2011? That's clearly a huge debate, and 90% of the board will come down on the side of CQ, injuries aside, because proven MLB production almost always trumps potential, unless you're talking a Mike Stanton, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera type of impact bat, and Carter's clearly not in that category. To tell the truth, I'm not even sure KW would trade Viciedo for Carter straight up. Maybe.

We are better at SS and in CF with Ramirez and Rios. You can make "ability" arguments for Quentin over Cuddyer in RF and Beckham over Hudson at 2B (not this year for Beckham, clearly). You can even argue Vizquel over Valencia if you want. But when they have Young, Thome, Kubel, Morneau, Mauer and Cuddyer in the line-up and healthy at the same time, they clearly overmatch us because of our offensive weaknesses in LF, 3B, 2B (for most of the season), DH and C. The Twins didn't really win that game, we just gave it to them in so many ways...and that's how they often beat you. I like to think of them as the Martina Hingis of baseball teams (although they're clearly better offensively than their 2002-04/06 versions)...they just keep hitting the ball back at you and wait for you to make a mistake or error. They're not as fast or as gifted defensively as in the past, they have more sluggers without sound fundamentals and fewer role players, but they're good. But, like Martina Hingis, they're outgunned when they play the best...in this case, they're at least one pitcher short in the starting rotation. Still, Liriano (although erratic) has great stuff, Pavano and Baker can be solid, although I think of them more as 3's or 4's than true aces, although Pavano has been their best pitcher for most of the season, with the exception of a 8-10 start stretch for Liriano before he started to fall apart.

We just didn't show up ready to play. Gavin was tight and didn't have any confidence until the 4th. The defense and balk gave up two early runs. We couldn't hit to save our life with RISP and Liriano got ahead of all those hitters and had them on their heels. Too bad Viciedo's ball didn't go out for a grand slam or it would have turned out completely different. And Quentin is laughable in the OF, once again.

Were those cheers for Liriano from Twins' fans?

What's up with the crowd? I think, for some reason, the Chicago fans have not warmed up to this team...it's incredible the reaction that last inning. Strange they didn't even really get all that excited at any point in the inning, then booing at the end of Quentin's strikeout.

I could have sworn someone said he was throwing upwards of 100 MPH these days...that's why I brought his name back up, since he was in the Hudson category of being on quite a few lists as a Top 40-60 MILB prospect coming out around the time of the trade.

So the best argument for Teahen is half of a DH/1B platoon with Viciedo next year. The problem with that is Viciedo's never going to learn how to be a big league hitter playing 1-3 games per week. In the last 10 days, the scouting reports have caught up with him and it's very hard to adjust as a part-time player. I really don't want to see Teahen in the OF either, although he would be a SLIGHT improvement over Quentin, it would definitely not be strengthening our OF defense compared to using Andruw Jones out there.

At one point, those Braves' teams looked to have Andruw and Chipper Jones, Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux and Steve Avery all headed to the Hall of Fame. Avery's career was wiped out by the injuries, and Jones has very little chance to make it now, although he will probably get a lot of votes because of his 10 Gold Gloves.