caulfield12

QUOTE (kyyle23 @ Apr 21, 2009 -> 11:56 AM) Not according to the article that someone wrote, somewhere, at sometime Here's a statistic for you. AT-BATS where the count reaches 2 strikes (0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2)....performance from 2006-2008. Brian Anderson 142 K's/253 chances=57% chance of a strikeout Josh Fields 142 K's/233 chances=61% chance of a strikeout Does that mean that Brian Anderson is a better hitter than Josh Fields?

QUOTE (lostfan @ Apr 21, 2009 -> 10:11 AM) Why are we talking about Viciedo struggling in the cold by the way? 5 day forecast for Birmingham: 68, 75, 82, 86, 84. Hopefully Viciedo doesn't get hypothermia down there. I don't think he's struggling with the weather or rain. I do think he's going through the typical transition issues that every Latin player goes through (see the upcoming movie "Sugar") when they come to play baseball in the US, and especially a place that's really different from what they're used to (say the Pioneer League or the strange accents/dialects of people from the South). I don't know firsthand what Viciedo's English level is, and if he has someone assigned to spend time with him (the Seattle SuperSonics actually had an intern whose job it was to make sure Sean Kemp got out of bed and got to practice on time)...I can only say that when I worked for the Pirates' minor league team, most of those guys struggled to order from the McDonald's menu. They needed help with finding a car (leasing, buying, renting, etc.) and reading a contract for an apartment. There are just so many details. Having now had the opportunity to live outside the US in four countries (China, Thailand, Philippines and Colombia), I have a much greater appreciation for these issues and the big impact they can have on players....finding a church, dealing with girls and groupies and having freedom away from their parents, ordering food, doing their laundry, trying to learn English, basic communication, it can be very frustrating and alienating. Now I'm not saying these all are excuses whey Viciedo has an OPS less than Brent Lillibridge. It is just 41 at-bats. He has at least come up with some timely RBI's. We know he can drive the ball...he did so in spring training. Over 140 games, the true/r nature of a player comes out. Perhaps he's just putting pressure on himself because of the signing bonus and contract, because of what Alexei did last year, because of all the posts by Cubano, there are many factors.

1) First you'd have to isolate all those players like Pujols who essentially grew up in Kansas City (Ft. Osage, to be exact) from the Hispanic players that live in the US year-round and then those who live in the Caribbean, Panama, Mexico, Venezuela, etc., in the offseason. 2) Then you'd have to throw out those players who played Winter Ball, because someone would make an argument they were more "tired" or not "fresh" coming into the season. 3) Then you'd have to look at those games that started in April and May with a temperature below 40 degrees...or 50 degrees...or with a wind chill factor of X amount, etc. 4) Then you'd have to look at the baseline for all players in those games and compare... So it could be proven, but in the same way UZR or Zone Rating determines a player's defensive effectiveness, it wouldn't be pristine or perfect in any sense. On the other hand, it would equally difficult to disprove...as many opinions tend to be.

Lillibridge is on fire...we can't take him out of the line-up. He's the IGNITER.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 21, 2009 -> 07:52 AM) Its a lot easier to pitch in the cold than hit in the cold. I think Contreras struggling is because he's had a long layoff and is in the middle of his "spring training". The cold weather should help him. The pitcher has the advantage the colder it is. I remember them always saying the Cubans do much better in "Cuban weather." The thing is, Contreras isn't loose or relaxed....not sweating in any of the games. You can see that he doesn't have confidence in anything but the fastball. That comes with time and heat/better weather conditions. And his velocity is not back, either. I'm sure that will change as June/July/August come around.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 21, 2009 -> 07:50 AM) I would say .238 with no walks and only 1 double and 0 other extra base hits in AA is struggling for someone who a lot thought would be on the White Sox opening day roster. That said, I wouldn't be alarmed. I do think there might be something to the weather, especially with Viciedo. He probably had never played a game where the temperature was below 60 degrees in his life until this month. I'm sure there's an adjustment, not only to the weather, but the culture, etc. I think and hope he will be alright. I would think the majority of Latin players have learned to play in the cold, but guys like Alexei and Viciedo haven't really been exposed to it very long and their adjustment period is just beginning. Its a very different feeling standing at the plate when there's a 25 degree wind chill vs. 80 degrees. At least we can hope its the weather, because if its anything else, it could be troublesome. Yes, because he did crush the ball the first week of ST and also hit quite a few liners and doubles to the opposite field. His contact rate has dramatically increased, but the power numbers are below Sweeney/Lillibridge.

But Contreras became dominant in 2005 when it was really hot in late July, August and September... You think "cold weather" has only an affect on baseball players? Why aren't other sports relevant?

I'm sure someone has done a study...and that there is some statistical validity to the fact that players who come out of Latin America struggle more in the early months. Do you think it's coincidence Ramirez has looked atrocious in both April 08 and April 09? That Viciedo is struggling? Both hit well in spring training...at least pretty good, and much better than now. Why does Contreras pitch much better in the heat of the summer? Are all of these complete coincidences lacking in statistical validity? Why do "warm weather" or Dome teams do poorly in Green Bay or Chicago in December or January? Viciedo's not hitting the ball with authority, and Lillibridge has a higher OPS in the majors. Hmmm....

I wish we had Tmar...he is not just a singles hitter. And he has many hunnies...he's quite the player.

She's just having a tough time converting from a Chinese actress to an American one...like Ziyi Zhang, she's been rejected by a lot of her countrymen for "selling out" and also appearing in Playboy, among other things. I think she is talented when speaking Chinese as her first language, but converting isn't very easy. Look at the struggle of Penelope Cruz...except she receives an Academy Award for being unintelligible and "cute."

State of Play 3.5 stars Sunshine Cleaning 3.5 stars (well, I'm a sucker for Emily Blunt and Alan Arkin, poor man's Little Miss Sunshine) Crank 2 2.75 It's really hard to rank Crank 2 quantitatively. It's really out there...with some stuff meant to press some buttons. The visual style is very unique and distinctive, for sure. The only thing that really annoyed me was Bai Ling as a crack whore...she has more talent than that as an actress. Of course, she was supposed to be a "stereotype" and give the SE Asian version of Bobby Jindal, but c'mon. You can use her more inventively...and Bai Ling, it wouldn't hurt to gain a little weight! To be honest, I liked the first Crank quite a bit better. The concept/idea was very unique at the time, and the "heroes" and "villains" were more clear. I wish Statham would take a little time to get away from his bread and butter (Transporter, Death Race, Crank) and do more movies with depth like The Bank Job. He literally seems to "crank" out those action movies that do fairly well in the US (they definitely have a niche audience) and also very well internationally...I know that last year all of his movies came out in Thailand almost right away. He's very well liked in the Asian market. BA can only hope to have as many hunnies as Statham.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 20, 2009 -> 07:42 PM) Link Why was Owens allowed to get so close to the president? Surely "the curse" (of his ineptitude) will be passed on to Obama? I thought the Secret Service did better background checks? After he's released later this week, Obama can send him with George Mitchell to Evin Prison in Tehran to negotiate the release of Ms. Saberi, a former Miss North Dakota. There's something in the Constitution about no former Miss America or Miss USA pageant contestants being held in notorious prisons like Evin in North Tehran. Especially half Iranian, half Japanese ones. Yes, Jermaine Dye is huge, he's a legit 6'5". Would have been hilarious if Ozzie brought some tea bags just to mess with Obama...seems like something only he could get away with.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 20, 2009 -> 07:27 PM) So you are saying assists don't measure anything then mention the number of assists Anderson has. That coupled with your observation that because he has been taking pitches that are balls is going to cause his strikeout rate to rise makes me wonder if you can really objectively look at Brian Anderson. While Anderson might not have the traditional "gun" in the OF, it is plenty strong enough. He is also very accurate and gets himself in position to make the proper throws. I really don't think his defense is something even his biggest detractors can argue. 1) Can we really argue that ST assist totals create a theorem that BA has a "great" or "plus" arm? 2) I never, once....on any message board...have said that Anderson doesn't play "good/great" defense. I just don't believe his throwing arm (or Rowand's for that matter) were/are so great. Anderson's is stronger than Rowand...and he doesn't overthrow so many balls into the mound or balls that bouce 5-6 times b4 they get to home plate, but he's just not very accurate usually. 3) If he doesn't swing at the first couple of pitches...good MLB pitchers will pick up on that and carve him apart. In the Rays' series, I suppose we can just go with another theory that BA "got lucky" never to receive first pitch strikes and got ahead in counts and was able to get some walks and a few scratch singles. Relying on that to continue won't/can't be a "new" offensive theory...as BA down 0-1 or 0-2 usually equals death by lethal injection for baserunners.

At the rate things are going, they might be suggesting a position change in the minor leagues for Ramirez. I wouldn't be shocked to see him sent to BIRM to play CF if his problems continue for 2-3 more weeks. Viciedo is also struggling mightily in his adjustment to American baseball...but it's just 40 at-bats for both of them. Seems that most Latin players really struggle in April in the cold weather. The question is, of course, who would play SS? Lillibridge? Getz, Nix and Betemit aren't capable of playing that position on an everyday basis for long stretches of time, and you'd have to think the chances of Alexei coming out of it are greater than Lillibridge putting up an 800 OPS from here on out. A lot of it will depend upon the standings. If we're in hailing distance of first place, they will continue to be patient with Beckham and let him develop defensively.

Nix just had an RBI...3-1 Barons into the 5th. Beckham is 1 for 3 and Shelby has two walks. David Cook has an RBI triple. Ely pitching pretty decently so far tonight. FWIW, Jacksonville is 8-2 and has been the best team in the Southern League up til this point in the season. Ely just got tagged for a 3 run homer off the scoreboard...4-3 JAX going into the bottom of the 5th. Good game. BTW, have a game Ben Gordon. Flowers with infield single to left side, Allen double, Cruz 3/3...2 rbi single up the middle for Nix gives him three RBI's for the game, 7-4 Barons, two on for Beckham. Three run, bases clearing double (second hit of the inning) puts the Barons up 10-4...7 runs scored in the inning with Allen up, Beckham had walked. All runs scored with 2 outs. Top of the 7th...Nix and Beckham are put on the bench for Hudson and Retherford.

When is the last time that assists from the outfield measured anything, usually, but the worst outfield arms or defenders that were constantly challenged by opposing 3B coaches like Carlos Lee or Alphonso Soriano? C'mon. I realize Rowand and Anderson are like Immortals to some here, but this is getting ridiculous...above-average arm strength has magically morphed into something more than it is. Brian Anderson has all of 4 outfield assists in 244 games played in his career. Lance Johnson had 11 assists in 1991 and 1992. One Dog had one of the worst arms in the history of the game...rivaling Juan Pierre, Jerry Owens, Scott Podsednik and Johnny Damon. To have a "plus" arm on the traditional scouting scale, you'd have to be at 60+. There is no way that Brian Anderson has a plus arm...maybe 50 or 55, but not a 60 or above for his position.

If we do bring up Nix, where/how is he going to play at all? He'll be behind Betemit on the PH list...and Nix can't play any other positions on the field besides 2B. We're not thinking of benching Ramirez or sending him to Charlotte, and Getz can't play SS more than "adequately," so I'm not sure how he (Nix) fits. If he sits on the bench like Betemit, his hitting won't be much of a weapon at all, because he has missed so many ST at-bats and now he'll just be playing his first games in a month...

I'll wait for the sacrifices and great throws, although I might be waiting a while on Anderson to produce those. Some people thought Rowand was a good thrower, when he was a really average arm. Anderson is above average, but he's far from Larry Walker or Roberto Clemente.

If you offer MacDougal arbitration, you're locked in paying him a minimum of $2.12 million next year. Based on the last couple of seasons (and the caveat, everything can and will change...), there's no way they won't wash their hands of him.

Shelby and Danks (when he's theoretically eligible to be traded) probably wouldn't be the centerpieces of any trade...they are closer to Michael Morse than Olivo or Reed (at the time of the trade, when he was named minor league player of the year by some publications). If we're to make a blockbuster move, it probably will be Poreda + Shelby + one more piece (#11-20 prospect). Lillibridge and Nix won't bring us anything back in return. Among that core group of Fields, Viciedo, Allen, Beckham and Flowers, you have to figure at least two will either be traded or not make it with the Sox as "impact/starting" players over the long-term.

Well, people are already starting to get on Fields for not hitting any homers (although one or maybe both of his triples so far would have been out of Comiskey on any summer day without a gale force wind blowing in or across). The thing is, everyone was "hopefully optimistic" Anderson could get up to a 300 OBP. Now we're talking 350? The biggest problem with this approach is that he will start to get a reputation for NOT swinging early in counts...he will get down 0-1 and 0-2, and then his K rate will dramatically escalate. Anderson has been making decent contact...Fields is the one whose swing is getting bigger and he's looking more like a slugger in terms of his K numbers without any homers to back it up. As long as Josh has his share of doubles and triples, it would be okay if he only hit 15-18 homers...but I think many were expecting 25-30-35 homers, a .230-.240 average and 300 OBP. I think May will be a good test for Anderson, Ramirez and Fields. To see what kind of hitters they're really going to evolve into...April is too difficult, with the inconsistent weather, domes, rain, sleet....Chicago and Detroit weather.

But you know KW...John Shelby III might become the "poor man's Chris Young" and be featured (unfairly) as one of our future stars. Hopefully, he'll get lost in the Beckham, Flowers, Allen and Viciedo spotlight and be able to fly under the radar a bit with Jord. Danks. I know Scenario really really likes Shelby, but I haven't seen enough of his swing in person to give an opinion whether it would hold up against major league pitching or not. The strikeouts and walks are 2 things to look at....for sure.

John Shelby III, if he really has a good season this year, could force his way into the club's plans for 2010 too...there's no solid consensus that Jordan Danks is actually a better prospect than Shelby. Many scouts think Shelby might have an even higher upside, they're probably the two most athletic players in our entire system.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Apr 20, 2009 -> 07:41 AM) 1. Using RBI's as a measure of performance is silly, since it is dependent on others. 2. Brian has plenty of power, but right now is focusing first on making good contact and being selective on pitches - which is EXACTLY what he should be doing to get himself into a rhythm. Once that becomes natural, the power will return. This is sort of basic hitting stuff - you cannot power your way into contact, but you can contact you way into power. 3. 740? He has to have a 740 OPS to be valuable? Where do you get that magic number from? And further, since most of his competition (Wise, Owens) would be lucky to get a .700 OPS much less .740, and Brian has superior defense, I'd say he's valuable even at a much lower level. Then how do you explain Uribe's consistent performance in hitting about 20 homers and 70 rbi's? Or AJ Pierzynski's numbers? As far as the 740 OPS, I think that is based on not being in the bottom 25% or 33% of ML CFers....break even point for a CF to be considered below average offensively.

Dye and Thome...maybe one will be back, as the primary DH, but at a much reduced price...certainly not $12-13 million. If Dye is back, it should be as a full-time DH, and I'm not sure he is quite yet ready to give up OF play. Maybe the idea situation would be for him to share/split time with Brandon Allen next year and also some time in the outfield as a "transition" year in his career. Konerko could DH and/or Allen could play 1B against the really tough righties. Dotel...10-15% chance of return, with his contract not looking like much of a bargain, the odds are we won't offer arbitration...unless he just has an incredible year and stays healthy. Contreras...5-10% chance of return MacDougal...1-2% (you can never rule anything out 100% with this guy, they seem bound and determined to keep giving him chances, so there's always the possibility he figures things out for at least a half season, like Politte did)