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Everything posted by caulfield12
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Outside the Box: Trade Cease+ for Daulton Varsho+
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Still not proposing your own trade. You’re doing another Hahn. Merely looking at Benintendi’s 2022 or Pollock’s last year in LA and not the full context of the overall decline in numbers over a 3-4 year period. The same thing as acquiring the two hottest prospects in Moncada and Kopech…but missing on Devers, who has his own set of limitations but can at the very least hit consistently enough to be rewarded with a massive contract extension. (Of course the really smart GM/ownership group rewards the much more valuable player in Betts instead of cutting costs.) If the White Sox can’t consistently develop prospects…then at least they are far better off trying to “fix” players with proven talent at the big league level, but they have hardly proved capable of doing that, either. It’s almost impossible to find players with three or more years of control with a minimum 4.5-4.8 fWAR or above peak because those players are ordinarily never made available. Maybe Varsho fails to exceed a 3.0 a fWAR for the remainder of his career (another Moncada bust), but we have two of our top executives now in Barfield and his assistant who are paid to know the answer. Just like we have half the Royals’ front office and coaching staff but not the individual responsible from poaching Ragans from the Rangers for Chapman…a #30 pick in the first round who throws as hard or harder than Cease Kopech Santos. “Ragans has posted an underwhelming 5.32 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 51:30 K:BB in 64.1 career major-league innings after undergoing two Tommy John surgeries. has posted an underwhelming 5.32 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 51:30 K:BB in 64.1 career major-league innings after undergoing two Tommy John surgeries.” “Multiple quality pitches, and one very solid out pitch plus limiting hard contact/barrels is a very good recipe for success. The only thing I am worried about at this point is his elbow. It has blown out twice before, and he is sustaining way higher velocities deep into games. He topped out at 98.7 mph on Tuesday and was sitting 94 to 98 the whole way. That is a tick down from the previous start, and I would like to see him not max out all the time. When he popped the 101 against the A’s visions of Jacob deGrom flashed in my head. Given the eye test and underlying stats, it is hard to see how Cole Ragans is not at least a number two starter if he can maintain the velocity and stuff he has shown so far as a Royal. Injury and regression are, unfortunately, constants in the pitching world from year to year however. Either way, the fact that the Royals identified him, traded for him, improved him, and unleashed him on their foes is a really good sign that the pitching development team is more competent than we have seen in quite some time. Now if they can just find a couple more starters like this maybe next year could avoid being a disaster again.” https://www.royalsreview.com/2023/8/31/23852872/cole-ragans-has-the-stuff https://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article278117072.html The problem is the scout and GM who targeted him are still with the Royals…and our scouting tree has withered on the vine until just this offseason. And we still don’t cover the Pacific Rim well enough…some SoxTalk posters know more about it from actually watching games than Haber’s CPU and algorithms could analyze and assess correctly. You have to consistently find bargains and buy low on players who could potentially be stars. That’s how they succeeded in the 2000s, it simply wasn’t sustainable long-term. -
John Brebbia signs with Sox, Romy DFA'd/claimed by Red Sox
caulfield12 replied to Fielder Jones's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Which means they are four years away and maybe three if they’re extremely lucky and a lot of breaks go their way with prospect development and 2024-25 drafts. -
Outside the Box: Trade Cease+ for Daulton Varsho+
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I’ll give you the entire weekend to make your own trade proposal. Mine is Cease, Santos (and maybe Kopech) for Daulton Varsho AND any of the 6 prospect names (obviously 1/6, not all 6) I listed OR Alex Manoah. Prospect coming back would determine if Kopech would be included or held for TDL move based on his first half results. Am forced to take on a high/extreme amount of risk because we don’t have four big trades to make and a series of Top 5 picks, we have just two trades (Cease/Robert, if he stays healthy) and a first rounder that could easily be blown. -
Outside the Box: Trade Cease+ for Daulton Varsho+
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Kenny Williams at least used to be able to find these players. You never buy a mutual fund or ETF like ARK just because it was #1 for a year, like Benintendi in his own way or Grandal or whomever…but the majority just chase that performance and get killed buying at peak. Tell me which TWO players that Getz is going to get that will be able to put up 4.5 to 5.0 fWAR seasons with absokute certainty that are available? Tell me which players that Getz added so far are even going to get to a 3.0 fWAR with the White Sox? I will wait for a result that you can never provide. It’s the exact reason that Elias will not make the trade…because the 6-7 year value their Top 5-6 prospects could provide supercedes two years of Cease that have a lot of risk attached. All the teams that have recently tried to rush their rebuilds with veterans got burned. Elias went to Yale, smart guy, he’s going to ride this out with the prospects he already knows and believes in…the rest will be trade material, the Ortizes and Norbys. -
Outside the Box: Trade Cease+ for Daulton Varsho+
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war?season=2022 Can anyone else find a player 27 years or under with a 4.5+ fWAR in EITHER of the last two seasons currently available in trade AND with three or more years of control remaining? Interestingly, Monoah’s name shows up in this mix here at 4.1. Adames sort of comes close. Cal Raleigh unavailable. He’s 27. -
Outside the Box: Trade Cease+ for Daulton Varsho+
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Most importantly, can block the Orioles, lol. Joking, I think. But can anyone, starting with Getz, trust the White Sox hitting coaches to fix him??? https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/examining-blue-jays-of-varshos-early-season-issues-with-high-velocity-pitches/# -
Lots of rumors the Blue Jays are unhappy with him…and might be available in trade. He has one more year of control than Cease. Buying low. Daulton peaked at 4.8 fWAR just two seasons ago and in the prime of his career. Everyone in baseball wanted him at that point. Versatility and athleticism, etc. Likely less injury risk attached than holding Cease. Now you need to get two players for one to make this really benefit the Sox…and equalize the trade. So my first thought was send over Manoah as well…Bannister will fix him. High risk, high reward there in buying low twice…with Cease’s value also down. But it came down to either Orelvis Martinez, Arjun Nimmala, Alan Roden, Addison Barger, Davis Schneider or Brandon Berriera (yet another back end starter projection) as the second piece to make this work from the Getz standpoint. That leaves Toronto needing more. A healthy Gregory Santos (this would have to take place mid Spring Training) just might be enough to push it through. Or Kopech. Or both. Toronto gets the best available pitcher on the market with Burnes out and the White Sox can maybe sorta jump start the rebuild by getting a potentially star quality player in Varsho with more control…buying low. Of course both sides hope for increases in value with Varsho (paid a high price in trade) and White Sox similarly with Cease if they hold onto them. White Sox also won’t or can’t trade Robert until TDL or next offseason. Having another position player would be the better risk since Cease has had one TJ previously and has pitched a ton since…had that 1.5 mph velo decline, etc. The durability positive almost makes you think that has to fall apart soon since it’s the White Sox after all. Everything that can go wrong will go wrong, right? Shortening the rebuild for current players vs. future prospects is definitely a risk for sure. Toronto really needs to win THIS year, though. The question is whether they believe Cease and Santos/Kopech would be better than Varsho and shedding a future prospect to get that accomplished. They also have Ricky Tiedemann to insert into that rotation behind Gausman.
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John Brebbia signs with Sox, Romy DFA'd/claimed by Red Sox
caulfield12 replied to Fielder Jones's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Yet almost every acquisition this offseason is the same age or older… -
JOC Pederson to D-Backs, $9.5 million/1 year deal
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Pederson will reportedly get $9.5M for 2024, and there is a mutual option at $14M for 2025. I guess this means Tommy Pham isn't going back to Arizona. But it would be great drama if he did and they are still in the same fantasy football league. (Edited) Clearly, once again, Joc got Tommy’s money…LOL Well played sir. The fantasy football aspect of that story was super interesting, if you're into fantasy football. It was very much like any fantasy league you are in with your buddies where person A thinks person B is doing something shady. Except person A doesn't sucker punch person B the next time they see them in person. And the commish of the league with you and your buddies probably isn't Mike Trout. gaslampball.com -
John Brebbia signs with Sox, Romy DFA'd/claimed by Red Sox
caulfield12 replied to Fielder Jones's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Remember when Burger at 26 was too old for the next competitive window? -
Hicks and Eddie Rosario. Merrifield. Naquin already rejected, seemingly.
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Knowing Boras, it will go into the spring since they’re $50-75 million apart on Snell offers and what he targeted as their values. Maybe as much as $240 vs $140 million spreads. Another team will suffer an injury in ST…and teams will feel time pressure of not starting the pitcher on a routine too late and Snell or Montgomery being more susceptible to an early season injury trying to catch up too fast.
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Sure, but 2-3 more off the wall options like Domingo German are now coming into play. It’s much better for them to spend $5ish million or less and try to simply get through the first half on the backs of their offense and a massive jump forward from Grayson Rodriguez. They simply will not bend on 2/3 out of Cowser Kjerstad and Westburg. Starting to believe that not even Mayo is in play. But two of those guys and one third piece (Bradfield, Hall, etc.) would be more than enough to get it over the finish line tonight. So it keeps coming back to that second piece not being enough for Getz.
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Basallo and Holliday seem to be completely off limits. One area to agree with their posters.
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https://www.foxnews.com/sports/yankees-supposedly-asked-ex-outfielder-give-up-golf-injuries-former-mlb-player-says Just let Hicks play all the golf he wants in Chicago. Interesting that AJ Perzynski was somehow involved in breaking this story, but he’s an avid golfer as well. “According to former MLB catcher A.J. Pierzynski, the Yankees may have had a problem with Hicks competing in the offseason Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions, where he placed eighth on the celebrity leaderboard after his performance last weekend. “I don’t know if this is true or not, but Aaron Hicks used to play in this event a few years ago, and the Yankees told him he had to stop because they thought that’s why he was getting injured,” Pierzynski said on the “Foul Territory” show Thursday. “I don’t know if that’s true or not, but there was a rumor about that they told him he had to stop playing golf.” nypost.com
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This didn’t age well last year… Sixty three games into his career with the Blue Jays, his OPS in Toronto (.774) is actually higher than it was in Kansas City (.758). "He's doing what he's done his whole career," manager John Schneider said earlier this week. "Before we (acquired him) last year was a little bit of a rough stretch, but I think what we're seeing is just an all-star player hitting his stride." With a 15.6 per cent strikeout rate, Merrifield's making lots of contact. And while his sprint speed has dropped off slightly over the years, he's still faster than the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr., Brandon Nimmo and Anthony Volpe, allowing him to turn borderline plays into hits. Now granted, this current level of production may not last. Merrifield is 34, and his current batting average and on-base percentage would be career highs. But as long as he’s playing this well, he belongs in the starting lineup most days. https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-notebook-whit-merrifield-quietly-becoming-everyday-option/
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John Brebbia signs with Sox, Romy DFA'd/claimed by Red Sox
caulfield12 replied to Fielder Jones's topic in Pale Hose Talk
You’re forgetting Remillard and Jose Rodriguez promoted in the same way… -
JOC Pederson to D-Backs, $9.5 million/1 year deal
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Still hoping for Michael Taylor and the all-defense team…just to see what happens. Fealty to former Royals as well. Merrifield will come into play as a favor to someone. -
JOC Pederson to D-Backs, $9.5 million/1 year deal
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Just testing, since everyone knows by the spelling of Pederson like that around baseball. -
Significant falls in the AL Central outside of KC and Cleveland, where a slight upswing would be erased by the trade of Bieber at any point this season. Obviously the Padres trying to get down to the $200ish million range.
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Straight to the Orioles...to infinity and beyond.
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Like Puig and Clemente, lol?
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Better off comparing him to Basallo...and the likelihood of sticking at their intended positions, 3B and C? SportsGuy has already presented his slanted or biased report on Mayo's future abilities to play a corner OF spot, especially his "surprising" speed that's not a quick speed but more about top speed after he gets going like Avi Garcia.
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https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39389218/diamondbacks-joc-pederson-agree-1-year-95-million-deal
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Did Grady Fuson do this with Paul DiPodesta in real life...?
