Ozzie Ball

Dan Hudson sporting the insane 30/2 K/BB rate on the year. He's good.

QUOTE (bighurt4life @ Apr 26, 2009 -> 10:59 PM) I believe that he was drafted by us as a draft-and-follow player (whatever the hell that means) the previous season. FYI, he is the brother of Nationals 1B Eli Marrero The draft and follow rule isn't in place any more but it used to be that you could draft a player who would be attending junior college but you didn't have to sign him until a week before the next years draft, essentially allowing you to 'follow' the player for a year before having to decide if you wanted to sign him or not. I believe we gave Marrero a $120k bonus but I can remember where I read it.

QUOTE (mmmmmbeeer @ Apr 20, 2009 -> 06:38 AM) With the risk of pissing off TCQ by diverting attention from his awesomeness, I saw a pre-season interview with Paulie where he stated that he started his offseason training/workouts a few weeks earlier this year than any other year....looks like it may be paying dividends. Or it's just the case of his ridiculously low BABIP from the last two seasons righting itself. If he had even a league average BABIP last year his line would have been something like; .290/.395/.500, where's the regression in that? I loved Paulie as a bounce back candidate because of the previously mentioned reason and thus far he's making me look pretty good.

Birmingham scoring 5 runs against a Papelbon. Love it.

No strike out for Danks today, that must be a first.

QUOTE (BearSox @ Apr 16, 2009 -> 11:35 PM) Come on now, there have been several relief pitchers taken in the 1st round. You just have to choose the right one. If you got a college closer who pumps it up at 97+ with some movement and a nasty slider, and they project to make it to the bigs quickly... why the hell not? Because the value of even the best relievers is so much less than the value of a solid starter. Even if the college closer because the best closer in all of baseball he'd still only be worth 2.5-3 value wins per season, whereas there were roughly 60 starters who were worth 2.5 value wins or more last year including 4/5 of our rotation (it would have been 5/5 of our rotation of Count didn't get injured). In the first round I think you have to draft a pitcher who at least has a chance of being a starter a la Poreda, and then if he doesn't develop as planned you move him to the 'pen. Building for the future and drafting college relievers in the first round are contradictory statements in my opinion and personally I'd lay off the relievers until at least round 3.

Here are some prospects that I like that I wrote about for another forum I use: The first two, at this point, look like they should be available when we pick. Rich Poythress, 1B/3B, Georgia Former team mate of Beckham's, Poythress is a big first baseman measuring in at 6-4, 240, which will probably restrict him to playing 1B (where he won a gold glove last season). He's on fire at the plate and appears to be hitting his way into the first round batting .430/.528/.852 through 135 AB's with 16 home runs and a 26/18 BB/SO rate. He did miss five months of his freshman year with an ACL injury would could be a red flag. James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky Paxton has a big 94-97mph fastball with heavy sink and a great frame at 6-4, 210, he also throws a nasty sluvey curve in the 80-83mph range and has been working on a change up. He's been hit hard in his last two starts which has inflated his ERA and overall on the season in 37 IP he has a 6.08 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and a phenomenal 55/8 K/BB rate. PGCrosschecker thinks Paxton could go in the high first round but most other publications have him more in the late 1st/supplemental 1st or even 2nd round range. And the third could/should be available a little later on. Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College The top collegiate catcher in the draft, he's off to a fast start hitting .385/.474/.738 through his first 130 AB's although he'll probably be more of a doubles guy than a home run threat at the pro level. He's an aggressive hitter with a short compact swing which will probably mean he won't walk or strike out at high rate at the next level. He's a decent receiver with average arm strength. Upside is limited due to lack of home run power or elite level defense, I wouldn't spend more than our supplemental 1st on him at this point but I would be all over him in the 2nd round. Baseball America think he could slide into the end of the first. What I'd be looking for from our early picks in this draft is high upside college starting pitching and big college bats at any position other than middle infield. Our system took big strides forward over the last year but even still I don't think we're in a position to take unnecessary risks on high school players in the early rounds.

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune....ports_hardball/

QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Apr 15, 2009 -> 02:47 PM) Dobrow's Power Rankings on CBSsports (which I found about on the Score yesterday, they're great)..... indicates he's below average as a CF Below average would be putting it mildly. Career in CF; -17.2 UZR (153 games) Career in OF; -25.3 UZR (242 games) That averages out at -14.3 UZR per 150 games. Last year he ranked dead last in CF among qualifying players with a -18.5 UZR. In other words... he's atrocious.

Nice to see that Seth Loman's still around, I thought they may have released him.

Not sure if this has been posted before but it's a video of Harper crushing balls in the Trop, admittedly it's with an aluminium bat, but even still, it's pretty f***ing impressive.

QUOTE (SouthsideDon48 @ Mar 4, 2009 -> 06:57 PM) I don't see why we can't just move Alexei back to 2nd base when Beckham is ready to come up to the majors. It's not like Alexei is gonna forget how to play 2nd, and he was pretty good there last year. He had a -6.9 UZR last season ranking him 14th out of the 16 qualifying 2B's, he made some flashy plays but on the whole was significantly below average.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Mar 4, 2009 -> 02:07 PM) It's practically impossible to rig the draft lottery. It's a combination of balls that are randomly selected and there are several impartial observers. Shushhh... stop letting facts get in the way of people's wild thoughts and accusations.

Top 100 Prospects, Inside The Numbers Stats on where the Top 100 come from BY ORGANIZATION 7 Athletics, Rangers 6 Marlins 5 Braves, Rays 4 Orioles, White Sox, Indians, Brewers, Mets, Phillies, Giants, Mariners 3 Red Sox, Rockies, Royals, Twins, Yankees, Pirates, Cardinals, Blue Jays 2 Diamondbacks, Cubs, Reds, Angels, Dodgers 1 Tigers, Astros, Padres, Nationals BY ORIGINAL ORGANIZATION 8 Braves 7 White Sox 5 Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Mariners, Rays 4 Mets, Yankees, Giants, Rangers 3 Diamondbacks, Orioles, Red Sox, Rockies, Tigers, Dodgers, Twins, Cardinals, Blue Jays 2 Cubs, Reds, Indians, Royals, Angels, Athletics, Pirates 1 Astros, Padres, Nationals http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...009/267705.html

QUOTE (chwhtsox @ Feb 14, 2009 -> 06:31 PM) If the money is because of defense then why not pay BA 14.7 mil and be done with it? It's crazy to think I know, but saving a run on defense is actually worth the same as creating a run on offense. And I know the BA comment wasn't serious but I'm going to dismantle it anyway. Last season Brian had a UZR of 0.2 and even projected out over 150 games his UZR would have only been 1.0. Over Brian's career in CF he has a +4.3 UZR (200+ games) and going by the same system the valued Harris' 2008 at $14m+, Brian, over his whole career, has had a total value of $0.

QUOTE (rowand's rowdies @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 08:51 PM) I've seen that a few times, if those were his stats (I didn't check), that sure doesn't match up. But, I still do like platooning him with BA more than Owens/BA/Wise. Wise is a nice 5th OF, and Owens is a AAA solid starter/pinch runner. Plus, WE NEED WILLY! The $14.6m value is correct, his value is that high because of his defense (+17.9 UZR) as opposed to his offense where he was worth around 4 runs above average.

I'll kick some in for Ozzie's page if it hasn't been covered already.

QUOTE (fathom @ Feb 2, 2009 -> 02:45 AM) If you believe KW, everyone has been wrong so far. AJP will bat 2nd again. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,5416853.story How can we be wrong when constructing our lineups?

Assuming we don't bring in any new players: 1B- Konerko DH- Thome CF- Alexei LF- Quentin RF- Dye C- Fields 2B- Getz 3B- Pierzynski SS- Lillibridge OF- Anderson OF- Owens/Wise INF- Betemit C- Corky Miller??? SP- Buehrle SP- Floyd SP- Danks SP- Colon SP- Richard/Marquez/Poreda/Broadway CL- Jenks SU- Linebrink RP- Dotel RP- Thornton RP- Richard/Marquez RP- Russell/Poreda/whoever else

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Jan 31, 2009 -> 12:33 AM) boy i can't wait to read all of the "i knew Jerry Owens was good" comments on the board, when he hits .280 with a .345 OBP and 50SB next year if he wins the starting job. those numbers, by the way, are basically his 2nd half 2007 numbers factored out for an entire year. Would that really be considered good though? .345 OBP, .350 SLG (if we're lucky), that would be good for Owens but it's still not a good player.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 27, 2009 -> 03:38 PM) this is also where I think speed is essential. Even if a guy gets on base at a good rate, will it take 3 consecutive hits to score him? This is a problem that results in "lack of hitting in the clutch." If this same player can score from first on a double, this team will have a more diverse and effective offense. It doesn't need to be the leadoff hitter but one of the players in the 1 or 2 position needs to have speed, because once it's JD, Thome and Konerko come up, it will take a HR or three hits to score them. I've always thought speed was overrated and no way see it as being essential in any spot in the lineup, I'd take a player with a high OBP and no speed over a player with a low OBP and lots of speed any day. Lineup construction is interesting to think about though and just recently I finished reading Tom Tango (and others') The Book and there's a chapter devoted to lineup construction, from their research they came to the conclusion that the optimal lineup would be set out as follows: 1. Your best three hitters hit in the 1, 2 and 4 holes with your best hitter batting 4th, second best hitter batting 2nd and third best hitter (or a hitter with high OBP) batting 1st. 2. Your fourth and fifth best hitter bat 3rd and 5th, with the fourth best hitter batting 5th and the fifth best hitter batting 3rd. 3. The rest of your hitters bat, in order from best to worst, in the 6-9 holes. So based on that our optimal lineup last season would have been: 1. Konerko 2. Thome 3. Alexei 4. Quentin 5. Dye 6. Crede (when healthy) 7. Swisher 8. A.J. 9. Cabrera 9b. Uribe (when Crede wasn't healthy, moving everyone else up one spot). Obviously this lineup would go against all conventional thinking and I'm not saying this is how I would construct my lineup but it is interesting to think about.

QUOTE (santo=dorf @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 11:00 PM) Why is it "his BA was low because his BABIP was low," and not "his BABIP was low because his BA was low." Swisher does have control over his batting average, it is not completely random. His approach at the plate sucked. If it's so impossibly unlucky for Swisher to have the season he did last year, how was it Konerko put up a better line despite having a higher LD% and LOWER BABIP??? All his other percentages (LD%, FB%, GB%, IF%) all stayed around his career average yet his BABIP dropped 55 points, that's something a hitter can't control hence the "his BA was low because his BABIP was low."

QUOTE (santo=dorf @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 05:19 PM) How many Sox games do you watch across the pond? I have mlb.tv so quite a lot, I probably saw about 100 live games last season and another 20-30 on archive.

I was looking over the rosters recently and I came to the conclusion that this division is really, really bad. Just two years ago it looked like the strongest division in all of baseball (just about), but now it's full of mediocre teams and the Kansas City Royals. Personally I can't see any way in which the Twins will be able to hit .313 (or whatever ridiculously high number it was) with RISP again and therefore they are set to fall back to earth, the Tigers' pitching still isn't strong enough, we have holes all over the place and the Royals are the Royals... the Tribe win it by default.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 03:47 AM) LOL. You say that like it's nothing. Does a CF have to be a combination of prime Willie Mays and Ken Griffey Jr. to impress people around here? The guy is young, athletic, has plus power/speed/defense (many believe Young should've won a GG last year). And most importantly room to grow. I'd gladly live with the K's and low OBP considering all the other things he provides. In the last three years, we've trotted out Brian Anderson, Rob Mackowiak, Darin Erstad, Jerry Owens, Luis Terrero, Nick Swisher, and a 7-8 years past his prime Griffey Jr. to CF. And we've got people harpin' on Young's K rates in a futile attempt to make the trade not look as bad? Amazing. His defense really isn't that good, for his career his UZR is -1.8 and last season it was +1 which ranked him 13th among CF's with at least 500 innings of play, (Carlos Gomez led all centre fielders at +17). That being said he was still more deserving of the gold glove than Nate McClouth was, McClouth had a UZR of -15.3 last season ranking him dead last among centre fielders, I believe he was also a -30 going by John Dewans +/- system surely making him one of the worst GG winners of all time. As for the second bold point Nick Swisher is a much better player than Young right now, he was just very unlucky last season, his line drive % stayed at a reasonable 19.3% but his BABIP plummeted 55 points and was 50 points lower than league average, that's not just unlucky, that's catastrophically unlucky. Nick's going to bounce back next season (given the appropriate amount of playing time) to post his usual .850 OPS and show Kenny just how bad that trade was. I'd take him back here as our centre fielder in a second.